Ten Cleveland Guardians predictions for a promising 2023
Aug 24, 2022; San Diego, California, USA; Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez (11) gestures after hitting a home run against the San Diego Padres during the fourth inning at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
By Zack Meisel
CLEVELAND — Think about how much has changed in a year.
Last January, baseball stood still, and we were left to talk ourselves into Bradley Zimmer, ponder José Ramírez trades and evaluate commissioner Rob Manfred’s negotiating tactics. It was bleak.
But the lockout ended, Ramírez signed a long-term deal, Zimmer lasted one day of the regular season with Cleveland, and the Guardians made a run to the American League Division Series. Now, this team comes with some actual expectations and some discussion topics that aren’t painful for fans to broach.
Before we forecast the year ahead, let’s stagger down memory lane and revisit the 10 predictions from this space a year ago.
1. The Guardians will trade for an established corner outfielder.
Nope. Well, I mean, they tried. They came up empty. And then they pivoted to the kids. And, somehow, that worked.
2. Franmil Reyes will hit at least 40 home runs.
Nope. I used to predict this every year. I’ll have to find a new shtick. What a rapid downfall for Reyes.
3. The middle-infield puzzle will remain a confounding logjam.
True. There’s a bit more clarity because Andrés Giménez blossomed into an All-Star. But plenty of questions remain about the future for Amed Rosario, Gabriel Arias, Tyler Freeman, Brayan Rocchio … and on and on.
4. Logan Allen — no, the other one — and Cody Morris will be two names you can’t stop discussing this summer.
Remember Logan S. Allen making four appearances for the Guardians last April? Me neither. After a strong stretch at Double-A Akron, Logan T. Allen had an underwhelming showing in his first taste of Triple A. As for Morris, if not for an injury, he might’ve broken camp with the big-league team. Instead, he became someone worth discussing late in the year.
5. You or someone you know will be clamoring for George Valera to be promoted to the majors by July.
Maybe not. But it could happen this year. You and everyone you know were clamoring for, well, anyone to take over for Reyes. Oscar Gonzalez did a sufficient job.
6. Shane Bieber will piece together an ace-worthy season.
Yep. There was initial skepticism when he came out of the gate throwing 90 mph, but he located and mixed pitches at an elite level once again.
7. The bullpen will be a team strength.
Was it ever. It felt like the club’s relievers didn’t allow a run from July through October.
8. José Ramírez will not be traded.
Ding ding ding. I tried explaining that the seeds were there for a contract extension, in large part because of how comfortable Ramírez is in Cleveland. If not for his insistence on executing a deal, though, this prediction would’ve been wrong.
9. Many will forget the rebrand even happened.
Winning helped. There are still dissenters, of course, but it feels like the Band-Aid was ripped off eons ago.
10. An expanded postseason setup will help Cleveland’s cause.
At the time, we didn’t know what the playoff format would be. In the end, it didn’t matter. The Guardians won the AL Central, in a fashion no one could have forecasted given their youth.
That wasn’t a terrible effort. Now let’s peer into the crystal ball to see what 2023 has in store for the Guardians.
1. Josh Bell will be one-and-done in Cleveland.
Josh Bell (Ray Acevedo / USA Today)
What type of hitter does Bell want to be? He has hit for power in the past. He has hit for average. He has swung for the fences. He has startled every earthworm by pounding pitches into the ground. There’s been a different Bell each year. He seems to think he’ll benefit from the new shift limitations. “If I can be a line-drive hitter first, with a little bit of extension, I can drive the ball to the gaps and get them over the fence. But if I’m focused so much on pull-side homers or trying to hit the ball as high as I can, the pitchers across the league are too good, and defensive alignments have been so good in the past that the game was getting too hard in regards to that.”
What will fuel a strong season for Bell, though, is why he should fit so seamlessly into manager Terry Francona’s lineup: For a guy with enough power to smack 30-plus home runs, he doesn’t strike out all that much, and he draws a ton of walks. That gives him an awfully high floor, production-wise, and will lead to him opting out of his contract after one season to again explore the free-agent market.
2. José Ramírez will put together his magnum opus.
If we want to get wild, let’s go ahead and say Ramírez will, at last, win his first AL MVP Award, after a slew of close calls. But let’s be honest: Shohei Ohtani’s presence in the AL (for one more season, at least) makes that difficult. It took Aaron Judge setting the AL home run record to unseat Ohtani.
Before tearing a ligament in his right hand last summer, Ramírez logged a .305/.397/.642 slash line. Those are MVP-caliber numbers. He’s healthy now, and he, too, could benefit from the shift restrictions in 2023. Teams have regularly placed an infielder in short right field or used a four-outfielder alignment when Ramírez batted. Not anymore. He’s positioned to enjoy a career year, one worthy of some hardware.
3. A newly converted starting pitcher will wind up being a key member of the bullpen.
It worked for Eli Morgan in 2022, though his shift to the bullpen stemmed from the shortened spring training and the club’s intent to ease its starters into the season. This time, the organization has so much starting pitching depth in the upper levels that such a move might be a necessity. Maybe it’ll be Hunter Gaddis, Xzavion Curry, Joey Cantillo or Cody Morris. Maybe it’ll eventually be Zach Plesac. Maybe Daniel Espino will emerge as a late-inning threat in August and September.
Pitchers who could start the year at Triple A: Curry, Gaddis, Cantillo, Morris, Konnor Pilkington, Peyton Battenfield, Logan Allen.
Pitchers who could join them, either at the start of the season or not too long after: Espino, Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, Tanner Burns.
So, uh, the Guardians probably will need to figure something out there. By converting one or two pitchers into a relief role — and it doesn’t have to be permanent, but for, say, Gaddis, it might allow him to limit his arsenal to fastball/changeup, which could result in both pitches playing up — the club could also expedite their path to the majors. The Guardians don’t have much relief depth at Triple A anyway, and it’d be unwise to assume the bullpen will be as dominant as it was in 2022; Tim Herrin is the only reliever on the 40-man roster who hasn’t debuted.
4. Aaron Civale will reassert himself as a No. 2/3 starting pitcher.
“The Chemist” was on his way to a standout season in 2021, with a 3.32 ERA and nearly seven innings per start before a finger injury derailed his campaign. He had a messy 2022, with three injured list stints. But take a peek under the hood:
Civale in 2021, pre-injury: 3.32 ERA, 4.28 FIP, .229/.279/.415 opponent slash line, 2.1 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
Civale in 2022, overall: 4.92 ERA, 3.86 FIP, .249/.300/.424 opponent slash line, 2.0 BB/9, 9.1 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
The difference in ERA can’t be dismissed, because the results are what ultimately matter, but the other numbers are awfully similar and, in some cases, they were even better in 2022.
If this prediction winds up looking foolish, then here’s another: The club will trade for an established starting pitcher in July.
5. Steven Kwan/Myles Straw/Oscar Gonzalez will be the Opening Day outfield alignment, but not the end-of-season outfield alignment.
The jury’s still out on Gonzalez because of his atypical profile. That’s not to take anything away from what he accomplished last season in an unexpected, impressive (and pivotal, team-wise) rookie campaign, or to downplay his skills. Atypical doesn’t have to be a bad thing. He wields a ton of power, decent contact skills and speed. We just need to see what it all translates to over 162 games. Can he make adjustments, exhibit more patience, resist offering at pitches out of the zone and tap into his strength? And can Straw boost his on-base percentage? He spent a few days in Cleveland last month for a hitting clinic. The new rules encourage base-stealing and reward speed, so if Straw can improve upon his abysmal .291 mark from 2022, he could use his wheels to provide more value than “just” his Gold Glove defense. Will Brennan, Will Benson and George Valera are waiting for opportunities if anyone falters.
6. Bo Naylor will lead Cleveland catchers in plate appearances.
Bo Naylor (Frank Jansky / Icon Sportswire)
Here’s what Francona said a few weeks ago when asked where the signing of Mike Zunino might leave Bo Naylor.
“I think we’ve been pretty honest about how much we like Bo Naylor,” Francona said. “Does that mean he’s ready for Opening Day? I don’t know if we’re ready to say that. And if he isn’t, that’s not a knock on him. But let’s let his play dictate how much he’s ready, not what I say in December.”
Zunino said he wanted to help mentor Naylor, and he plans to reach out to initiate that relationship before spring training. Team president Chris Antonetti said he’s hopeful Zunino “can absorb the bulk of the innings behind the plate,” but even Zunino noted there’s been a widespread shift in recent years to catcher timeshares. Only nine players in the majors registered more than 100 games with at least one plate appearance as the catcher last season. J.T. Realmuto led the way with 132 games. Austin Hedges totaled 99 games for Cleveland. Zunino appeared in 36 games for Tampa Bay before undergoing shoulder surgery.
So, even if he starts the year with Triple-A Columbus, Naylor should enter the equation at some point. And if he plays well (or if Zunino disappoints or gets injured), he should earn a larger share of the workload.
Another prediction: Naylor will be the only recipient of a celebratory headbutt from his brother this season. Bo and Josh should provide some special sibling moments this year.
7. Fewer than 17 rookies will debut … but a couple of Top 100 prospects will be among them.
We witnessed a once-in-a-generation rookie invasion last year, when 17 players made their major-league debut for the Guardians, tied for the most in franchise history for a season. And yet, Cleveland’s most prized prospects have yet to join the big-league roster. That should change in 2023. The number of debuts will decrease — though the number of rookies and second-year players will remain jarring — but we’ll see some long-awaited arrivals.
Valera could force his way into the lineup. Espino, Williams and Bibee could pitch their way onto the big-league team (if they can bypass a bunch of their colleagues at Columbus). It’s difficult to chart a near-immediate path to the majors for Rocchio, but he’ll start the season at Columbus, a phone call away.
Even after the Great Rookie Parade of 2022, there are well-regarded reinforcements who could aid the team’s cause in 2023. (More on them in the coming days.)
8. Angel Martinez will be Cleveland’s next Top 100 prospect.
A new addition to the 40-man roster, Martinez is likely ticketed for Double-A Akron to start the season. He’ll turn 21 in a few weeks. He posted a .288/.384/.477 slash line at High-A Lake County last season, demonstrating power, speed and plate discipline. At the end of the year, he got a taste of Double A, where he was nearly four years younger than the average player. The only issue is, if he masters Double A this year, will there be room for him in Columbus?
As it stands, Cleveland has six Top 100 prospects, per MLB Pipeline: Espino, Williams, Bibee, Valera, Rocchio and Bo Naylor.
9. The middle-infield logjam won’t start to clear up until next winter.
Rosario will do what he always does: rack up a bunch of hits, run amok, and send fans sprinting to opposite sides of the debate about whether he should remain the team’s shortstop or if the Guardians should turn to one of their prospects. Rosario will play out the season as the shortstop, leaving Arias and Freeman in utility roles, before a competition is held in spring 2024 to determine Giménez’s next middle-infield partner.
10. The AL Central will be a two-team race from about June on.
The Royals and Tigers have reached the “Gulp, is this just not going to work?” stage of their lengthy rebuilds. The Twins seem directionless. The White Sox are hoping health and a new manager will translate into better results for a talented roster. The Guardians won’t sneak up on anyone this year.
The AL Central receives a lot of criticism, and rightfully so, though the National League Central isn’t exactly filled with juggernauts, either, and 60 percent of the AL West was dreadful last season.
So much in October hinges on matchups and postseason randomness, and my crystal ball isn’t quite that clear. But I’ll say Cleveland claims the AL Central again, with the White Sox presenting a far more formidable challenge in September than they did in 2022. Then, Cleveland and Seattle will clash in the ALCS in a rematch of 1995. Kenny Lofton, who sealed that series with an unforgettable 180-foot scamper, will throw the ceremonial first pitch before the first game at Progressive Field.
