Cleveland Sports Forum

Cleveland Guardians mega year-end mailbag: Amed Rosario, rotation questions, rule changes


By Zack Meisel
Dec 29, 2022
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CLEVELAND — For the last time this year, let’s go straight to your questions, which have been edited for the sake of clarity.

Can you please get off Amed Rosario’s case? Winning teams keep their nucleus and build on it. This obsession with selling your best players and replacing them with unproven maybes if you can get a potentially halfway decent return is how losers think. — Mickey E.

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You’re going to hate the Shane Bieber dialogue next winter. If you don’t think this is how the Guardians (and many teams) operate, then I don’t know what to tell you. I write an occasional article about it because this is what front offices consider, not because I have a clause in my contract with The Athletic that lands me a bonus if the guy gets traded.

If Rosario had three years of team control remaining, it wouldn’t be a discussion. They would keep him. If the team was in rebuild mode, it wouldn’t be a discussion. They would trade him. Instead, we have nuance.

That doesn’t mean they’re going to deal him — I wrote last week why it’s quite unlikely — just like they didn’t deal him over the summer, despite plenty of conversations about it in the weeks leading up to the deadline.

Who plays the most games at shortstop in 2023? — Mike L.

[Stares Mickey in the eye] Amed Rosario.

Zack, all over the interwebs I keep seeing post after post and tweet after tweet about how Oscar Gonzalez will regress and Myles Straw is finished and Cal Quantrill has gotten lucky. Please give us five reasons the Guardiac Kids will be BETTER next season rather than regress. — Nathan T.

1. José Ramírez: healthy, with better lineup protection and with limits on shifting. Look out.

2. Bieber, another year removed from his shoulder injury and now armed with the confidence of knowing he can thrive without throwing 95 mph.

3. Josh Bell. He’s good.

4. Aaron Civale, without the interruptions. I still think he can pitch like he did in the first half of 2021, when he was emerging as a front-line starter.

5. They aren’t rookies anymore. Well, some of them. The lights won’t be as bright. The nerves won’t be as debilitating. The task at hand won’t be as daunting. I don’t know if it will all add up to a better record, and some young players will undoubtedly hit speed bumps, but this should be a more formidable team. They won’t be devoting 800 plate appearances to Owen Miller, Oscar Mercado and Ernie Clement, after all.


Aaron Civale posted a 3.32 ERA in 15 starts in the first half of the 2021 season. (Peter Aiken / USA Today)
What is a “run production coordinator”? — Chris W.

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That’s the fancy title for Jason Esposito, who is joining the Guardians’ team of major-league hitting coaches. He replaces Justin Toole, who served as the club’s hitting analyst for the last few seasons but left to become the Mariners’ director of player development. Esposito will assist Chris Valaika and Victor Rodriguez as well as pore over video to scout each night’s opposing starting pitcher. As hitting coach at Double-A Akron and Triple-A Columbus in recent years, Esposito has worked with many of the Guardians’ young hitters. Will Brennan, for instance, credited Esposito with helping to pave his path to the majors.

How will the rule changes in 2023 specifically impact the Guardians’ playing style? — Jonathan O.

The pitch clock, limits on pickoff attempts and larger bases should place a greater emphasis on stolen bases, which should aid the Guardians, who ranked third in the majors in stolen bases and third with an 82 percent success rate. As Bell said, “The changes in the game are trying to promote teams like the Guardians.”

Bell seems to think he’ll benefit from the shift restrictions and said “a lot of lefties have been waiting for this moment for a long time. … You have a runner at first base, you roll a ball over and you get rewarded and now it’s first and third as opposed to a double-play ball with the shift.”

Defensively, Andrés Giménez’s Gold Glove defense at second base should pay dividends since the days of sticking three defenders on one side of the infield are over. Having a first baseman with some range will be valuable, too, so that could place pressure on Bell and Josh Naylor to cover more ground. And with stolen bases being encouraged, catchers will have increased responsibility. Mike Zunino has been a tick above league average in throwing out runners during his career.

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Every team is going into a new season saying, “Our goal is to win the World Series.” OK. What would you say is the Guardians’ (unofficial but realistic) goal for 2023 with respect to their potential (talent, resources, etc.)? Are they OK with winning the division and everything else is just the icing on the cake? Thank you for your endless efforts digging into this great franchise and giving us your insights on the Cleveland Guardians! — Johannes G.

It’s been three-quarters of a century since they’ve won a title. Shouldn’t their realistic aim be to end that drought? To your point, though, I think a deeper playoff run should be the expectation and serve as validation that last fall was no fluke. The Guardians addressed their primary weaknesses this winter, and while the roster is not infallible, there should be no reason they can’t acquire whatever upgrades they need between now and the trade deadline.

Will Josh Naylor be able to play outfield after his injury? — RJ W.

Manager Terry Francona has gone out of his way multiple times this winter to mention that he’d at least like that to be an option.

They have been talking about using this glut of prospects in trades to upgrade other areas for the last two years but seem reluctant to pull the trigger. What gives? — Michael T.

One driving factor is the organization’s starting pitcher timeline. There’s obviously no guarantee Bieber will be a Guardian past 2024. Triston McKenzie emerged as a front-line starter last season and Quantrill is a workhorse, but who else can the team be confident it can rely on in the near future? They’ve been reluctant to include Top 100 prospects Daniel Espino, Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee in trades because they know they’ll need them to help usher in the next great Cleveland rotation, and they’ll want that transition to be as seamless as possible at some point in the next year or two. That’s not to say all three are future aces — odds would indicate maybe one will be — but with high ceilings, they could eventually replace Bieber or Civale or Zach Plesac. That doesn’t explain why there’s still a surplus of middle-infield prospects, but teams — including Oakland in the Sean Murphy talks — have been fixated on the Guardians’ pitching.

How might the Guardians use Will Brennan next season? — George T.

As the first outfielder in line for a bunch of playing time should Steven Kwan, Myles Straw or Oscar Gonzalez falter or land on the injured list. For what it’s worth, FanGraphs’ Steamer projection system forecasts a 115 wRC+ for Brennan, meaning offensive output 15 percent better than league average. FanGraphs’ ZiPS model isn’t as kind, projecting a .687 OPS.

Would you rather try to upgrade the back end of the starting rotation or try to find another bat (e.g., Bryan Reynolds)? I’d rather go for the pitching upgrade myself given I don’t trust Plesac or Civale. — Jacob M.

The Astros always have starting pitching depth, and that shouldn’t change despite Justin Verlander relocating. The Yankees added Carlos Rodón to an already strong group that includes Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes and Luis Severino. The Mariners are sneakily loaded with Luis Castillo, Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby. The Blue Jays boast Alek Manoah, Kevin Gausman and now Chris Bassitt. The White Sox are hoping for rebounds from Lucas Giolito and/or Mike Clevinger to round out a rotation that features Dylan Cease, Lance Lynn and Michael Kopech.

This is all on paper and pitchers regress and surprise every year — maybe Cody Morris will emerge as a reliable force for Cleveland, for instance — but the teams standing in the Guardians’ way in the American League all employ starters who wouldn’t seem out of place on a mound in October. It’s one thing for the Guardians to hope Civale or Plesac enjoys a revival, but it might behoove them to have another near-certainty at the top or middle of the rotation. They can acquire that missing piece in July if they prefer, and they should have the trade ammunition to outbid other contenders.

Since it’s Hall of Fame season, are the Cleveland Guardians invested at all in a player like CC Sabathia making the Hall of Fame, or maybe more to the point Kenny Lofton? If/when either of them get into the Hall, would they retire their numbers? Would there be a ceremony? — James K.

Sabathia, who will land on the ballot in two years alongside Ichiro Suzuki, is expected to enter Cooperstown one day as a member of the Yankees. He spent 11 seasons in New York and eight in Cleveland. I’d imagine the Guardians would host a ceremony for him during that summer, though. He maintains ties to the organization and visited a few times last season. Sabathia, by the way, is one of 19 pitchers in the sport’s history to total at least 3,000 strikeouts. The only members of that club not in the Hall of Fame: Curt Schilling, Max Scherzer (that’ll change), Verlander (that’ll change) and Roger Clemens.

Lofton would have to be elected via a committee. (And he’s deserving of strong consideration, despite falling off the ballot in his initial year in 2013.) He’d certainly represent Cleveland, having spent 10 of his 17 seasons with the franchise (and no more than one season anywhere else).

Induction into the Hall is typically the requirement for the club to retire a number. Cleveland’s retired numbers: Earl Averill (3), Lou Boudreau (5), Larry Doby (14), Mel Harder (18), Bob Feller (19), Frank Robinson (20), Bob Lemon (21), Jim Thome (25) and Jackie Robinson (42). Only Harder, who pitched for the team for 20 seasons, is not in the Hall.

Any update on Daniel Espino’s health? — David W.

Espino returned to his native Panama after the season to go through some physical therapy. He’s expected to travel to Arizona to complete his offseason training, and the organization expects him “to be fully ready for spring training,” according to team president Chris Antonetti.

As we head to 2023, anything worth sharing on what you’re going to be doing for the site in the coming year? Any changes worth sharing on Guards coverage? — Bill L.

A year ago, we were mired in the early stages of a soul-sucking, 99-day lockout. When it ended, there were debates about the name change, Ramírez’s future and how many Bradley Zimmer at-bats we would have to endure. It was, admittedly, a tricky time to cover this team. (And my wife and I had our first child on the way, which added a personal layer of complexity.)

That’s all in the past. Spring training is around the corner, incredibly, and the Guardians are carrying well-earned, lofty expectations. They busted onto the scene last year, surprising anyone who didn’t have a locker in that clubhouse. But now it’s time we really get to know these new faces. I’m a planner, and I can honestly say I’ve never had more projects, more fun ideas and big swings mapped out ahead of a new year. Yes, we’ll finish up the Cleveland Baseball Countdown that fell victim to the immediate shift from lockout to new season last spring. I have several trips booked for early in the year to tell stories that need to be told. We’ll of course analyze and argue about the roster until we can all say Pilkington 10 times fast. More than anything, I’ll continue to do my best to take you behind the scenes, to shed light on the humans on and off the field, and on the thought processes behind every decision on the diamond and in the front office. Whether I’m doing so from Arizona, Seattle for the season opener, Progressive Field or anywhere in between, the goal is to ensure you’re reading coverage you can’t get elsewhere.

Talk to you in the new year.

Note: There were about 200 questions submitted for this mailbag. If I didn’t answer yours, you can always email me at zmeisel@theathletic.com. Sometimes I avoid including certain questions because I plan to tackle them at length in a separate, future article.

Jason Lloyd

Guardians

Is it better for the Guardians’ attendance and support if the Browns are good or bad? The Browns records seem to have no impact on fan support, yet the Guardians are seemingly ignored. I understand the difference between eight games and 81, but as a baseball fan and a person who doesn’t care for the NFL, it appears as if the Browns can do no wrong that results in people skipping games, yet if Paul Dolan sneezes, it causes people to boycott the Guardians. — Mark P.

You’re on the right track, but looking at the wrong team. The Cavs and Guardians are the two teams fighting over limited dollars in Cleveland, which is why I’m curious to see how this plays out. This is the first time I can recall all three teams in town being good at the same time. I say “good” realizing the Browns are out of the playoff race and this season has been a massive disappointment. I also believe having a franchise quarterback means your team always has a chance. We’ll find out next season if that’s true.




When Jacobs Field opened in 1994, the Indians sucked dollars away from Art Modell and the Browns. We wrote a story on how stunned Modell was that the Indians were taking his business away. But the Browns are such a behemoth that they are financially supported regardless of record.

The Cavs and Guardians are different. LeBron James created a generation of basketball fans that previously did not exist here. As a result, the Cavs had better support even in their lean years. Unfortunately, the Guardians typically finish third despite traditionally being the best-run organization in town. It’s unfortunate.


Will the Guardians fill the Progressive Field seats next season? (Frank Jansky / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
David Blitzer is the new Guardians minority owner. Have you asked or heard what his philosophy/culture/payroll ideas are if he should take over the team in a few years? — Andrew L.

I think it’s fair to say the budget will go up if/when Blitzer takes a controlling interest in the Guardians. What’s curious to me is most of Blitzer’s deals in sports include Josh Harris, too. Harris Blitzer Sports & Entertainment owns and operates both the Philadelphia 76ers and the New Jersey Devils. I have not heard Harris’ name involved in anything regarding the Guardians deal. Of course, that can change when Blitzer has majority control.

Those who have read me know I’m big on stability in franchises. I firmly believe it’s impossible to win with constant turnover, which is why the Guardians have been so successful for so many years. Ownership stays out of the way and lets them work. Go look at the turnover with the Sixers and Devils. I’m concerned about whether the Guardians can maintain this type of stability under new ownership.

But spending also is vital. I’ve long believed the Guardians are the mom-and-pop shop trying to compete against the corporate elite. When Blitzer’s group takes over, the Guardians should be among the corporate elite in spending.

Given the less-than-anticipated return Oakland got for Murphy and seeing him lock up long term with Atlanta on a very team-friendly deal, did the Guardians miss a big opportunity here? I know the organization is high on Bo Naylor, but his ceiling is literally where Sean Murphy is presently. — Chris R.

I believe the Guardians vigorously pursued Murphy, but as our Zack Meisel has pointed out on numerous occasions, part of what makes this group so good is they draw a line in negotiations and they don’t cross it. Like, ever. Oakland liked what it received better than what Cleveland was offering. I was a little surprised something didn’t get done. To your point about ceilings, I agree the organization will be ecstatic if Naylor gets to Murphy’s level of production, especially since he’ll be doing it on a contract that is a fraction of what Murphy is getting from Atlanta.

Looking at the extremely team-friendly contract Murphy signed with Atlanta, does the Guardians’ $6 million deal with Mike Zunino look even worse? — David P.

I don’t think the Zunino deal is bad at all. Would you rather have Zunino for $6 million or Austin Hedges for $5 million? You have to think about what the Guardians want out of that $6 million: A mentor for Bo Naylor and a buffer year. Is it terrible if they each catch 70-ish games? Maybe one catches 70 and the other 85. Zunino, who is terrific defensively, can help Naylor’s receiving skills develop. If by the end of 2023 the Guardians will know whether they can commit to Naylor as their catcher of the future, it will be $6 million well spent.

Can you grade the offseason acquisitions (Josh Bell and Mike Zunino) of the Guardians? — James G.

I loved the Bell signing and thought it filled a big need. I’m looking at it as a one-year deal because Bell will likely return to free agency if he has even a moderately good season here. But that one season could be all the Guardians need to determine if their young hitters are as good as they think or if they’ll have to return to the trade/free agency market next winter.

I would’ve preferred Murphy to Zunino, but I’ve followed Zunino since Seattle drafted him. He is an upgrade in power over Hedges and he’s very good defensively. Hedges meant so much to the clubhouse that I’m curious to see how that component is replaced. But $6 million is a minor investment that could pay major dividends.

Do you see the Guardians following the same path as the Braves and extending young players within their first couple of years in the majors? I think extending Kwan, Gimenez and McKenzie now should be a priority — Kyle L.

Who are the top extension candidates for the Guardians this winter? Are pursuing those kinds of deals even an organizational priority anymore? Seems like the exception of deals that cost so little it makes no sense to sign them (Straw and Clase last offseason), they have moved away from locking up their pre-arbitration players in recent years when it used to be a regular practice for them. — Ryan C.

I’ve told Zack Meisel for months I’m going to write this story, and eventually, I will. But here’s the sneak peek: Andres Gimenez, Oscar Gonzalez, Steven Kwan and Triston McKenzie. I know Gonzalez and even Kwan might be a little premature, but this is the trend in baseball today. Sometimes you have to do it before you have all the data.

I don’t believe the team has moved away from locking up their pre-arbitration players, I believe the players have moved away from thinking it’s a good idea — on the advice of their agents, of course. They tried early with Francisco Lindor and he rejected it. They tried early with Shane Bieber and he rejected it. Every situation is different, of course, and every player values these things differently. But it seems to be reaching the point where you have to get these guys during their rookie year or even before their major-league debut to have any chance at buying out their arbitration years.

Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez both signed six-year deals with the White Sox before their debut, effectively buying out all of their arbitration years. Both deals have worked out well for the team. Seattle signed Evan White to a similar deal before his debut and it has been a huge disappointment for the club. This winter might be the last, best shot at signing guys like Gimenez and McKenzie, both of whom will head to arbitration next winter. Once they hit arbitration and start making real money (by baseball’s standards), signing these types of deals becomes increasingly more difficult. That’s why now might be the perfect time for guys like Kwan and Gonzalez.

Would you trade Straw and move Kwan to CF to make room for another offensive outfielder? — Rusty C.

No, I’ll live with the meager offensive production Straw provides because he is elite defensively. Kwan is elite in left, too. Do we know for certain he’d be a Gold Glove candidate in center? I like two elite outfielders better than one — or none if Kwan struggles. I get the concept of wanting more production out of that spot, but I think the Guardians can live with Straw if he’s the worst hitter in the lineup. It was the combination of Straw and Hedges that was so demoralizing at times last season. Zunino could be a significant upgrade over Hedges or he could hit .180 with more power. His career arc is sort of all over the place.

If George Valera is everything he’s been promised, if Gonzalez proves last season wasn’t a fluke, maybe eventually we’ll get to the point to have the Straw discussion. But I don’t think we’re there yet.

Will Josh Naylor be able to play outfield after his injury? — RJ W.

Manager Terry Francona has gone out of his way multiple times this winter to mention that he’d at least like that to be an option.

That's what they said every winter about Reyes, too.

Ha well "like that to be an option" isn't much of a commitment!

Look Naylor was pretty slow before that injury. Now it's a huge long shot for him to be anything but 1b/DH

Can Naylor keep the weight off or will he balloon like Reyes?

His little brother should race him around the house this winter; Last offseason of course Josh was simply in recovery mode, we can hope this offseason he can do a lot more varied workouts

josh 6-1 250
bo 6-0 195

Would you trade Straw and move Kwan to CF to make room for another offensive outfielder? — Rusty C.

Is that you, Rusty?

No, did not see that until after I posted it !

The Cleveland Guardians roster is pretty deep - but not complete

By Chris Slocombe

Dec 29, 2022

The Cleveland Guardians front office and coaching staff found out a lot in 2022. Sixteen players made their debut, and some are cementing themselves as core pieces moving forward. Then, this offseason, the front office went out and added to the roster in the forms of Josh Bell and Mike Zunino (so far). What this all means is that the Guardians are pretty much set with their 26-man roster and have some depth to boot.

The 2022 season saw the emergence of rookies Steven Kwan and Oscar Gonzalez as they helped to solidified the outfield. Others like Andrés Giménez, Eli Morgan, Sam Hentges, and Triston McKenzie took the next step in their development and began to define their roles on the team.

With that said, when envisioning the Guardians' Opening Day roster, it's pretty clear who is likely to make that cut; arguably 22 or 23 of the spots are likely already accounted for.

For a point of reference here is the projected starting lineup; Zunino, Bell, Gimenez, José Ramírez, Amed Rosario, Steven Kwan, Myles Straw, Gonzalez, and Josh Naylor.

Looking at the starting rotation, Shane Bieber, McKenzie, Cal Quantrill, and Aaron Civale are all locks.

The Guardians' bench is likely to be comprised of one of the Wills (Brennan or Benson), Gabriel Arias, and probably Tyler Freeman.

Finally, the bullpen will likely be helmed by Emmanuel Clase, James Karinchak, Nick Sandlin, Trevor Stephan, Hentges, Enyel De Los Santos, Morgan, and possibly recent 40-man addition Tim Herrin.

Now, I am assuming here that Zach Plesac isn't long for this roster, otherwise he most certainly slots into the the starting rotation.

But then again, as was the case last year, and will likely be the same in 2024, the Guardians need to learn what they have in the likes of Cody Morris, Konnor Pilkington, Peyton Battenfield, Xzavion Curry, Hunter Gaddis, Joey Cantillo, and Logan Allen.

And by the way, the second wave of starters coming between 2024 and 2025 will have you salivating even more when thinking about their future.

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MLB.com Predicts Jose Ramirez To Win 2023 MVP

By Tommy Wild | Last updated 12/29/22

As most of the high-impact free agents have signed with their new teams and organizations begin to set their focus on 2023 Spring Training, we can finally start to make predictions and guesses on how players will perform next season.

One player that is expected to have a big season is Jose Ramirez . MLB.com even has him projected to be the American League's MVP.

It's hard to argue with this projection.

MLB changed some rules heading into next year and the shift will finally be eliminated which has held Ramirez back in the past.

Jose also played through a torn ligament in his thumb that he suffered all the way back in June. He was building a pretty strong case for MVP before this.

Even with the thumb injury, Ramirez went on to slash .280/.355/.514 with 126 RBI and 29 home runs. There's a reason that fans call him the "goat."

Teams will also now be forced to pitch to Ramirez more next season. He was intentionally walked 20 times which was the most in MLB. (Yes, this was more than Aaron Judge who was intentionally walked 19 times during his MVP season.)

Now Cleveland has a true power hitter in the clean-up slot. One of the biggest moves that the Guardians made this offseason was bringing in reigning Silver Slugger Josh Bell to play first base and hit behind Ramirez.

J-Ram has never won an MVP, but he's also been a contender year in and year out. He's been a top-five finisher four times in his career and was the runner-up during the 2020 season. Ramirez also finished third in MVP voting in both the 2017 and 2018 seasons.

Guardians fans already had a lot of reasons to be excited about 2023 and this projection is just another one to add to the list.

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roster is pretty deep - but not complet

He doesn't quite tell us what's incomplete; of course there'll be a 2nd catcher. C Meibrys Viloria signed to AAA contract is a possibility of course. He hits left which is OK for platooning. He's a pretty awful offensive contributor 201/270/282 career slash line.
He must have developed a defensive reputation early on since he hit the majors at age 21 which is strikingly unusual for a catcher. see one positive offensive stat [or at least lack of a negative: only 5 GIDP in 34 "opportunties" which is a catcher's weak point

And he strongly implies he's on the anti-Plesac bandwagon. I'd be satisfied giving Morris, Pilkington, Curry opportunities to compete for that role in spring training. Or they could invest $10M for some career 5th starter.

I know it is Colombia, but Meibrys Viloria is tied for the league lead in homers with 8.
He also has thrown out 10 of 14 runners attempting to steal.
He's caught 19 games, dh'd 5 games, and played 1st base in 8 games.
His offensive numbers dipped a bit. Before his last game of the year yesterday, he was 0-12.
He bounced back last night to go 2-4, 1 BB, 2 R, 2 RBI
Let's see what spring training tells us.

SEASON NUMBERS

Meibrys Villoria

AB 112, R 36, H 27, 2B 5, 3B 1, HR 8, RBI 32, TB 58, AVG .241, SLG .518, OBP .442, OPS .990, BB 36, HBP 5, SO 25, GDP 5, SF 1, SH 0, SB 1, CS 0

CHANCES 249, PO 226, A 21, E 2, FLDP .992, DP 4, SBA 14, CSB 10, PB 3

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Dayan Frias

AB 29, R 8, H 8, 2B 4, 3B 1, HR 0, RBI 4, TB 14, AVG .276, SLG .483, OBP .432, OPS .915, BB 7, HBP 1, SO 8, GDP 1, SF 0, , H 0, SB 1, CS 1

G 8, CHANCES 31, PO 15, A 14, E 2, FLDP .935, DP 4, SBA 0, CSB 0

(Frias was a late entry to the season and played the final 8 games of the season.)

Incredible 2022 stats -- 1 for each team

Guardians: Transport yourself to the beginning of the season – rookie Steven Kwan made a strong first impression by simply not missing on swings. His first miss came on the 117th MLB pitch he saw, and it was a foul tip, which officially counts as a missed swing. The 116 pitches he saw prior was the longest streak of pitches seen without a swing and miss for a batter to start his career, among players to debut since the 2000 season, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. And it wasn’t just beginner’s luck: Kwan finished second in MLB in contact rate.

Guardians Sign Meibrys Viloria To Minor League Deal

By Maury Ahram | December 4, 2022 at 10:17am CDT

The Guardians have announced the signing of free agent catcher Meibrys Viloria to a non-roster Minor League deal with an invitation to Spring Training.

Originally signed in 2013 by the Royals, Viloria progressed through Kansas City’s minor league system before jumping from Class-A Advanced to the majors in late 2018 shortly after his 21st birthday with Drew Butera traded and Salvador Perez nursing an injury. He would hit .259/.286/.333 in 29 plate appearances before returning to the minors at the conclusion of the season.

After beginning the 2019 season in Double-A, Viloria returned to the majors in a permanent role, finishing the year with a weak .211/.259/.286 line in 148 plate appearances. He bounced between the major league team and alternate training site during the 2020 season before being designated for assignment (DFA’d) in early 2021 and being outrighted to Triple-A. There he would hit .242/.368/.338, but would not make another appearance with the Royals and was granted free agency after the season.

Viloria joined the Rangers on a minor league deal ahead of the 2022 season. He spent most of the season in Triple-A, hitting .280/.422/.440 while putting up a much weaker .159/.280/.270 at the major league level. Viloria was DFA’d in early November, claimed by the Giants five days later, and DFA’d for the second time in the span of two weeks before electing free agency.

Both of Cleveland’s 2022 catching core, Austin Hedges and Luke Maile, entered free agency after the 2022 season, with Maile recently inking a deal with the Reds. Bo Naylor, the Guardians’ No.5 prospect ranked by MLB.com, is currently penciled in as the starting backstop, but the team has been connected to Sean Murphy and will presumedly fortify the position during the offseason.

With a career .201/.270/.283 line over parts of four seasons at the major league level, Viloria will likely compete for a backup role with the Guardians. However, for a team that values defense, Viloria has thrown out a strong 36% of runners.

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Going Deep: Meibrys Viloria

Meibrys Viloria may be a name you've not heard yet, but he may be about to force his way onto the fantasy scene.

This article sprang from that conflicting feeling fantasy players (most often football) often get when hearing about a great player getting injured. I find it’s usually a four step process:

“Oh no, Player X got injured.”
“Player X has that great backup, Player Y, who can finally play!”
“I shouldn’t be this excited about a guy getting hurt.”
“I better pick up Player Y before Ron from accounting does.”

Thus, I felt bad when my second thought after hearing the news of Salvador Perez‘s impending Tommy John surgery was: “Now I get to talk about Meibrys Viloria!”

Hailing from Colombia, (like fellow promising young catcher Jorge Alfaro) the Royals signed Viloria, then a shortstop, in 2013. He responded with a solid professional debut in 2014, slashing .278/.380/.417 in 46 games between the Burlington and DSL Royals, walking 24 times compared with just 28 strikeouts in 180 plate appearances. As to be expected with a player making such a drastic position change, Viloria struggled defensively in 2014. Though his strong shortstop arm allowed him to gun down 27% of would be base stealers, he also made his fair share of errors, a running trend through his minor league development.

2015 would not be the breakout campaign Viloria was hoping for, as his offensive game as a whole took a step back in a full season at Burlington, slashing .260/.335/.260. Yes, you read that correctly, a .260 slugging percentage. Viloria had no extra-base hits in 45 games and walked less than in 2014. The 13.4% strikeout rate was still very good, but a nearly 4% drop in walk rate wasn’t ideal. Viloria was just 18 years old.

Per an interview with Victor Flores of chukarsextra.com, a news outlet covering Royals minor league affiliate Idaho Falls, Meibrys worked in the offseason on his approach, being more aggressive at the plate and swinging at more pitches. This simple change in philosophy did wonders for him as his next season showed.

The Breakthrough

Starting the year at Idaho Falls, Viloria got to work immediately. He slashed a gargantuan .514/.558/.892 in the first month of the season, rapping 11 extra-base hits over 43 plate appearances after having none in the entire 2015 season. He proceeded to slash .349/.412/.550 for the remainder of the year, finishing with a .376/.436/.606 line to take home MVP honors for the Pioneer League. Let’s take a look at some interesting stats from that season:

.648 SLG vs. RHP, .460 SLG vs. LHP. While Viloria didn’t struggle against left-handed pitching by any means (He batted .320 against them, and his 14.5% walk rate was significantly better than his 5.6% rate against righties), it’s worth noting that he hit quite a bit worse against them as a whole. This is in line with his career rates both prior to and following this season. While he’s not so bad against lefties that it would necessitate a platoon, it’s worth keeping in mind.
14 errors. Yikes. The figure led Pioneer League catchers. Viloria also let up an unsightly eight passed balls. As expected, the glove is lagging behind the bat.

The Follow-up

Making the jump to Single-A, we saw some steps forward and backward for Viloria. While the walk rate stayed within a point of where it had been at Idaho Falls, Viloria’s contact rate dropped almost 6 full points. He slashed a respectable but underwhelming .259/.313/.394 at Lexington, with eight home runs in 398 plate appearances. On the positive end, the eight home runs represented his career high and gave a positive indication that Viloria was tapping into the raw power scouts had projected for him four years ago in Colombia.

Additionally, he took some steps forward defensively, drastically cutting down on his errors and killing an incredibly impressive 40% of stolen base attempts over his 99 games behind the dish. Passed balls were once again an issue though, tying with Red Sox prospect Roldani Baldwin for second in the circuit with 18 (Yankees prospect Donny Sands was the leader with 22.) Despite these struggles Viloria’s strong finish to the season (.312/.369/.468 for August and September) gave the Royals reason enough to promote the 20 year-old to High-A in 2018.

High-A brought only good things for Meibrys, as he made gains almost across the board. Some highlights though:

Walk rate jumped from 6.3% in 2017 to 9.8% in 2018, with contact rate holding steady.
Made just 5 errors in 88 games, down from 11 in 92 in 2017.
Halved his passed balls from 2017 in just 18 2/3 fewer innings behind the plate.

The Royals were clearly impressed with the progress he made in 2018, as they gave him the major league call in September. Though it’s a small sample size — just 10 games — we’re going to break each game down and look at how Viloria fared in his brief major league debut:

Sept. 2 vs BAL: 1-for-3, 2B, R, 2 RBI, BB

Viloria saw 15 pitches in his first MLB outing, swinging at just four of them, all fastballs. Those four swings resulted in a foul ball, two groundouts and a double off of Mike Wright Jr. that scored two baserunners. He let one called strike go past him all game and did a great job being selective with his pitches here in his first game. No swings and misses is the important stat to look at here.

Sept. 5 @ CLE: 0-for-3, 2 K

Viloria saw 12 pitches in this outing against Corey Kluber and the Indians and had a much rougher time than he did against David Hess and the Orioles. His first at-bat was a three-pitch strikeout, Kluber’s brutal slider finishing it off. His next at-bat was a three-pitch groundout, and his second strikeout came via a Cody Allen curveball after working the count to 2-2. A forgettable outing against tough competition. We saw six swings from Viloria in this one, making contact on just two of them. Kluber and Allen filled the strike zone against Viloria, with 10 of his 12 pitches seen going for strikes, but Viloria couldn’t respond.

Sept. 11 vs. CWS: 0-for-2, Sac Bunt

Viloria kicked off this outing by bunting to advance a pair of runners on a 1-1 count. Next up was a two-pitch flyout on a 1-0 count, crushing a Dylan Covey changeup. A groundout on a Nate Jones fastball wrapped this one up. Overall, Viloria saw just seven pitches in this one, making contact on three of the five strikes he saw, both other strikes being called strikes.

Sept. 15 vs. MIN: N/AS

Viloria did not get a plate appearance, only playing defensively.

Sept. 16 vs. MIN: 2-for-3, 2B, 2 R

Viloria started off this game by rapping a two-pitch single off Kyle Gibson, grounded out on a 3-1 count, then blooped a 1-1 double off Trevor Hildenberger to cap a two-hit performance. Ten pitches in this one resulted in four balls and six strikes, once again having no strikes come via swing and miss. His three swings all resulted in a ball in play.

Sept. 18 @ PIT: 0-for-4, 3 K

A pair of Jameson Taillon strikeouts started off this game, on 2-2 and 1-2 counts. Richard Rodriguez rung him up on four pitches next, and he finished off his night with a well-struck fly ball out in the 10th inning. Viloria swung at 11 of 20 offerings he got in this one and whiffed on seven. Picked up three strikes looking (including the putaway pitch in his second strikeout against Taillon) but managed at least a ball in every time up to the plate this time.

Sept. 22 @ DET: 0-for-3, K

Viloria managed to work Jordan Zimmermann up to a 2-2 count in a pair of at-bats, but the ends (grounded into a double play, strikeout looking) weren’t as satisfactory as the means. Flew out to right on the first pitch of his third at-bat to close a hitless night. He whiffed on just two of the 12 pitches he saw, putting bat to ball on three, four going for balls and watching three strikes go by.

Sept. 27 vs. CLE: 0-for-1, K

Viloria’s sole plate appearance in this contest was a five-pitch strikeout, swinging and missing on all three strikes of the at-bat.

Sept. 29 vs. CLE: 3-for-5, R, RBI, K

Viloria deposited a Kluber fastball into right field for a hit on his first pitch, following it up with a two-pitch single through the infield, once again on a Kluber fastball. He next lined out on a 2-1 Andrew Miller slider and singled off an Allen fastball on a 1-0 count his next time up. Finally, he worked Brad Hand to 3-2 before swinging over a fastball. Fifteen pitches for Viloria resulted in seven swings, just one of which was a whiff. Just two strikes looking for him in this outing.

Sept. 30 vs. CLE: 1-for-3, RBI, K

Viloria started off his final outing of the year by going down swinging on a 1-2 curveball from Carlos Carrasco, but he rapped a 2-0 single off Cookie his next time up, scoring Brian Goodwin. His final at-bat of the season was a weak groundout on a 3-2 pitch from Trevor Bauer. Viloria saw 13 pitches in this one, six going for balls. He swung at five pitches total, whiffing on two. Two strikes looking.

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The biggest takeaway from that info dump is that despite Viloria’s lack of experience, he already has impressive plate skills, particularly in regard to putting bat to ball: 38% of his plate appearances were five-plus pitches, though he wasn’t able to do a lot with these extended trips to the plate, going 0-10 with a walk and five strikeouts.

However, despite his propensity for working counts, Viloria was at his best in his cup of coffee when he was aggressive, just like in his dynamic 2016 season. In his eight plate appearances seeing two or fewer pitches, he was 5-for-8, picking up just two hits when an at-bat went beyond two pitches. Though it’s a very small sample size, the fact that it aligns with what we’ve seen historically from Viloria is encouraging.

When looking at a player who has as much work to do to become fantasy relevant as Viloria does, our own Nick Pollack preaches that you’ve got to look for the path to success. I think the path here is pretty simple: find the aggressiveness again. With the injury to Perez,the stars have aligned for Viloria to step up and show the Royals what he’s capable of. Perez is only under contract for two seasons after 2019 and has battled injuries of varying degrees for the past two seasons.

A major positive for his fantasy value is that Viloria already has the second-most MLB experience of any catcher in the Royals system, trailing just Cam Gallagher‘s 35 games at the MLB level. A .218/.274/.333 slash at the major league level for Gallagher though doesn’t exactly inspire confidence, and it’s no stretch to think Viloria could open 2019 as the Royals starting catcher with a strong spring.

While the Royals have been connected to free agent catcher Martin Maldonado and such a move would certainly make sense for Kansas City, General Manager Dayton Moore is reportedly content with Gallagher and Viloria as starters. Gallagher’s superior prowess defensively is concerning for Meibrys, as is his strength against lefties, indicating that the two could likely open the year in a platoon situation. Roster Resource currently has Viloria projected for just 140 plate appearances, but if he can once again retool his approach to be more aggressive as he’s shown the willingness and ability to do in the past, he could easily play his way into a far more prominent role.

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[ I think it's worth giving Villoria a look see this spring. ]

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Here are 7 early predictions for 2023 from mlb.com

I'll edit 6 of them:

Will the Mets live up to the hype (i.e. win it all)?
Prediction: No!

First off, any discussion of the Mets’ roster as I write this is complicated by the unresolved Carlos Correa saga. Without Correa, I’m not convinced the Mets are the best team in the National League East on paper (that would still be the Braves, for me), no matter how much money they’ve spent this winter. Making the investments in Justin Verlander, Edwin Díaz, Brandon Nimmo, Kodai Senga and others arguably only maintained the lofty level the Mets had reached in 2022, rather than improving upon it.

Correa would change that -- again, on paper. Even then, though, the Mets would run the risk of joining a long list of teams who won the winter but ran into unforeseen issues with injuries or performance letdown. Their cohesiveness -- and their unusually old rotation (the 2023 Mets will try to become just the sixth team in history and the first in 21 years to get at least 20 starts apiece from five starters aged 30 or older) -- will be put to the test by a league that will be gunning for them every night of the 162-game schedule.

Will Aaron Judge repeat as the MLB home run champ?
Prediction: No!

Will Shohei Ohtani be traded?
Prediction: No!

The other way to word this question is, “Will the Angels be contenders at the Trade Deadline?” My answer to that one -- surprising even myself -- is yes.

Will the Astros own the AL … again?!?
Prediction: No!

The Astros have reached six straight League Championship Series and won four of them. Even after losing Verlander, they will enter 2023 as the obvious favorites for the AL pennant, at a minimum. With the return of Michael Brantley and the addition of José Abreu, their lineup is as strong as ever. With Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier stepping into larger roles and Hunter Brown a breakout candidate, the starting staff could also be as strong as ever.

So the prevailing storyline in the AL is a bunch of teams trying to catch up to Houston. That’s the storyline within the division, where the aforementioned Angels will try to make the most of their final season of control of Ohtani, where the Rangers are spending gobs of money to rush their rebuild and where the Mariners are trying to build off their first October entry in a generation. And that’s the storyline elsewhere, especially with the Yankees and Blue Jays both fortifying their rotations in a bid to better their chances of advancement within October.

On paper, the Astros are still better than all of them. As a result, they are going to win the AL West. Again.

But you didn’t come here for bold predictions like, “The Astros are still good.” And this is another opportunity to take a contrarian stance. So here it is: After going a combined 18-5 in the ALDS the last six years, Houston will finally be humbled in a best-of-five. (I’ll let you know the winner in a minute.)

Have the Padres overtaken the Dodgers?
Prediction: Yes … sort of.
Now, with Xander Bogaerts serving as the latest big-ticket addition of a Friars team coming off that big win in a best-of-five, the Padres could be a popular pick to overtake the Dodgers in a best-of-162, even though they finished 22 games behind them in 2022.