AL Central outlook post-Carlos Correa deal: How do Guardians, White Sox, Twins stack up?
Aug 24, 2022; Houston, Texas, USA; Minnesota Twins shortstop Carlos Correa (4) hits a RBI sacrifice RBI against the Houston Astros in the third inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports
By Zack Meisel, James Fegan, and Dan Hayes
Jan 16, 2023
With the dust settled on most of the offseason moves, including a certain $350 $315 $200 million shortstop returning to Minnesota, our beat writers got together to assess the three contenders in the American League Central (with all due respect to the Tigers and Royals). Zack Meisel (Guardians), James Fegan (White Sox) and Dan Hayes (Twins) discussed where each of their teams stand and gave their early thoughts on the 2023 season.
Fegan: Let’s give a little peek behind the curtain to provide a view of the creative process and also establish what is being discussed in this forum.
Dan Hayes proposed doing this roundtable after publishing his 76th Carlos Correa story of the offseason, then pushed it to Monday because he was busy publishing his 77th Correa story of the offseason. The topic of this roundtable is how the return of Correa affects the balance of the AL Central … or how it affects the balance of Dan Hayes. He covers the team that employs Correa, if you were not aware.
Meisel: Dan, true or false: You were the one who administered Correa’s physical with the Twins.
Hayes: True. I walked into the room, asked him if he was breathing and held up two fingers. When he said, “Two,” I yelled out, “Welcome to the Twins!” And while that development is great for fans and perhaps ticket sales, TV and radio ratings, and the organization’s business model in general, the real winners here are the media, who now have a go-to quote/storyteller, interesting dude guaranteed to be around for the next six seasons. If you two thought I was annoying before, just wait.
Also, I’d like to clear this up before we go any further. James, that was my 86th Correa story of the offseason, and I’ve already written 11 more in the last two hours. Now it’s about figuring out when to publish them for maximum effect.
In all seriousness, what do you guys think this does for the division’s competitive landscape? How much of an effect can one move have?
Meisel: Correa was on the Twins last season, right?
Hayes: Yes, but with the way injuries unfolded, you could have played for them in that mid-September Twins-Guardians series, my dude.
Meisel: So shouldn’t you be celebrating the arrival of the new team trainer and not the shortstop whose surgically repaired right ankle is supposedly comprised of graham cracker crumbs?
Fegan: If there’s one thing I know, it’s that a team that got mega-injured last season definitely won’t just go and get mega-injured the next season all over again. Folks, that simply doesn’t happen.
Hayes: I’d like to clear up any misconceptions right here and now. Correa doesn’t even have a leg there anymore. It’s just a hologram.
Meisel: It’s amazing what they can do with those now. I watched Tupac perform with Snoop Dogg that way a few years ago.
Carlos Correa (Ken Blaze / USA Today)
Hayes: It is undoubtedly strange how an organization that has such little financial margin for error compared to San Francisco and the New York Mets, would just leap into this deal after Correa failed two physicals. But here’s why the Twins did it, the short version: It’s a lot easier to forecast how a player will age for six years versus 12 or 13, like the deals those other teams were offering. Also, Correa is 28 and hasn’t had issues to this point. The Twins also saw the way he physically prepares for the season and for each game — how he manages himself during the season — and they got a good look at the ankle during their first physical last March. They know there are questions, but accessing him for six years is worth the risk. There’s nobody out there they could have brought in for $200 million who has as much potential for positive impact.
Fegan: Wow, fascinating. You should write an article about this!
Hayes: I’ve written two. Thanks for reading. I just copied and pasted everything from the first and slapped on a new headline and photo before publishing. Pretty much anything Correa is popping. Next I plan to ask him his favorite snack food and write about it just to do a heat check.
Fegan: OK, to finally address the premise of this piece: Yes, to borrow one of the terms all my readers use 800 times as often as they should, I viewed the Twins’ AL Central hopes as a little “unserious” before they made the move to retain Correa. Without him, there seemed to be — for all of these teams really — a wave of trades they might still pull off to make everything look more fully realized. But crystallizing the middle of the order at the most premium position on the infield, while providing more of a bridge to relying on Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee as up-the-middle producers, really ties the room together.
I’m back to thinking three teams can win the division when they play to their capabilities. In a completely on-paper world, I might be most skeptical of the Guardians, but they’re the team that seems to be the best at actually playing to their capabilities.
Meisel: I think people get mired too often in the thought process of, “Team A did this last year and then this during the offseason, so that equates to this.” Every year is its own animal, especially in the somewhat sorry AL Central. The White Sox have a new manager (Pedro Grifol) and, perhaps, just a new vibe in general. The Guardians will rely on a bunch of kids to either maintain their production from last year or take another step forward. A lot could happen there. And the Twins have new … uniforms. OK, yes, if they’re healthy, they’re certainly more formidable than they demonstrated in September. At minimum, Minnesota’s lineup is legitimate.
Josh Bell (Orlando Ramirez / USA Today)
I’ll say this about the Guardians: They addressed their primary deficiencies by adding first baseman/DH Josh Bell to replace the Franmil Reyes/Owen Miller disaster and catcher Mike Zunino to replace the Austin Hedges/Luke Maile disaster. And even though they had 17 major-league debuts last season, we still haven’t seen their top prospects, who could arrive this summer. All of that said, there’s still a wide array of potential outcomes for the Guardians. They’ll be leaning on some significant question marks, such as Oscar Gonzalez, Aaron Civale, Zach Plesac and Myles Straw. They do have depth, though, if things go awry. I still think another established starting pitcher (a No. 2-3 type) or another right-handed bat would help, but I suspect those moves will be addressed, if needed, in July. (For what it’s worth, Cleveland’s payroll is projected to be in the neighborhood of $85 million, or a little more than half of the Twins’ payroll.)
Christian Vázquez (Erik Williams / USA Today)
Hayes: I really liked a few of the Twins’ pre-Correa transactions that most fans weren’t moved by. Catcher Christian Vázquez will handle the staff better than Gary Sánchez did and hit 200 fewer grounders to shortstop. Joey Gallo is an elite outfield defender in the corners, runs the bases very well and is a horrible season removed from averaging 3.1 WAR in non-COVID seasons from 2017 to 2021. Plus, the Twins plan to put him in center. In Kyle Farmer, they added a utilityman who can play shortstop.
But even with that trio and Correa, I don’t consider the Twins the division favorites. The White Sox’s power potential, should they reach it, along with their rotation, makes them extremely dangerous, even if they are flawed and currently down a closer with Liam Hendriks beginning treatment for non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Cleveland was so impressive last year despite its youth, and seemingly always develops pitchers. The Guardians have already done this; they know how to get there.
Those factors can’t be overlooked. Neither should the questions surrounding the Twins.
Kenta Maeda is coming off Tommy John surgery in September 2021 and Tyler Mahle had shoulder trouble after the Twins acquired him at the trade deadline. Jorge López needs to rebound or the bullpen will have questions (that’s not at all daunting), and the 26-man roster features a number of position players who had health issues last year.
Yes, the Twins did add a new trainer with great credentials in Nick Paparesta. But it’s hard to easily wipe away the images from last season of their Double-A roster in the majors in September and October. The Twins have to do a lot to be taken seriously.
Luis Robert (Thomas Shea / USA Today)
Fegan: I watched too many games to not understand the rampant White Sox cynicism, but a core with the talent level of Luis Robert, Eloy Jiménez, Tim Anderson, Dylan Cease, Lance Lynn — all right, I’m not going to list the whole roster, but this team should have a reasonably high ceiling. And I’m more than willing to entertain the idea that the difference a new manager could make with this group is … significant. Talking about hitting home runs is the first step toward actually hitting them, perhaps.
But Cleveland’s potential to respond to shortfalls in performance with major-league-ready farm depth is not something the White Sox can presently match. Whether it’s catcher, the back of the rotation or right field, there are a few more spots on this roster teetering on uncertainty than is becoming for a contender, let alone a team that viewed itself as a perennial division contender before last year’s shipwreck. And the news about their beloved, dominant closer — who made a lot of threadbare leads stand up last year — is certainly not the opening to 2023 that fans wanted to see to believe that everything is going to break right this year.
Any team that can actually play makes the playoffs these days, though. So if this coaching staff can get their core guys to bang, I think they should be there. Even if the Guardians are still feisty, or Correa is dumping a bottle of champagne over Hayes’ head in October.
Hayes: I hope not. I hear champagne burns your eyes. That’s rude, James. You’re just being mean now and hoping for a player to inflict pain upon me. First you mocked me, now you’re wishing me bodily harm. I will not forget this.