Cleveland Sports Forum

FanGraphs gives Cleveland Guardians 54% chance to make playoffs; 2.5% chance to win 2023 World Series

By Steve DiMatteo

Feb 17, 2023

The Cleveland Guardians will be looking to defend their AL Central crown in 2023, and according to FanGraphs, the team has a 42% chance of doing just that.

FanGraphs has launched its 2023 playoff odds for every team in baseball, which use a combination of their Steamer and ZiPS projection systems, which are then used as part of a pretty detailed formula, which you can read about here if you want to get into the weeds of it.

Long story short, the Guardians are being given a 42% chance to win the division, and a 54% to simply make the playoffs. FanGraphs gives Cleveland a 15% chance to clinch a playoff bye and a 12% chance to make the playoffs as a wild-card team. Most importantly, the Guardians are being given a 2.5% chance to win the World Series, which is the sixth-highest mark int he American League.

These are always fun projections to look at before a season gets underway, and they're even more fun (or humiliating sometimes) to look at after the fact. And while it gives us something to talk about as spring training is set to begin, you really can't take too much stock into these numbers.

As for the rest of the division, the Twins are being given a 34% chance to win the Central, and the White Sox have an 18% chance. The Royals and Tigers are bringing up the rear with 3% and a shade under 2% respectively.

<

This all reads like Spring Training is underway!

I see some fantasy projection lists Jose as one of the top 5 fantasy picks for 2023, as usual. They project a pretty bad year for Quantrill with ERA of about 4.60 and only 9 wins. Which is better than Civale or Plesac who don't make their top 300. Neither of course do Straw or Zunino.

FILED UNDER:

MORNING NEWS AND NOTES

Be glad the Guardians avoid arbitration with their star pitchers

Morning news and notes for Friday, Feb. 17, 2023

By Matt Lyons@mattrly

Feb 17, 2023, 9:17am EST

The fallout between the Brewers and Corbin Burnes is the worst nightmare of any team going into the arbitration process with their star player — a nightmare the Guardians are thankfully very good at avoiding.

Burnes, speaking with the media shortly after he lost his arbitration case against the Brewers, said the relationship between him and his team is “definitely hurt” from the whole process.

There’s no denying that the relationship is definitely hurt from what transpired over the last couple weeks. There’s really no way getting around that. Obviously, we’re professionals, and we’re going to go out there and do our job, keep doing what I can every fifth day that I go out there. But with some of the things that are said, for instance, basically putting me in the forefront of why we didn’t make it to the postseason last year, that’s something that probably doesn’t need be said. We can go about a hearing without having to do that.

That’s ... yikes.

Now, granted, if the Brewers waive the largest bundle of money in front of Burnes he’ll probably return in free agency when the time comes, but this certainly isn’t what you want to hear your former Cy Young pitcher saying at the start of spring training. Especially when the whole thing transpired over such a small gap between what he wanted ($10.75 million) and what the Brewers wanted to pay him ($10.01 million).

Was the public tongue-lashing from a star pitcher worth that $740,000 to an owner, Mark Attanasio, worth north of $700 million? Well — he’s comically rich, so probably.

Thankfully, this whole situation is what the Guardians have historically avoided. Most recently, they avoided arbitration with all seven of their eligible players for the 2023 season, including their own former Cy Young-winning pitcher, Shane Bieber. Things could have easily gone the same way with Bieber as they did for the Brewers with Burnes. Bieber and the Guards eventually agreed on a $10.01 million salary for 2023 — the same thing that the Brewers were trying to pay Burnes — and now the only spring training video we get of him is throwing off a mound.

Bieber may have ended up being a bit of a lucky underpay for the Guardians, as MLB Trade Rumors estimated him to make $10.7 million in arbitration. But MLBTR also estimated Burnes at $11.4 million, so his floor was quite a bit higher than Bieber’s. Cleveland also came in over a couple MLBTR projections, including Zach Plesac ($2.95 million paid/$2.9 million projected), Aaron Civale ($2.2 million/$2.6 million), and James Karinchak ($1.5 million/$1.4 million).

We don’t know what Bieber was asking for, but if they ended up going to court, the Guardians could have waltzed into the courtroom and spouted velocity dips and health history as a reason to not pay him his worth for the 2023 season (I like to imagine they would have also brought out an oversized chart showing his Baseball Savant orbs getting bluer over the years). It could have been Bieber coming out upset that his team decided to go to court instead of just paying whatever it was he was asking for despite all his years in the organization and his 2020 Cy Young win.

Cleveland Guardians news

Palacios brothers fulfill lifelong dream to team up for the Netherlands | MLB

Richie Palacios and his brother, Josh, will be playing for the Netherlands in the WBC when the exhibition tournament starts next month. Sure, it’s no “both my kids are playing against each other in the Super Bowl” like the Kelce brothers in the NFL, but it’s yet another reason why the World Baseball Classic is so great.

MLB: Bally network troubles could lead to end of blackouts | 92.3 The Fan

It’s been discussed before, but one potential benefit of the Bally Sports network going under — and MLB subsequently taking over — could mean the end of regional blackouts for those markets. Not surprisingly, it doesn’t sound like MLB is too fond of the blackouts, at least from a fan perspective.

“I don’t relish any of this,” Manfred said at a spring training media day. “I think it’s necessary to have a centrally based solution to what’s a really serious problem and move us forward to our next stage of delivering games to fans, delivering them where they want to watch them, and without the kind of blackouts that we’ve had in the old model.”

Zach Plesac, Aaron Civale enter Guardians camp under pressure to bounce back from injury-plagued year | Cleveland

The back of the Guardians rotation is filled with question marks, mostly related to health. This could be the last season for Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac to prove they can be healthy (and effective) for a full season before the three-head prospect monster of Gavin Williams, Daniel Espnio, and Tanner Bibee starts making noise at the major-league level.

Around the league

Hall of Fame broadcasters Tim McCarver died at age 81 yesterday.

Harold Ramirez and Luis Rengifo won their arbitration cases.

Mookie Betts is beefed up.

“As of now,” Shohei Ohtani is an Angel.

Takeaways from FanGraphs’ recently released playoff odds.

The Phillies extended reliever Seranthony Dominguez.

Kevin Gausman, good?

The 2025 free-agent class could be wild.

<

<



Six Takeaways From Our Playoff Odds

by Ben Clemens

February 16, 2023

Earlier this week, as is tradition, FanGraphs founder David Appelman went into his garage, turned off all the lights except for some candles, and performed a dark and arcane ritual. The words were carefully chosen and spoken precisely, with any variation promising disaster. Then he went back inside, pushed a few buttons on his computer, and now we have playoff odds for 2023!

Okay, fine, that isn’t exactly how it goes down, but it’s close. Our playoff odds bring together pieces of a lot of features you’ve already seen on the website. We start with a blended projection that incorporates ZiPS and Steamer’s rate statistic projections. We add in playing time projections from RosterResource, which incorporate health, skill, and team situation to create a unified guess for how each team will distribute their plate appearances and innings pitched.

With playing time and production in hand, we use BaseRuns to estimate how many runs each team will score and allow per game. That gives us a schedule-neutral win percentage for each team, because you can turn runs scored and runs allowed into a projection via the Pythagorean approximation. From there, we simulate the entire season 20,000 times, with an odds ratio and a random number generator determining the outcome of each game on the schedule, and voila! Our playoff odds.

Why am I telling you all of this? First, so you can look at them. They’re accessible from the main page, but you can also click here to dive in. Second, because I’m going to walk through some projections I found interesting, as well as a few places where the gap between common perception and our odds merit an explanation. I’ve come up with one takeaway per division, in order of how interested I am in my own takeaways. Let’s get started!

Oh My Goodness, the Dodgers

This is a code red. The Dodgers are projected for fewer than 90 wins. This is not a drill. Please proceed directly to the panic room. FanGraphs began calculating playoff odds and projected win totals in 2014. We’ve projected the Dodgers for 90-plus wins (or a pro-rated version thereof in 2020) every year. Until now, that is.

Why is that? In a word, pitching. We’re projecting the Dodgers to have average run prevention overall, which is a far cry from their recent form. In the past six years, they’ve allowed the fewest runs in baseball three times and the second-fewest three times. Our central projection has them allowing 150 more runs than they did in 2022. That’s, uh, a lot of runs.

We project them to come back to the pack for two reasons: they have worse pitchers and worse defenders. Cody Bellinger plays a mean center field, Trea Turner is a better shortstop than Gavin Lux, and the rotation has less margin for error (and an older Clayton Kershaw) than ever.

Subjectively, I think that projections are probably slightly too pessimistic about the Dodgers’ ability to keep runs off the board. They’ve run a preposterously low BABIP for years on end, likely thanks to an unparalleled ability to position their defense, and I think that will help them even with the new restrictions on the shift. They also have a good track record of working with pitchers, particularly relievers, to emphasize their strengths. Projections have a tough time nailing down some of the little things the organization does well.

Still, even if we’re a handful of wins low, the general point makes sense to me. These aren’t the 2020 Dodgers, who took one of the best teams in baseball and added Mookie Betts for fun. They aren’t the 2021-22 Dodgers, who poached Trea Turner and Max Scherzer to add to their embarrassment of riches. They’re starting Trayce Thompson and counting on a bounce back from Noah Syndergaard instead. They look like a very good team, but not quite the unstoppable force on offense and immovable object on defense that they’ve been for most of the last decade.

AL Central Grindfest Redux

The Guardians rode a hot finish to a comfortable division title in 2022, but the Twins and White Sox were neck-and-neck with them until each swooned in September while Cleveland prospered. This year, we think the division is in for more of the same.

The AL East has a reputation for being the toughest division in baseball, while the AL Central has a reputation for being the weakest. Our odds agree with those two takes – but also think that those two divisions have the narrowest gap between the worst and best teams. A scarce 13 projected wins separate the Tigers and Guardians in our projections. The NL East and NL West both boast first-last gaps more than twice that large.

Similarly, only four wins separate the Guardians and White Sox, who we give the third-best chance of winning the Central. Only the aforementioned AL East has a slimmer first-third gap. Add in the Royals and Tigers, who aren’t seriously contending but are more evenly matched with the best teams in the division than, say, the A’s and the cream of the AL West, and you end up with a muddled division race with plenty of capable teams but no juggernauts.

With so little separating the teams in our eyes, the division might go to the team that is least affected by injury, which I believe favors the Guardians. The White Sox and Twins have depth issues, though credit to the Twins for acquiring Michael A. Taylor to minimize theirs. Cleveland, meanwhile, has a 40-man roster chock full of potential contributors. This looks to be a close one yet again, with a marginal edge to the team with the deepest roster.

Pity the Phillies

The Braves have been putting together a mini-Dodgers run of their own in recent years, winning the NL East year after year while mixing homegrown stars with shrewd trade acquisitions. Our playoff odds have long liked what Atlanta is doing – we gave them the second-highest win total projection in the game last year – but this year we think they’re the best team in baseball, period.

The Mets aren’t far behind. They signed a string of high-profile free agents this winter, and they were already an excellent team – they won 101 games last year while their best pitcher missed most of the season. I’d take a full season of Justin Verlander over 11 games from Jacob deGrom, and Kodai Senga is a high-variance but high-ceiling addition that makes their rotation one of the best in baseball. They didn’t really lose anyone on the hitting side, either, so they’ll surely be a force to reckon with again.

That leaves the Phillies out in the cold. We give them the 10th-best projected win total, but only the 18th-best chance of winning their division. They made the World Series and then added Trea Turner, but it looks like their path to the playoffs this year will be as hard as ever. A playoff bye isn’t likely at their projected win range, but they have much less margin for error than they would have if the best teams in their division weren’t so danged good. Oh yeah, the Eagles lost the Super Bowl last weekend, too. Pour out some liquid cheese for the rough week our friends in Philly are having.

What’s Up With the Orioles?

The biggest disagreement between our playoff odds and the ZiPS odds is what to make of the Orioles. ZiPS has them as a roughly .500 team, while we think they’re in the 75-win range. That’s enough to take their playoff odds from questionable to doubtful, in NFL injury parlance, or from 28.7% to 9.9% if you want the math of it.

That has knock on effects for the rest of the AL East. The better the O’s are, the tougher everyone else’s road gets. The Rays look like a Wild Card contender with upside for more, just like they are seemingly every year. That’s much easier to do if the Red Sox and Orioles are bad, though. It’s not just that Tampa Bay has to play them 13 times apiece; they also need to finish ahead of at least one AL East team in the standings, and likely at least two, to secure a Wild Card spot.

To my mind, Baltimore’s error bands are the widest in baseball this year. They have a team made up of young up-and-comers, which means both a wider range of potential outcomes and less certain playing time. If they’re in the race in July, they might add at the trade deadline, or their prospects might develop at a completely different rate than we expect. That goes both ways, though; they’re still in talent accumulation mode, and didn’t hesitate to subtract at the 2022 deadline in pursuit of long-term success. Maybe we’re low on their chances (for what it’s worth, Baseball Prospectus agrees with us), but I think they have the least certain outlook in baseball.

If you’d like to look at a distribution of outcomes, you can do so using our Distribution mode, which shows the distribution of wins across all of our simulations. These simulations all start with the same talent level, so they won’t capture the exact type of volatility I’m talking about, but they will show you how much a team’s fortunes varied from simulated season to simulated season, even with the same players contesting each game.

Fair and Balanced Scheduling

Every year, preseason articles make too much of strength of schedule. It’s only natural – authors are grasping for stories without much new to talk about – but it simply doesn’t impact the outcomes of games very much. A 30-point difference in opponent strength of schedule is worth something like five expected wins, but that’s a huge schedule differential. That’s like the Orioles compared to the Guardians last year, before the advent of the more-balanced schedule.

Projected strength of schedule is always narrower than observed (projections have narrower bands than observed standings, since they’re mean outcomes), and the new schedule is pushing that gap even tighter. The Cardinals have the easiest projected schedule in baseball this year, and their opponents check in at a .491 winning percentage, quite close to .500. The toughest schedule belongs to the Orioles, who sport the lowest projected win total in the toughest division in baseball, resulting in a .509 projected strength of schedule.

In other words, don’t give the schedule too much credit when you’re looking at playoff odds. The Cardinals aren’t projected for 88 wins solely because their division doesn’t have any competition. Give them the toughest schedule in the game instead of the easiest one, and we’d still project them for 85.5 wins. The same goes for the Brewers; they’re getting a small tailwind thanks to their division, but the gap just isn’t worth that much. If the Brewers, Phillies, and Giants compete for the last playoff spot, our odds will tell you that the difference in their schedules is worth less than a win’s worth of tailwind for Milwaukee. Team matters more than schedule, in other words, even in the two weakest divisions.

The Angels Aim for the Middle

Every year, I make note of the fact that the way we construct our odds favors teams with strong starting lineups, regardless of the depth behind those lineups. We use a single initial projected team winning percentage to run every simulation, and that projected winning percentage mostly assumes full health. Sometimes that means that a team you’d expect to struggle if any stars miss time (yes, I mean the Angels) fares better on our odds than you’d expect them to in real life.

Not so in Anaheim (they might be the Los Angeles Angels, but they still play in Mickey Mouse’s shadow) this year. The ZiPS odds, which account for injuries by simulating unique seasons with varying playing time for each player, like the Angels more than our odds this year. The team has finally done enough adding around the edges, as Mike Petriello recently noted, that it’s no longer just Trout, Ohtani, and a pile of below replacement-level teammates.

Their reward? An AL West field that’s difficult and only getting more so. The Astros just won the World Series. The Mariners are ascendant, having broken their playoff drought behind Julio Rodríguez’s triumphant debut. The Rangers might have the best starting rotation in baseball. The A’s… okay, the A’s are bad, but the other three teams in the division are good. The middle class of the AL is better than ever. Last year, we projected eight AL teams to win 80 or more games. This year, it’s 10. The path to an AL West title or a Wild Card berth is littered with solid competitors.

Heck, last year the Angels and Astros were the only AL West teams with a preseason projection of 80 or more wins, and this year we think every team other than the A’s will clear that bar. The Angels front office is doing what they weren’t able to accomplish in recent years: surrounding the best players in the game with competent major leaguers. Unfortunately, everyone else is improving too, and the end result is 39% playoff odds. That doesn’t mean they’re going to miss the postseason, but it does mean they have a tough road ahead.

Picking Guardians’ 26-man opening day roster for 2023 in February: How hard can it be?

By Paul Hoynes

Updated: Feb. 17, 2023, 4:47 p.m.

CLEVELAND, Ohio --

This is usually an excercise saved for the middle of spring training when storylines wane and curiosity takes a day off. But it’s February and spring has barely sprung for the Guardians so why not have a go at what their 2023 opening day roster will look like?

This year the count ends at 26 players. Last year, teams were allowed to open the season with 28 players because of the lockout.

That’s not the only difference. Last year, spring training didn’t start until March 18 and the season didn’t open until April 7. Camp opened this week in Arizona and Florida for players preparing for the World Baseball Classic, while the regular season begins on March 30.

Chris Antonetti, Mike Chernoff, Terry Francona and their staffs will welcome the extra time to pick the roster that will open against Seattle at T-Mobile Park on March 30. But that seems like a long time to wait, so here goes.


Guardians right-hander Shane Bieber went 13-8 with a 2.88 ERA in 31 starts last season.AP

Starting rotation (5): Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, Cal Quantrill, Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac.

No surprises here. The Guardians opened with the same starting five in 2022 and almost the same in 2021 (Logan Allen made the opening day roster, while Quantrill was in the pen.) Civale and Plesac are coming off poor seasons because of injury and performance. They could be replaced by one of several promising young starters, but let’s wait and see on that front. Quantrill is going to pitch for Team Canada in the World Baseball Classic, so that should give a prospect or two time on center stage during the Cactus League season.


Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase (left) and set-up man Enyel De Los Santos combined to make 127 appearances last season.John Kuntz, cleveland.com

Bullpen (8): Emmanuel Clase, James Karinchak, Trevor Stephan, Sam Hentges, Enyel De Los Santos, Eli Morgan, Nick Sandlin and Cody Morris.

A candle is burning for the return of iron man Bryan Shaw, but so far he’s still on the outside looking in. As Francona says, “bullpens can be volatile from year to year,” but a back end of Clase, Karinchak, Stephan, Hentges and De Los Santos feels solid. The two questionable spots belong to Sandlin and Morris. If Sandlin is healthy, and reports from spring training say the right shoulder he injured in the postseason is healed, he’s in. Morris was impressive as a spot starter last year. Cleveland may want to have him open at Class AAA Columbus to keep him stretched out. If Morris opens the year at Columbus, perhaps a non-roster guy like Nick Mikolajchak will get a look.


The Guardians signed free agent catcher Mike Zunino to a one-year $6 million deal during the offseason.Getty Images

Catchers (2): Mike Zunino and Bryan Lavastida.

The Guardians signed Zunino to a one-year $6 million deal. If he’s recovered from thoracic syndrome outlet surgery on his left arm, he’ll start. Prospect Bo Naylor (Canada) and spring training invitee Meibrys Viloria (Colombia) took themselves out of the backup equation by participating in the WBC. The Guards will have plenty of choices to backup Zunino with David Fry, Cam Gallagher, Collins and Lavastida in camp. Departed Austin Hedges and Lavastida opened behind the plate in 2022. If Lavastida doesn’t win the backup job, it could go to Viloria if he has enough time to learn the staff.


Guardians second baseman Andres Gimenez hit .297 with 17 homers and 69 RBI last year.Joshua Gunter, cleveland.com

Infielders/DH (7): Josh Bell, Josh Naylor, Andres Gimenez, Jose Ramirez, Amed Rosario, Gabriel Arias and Tyler Freeman.

The switch-hitting Bell and the left-handed hitting Naylor will share first base and DH. Gimenez will be at second, Ramirez at third and Rosario at shortstop. Arias and Freeman can fill the utility roles, giving Francona some versatility off the bench. Last year’s main utility players Owen Miller and Ernie Clement are gone.
What a difference a year makes. When the Guardians opened last season against the Royals on April 7, Rosario started in left field, Franmil Reyes was at DH, Bobby Bradley at first, Yu Chang at second, Gimenez at short and Hedges was catching. Miller was the first pinch-hitter off the bench. Reyes, Bradley, Chang, Hedges and Miller are no longer with the team.


Guardians left fielder Steven Kwan hit .298 with 25 doubles, seven triples and six homers last season.AP

Outfield (4): Steven Kwan, Myles Straw, Oscar Gonzalez and Will Brennan.

***The only thing lacking from the outfield is power. Kwan won a Gold Glove for his play in left field, established himself as the team’s leadoff hitter and finished third in the AL Rookie of the Year voting. Straw won a Gold Glove in center field, but needs to hit better than .221 (118 for 535) with a .273 slugging percentage to keep the job. Gonzalez was a revelation for 91 games, not to mention the postseason. But how will he play over a full season? Brennan had a nice season at Columbus and Class AA Akron (.314/.371/.479 with 13 homers and 107 RBI) and showed well in 11 games with the Guardians. He’ll help fill Francona’s bench along with Arias, Freeman and Lavastida. Outfielder Richie Palacios could help during the season as well.
***
The Guards since the start of last season have cleared some obstacles in the outfield. Bradley Zimmer, Oscar Mercado, Nolan Jones, Alex Call and Will Benson are gone. Zimmer, Benson and Jones were high draft picks. Next in the pipeline is George Valera, who is on the 40-man roster, but is recovering from surgery on his right hand. Valera, a left-handed hitter, hit .250 with 24 homers and 82 RBI at Columbus and Akron last year. He swings and misses a lot (145 strikeouts in 484 at-bats), but he has power. Valera, who played just 42 games at Columbus last year, spent most of his time in right field.

He turned pro with the Tribe's Daytona Beach minor league team in 1951. He was 17 years old. AP

Guardians

At 17, Rocky Colavito went to his first spring training terrified he’d be cut by the Tribe

By Terry Pluto

Published: Feb. 17, 2023, 5:02 a.m.

CLEVELAND, Ohio –

Once in a while, I call Rocky Colavito. He remains a Cleveland baseball icon, especially with him being 89. Seven years ago, Rocky lost part of his right leg below the knee due to diabetes.

With Guardians spring training opening this week, I checked in with Colavito.

“I wore number 367,” he said.

That came in response to a question about his first spring training. The year was 1951.

“I was 17 years old,” he said.

Yes, he signed at 17. While the Tribe’s Major Leaguers trained in Tucson, Arizona, the minor league camp was in Daytona Beach, Florida.

“We stayed in an old military barracks,” he said. “It was pretty nice. The officers used to stay there.”

“Wait a minute,” I said. “You were 17 when you signed?”

“That’s a long story,” he said.

NEVER FINISHED HIGH SCHOOL

I first interviewed Colavito in 1976. I was still at Cleveland State, but working on a story about him for the old Plain Dealer Sunday Magazine. He also was a big part of my book, ”The Curse of Rocky Colavito.” I’ve known him for decades.

But I’d never heard about this part of his life.

“I only went to high school for two years,” he said. “I didn’t talk about that because I didn’t want kids to think they could drop out of school and make the Major Leagues.”

Here’s what happened. At the age of 15, Colavito had a chance to play for a semi-pro team called The Bronx Mohawks. That was right near his home in the Bronx.

“Did you get paid?” I asked.

“Nada,” he said.

There was a guy on the team who was a foreman at a plant that made slippers. He hired Colavito at 70 cents an hour.

“My job was to bleach the slippers,” he said.

He also played baseball. While he was still a teenager, most of his teammates and players on opposing teams were grown men. He dropped out of school to play ball, make some money and dream of one day playing pro ball.


Joe DiMaggio with bat ready at the first day's workout on March 6, 1946 in Bradenton, Fla. Colavito grew up in the Bronx and watched DiMaggio play for the Yankees. ASSOCIATED PRESS

SCOUTS DID NOTICE HIM

As Colavito turned 16, he was a center fielder and a relief pitcher for his semi-pro team. Cleveland was the first team to pay attention to him. A scout named Hal Reason liked Colavito’s arm, and pictured him as a pro pitching prospect.

Colavito’s hero was Joe DiMaggio, the star center fielder for the Yankees. Colavito said Reason had him join the Wilkes-Barre Indians, the Tribe’s Class A farm team in the Eastern League.

“I wasn’t signed, I just worked out with the team for a few weeks,” he said. “I traveled with them. Remember Sweetwater Clifton?”

“The basketball player, Nat Clifton?” I asked.

“That’s right,” said Colavito. “He was a first baseman on that team. He was super to me. What a great guy!”

Clifton played for the Harlem Globetrotters and was one of the earliest Black players in the NBA. I fact-checked Colavito about Clifton. Should have known Colavito was right. In 1949, Clifton batted .304 with nine homers for Wilkes-Barre.

A SPECIAL DEAL & YANKEE ARROGANCE

Cleveland wanted to sign Colavito. But it needed special permission to do so. MLB rules were that a player’s class had to graduate from high school to be eligible. Colavito’s older brother, Domenico, wrote a letter to MLB Commissioner Happy Chandler.

Chandler gave the OK for Colavito to turn pro in 1951 – when he was 17.

Suddenly, the Yankees became interested in their hometown star.

Cleveland had offered Colavito a $3,000 bonus. A Yankee scout showed up.

“He was a pain in the a--,” said Colavito. “My older brother was handling this for me. He comes into our apartment and lights up a big, stinky cigar. I don’t smoke. My brother didn’t smoke. He didn’t ask permission – nothing.”

The scout began to talk about how “Every kid wants to play for the Yankees.” He said this was Colavito’s big chance. They’d let him come to spring training. No bonus. Just prove you can play for the Yankees.

Colavito pulled his brother aside and said, “Get rid of that guy. I can’t stand him.”

With that, the Yankees blew a chance through a cloud of cigar smoke to sign a guy who would hit 374 career MLB home runs.


This is from 1967, Rocky Colavito's last season as a player in Cleveland. He later returned as a hitting coach. AP

HERE’S THE DEAL

Cleveland’s offer was $3,000 – but not all at once. The scout was Mike McNally, who also was running the Wilkes-Barre team where Colavito worked out.

He received a $1,250 bonus.

“My father was a truck driver,” said Colavito. “I gave him $1,000. I gave my brother $100. He didn’t want to take it, but I made him take it. I kept $150.”

The rest of the bonus was paid out in $300 increments over the next year.

“They gave me a plane ticket to Daytona Beach for spring training,” he said. “I showed up. They had this big list on the wall of where players were to report. I couldn’t find my name. Did they cut me even before I showed up?”

In a panic, Colavito wandered around. He found McNally.

“I can’t find my name,” Colavito said.

“You need to find the pitchers’ list,” McNally said. “You’re on it. We like your arm.”

“Wait a minute, I signed to play the outfield,” said Colavito.

Cleveland eventually allowed him to play in the field.

THE CUTDOWN DATE

“They were cutting guys every day,” he said. “I mean, every day. You’d go and check a list. You’d see if your name was under those being cut. Guys would stand there, staring at that cut list. Just staring. Then they’d walk away, crying. Really crying their eyes out.”

On the wall were directions of where those cut were to put their uniforms. Then there was an office where players usually got bus tickets home.

“I won’t kid you, I was worried,” said Colavito. “I was 17. What if I didn’t make it? We had intrasquad games almost every day. Talk about pressure. There were some days when I went to look at that list and I about was ready to crap my pants, I was so scared.”

Colavito recalled how they woke up the players in the military barracks each morning to go work out.

“They shot a gun,” he said. “That got your attention.”

As spring training came to an end, no one told Colavito he’d made the team. There was another list on the wall – with names and where you were assigned to play.



His number was 367, as Colavito mentioned when opening our talk. There were about 500 players in camp.

“They were cutting guys every day,” he said. “I mean, every day. You’d go and check a list. You’d see if your name was under those being cut. Guys would stand there, staring at that cut list. Just staring. Then they’d walk away, crying. Really crying their eyes out.”

On the wall were directions of where those cut were to put their uniforms. Then there was an office where players usually got bus tickets home.

“I won’t kid you, I was worried,” said Colavito. “I was 17. What if I didn’t make it? We had intrasquad games almost every day. Talk about pressure. There were some days when I went to look at that list and I about was ready to crap my pants, I was so scared.”

Colavito recalled how they woke up the players in the military barracks each morning to go work out.

“They shot a gun,” he said. “That got your attention.”

As spring training came to an end, no one told Colavito he’d made the team. There was another list on the wall – with names and where you were assigned to play.


Rocky Colavito was honored with a statue in Little Italy’s Tony Brush Park on Tuesday, Aug. 10, 2021, which also happened to be the slugger's 88th birthday. David Petkiewicz, cleveland.com

WELCOME TO PRO BALL

Colavito did make the team. He stayed right in Daytona Beach, where Cleveland had a Class D team.

“There were three Class D teams back then,” he said. “Green Bay, Batavia and Daytona Beach. "

Once again, I checked Colavito’s memory. Of course, he was right. This was when pro baseball had teams at the levels of AAA, AA, A, B, C and D, with D being the lowest level.

In 1951, Cleveland had 13 minor league teams. That’s right ... 13!!! There were about 25 guys on a team, meaning there were 325 in the farm system. That’s probably a low estimate because players were cut and others were signed and added during the season.

At the age of 17, Colavito batted .275 (.900 OPS) with 23 HR and 111 RBI. The only other member of that team to play in the Majors was Joe Altobelli, who later was known for being a manager of the Baltimore Orioles.

“Joe was great,” said Colavito. “He batted .341.”

I checked it. Naturally Colavito was right.

“The best player on the team may have been Maley Truss,” said Colavito.

Truss batted .343 (.939 OPS) with 15 HR. He never played higher than the Class A level. The team had a player/manager. That was Mike Tresh, who’d played 12 years in the Majors. In 1951, he was 37 and starting a new post-playing career.

“I had a great time at Daytona Beach,” he said. “Whenever a player would hit a homer, they’d pass around a bucket and fans would put money in it. After the game, you’d get half of it for hitting the homer. The other half went into a kitty to be divided by all the players after the season.”

Colavito paused.

“I made out all right,” he said.

Indeed he did.

Colavito played 14 years in the Majors (1955-68) and hit .266 (.846 OPS) with 374 home runs.

The Cleveland Guardians are looking at their best team in decades but good luck watching

by Chad Porto

Feb 15, 2023

The fans’ biggest issue for the Cleveland Guardians 2023 season won’t be the quality of play but how to find it on television.

The Cleveland Guardians have arguably the best rotation and bullpen in the league, they have a great hitting lineup that can get on base, and just added two big boppers to join the team. Everyone is healthy and the team is in arguably the easiest division in baseball. They’re looking like a team to worry about if you’re a fan of anyone else. The team has few holes and even fewer questions but one is lingering in the minds of fans in Cleveland; how are we going to watch this team?

See, the Guardians are on the Bally Sports group of networks, which are run by Diamond Sports Group, and who is owned by Sinclair Broadcast Group (SBG). SBG has been working on building a streaming service to provide baseball fans with content. SBG hit a snag financially and was forced to sell off some assets; like Ring of Honor wrestling.

This financial issue has plagued their subsidiary, Diamond Sports Group as well. Diamond owns the broadcast rights for the Guardians and 13 other teams, and they are in a massive amount of debt. Diamond owes $6.8 billion in debt and the folks at MLB are concerned that Diamond will be able to make their debt payments.

What happens to the Cleveland Guardians when Diamond Sports Groups defaults?

If they’re unable to make the payments, the contracts they have become insolvent, leaving those teams in a lurch. Should the payments not get made and according to Cleveland.com, the MLB is prepared for Diamond to miss those payments, then the MLB will take over control of broadcasting the games.

The Guardians payroll may take a hit if this happens, as it’s unclear if the MLB will honor the $47 and $52 million owed to the Guardians from Diamond via the contracts, or if they can obtain the rights at a reduced cost.

Assuming that MLB does take over the broadcast rights, it may be hard for those local teams to find broadcast outlets, as it’s unclear what’s going to happen to all the regional networks that Diamond and SBC own. If they default on the rights, they’re also defaulting on operation costs as well, at least one would think.

The biggest issue that comes out of this for fans is that the MLB may elect to just broadcast them all via their MLB.TV outlet. That means being charged a hundred-plus dollars for a team, and that’s assuming their own contract situations will allow them to do so, as right now you can only watch teams that are out of the market.

Now, if there is no market in which to watch a local team, one would think they’d be in the free and clear but who knows? It’s rather ironic, that one of the best clubs on paper in team history may be among the least-watched this season.

This may also affect the Cleveland Cavaliers, but the NBA has a simpler solution. While some games may end up on the app, Bloomberg is reporting the NBA is prepared to start broadcasting the games on local affiliates, like in the old days. For fans of a certain age, everyone remembers that the Cavs used to play on WUAB-43.

What else is ironic, this didn’t have to happen. The Guardians owned their own television rights until 2012 but sold them to Fox when they were trying to secure the regional sports market and were buying up every local sports network they could. That means getting their hands on MLB and NBA games.

When Disney bought Fox, they bought the regional channels as well, but then sold them to Sinclair when Disney bought ESPN.

Now the market is wide open, especially with Disney rumored to be shopping ESPN around, and ESPN looking to end some deals, like one with the NBA, which means that NBC may get back in the running for the league.

<

Biggest "Potential Busts" of the 2022-23 MLB Free-Agency Class

BRANDON SCOTT

FEBRUARY 17, 2023

Get ready for an MLB season with some familiar faces in new places.

There was a ton of movement among star players this offseason, whether it be free-agent signings or trades to change the complexion of the MLB landscape.

Exciting as it may be, not all of these deals are going to work out. Conversely, moves you're probably skeptical about now are going to look a lot better than what you anticipate.

That's part of the beauty of the offseason: having fun with prognostications that won't matter once the games are being played.

In this exercise, we look at the biggest potential busts of this free-agency class, with consideration to player expectation, recent performance and size of the deals they signed.

1B Josh Bell, Cleveland Guardians



As good as Josh Bell is, it should be concerning that he doesn't hit the ball nearly as hard as he used to.

Bell's hard hit percentage dipped from 52 percent in 2021, which put him in the top seven percent of baseball, to 40.8 percent in 2022, per Baseball Savant. His exit velocity also dropped from 92.5 mph in 2021, which put him in the top 8 percent of baseball, to 88.9 mph last season.

While he won the Silver Slugger Award in 2022, Bell has yet to replicate power numbers shown from his lone All-Star season in 2019.

Bell's first- and second-half splits last year are also worth considering. Before the All-Star break, Bell slashed .311/.390/.504. But afterward, he slashed just .194/.317/.289, dropping his OPS by an astounding 288 points.

It was a similar story in that 2019 season, when Bell was an All-Star and his OPS dropped 244 points from the first half of the year to the second.

Bell's deal with Cleveland is for two years, $33 million, so it's not devastating for the Guardians if this goes south.

Catcher Willson Contreras, St. Louis Cardinals



There is immense pressure on Contreras taking over for the legendary Yadier Molina in St. Louis. It's good for the Cardinals to replace Molina with the best available catcher on the free-agent market.

Revisionist history will not fly here if the move ultimately flops. And to be clear, Contreras is a better hitter who should add some pop to the Cardinals' lineup.

But he's not nearly as good defensively as his predecessor, and the Cardinals put a premium on defense. Since 2019, St. Louis leads baseball in defensive runs saved and is second only behind the Astros in outs above average and runs prevented in that time.

Molina, even at age 40 and on the verge of retirement, had nine defensive runs saved last season. Meanwhile, Contreras was at -1 defensive runs saved.

It's possible that being one of the best hitting catchers in the game makes up for what he lacks defensively, but there is certainly bust potential considering Contreras' price tag and the shoes he's filling.

LHP Carlos Rodón, New York Yankees



The biggest knock on Rodón, who just signed a six-year, $162 million contract on the strength of his past two All-Star seasons, has been an inability to stay healthy.

Rodón, 30, underwent Tommy John surgery after just seven starts in 2019. He pitched in only four games in 2020 before more shoulder problems in 2021, his first All-Star season when he started 24 games.

Last season, his only with the San Francisco Giants, Rodón was healthy enough to pitch a career-high 178 innings, but he had to power down his fastball to get there. Perhaps this is the key to keeping Rodón healthy, but it also raises concerns about durability.

The Yankees' rotation was already dealt a blow with last season's trade acquisition Frankie Montas needing shoulder surgery, which is expected to keep him out until late in the year.

Rodón's health, perhaps more than any other player, will be worth monitoring for the entire season.

SS Xander Bogaerts, San Diego Padres



As great of a signing as this appears to be for San Diego, Bogaerts' waning power numbers last year cannot be ignored.

An .833 OPS and batting .307 may not seem like much of a decline, but the proof is in the power numbers. Last season, Bogaerts posted his lowest slugging percentage since 2017. It was also his lowest hard hit percentage since then, aside from the COVID-19 pandemic shortened 2020 season.

For context, Bogaerts played through shoulder and wrist pain in 2022, which likely caused the production dip after the first 38 games when he was slashing .326/.388/.465 with eight doubles and four home runs.

The Padres clearly do not believe they signed a declining player, but it is still worth your attention.

Bogaerts played the best defense of his decade-long career in 2022. But defense had historically been the hole in his game, and it's possible, if not likely, he could be moved from shortstop early into his 11-year, $280 million deal.

RHP Justin Verlander, New York Mets



There isn't much of a comparison for what we just witnessed Justin Verlander accomplish. To win the Cy Young Award coming off Tommy John surgery at age 39 is truly remarkable.

That's how the Mets ended up paying $43.3 million a year for a 40-year-old pitcher while already doing the same with 38-year-old Max Scherzer—Verlander's former teammate in their younger days with the Tigers.

But let's recap all of that. Verlander is a 40-year-old pitcher, now two seasons removed from Tommy John recovery and with the wear and tear of a Cy Young and World Series winning run, making over $43 million.

Only because it's Verlander is it assumed this is a good idea, which is a credit to him. But at that age, New York has to be concerned with how long his body will hold up and allow him to pitch at the level that calls for such a salary.

Verlander and Scherzer arguably make up the best 1-2 punch in any rotation across baseball, but health has to be a major question mark.

SS Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies



Going into this offseason, there was a case to be made that Turner was the best among another star-studded free-agent shortstop class.

This was an area the Phillies needed to upgrade, and Turner's desire to return to the East Coast played in their favor, leading to an 11-year, $300 million contract.

The Phillies are better for it, but there's valid cause for some trepidation. Keep in mind Turner's most redeeming quality is his speed, which he cannot hold on to forever.

Turner turns 30 on June 30. He's reached an age when speed typically declines. If that happens with Turner, it certainly takes away some of his appeal.

Add this to the fact Turner's power has diminished in recent years and you can see a path to this contract not living up to the hype. He's been better at second base than at shortstop, and teams typically don't pay $300 million for second basemen.

RHP Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers



Like with Verlander, attaching the term "bust" to one of the game's best pitchers ever feels a bit silly, no matter the context.

But his place on this list has nothing to do with ability, or doubt about his stuff. With deGrom, it all comes back to health.

If he stays healthy, the Rangers have a chance to take an enormous step in their development, which is great for them considering all of the money spent in the past two offseasons.

"If" is the operative word here. What if he doesn't?

That's a reasonable question to ask considering his elbow troubles in 2021 and the shoulder problems from last year.

It's also worth mentioning that deGrom saw his fastball velocity fade down the stretch of last season and posted a 6.00 ERA over his last four regular-season starts.

Spring training just started, and deGrom is already experiencing tightness in his left side after his most recent bullpen session, causing the team to hold him back from workouts, per the New York Post's Brian Wacker.

He's not as old as Verlander, but at age 34 with a recent injury history, $185 million over five years is a risky investment.

OF Aaron Judge, New York Yankees



Aside from the fact it's unlikely Judge replicates the historic season he had in 2022, injuries have to be a concern for someone his size at his age.

Judge turns 31 at the end of April in the first season of a nine-year, $360 million deal to return to the Yankees. At 6'7" and 282 pounds, you have to anticipate his body breaking down before those nine years are up.

We're obviously wishing Judge a clean bill of health for eternity, but this is the reality when you play so many games at that size.

He's one of the best right fielders in baseball and showed this past season he can be excellent in center field as well. But for how long?

It would not be surprising to see Judge exclusively as a designated hitter in a few years.

In just three years, Judge's sprint speed slipped from the 80th percentile to the 50th percentile, and you don't get faster and more athletic as you get older.

<

Great story on Rocky Colavito. Thanks for posting, Joe.

You are welcome Sea.

My uncle lived in Cleveland back then and would drive all the way back to Bridgeport to take me to Indian games on the weekends.
Most of the times, it was when the Yankees were in town.

Rocky was one of my bestest Indian players.
I had a foul ball that Rocky popped into the stands one year.

Collecting foul balls was not problem in those days if you know what I mean.

When I went to college, my mom moved into my grandma's house when she died.
She tossed the ball and my entire baseball collection

Little did I know then, but I don't know how much those cards would have been worth today.

I had some Mickey Mantle, Ted Williams, Willie Mays, and I'm sure there were other rookie cards that went missing.
A lot of them I collected through trades

I had close to 12 shoe boxes filled with cards.

Every week I would go to the grocery store next door and buy packs of cards with the bubble gum inside.
I had so many of the rectangular bubble gums on a shelf in the basement that I accidentally knocked the gum off the shelf.
They were so old most all of them shattered.
Probably the reason why I wear dentures

Ahhhh! The good ol'e days!

<

Francona often raves about the Brighton Hot Dog Shoppe from his hometown in Pennsylvania. When he was shown a picture of one of their chili dogs on Friday, he gave one of his typical Tito-esque descriptions:

“OK, that’s heaven. That’s what that is. That’s heaven. That proves there is a God. You can talk religion all you want. That proves there is a God. That’s a chili dog with everything. That’s what they call it. I grew up on that.”

My dad loved that hot dog shoppe. I would stop and buy him a few every time I flew into Pittsburgh. My wife is from Richmond Virginia. She thinks that people in Ohio and PA make fun of her accent. So once we stopped at the hot dog shoppe and I was on a phone call. I asked her to go in and order the hot dogs. I got off the call and walked in just as she was ordering. Guy behind the counter said you are not from around here are you ? I ended up placing the order.

Hot dog shops in southern New England are called NY System. Dogs were called wieners, not hot dogs. Each shop has its own recipe for their hamburger based secret sauce. "Up the arm" was the method of preparation for larger orders with buns stacked up the arm while adding the wieners and condiments. Great show.

https://newenglandhistoricalsociety.com ... em-wiener/

Guardians

AL Central 2023 preview has Twins closing in on Guardians; The week in baseball

By Paul Hoynes

Updated: Feb. 18, 2023, 3:14 p.m.

CLEVELAND, Ohio --

The balanced schedule this season has taken some of the emphasis off divisional play. Instead of facing each team in the AL Central 19 times, the Guardians, Twins, White Sox, Royals and Tigers will play each other 13 times.

For those who will miss the end-of-the-season, six-game homestands against the Royals, circa 2022 at Progressive Field, it’s time to shed a tear. Still, for a team to win its division or a wild card spot, a winning record in your division is essential.

It’s with that in mind that we take a look at the AL Central headed into the 2023 season and what has transpired with each team since the Guardians won the division last year with a 92-70 record


Guardians first baseman Josh Bell (right) laughs with Guardians assistant hitting coach Victor Rodríguez, as they talk after the first day of spring training baseball workouts for Guardians pitchers and catchers on Friday in Goodyear.AP

Guardians vs. the Twins

What we have here is a race for the division title between the Guardians and Twins. Last year Cleveland hammered divisional favorites Minnesota and Chicago going down the stretch, winning the Central by 11 games over the White Sox and 14 over the Twins.

It should be noted that the White Sox and Twins were hounded by injuries, while the young Guardians had the elixir of youth on their side.

But last year is last year. With spring training entering its second week, Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA standings have the Twins winning the Central in a close race over the Guards. The Twins are projected to finish 88.4-73.6 with the Guardians finishing at 87.8-74.2.

The Twins certainly did more in the offseason than Cleveland. Then again, they had 14 games to gain in the standings.

The Guardians’ big offseason acquisitions were first baseman Josh Bell and catcher Mike Zunino. They were looking for power and Bell and a healthy Zunino should provide it.

What they didn’t do was add a veteran starter even though Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac, representing the back end of the rotation, struggled last season. Their reasoning was almost assuredly based on last year’s success when they decided to not put too many hurdles in front of the talented players from their farm system.

What the Twins did

The Twins, meanwhile, added players left and right after going 78-84 last year.

They re-signed shortstop Carlos Correa after he couldn’t pass physicals with the Giants and Mets. Then they signed outfielder Joey Gallo and catcher Christian Vazquez. They traded for Miami right-hander Pablo Lopez to lead their rotation and Royals center fielder Michael Taylor to assist the talented, but fragile Byron Buxton.

Their rotation, in flux for the last few years, looks strong with Lopez, Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda, Bailey Ober and others. There are health concerns with Maeda missing all of last year with Tommy John surgery on his right elbow and Mahle making just four starts last season after being acquired from the Reds because of a sore right shoulder.

What the White Sox did

The two-year experiment with Hall of Fame manager Tony La Russa is over. The White Sox won the Central in 2021, but things ended badly in 2022. As right-hander Lance Lynn told mlb.com, “If you needed last year to put a chip on your shoulder, than you have one.”

The PECOTA standings have the White Sox finishing third at 78.4-83.6. Chicago went 81-81 last year.

Pedro Grifol, hired from the Royals coaching staff, is the new manager and he has some work to do. All-Star closer Liam Hendriks was diagnosed with non-Hodgkins Lymphoma during the offseason. Right-hander Mike Clevinger, signed to a one-year free agent deal to help the rotation, is under investigation by MLB for domestic violence and could be suspended.

Chicago did sign outfielder Andrew Benintendi to a five-year $75 million deal. But they still need someone to replace Jose Abreu at first base. Abreu, courted by Cleveland, signed a three-year $60 million deal with the Astros after spending nine years with the White Sox. Andrew Vaughn, Chicago’s No. 1 pick in 2019, will get that chance.

The White Sox, like the Twins, need their best players on the field. Yoan Moncada, Luis Robert, Tim Anderson and Eloy Jimenez missed time with injuries last season.

Besides Lynn, Dylan Cease and Lucas Giolitto, the rotation has some holes with Clevinger’s status unknown and Michael Kopech still recovering from right knee surgery.

What the Tigers did

The Tigers, 66-96 last year, have had one winning season in the last eight years. PECOTA projects them to finish at 65.1-96.9 this year.

Scott Harris, Detroit’s new president of baseball operations, traded closer Gregory Soto to the Phillies for utility players Nick Maton and Matt Verling along with catcher Donny Sands. Maton and Verling can play all over the diamond as Harris tries to improve Detroit’s speed and defense.

Harris signed Michael Lorenzen and brought back Matthew Boyd to fill out an injury-ravaged rotation behind lefty Eduardo Rodriguez. Two of those injured starters, Spencer Turnbull and Matt Manning, are back, but Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal aren’t expected to be big contributors this year as they recover from surgeries.

This will be future Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera’s 21st and final season with Detroit. Former Cleveland farmhand Eric Haase, 30, will open the season as the starting catcher.

What the Royals did

The Royals went 65-97 last year. PECOTA projects that they’ll finish 62.1-99.9 in 2023, those are mere projections.

From the Guardians’ point of view, however, they extended a nightmare by bringing back Zack Grienke and signing free agent Aroldis Chapman. Greinke has frustrated Cleveland pitchers for years and Chapman’s rope-a-dope against them in Game 7 of the 2016 World Series still causes pain.

Matt Quatraro, former assistant Cleveland hitting coach, is the Royals new manager. He has a rebuild on his hands.

The Royals traded the last remnants of their last rebuild when they shipped Taylor to the Twins and Adalberto Mondesi to Boston. The Mondesi trade opens shortstop for Bobby Witt Jr., who turned in a 20-20 (20 homers-30 steals) season as a rookie last year.

Brady Singer is the Royals top starter and to bridge the gap to other young starters, J.J. Picollo, the new president of baseball operations, signed veterans starters Grienke, Jordan Lyles and Ryan Yarbrough.

Former Cleveland DH Franmil Reyes is in camp with Kansas City on a minor league deal.

<

Guardians

Zach Plesac, Aaron Civale enter Guardians camp under pressure to bounce back from injury-plagued year


By Joe Noga

Updated: Feb. 17, 2023, 4:34 p.m.

CLEVELAND, Ohio —

While the Guardians’ 2022 season was the stuff of dreams for rookies like Steven Kwan and Oscar Gonzalez, there were veterans on the roster who dealt with nightmare scenarios, whether on the mound or in the trainer’s room.

Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale both missed time with injuries that derailed their seasons and pushed them to the back of Cleveland’s starting rotation as the club returns to Goodyear, Arizona, this week for the start of spring training.

With Triston McKenzie enjoying a breakout campaign and Cal Quantrill following up his 2021 breakout with a 15-win season, Plesac and Civale — once considered building blocks for the future — find themselves in an unenviable position. Both must prove they can stay healthy and productive enough to help the Guardians win games as the franchise looks to get some of its highly-touted prospects their own opportunities at the major league level.

Civale was on the injured list three different times in 2022 with separate injuries to his wrist, glute and forearm. The last of those injuries prompted concerns for his long-term health that were quickly answered when he responded to treatment and was able to return to the mound in September. But the inconsistency led to a 4.92 ERA and just 97 innings. In 2021, he made a trip to the 60-day IL with a sprained finger that limited him to just under 125 innings.

Even with all the time spent rehabbing, Civale’s curveball and sinker helped him produce above-average strikeout and chase rates last year, while he maintained an outstanding 5.4% walk rate. Civale’s curveball ranked in the top 10 among all pitchers with a 50.9% strikeout rate, while his sinker produced a -0.6 run value per 100 pitches.

But none of that helped Civale in a miserable Game 5 start against the Yankees during the American League Division Series that saw him give up three runs while retiring just one batter in what proved to be the Guards’ final game of the postseason.

Plesac’s injuries over the last two seasons, on the other hand, have been mostly self-inflicted. He missed time at the end of 2022 with a fractured hand after punching the mound in frustration when he gave up a home run to Seattle’s Jake Lamb. In 2021 he went on the IL with a thumb fracture when he “aggressively removed his undershirt” in Cleveland’s clubhouse after a bad outing against Minnesota.

While Civale, when healthy, has been effective with his arsenal, Plesac has struggled to miss bats. He has a 18.7% career strikeout rate and a .265 batting average on balls in play. In 2022 he ranked in the 20th percentile in hard hit rate and the bottom five percentile in expected batting average and expected slugging.

Cleveland’s uncanny inability to score runs in games Plesac started in 2022 did not help matters, either. At one point in late July, Plesac had received one or fewer runs of support in 11 of his 18 outings, and four of those were scoreless. By the end of the season, Plesac ranked in the bottom five among pitchers with at least 20 starts for the lowest run support in baseball at 3.33.

Both pitchers entered arbitration eligibility for the first time this season and are under team control for at least two more years, frequently making them the subject of trade rumors. Though the Guardians are loathe to part with proven major league pitching talent unless the price is right, several young prospects at the upper echelon of Cleveland’s farm system could afford the front office a chance to explore multiple deals.

Cody Morris showed promise last season in his last two starts after opening the campaign on the injured list out of spring training. His continued development, along with the potential 2023 debuts of top prospect Daniel Espino, spring invitee Logan T. Allen and upstart youngsters Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams could give the pitching-rich Guardians the chance to flip Plesac, Civale or both for a bat or a bullpen arm later this year or around the trade deadline.

Morris pitched in seven games after joining Cleveland’s roster in September and allowed just three earned runs with 14 strikeouts in 14 innings over his final four appearances. Two of those outings came in relief, where he might have to focus his attention early in the season as a way to make the opening day roster.

Espino, the No. 16 overall prospect in baseball according to MLB Pipeline, was dominant in his four starts for Double-A Akron in April before a knee injury cost him the remainder of the season. Cleveland proceeded with an abundance of caution regarding the 22-year-old’s knee last year, but he is poised to ascend rapidly if healthy in 2023.

Allen, the club’s sixth-ranked prospect according to Baseball America, was 9-7 with a 4.75 ERA in 132 2/3 innings between Akron and Triple-A Columbus last year. He led Cleveland’s player development system in strikeouts with 177, the third-highest total in the minors and was second in innings.

Bibee and Williams, both selected in the 2021 June draft, distinguished themselves among a draft class that included 19 college pitchers out of 21 picks. Bibee went 8-2 and struck out 167 batters between High-A Lake County and Akron while Williams posted a 1.96 ERA and a sparkling 0.95 WHIP in 25 games for the Rubberducks.

Any of those young arms could step up and challenge Plesac and Civale for their spots in manager Terry Francona’s starting rotation with their performances in spring training or during the early months of the season. Konnor Pilkington, Xzavion Curry or Hunter Gaddis, who all made their big league debuts last year, could also pose a threat.

Though Francona is famously loyal to his veterans, particularly when it comes to breaking camp with the club, the bottom line for Plesac and Civale remains this: If they can’t stay healthy and provide the Guardians with consistent, productive innings in 2023, they could end up on the outside looking in.

<

Guardians, MLB, will be tested by new schedule and other rule changes

By Jeff Schudel News-Herald

February 18, 2023 at 1:52 p.m.

The first full-squad spring training workout for the Guardians is set for Feb. 21 in Goodyear, Az., and four days later they are scheduled to face the Reds at Goodyear Park in the Cactus League opener.

Exhibition games in Arizona and Florida are going to be different than in previous Cactus League and Grapefruit League seasons because baseball has changed some rules to theoretically produce more offense and speed up play. Apparently young people are not content to sit comfortably in plastic chairs and carry on a conversation with the person next to them while the game drifts along like a lazy river.

We’ll get to the rule changes shortly. But the biggest adjustment for the Guardians, defending AL Central Division champions, might be the schedule. They won’t be able to feast on the Tigers and Royals as often as they have in the past.

The new format has teams playing 52 intra-division games instead of 76. That means the Guardians will play the White Sox, Twins, Tigers and Royals 13 times each instead of 19 times. The Gs were 47-29 in the Central Division last year. They were 45-41 against everybody else.

Teams will face each of the 29 other Major League teams for the first time in history. They will play 46 interleague games instead of 20. Four will be against a geographical rival — the Reds in the case of the Guardians, even though Pittsburgh is closer. Two of the games will be played in Cincinnati and two in Cleveland.

That leaves 42 interleague games involving 14 teams. The Guardians will host a three-game series against each of these seven teams: The Marlins, Rockies, Cardinals, Brewers, Braves, Phillies and Dodgers. The Guards play the seven other NL teams in a three-game series at their parks.

That leaves 64 intraleague games outside the division. Teams will play seven games against four league opponents and six games against six opponents. Those games will be divided into one home series and one road series against each team.

***The biggest rule change is one MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred has been campaigning for for years; the shift is officially banned.

Teams no longer are allowed to move an infielder into short right field and leave only one infielder on the left side of second base. The shortstop and third baseman must remain on the left side of second. The first baseman and second baseman must be right of second. Also, all four infielders must be stationed on the infield dirt when the ball is pitched.

“Early on, I think you’ll see a bump in offense,” Guardians manager Terry Francona said during a season wrap-up news conference. “And then my hope is that some of the unintended consequences don’t creep in and make it something that’s not good. All of a sudden you start to maybe reward guys who sell out for just pulling the ball. I don’t know that that’s really good.

“The balls that are lined into short right field, they’re gonna be hits now. I get that. That part’s OK. I haven’t spent any time yet trying to figure out competitively how we make it work, so I’ll have a better answer for you in the spring.”

Opponents constantly put the shift on when Jose Ramirez batted left-handed. It worked until last season when Ramirez concentrated on slapping the ball through the left side of the infield with only one player to beat.

Ramirez batted .254 batting left-handed and .290 right-handed in 2021. Last season he hit .295 left-handed and .236 right-handed.

***The other major rule changes involve pitchers. Pitchers now must deliver the ball within 15 seconds of getting it back from the catcher (or after a play) if the bases are empty and 20 seconds if a runner is on base. Along with that, the batter must be in the batter’s box with at least eight seconds left on the pitch clock.

A pitcher will be charged with a ball if he has not started “the motion to deliver a pitch” before the expiration of the clock. Likewise, a batter will be charged with a strike if he isn’t in the batter’s box in time.

The pitch clock was used in the minor leagues last season. Lake County Captains pitchers seemed to have no issues. The change did improve the pace of the game.

The rule change that could have the biggest one is pitchers now will be able to attempt only two pickoff attempts (or stepping off the rubber for any reason) before throwing a pitch to home plate. The goal is to create more stolen base attempts, which will put pressure on the catcher.

If a pitcher steps off the rubber a third time without making a pitch he is charged with a balk.

***Basee will now be 18 inches instead of 15 inches. The goal is to reduce injuries and to increase stolen base attempts.

***Don’t expect much drama in Francona filling out the 26-man roster this season. The Guardians made MLB history when 17 rookies made their debut. There simply aren’t many openings for players such as outfielder George Valera, catcher Bo Naylor or shortstop Bryan Rocchio to play their way onto the roster. Each might be promoted at some point in the season. But it might take an injury in spring training for either to break camp with the Guardians.

The question becomes, is it better for them to play regularly at Triple-A Columbus, or play only occasionally with the Guardians?

First baseman/designated hitter Josh Bell and catcher Mike Zunino are new to the Guardians.

Josh Naylor isn’t new, but he is finally healthy. His right ankle was broken in a collision with Ernie Clement on July 27, 2021. Naylor played in 122 games last season. He homered 20 times, drove in 79 runs and batted .256 despite not being 100 percent physically.

Naylor played only five games in right field last season. He is expected to play more games at that position in 2023. Naylor and Bell can play first base or DH. Oscar Gonzalez can play right field or DH on days when Francona chooses to play Naylor in right and Bell at first.

<