Love articles by Meisel.

Hoynes' articles tells you what he saw. Meisel tells you what he's thinking

I have no reason to worry about Rosario's offense; as pointed out he has a history of story slowly and he has a very consistent final season line.

Oscar Gonzalez is another story. He had not had a good season in the minors since Rookie ball and he was constantly left off 40 man rosters and never got picked in Rul3 5 draft. Everyone was thrilled with his offense last summer but his poor pitch selectivity made him a real risk to not repeat his rookie year. He was weak in spring training, he's lost his job to Brennan, and I foresee him losing his backup spot to Richie Palacios who is hitting very well in Columbus

If and when they decide to move Rosario, Bryan Rocchio is looking extremely good in Columbus too

Josh Naylor is disappointing. I thought he was ready to get to his full potential after his long recovery from the 2021 collision. If he can't hit lefties, someone needs to be the RH bat to platoon with him and it may not be Gabriel Arias.

There's nothing to dispute with Meisel and Lloyd on the starting pitching. All pretty obvious:
Bieber is an ace.
Quantrill is a back of the rotation who we can hope but not expect to pick up his game
Battenfield and Gaddis and Curry are unproven aspirants to be back of the rotation guys; perhaps solid starters for seccond-division teams.
McKenziie's return is vital.
Civale's return is unlikely
Bibee and Allen and Williams could all be in the rotation by the end of the season and until proven otherwise could be solid rotation members going forward. But Logan Sr. was promising for awhile too so we'll not know until they arrive
Espino's high end future is to duplicate McKenzie who missed lots of minor league time and ultimately got mostly healthy and broke through. His low end future is to be Brady Aiken and never be healthy

I again incorrectly identified Palacios as a RH batter a couple days ago and as a possible replacement for Oscar. Wrong Richie is another lefty.
The only right handed bat in the Columbus OF is Johnkennsy Noel but he's way too unpolished to be coming up to play part time in the majors.

So unless they are comfortbable with Arias in the OF, Oscar has no one to challenge his as the only RH OF on the roster.

What the Guardians’ call-up of Brayan Rocchio means for the prospect and the rotation

GOODYEAR, AZ - FEBRUARY 23: Infielder Brayan Rocchio (66) poses for a portrait during the Cleveland Guardians photo day on February 23, 2023 at Goodyear Ballpark in Goodyear, AZ. (Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
By Zack Meisel
Apr 19, 2023
11

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DETROIT — A couple of hours before first pitch in Detroit, a well-regarded shortstop prospect dragged a designer suitcase down a crowded hallway and into the visitors clubhouse at Comerica Park ahead of his major-league debut.

A few hours later on that June afternoon eight years ago, Francisco Lindor notched his first career hit after coming off the bench. He slapped a single to right field, tripped while rounding first base and then attempted to pin the blame on Miguel Cabrera.

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On Wednesday morning, shortstop Brayan Rocchio, who has drawn comparisons to Lindor during his ascent through the Guardians system, completed that same walk to the visitors clubhouse in Detroit. He paid manager Terry Francona a quick visit in his office and then proceeded to his locker, where a navy No. 6 uniform was hanging.


Lindor never returned to the minors after that day. Rocchio’s initial stay might be short-lived. The club summoned him from Triple-A Columbus because Amed Rosario and Tyler Freeman are dealing with injuries. This arrangement won’t be permanent. Cleveland is carrying 15 position players and 11 pitchers.

Rocchio, Rosario and Freeman all took infield practice on Wednesday morning. The team expects Rosario and Freeman will avoid trips to the injured list, but there’s a lot to sort out before Friday’s series opener against the Marlins at Progressive Field — and even more to configure after that.

Rocchio could return to Columbus by the weekend. Reliever Enyel De Los Santos will return from the paternity list on Friday and claim the spot of one of the stockpiled shortstops on the roster. At a minimum, though, the club feels this is a chance for Rocchio to get a brief taste of the majors, similar to how Gabriel Arias made a cameo in Cleveland for a doubleheader and his debut last April. It could also serve as an opportunity to motivate Rocchio as he bides his time behind Rosario, Arias and Freeman.

“He’s off to a good offensive and defensive start,” said general manager Mike Chernoff, “but I think we’re really looking for him to build in the consistency that we need to see in the major leagues in terms of effort on every single play and making those routine plays every single time.”

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Rocchio learned Tuesday night he was being promoted. He thought Triple-A manager Andy Tracy was pulling a prank on him, a fair assumption given Tracy’s history of toying with call-ups. Rocchio called his mom, who bawled on the beach, which Rocchio suggested was probably an odd scene for anyone basking in the sun who didn’t realize his mom was shedding tears of joy.

Rocchio has logged a .344/.414/.459 slash line for Columbus this season, with four stolen bases in as many attempts, and walk and strikeout rates that are of particular interest to an organization that emphasizes contact and plate discipline. He has totaled eight walks and nine strikeouts in 15 games.

He reached Triple A last season as a 21-year-old, which helps to explain why The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked him as the organization’s top prospect and the No. 22 prospect in the sport. Chernoff, though, cautioned “there’s still a lot of development he has to work on.” And, not sure if you’ve heard, but there’s a logjam in the middle infield.

Andrés Giménez will occupy one of the Guardians’ middle-infield spots for the duration of the decade. That leaves one starting job, which Rosario claims for now, with Arias and Freeman and, now, Rocchio all clawing for any leftover scraps. Presuming Rosario departs in free agency this winter, that could spark a healthy competition next spring.

The other side of this transaction equation might be more fascinating to follow. The Guardians optioned Hunter Gaddis to Triple A, which leaves them with a vacancy in the rotation.

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That prompts two questions: Who will fill that spot, and when will they fill it? The answer to the second question might dictate the answer to the first.

An off day Thursday allows the Guardians, if they so choose, to pitch Peyton Battenfield on Sunday and Cal Quantrill on Monday on regular rest. So, they wouldn’t need a starter until Tuesday. And that so happens to be Tanner Bibee’s day to pitch.

There are a bunch of variables in play, though. Don’t go customize a Bibee Guardians jersey just yet.

First, Xzavion Curry could receive some consideration, given how he’s fared as the team’s long reliever. He’s stretched out enough to give the Guardians five or six innings. Second, they might opt not to wait until Tuesday. If they prefer to tab Logan Allen for his debut, for instance, they could scratch him from his scheduled start for Columbus on Saturday and instead pitch him Sunday or Monday in Cleveland. Konnor Pilkington, who served as the team’s 27th man for its doubleheader Wednesday but did not pitch, is another option, though he’s had a wretched April in Columbus.


Will Logan Allen get the call? (Jayne Kamin-Oncea / USA Today)
Finally, the weather could interrupt this weekend’s series with the Marlins, which would add another wrinkle. The Guardians need to at least be prepared for the possibility of a postponement and a subsequent doubleheader.

“There’s a lot of moving pieces,” Chernoff said.

Battenfield has certainly earned further evaluation after a sterling start against Detroit on Wednesday. But it’s time for the club to turn to one of its heralded prospects, Allen or Bibee, for the open spot, whenever the opportunity arises.

“You have to make decisions on their readiness,” Chernoff said, “combined with the opportunity we have, and hope they continue developing while they’re up here.”

As for what the promotion means for Rocchio: he was optioned back the next day. We'll see him again later

for those who don't read the Minors folder:

Gavin Williams, RHP, Guardians: The Guardians top prospect went five no-hit innings, only allowing a single walk while striking out eight. It wouldn’t be shocking to see some movement in the Guardians rotation in the next week, which could mean Williams gets the bump up to Triple-A. In a system full of exciting pitching prospects and an organization known for its ability to develop starters, Williams, Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen stand out as part of the next wave of Cleveland pitchers.

Thanks civ!

The Guardians need more power, and need José Ramírez to supply it: Meisel’s Mailbag Apr 19, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez (11) hits a three run home run in the sixth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
By Zack Meisel
Apr 21, 2023


CLEVELAND — What was your favorite moment from Brayan Rocchio’s 24-hour tenure on the major-league roster?

Let’s get right to your questions (which have been edited for clarity).

José Ramírez ranks in the 28th percentile in barrel rate and (in the) 38th percentile in average exit velocity. Is he still battling lingering hand issues or is it more a player taking longer to get their timing down? Any long-term concerns? If José isn’t José, the offense clearly lacks a punch. — Josh C.

Josh submitted this question before Ramírez socked a three-run homer on Wednesday … but also before Ramírez recorded his first career four-strikeout game on Tuesday. So, my answer has evolved several times. The final sentence in his question is undeniable. But I’m not sure barrel rate and exit velocity always mirror Ramírez’s output.
Ramírez's barrel rate and exit velocity
2023

28th

38th
2022

39th

25th
2021

73rd

66th
2020

66th

47th
2019

33rd

50th
2018

59th

53rd
2017

35th

51st
2016

18th

38th

That’s a mixed bag. Sure, the harder he hits the ball and the more often he hits the ball hard, the better. That’s true of any player.

One thing that might be worth noting: Ramírez is seeing far fewer fastballs than he ever has.
Ramírez's percent of fastballs shown
2013

64.7
2014

70.2
2015

68.1
2016

61.8
2017

58.3
2018

53.5
2019

55.3
2020

51.0
2021

51.9
2022

50.8
2023

42.5

And that 42.5 percent number for 2023 has actually risen quite a bit in the last few days.

Everyone — pitchers, fans, my yellow lab — knows Ramírez loves yanking fastballs. Pitchers are instead tossing him tons of junk and, in response, he has demonstrated patience, with 12 walks. But he could demonstrate even more patience.
Ramírez's chase rate, by year
2016

66th
2017

79th
2018

90th
2019

83rd
2020

77th
2021

72nd
2022

55th
2023

44th

Even with that golden sombrero, Ramírez still ranks in the 81st percentile in walk rate and the 91st percentile in strikeout rate. (Those respective percentiles were 90th and 99th a couple of days ago.) But he can do a better job of forcing the pitcher to throw him the pitch he wants to hit.

Last year, once he injured his right hand, he seemed too eager, like he was overcompensating, and he fell into some bad habits. He refused to cite his injury as an excuse and declined to reveal how much it was hindering his swing, which made it difficult for us to evaluate his struggles.

The Guardians undoubtedly need more power. They need Ramírez to supply some of it.

Loved the Opening Day tribute, but is there any chance the team does something to keep a drummer in the ballpark? I know John Adams is irreplaceable, but I really miss the sound of that drumbeat, part of the fabric of Cleveland baseball. — Michael J.

They still have the Adams drumbeat soundtrack, recorded several years ago, but I agree: It’s not the same. More than anything, it’s weird to peer up at the top of the bleachers and not see the man in the white button-down shirt and jeans and his 26-inch drum. It would be fun to have a drummer rotation. Why not set up a schedule of people to pay tribute to Adams by drumming in that spot — at least for this season, the 50-year anniversary of the start of his tradition — like the club maps out national anthem singers and first-pitch throwers? Patrick Carney of the Black Keys for a postseason game. Nate Rosenhaus, the bat boy whose band, The Open Doors, received attention during last week’s Yankees series, for a Thursday afternoon game in June. The Solon Comets drum line for a weeknight affair around the time school starts in August.
go-deeper

GO DEEPER

John Adams and his drum provided the soundtrack to Cleveland baseball for nearly 50 years

Will Rocchio or Tyler Freeman replace Amed Rosario at shortstop this year? They each have an on-base percentage about double Rosario’s OBP. — Robert K.

The year is 2057. The Guardians’ Triple-A affiliate, the Northeast Mars Clippers, is comprised of only middle infielders and is managed by Tyler Freeman, the owner of a minor-league record 4,500 hits.

Rosario’s going to play. I wouldn’t hold your breath on him being replaced this season. But that competition next spring, presuming Rosario departs in free agency, should be fun to follow. Freeman’s offensive profile fits the club’s contact/speed identity, and Rocchio has demonstrated those qualities with Columbus this month, too. Gabriel Arias will factor into the equation. Of course, one of them could be traded this summer or winter.

Tanner Bibee: When? — Carson M.

Tanner Bibee. That’s it. That’s the question. — Nathan T.

Just a hunch here, but I think you’ll see Logan Allen first (though the schedule and Mother Nature could dictate things). Triston McKenzie is out until Memorial Day. Aaron Civale doesn’t yet have a timetable for his return. Sometimes, circumstances force you to make decisions earlier than you had anticipated. That doesn’t have to be a death sentence. Peyton Battenfield has fared pretty well in his two major-league outings and deserves a longer look, but Allen and Bibee are Top 100 prospects with higher ceilings. When they’re ready, they should be summoned. Allen has made 17 starts at Triple A. I’m just an idiot with a laptop, but he seems ready for a chance. And I don’t think Bibee’s far behind.

What would a realistic trade for future Guardian Bryan Reynolds cost? — Tyler R.

It feels like we’ve been discussing this for two years, which makes sense, considering Cleveland first inquired about Reynolds in the summer of 2021. But for the latest on Pittsburgh’s side of the equation, I requested input from our resident Pirates expert, Rob Biertempfel:

“The Bryan Reynolds Saga is turning out to be more fascinating than I ever expected. When he had that big season in 2021, I figured he’d soon be dealt for a couple of top-15 prospects. The dynamics now are different. Reynolds is under team control through 2025 and wants an extension, asking the Pirates for $100 million-plus with an opt out. That’s useful information to any club that hopes to acquire Reynolds with an eye toward extending him. Major-league sources say general manager Ben Cherington has set a high price for Reynolds via trade and that isn’t likely to change for now. How about future Pirates George Valera and Logan Allen for Reynolds?”

I think the Guardians would sign up for that swap. The Pirates are off to a blistering start, though. Maybe they’ll be buyers in July. (Doubt it.)

I already thought the three-catcher experiment would be over, but how much longer do you think it will last? I’ve got to think Richie Palacios would bring more value to that bench spot. — Tim T.

I think it’s on borrowed time. Manager Terry Francona has hinted as much. Meibrys Viloria has four plate appearances and has caught 15 innings through 19 games. I didn’t hate the idea, and I still wonder whether Palacios or someone else would get enough playing time to justify it, but the current arrangement just hasn’t had enough utility.

There seem to be reasonable comps for a Shane Bieber extension. Luis Castillo: 5 years, $108 million. Joe Musgrove: 5 years, $100 million. José Berríos: 7 years, $131 million. Why can’t (the Guardians and Bieber) find common ground? Do Bieber’s agents think they can get Gerrit Cole money (9 years, $324 million)? Are we on a slow march to him walking away after 2024? We can’t possibly trade him in a contention window. — Matthew H.

This will be the topic of the winter.

My sense is they’ve never come particularly close to finding common ground for an extension, at least not the last few springs. And it certainly doesn’t seem like they’re going to make headway now, with Bieber able to hear the engine of the Brinks truck as it rumbles toward his driveway.

Cole’s bounty seems high, but Bieber could land something in between that and what Castillo, Musgrove and Berríos netted. I could see a team giving him 7 years/$175 million or 8 years/$200 million, provided his production doesn’t wane the next two seasons. That team surely won’t be Cleveland. So, that leaves the Guardians in a weird spot.

Sure, they’ve traded starting pitchers who were on the doorstep of free agency. But they’ve done that when they were comfortable with their remaining rotation and were on the downswing of a contention window. This would be dealing their ace as they enter what should be their prime years of contention.

So, do they let him play out this season and next and then walk in free agency? Do they try to recoup some value for him in a trade and pray that some combination of Triston McKenzie/Cal Quantrill/Aaron Civale/Zach Plesac/ Logan Allen/Daniel Espino/Tanner Bibee/Gavin Williams can be a World Series-caliber rotation in 2024? That’s a lot to ask of a handful of inexperienced pitchers. Do they trade Bieber this winter and then also trade for someone else with more team control? There are a lot of avenues to consider, and a lot could hinge on the progress of the club’s group of top pitching prospects.
How does Shane Bieber stack up against the pitchers who have recently signed large contracts? (Geoff Burke / USA Today)

Do you sense any frustration among Guardians players/coaches with Mike Zunino’s inability to block balls in the dirt? Seems he’s being lazy and trying to backhand balls in the dirt rather than dropping to his knee. — Brian L.

“Lazy” isn’t a fair word there. “Lazy” would be nonchalantly retrieving the ball after it squirts away from him. But there are definitely some mechanics and approaches that need tweaking; that’s where Sandy Alomar Jr. can offer value as a coaching resource. Blocking metrics have not been favorable to Zunino. This isn’t new. And it’s certainly jarring with how often it has happened, especially given the team’s recent history of defensive stalwarts behind the plate. We’re in some bizarro world where Cleveland employs a catcher who’s delivering plenty at the plate, but is struggling behind it. To no surprise, pitchers have praised the catching group. They’re not going to throw their batterymates under the bus. But there’s a mental element to it. The Guardians’ starting staff isn’t exactly overpowering. They need to be able to throw a two-strike curveball with conviction, even if there’s a runner on third. At the moment, doing so carries more risk than it did in recent years.

The Guardians announced 18 charitable initiatives that players will participate in this season, nine of which are new. That seems like a pretty high number, and more than in seasons past. What do you feel is driving this shift toward more player involvement? — Nathan K.

I consulted Megan Ganser, manager of player engagement and family relations, for insight into the process:

“As part of one-on-one meetings with each player and coach in spring training, our community impact team has the opportunity to ask players what they’re passionate about as well as educate them about the needs of the Cleveland community. Many sit down at the table already knowing the causes dear to them. They work with our team to design their own player program. These players are human and they crave connection to their community. In many cases, they have experienced hardship on a personal level. The connection builds meaningful relationships and emotional ties to the city.”

With the early returns on rule changes being seemingly positive across fan bases, is it possible Cleveland can ever become a baseball city again? Or would it take a Browns moving type of event for that to even have a chance? Side question: How many true baseball cities (if any) are left in America? — Ben A.

I could devote an entire series of articles to these questions. I polled my colleagues about the last question, and the consensus is New York, Boston, Chicago and St. Louis all qualify as baseball towns. I think you could argue for Los Angeles, San Francisco and Milwaukee, too, but there are levels to this. Some cities fervently support multiple teams. Some cities would be baseball towns if not for management decisions. Detroit, for instance, boasted strong attendance numbers for more than a decade until a painful, botched rebuild sucked the life out of Comerica Park in recent years.

As for Cleveland, the act of pitting fans against each other is beyond tired, a lazy sports talk radio trope. Fans can support one team in town without sacrificing their support of another. Now, there’s finite disposable income to go around. That’s a different story, and it pertains to your question. Will MLB’s new rules help the Guardians draw more fans to the ballpark and to the broadcasts? That’s probably a more apt way to frame it. Obviously, the new rules are only one component. On-field performance, messaging from the organization, treatment of season-ticket holders, access to following the team — those are all facets that influence fan support.

The rule changes have helped make the game more palatable to the average viewer. I’m surprised by how much more intently I’ve watched every game. I used to be able to scroll through Twitter or talk to colleagues in the press box or read “War And Peace” between pitches. Now, there’s no reason to divert your attention during an at-bat. Maybe that’ll help MLB restore some of its nationwide appeal and, over time, spark attendance numbers in Cleveland and other cities. But football is king in Northeast Ohio (and in most places). That won’t change, even with a pitch clock, with robot umpires, with robot players.

When do the Dodgers make a move for a shortstop? Amed Rosario, maybe? — Nathan T.

Is there a trade match between the Dodgers (who need a shortstop) and the Guardians (who have a lot of shortstops)? — Andy J.

The Guardians are well-positioned to win the AL Central again, so trading Rosario, who will be a free agent after this season, doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. (They did just call up their top infield prospect, Brayan Rocchio, though he was sent back to Triple A after one game.) But I do agree the Dodgers need a shortstop this year. Miguel Rojas is a utility player at this point in his career, and now he’s on the injured list with a hamstring strain.

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If I were the Dodgers, I would target Jorge Mateo of the Orioles because they could play Gunnar Henderson at short and Ramón Urías at third if they trade him. Mateo is a well-above-average defender and one of the fastest players in the league. I’d also call the Cardinals to see if they would move shortstop Tommy Edman or their top shortstop prospect, Masyn Winn, who appears to be major-league-ready. (Here’s more on Winn and what he showed this spring.) Don’t laugh, but I also might call the Tigers about Javier Báez, to see how much of his remaining salary they’d be willing to eat.

Jim Bowden

Inside Guardians lefty Logan Allen’s striking MLB debut, a glimpse of the future Apr 23, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians pitcher Logan Allen (41) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Miami Marlins at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
By Zack Meisel
7h ago

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CLEVELAND — Logan Allen’s eight strikeouts Sunday were the most by a Guardians starting pitcher this season. Only Shane Bieber (seven on April 4) and Zach Plesac (six, April 9) have eclipsed the five-strikeout mark in an outing.

Five years ago, Cleveland boasted four starters with more than 200 strikeouts: Carlos Carrasco (231), Corey Kluber (222), Trevor Bauer (221) and Mike Clevinger (207). Bieber joined that quartet in May 2018 and rounded out the rotation for the rest of the season, finishing with 118 strikeouts in 114 2/3 innings.

Strikeouts aren’t everything. The second syllable of the word is the more important part.

But this isn’t your slightly older sibling’s Cleveland starting rotation. This is a group in transition.

Allen is the first member of the wave of starters on the way, and his companions aren’t far behind. Coaches and executives throughout the organization salivated over Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee all spring. Assistant general manager James Harris even indicated Sunday that the two consensus Top 100 prospects deserved to merit consideration for the roster spot Allen claimed, “but Logan came up last year (to Triple A) and he faced a little bit of adversity.”

Triple-A Columbus manager Andy Tracy unleashed his customary hijinks on Allen on Friday before informing him he was being promoted to the big leagues. He first told the lefty that the coaching staff was concerned about the spin rate on his changeup and had contemplated holding him out of his last start. Then, he revealed the truth: Allen was bound for the mound at Progressive Field on Sunday afternoon.

Allen drove to Cleveland on Friday night and reacquainted himself on Saturday with his Guardians teammates, many of whom he shared a clubhouse with during spring training. On Sunday morning, as Cal Quantrill supplied the room with a pop punk playlist at maximum volume and players handed out white “Chill Will” shirts in support of outfielder Will Brennan, Allen sat at his locker with Mike Zunino. The catcher clutched an iPad in his left hand as the two studied the Marlins scouting report and discussed Allen’s pitch-sequence preferences.

Donning an oversized navy jacket with red sleeves on a blustery, overcast day, Allen marched from the bullpen to the dugout before first pitch. He slapped hands with the relievers as they passed him, making the opposite voyage. He peered toward the stands and took in his surroundings. Allen said he had 15 to 20 family members and friends in attendance, including his older brother, Hunter, who played at Alabama State and always served as Allen’s battery mate as they grew up.

Allen started his big-league career by striking out Miami’s Jon Berti on a 93 mph fastball over the plate. Zunino grabbed a new ball from home-plate umpire Lance Barksdale and threw it to José Ramírez to toss around the infield. He lofted the strikeout ball to the bat boy. The ball was waiting in Allen’s locker after the game — and after teammates doused him with beer and shaving cream.

There was nothing overly flashy about Allen, just an uptempo pace and pinpoint command and the conviction to challenge hitters in the zone that helped him zoom through the farm system. He started the first seven hitters with a first-pitch strike.

“Once you get strike one,” he said, “things tend to go your way. So that’s the most important thing.”

More than half his pitches were fastballs, ranging from 90 to 94 mph. He threw some splitters, sweepers and cutters. He issued only one walk, and it came in his final inning, the sixth — impressive poise given no one would have blamed him for feeling as though a hamster was spinning a wheel in his stomach. He said early on he felt the nerves until he arrived in the bullpen for his warmup tosses, at which point he “realized it’s just baseball.”

“The second, third and fourth innings, we wanted to disrupt him a little bit. It didn’t work,” Marlins manager Skip Schumacher said after the Guardians’ 7-4 win. “Credit to him with his composure out there. It didn’t matter what we did.”

It’s the third debut in franchise history with at least six innings pitched, at least eight strikeouts and no more than one run allowed. Triston McKenzie (Aug. 22, 2020) and Luis Tiant (July 19, 1964) were the other two.

And the Guardians needed it. The rotation seems month-old-Pepsi flat.

Bieber, Quantrill and Plesac have pitched with plenty of traffic on the bases and have dodged harm to varying degrees. Peyton Battenfield was thrust into the mix less than two weeks ago after being exposed to the Rule 5 draft over the winter. McKenzie and Aaron Civale should help in a month or so. And so could Bibee and Williams at some point. Those two would offer the rotation some heat and some strikeouts.

For now, it’s Allen who will offer a glimpse of the future. When he met with Guardians staff at the fall development program at Progressive Field last October, they told him they didn’t want to repeat the discussion in a year. They wanted Allen in the dugout or on the mound, aiding Cleveland’s postseason pursuits.

The Guardians place a ton of emphasis on how players respond to adversity. Allen faced his first speed bump last season upon his arrival to Columbus after breezing through High-A Lake County and Double-A Akron. With the Clippers, he was charged with five earned runs in six of his 14 starts. His strikeout rate decreased. His walk rate soared. He made an effort to boost his velocity over the winter so he would have “more opportunities to get guys out, more chances in the zone.”

The plan paid dividends. He overmatched Triple-A hitters for three starts before receiving the call to the majors. Now he has a chance to stick in the rotation as the Guardians search for the right combination to carry them through this season — and beyond.
Final Thoughts

1. While Allen, Bibee and Williams garner attention, Daniel Espino, the prospect with the 100 mph fastball and wipeout slider, is on the shelf again. Espino had started ramping up in Arizona after experiencing shoulder soreness and inflammation during a January throwing session. He hadn’t yet thrown off a mound, but he recently had a recurrence of those symptoms after playing catch. He’ll visit a doctor in the coming days to determine his next steps, but it’s a painful setback for a highly regarded pitcher who was on track to possibly make his major-league debut this season.

2. Meibrys Viloria has appeared in eight of Cleveland’s 22 games. He has tallied four plate appearances and has totaled 17 2/3 innings behind the plate as a defensive replacement. In those innings, Guardians pitchers have tossed three wild pitches and runners have swiped three bases in three chances. He could have been a logical candidate to be designated for assignment to clear a spot for Allen on Sunday (and to keep Tyler Freeman on the major-league roster). After all, manager Terry Francona has been open about the team’s three-catcher setup being a short-term arrangement. Instead, the organization opted to expose Bryan Lavastida to the waiver process, which might say a lot about the 24-year-old, who is off to a sluggish start at Double-A Akron following a miserable 2022 season. Before the move, the Guardians were carrying five catchers on their 40-man roster, which limited their flexibility.

3. James Karinchak has surrendered four home runs in 12 innings this season. Last year, he allowed two home runs in 39 innings.
Josh Bell rounds the bases after homering off Jesús Luzardo. (Ken Blaze / USA Today)

4. Josh Bell has at least one hit in 10 of his past 11 games.

Bell’s first 10 games: 3-for-38, .329 OPS
Bell’s past 11 games: 15-for-41, 1.129 OPS

“I was working tirelessly to stay inside the ball and try to get balls in the air,” Bell said. “Things felt good in the cage there for a little bit, but it’s nice to see things finally start getting going during the game.”

5. Josh Naylor, mired in a 1-for-38 skid, notched a single in the eighth inning Saturday. Then, he delivered a pair of hits off lefty Jesús Luzardo on Sunday. Those hits snapped an 0-for-17 start to the season against left-handed pitchers.

I asked Francona how he evaluates Naylor and determines how to proceed with him against southpaws, given his .512 OPS against them last season and his rough showing in the early going this year.

“When you have the answer, if you tell me, I’ll do it,” Francona said. “We were sitting around (Friday), just talking for a while, because I dropped him in the order and I didn’t want him to come in and just look at it, so I wanted to talk to him a little bit. I was explaining to him — and I don’t ever want to get into (hitting coach Chris Valaika’s) area, because that’s not right — but I believe he can hit everybody, not just righties. He’s fearless at whatever he does. I told him, I think it’s mental. ‘I think you sometimes get yourself out.’ He either tries to do too much or sometimes he gets a little long and he wants to hit it far. I asked him, ‘What was your best at-bat on that road trip?’ He said that ball he hit to short (in Washington D.C., with an exit velocity of 105.7 mph that resulted in a double play). I said yeah. I said, ‘To me, if that would have gone up the middle, I bet you would have taken a deep breath. You have to get yourself to remember that.’ We’ll see. There is a balance, because you’re trying to win every game you can, but you don’t want to quit on a kid you think is an everyday player. It might not help.”

First, the Guardians need Naylor to mash righties, as he did last season (.856 OPS). The roster is missing a lefty-crusher to pair with him. Otherwise, he might be closer to running out of chances to prove his case to be an unquestioned everyday player.

Karinchak needs a reset in Columbus again. It worked last year. I believe he still has options remaining.

MLB power rankings drop CLE from 11 to 17. Wouldn't expect them to be any higher after the past week.

Guardians at the 25-game mark: Which issues are fixable? Which seem like bigger concerns? Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Tanner Bibee throws in his major league debut against the Colorado Rockies during the first inning of a baseball game, Wednesday, April 26, 2023, in Cleveland. (AP Photo/Ron Schwane)
By Zack Meisel
7h ago



CLEVELAND — Tanner Bibee still had remnants of shaving cream resting in the nooks of his ears as he pulled a gray sweater over his head a few minutes after his teammates celebrated his triumphant major-league debut.

Leave it to the rookie pitchers to deliver the bright spots during the lifeless stretches of the Guardians’ sluggish 12-13 start. First, Logan Allen. Then, Bibee. And now, some intrigue about how the club sorts out a messy starting rotation.

That’s one of the prevailing storylines 25 games into the 2023 season: Just how quickly will that unit transition from the old-ish guard to the new batch of kids? Allen and Bibee fueled the only victories the Guardians could muster in a wretched weeklong homestand against the Marlins and Rockies. The answer to the rotation’s woes, for now, is to turn to the top prospects.

What other issues plaguing this team are fixable? What is merely a fleeting flaw, and what is a deficiency that could prove disastrous?

Sure, manager Terry Francona’s teams typically start slowly and thrive through the summer. But that doesn’t guarantee this group will follow that same pattern. It’s about the why. Why is another summer surge possible? The Guardians recovered from a rough start last year because they booted Bobby Bradley and Bradley Zimmer and Oscar Mercado and Yu Chang, and because the bullpen jelled, and because Steven Kwan and Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill bloomed.

What are the steps necessary this season to follow the path to viable contender status?

The AL Central is weak once again, perhaps even less formidable than last year, with Tony LaRussa cackling from his couch as he watches the White Sox crater. But the goal isn’t to win the division by being the best test-taker in a room full of D+ students. It’s to boast a team imposing enough to make a legitimate run in five months at the thing commissioner Rob Manfred once dubbed a “piece of metal,” the thing that has eluded the franchise for three-quarters of a century.

So what’s a short-term malady we’ll have forgotten about by June, the sort of easy repair that isn’t worth Francona yanking out his imaginary hair? And what are the concerns that might sink the Lake Erie cruise liner?

Bibee sat 94 to 97 mph on Wednesday, a breath of fresh air for a rotation with the second-lowest average fastball velocity in the league (92.3 mph) and the lowest strikeout rate. Shane Bieber has been the club’s only consistent starter and even he hasn’t seemed as sharp as usual.

Bieber’s strikeout rate by year (league average for starters in parentheses)

2020: 41.1 percent (22.9 percent)
2021: 33.1 percent (22.6 percent)
2022: 25.0 percent (21.6 percent)
2023: 17.6 percent (22.3 percent)

The Guardians hope McKenzie (right teres major strain) will return on or shortly after Memorial Day, when he’s eligible to escape the 60-day injured list. He’s itching to fast forward a month. He’s expected to advance to bullpen sessions in the next couple of days. Aaron Civale (oblique injury) has started to play catch.

The Guardians probably summoned Bibee a bit sooner than they would have preferred. President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti stressed Wednesday that Bibee still has development remaining. But it’s difficult to argue, especially after a sterling debut, that he isn’t one of the five best options for the rotation at the moment. He can continue that development in the big leagues. The same goes for Allen, who submitted a strong six-inning effort in his debut last weekend.

There are six starters on the roster at the moment. The Guardians will have to oust someone from the mix. There will be further complications when McKenzie and Civale return. Can they settle on a group that can evolve into a team strength? It might require asking a lot from some rookies, including Gavin Williams, another consensus Top 50 prospect, who didn’t allow a run in his Triple-A debut Thursday. Either way, the rotation situation figures to stand out all season.

If the Guardians can unlock the right combination in the rotation, that should take some pressure off a bullpen that has been pushed early. James Karinchak has already surrendered twice as many home runs as he did last season in a third of the innings. Emmanuel Clase’s velocity has dipped. Nick Sandlin’s command has been shaky. But that’s nitpicking. This is a deep, capable group, and Sam Hentges’ impending return should help, too. Eli Morgan’s 0.00 ERA across 11 2/3 innings, the product of increased slider usage, has been key.

On offense, the Guardians own the league’s sixth-best walk rate and second-best strikeout rate, and they rank second in stolen bases, but they haven’t hit the ball soundly enough to capitalize on those qualities. Without the threat of power, they haven’t formulated a way to offset the funks in which they struggle to string together hits. And there have been plenty of those, which explains why they rank 23rd in the league in runs per game, at 3.8, and 27th in OPS, at .661. Regardless of the pitching puzzle, scoring runs is the most pressing issue at the moment.

José Ramírez and Josh Naylor share the team lead with three home runs. That ranks tied for 92nd in the league. They’re each on pace for 19 this season. As a team, the Guardians’ 13 home runs rank ahead of only the Nationals (12). The teams directly in front of them include the Reds, Tigers, Royals, Rockies, Diamondbacks and White Sox. That’s not the company you want to keep.

The problem seems correctable … to an extent. Ramírez, Naylor, Josh Bell and Oscar Gonzalez should clear the fences more moving forward. But this lineup still feels short of a consistent power threat (or two).

Speaking of Gonzalez, no one has landed a punch in the bout to seize the right field gig. Gonzalez and Will Brennan have essentially formed a platoon, but neither has found a rhythm at the plate.

Gonzalez: .197/.222/.311 slash line
Brennan: .212/.263/.288 slash line

There isn’t immediate help on the horizon, unless the Guardians want to toss Richie Palacios into the mix. George Valera is stationed in Arizona as he rehabs a lingering hand/wrist injury. He has not yet progressed to the hitting stage of his recovery.
Oscar Gonzalez ranked in the 51st percentile in hard-hit rate in 2022. He’s in the 15th percentile so far this season. (Ken Blaze / USA Today)

For Gonzalez, it’s all about plate discipline, and after ranking in the bottom 1 percent of the league in chase rate last season, he now ranks in the … drum roll … bottom 1 percent in chase rate this season. He’s making contact with pitches that pitchers want him to make contact with, stuff out of the zone or placed in a spot where he can’t wallop it. His hard-hit rate has plunged.

If the right-handed-hitting right fielder could emerge as a steadier threat at the plate, it would go a long way toward balancing out the lineup. The Guardians have been miserable against lefties, with a .664 OPS, which ranks 20th in the majors. They’ve had far worse fortune over the past 10 days, when they’ve encountered an endless supply of southpaws. The surprising stat, however, is they’ve actually fared slightly worse against righties this season; their .659 OPS ranks 25th.

There’s reason to believe, though, that they’ll improve against righties, based on the track records of switch hitters Ramírez and Bell and lefties Naylor, Kwan and Andrés Giménez. Against left-handed pitchers? Well, the team lacks a readymade lefty masher on the roster. Gabriel Arias was miscast as a platoon partner for Naylor; he hasn’t occupied that role as often recently, but someone probably should.

That’s just one of the leaks that needs plugging. More will spring up as the season unfolds.