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Re: Articles

Posted: Tue Dec 13, 2022 5:44 pm
by TFIR
Josh Bell hits ground running with Guardians; making sense of missing out on Sean Murphy

Image

Oct 19, 2022; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres designated hitter Josh Bell (24) hits an RBI-single in the fifth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies during game two of the NLCS for the 2022 MLB Playoffs at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
By Zack Meisel
Dec 13, 2022

51
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CLEVELAND — It happens every winter: A player joins a new team and delivers a string of clichés about how excited they are about their new home.

Josh Bell, however, has done his homework. No clichés, only specifics.

During his introductory news conference on Monday, Bell mentioned how he followed the Guardians’ playoff run, how he marveled at their scrappy style of offense, how they boasted the league’s lowest strikeout rate at the plate and how they racked up a bevy of comeback wins. He expressed his eagerness to bat behind a top-third of the order comprised of base-stealers and, as he noted, that’s before Major League Baseball installs larger bases and limits pickoff attempts.

Here’s more on what Bell had to offer, plus thoughts on the Guardians missing out on top catching trade target Sean Murphy.

Like many of his new teammates, Bell enjoyed his first taste of the postseason in October, an opportunity afforded to him when the Nationals dealt him to the Padres at the trade deadline.

“Every expectation I had was blown out of the water,” Bell said. “We all have that same taste in our mouth of what the postseason can bring and how close we were (to the World Series).”

Cleveland’s chances for a deep playoff run will increase if Bell supplies steady hits in the middle of manager Terry Francona’s lineup. So, how about a self-evaluation from the 30-year-old slugger?

“When I’m right, I hit for average and power,” he said. “When I’m wrong, I don’t hit for either.”

At least he’s honest. To his credit, even when he’s “wrong,” he does draw a ton of walks. His on-base percentage has a pretty high floor. He had a Jekyll-and-Hyde 2022 season, as he felt he “could do no wrong” with Washington, and then was “a step behind in some of the approaches and some of the attack plans” with San Diego.

The numbers confirm as much.

With the Nationals: .301/.384/.493 slash line
With the Padres: .192/.316/.271 slash line

He still produced enough overall to receive his first Silver Slugger Award as the most prolific designated hitter in the National League.

Bell isn’t the prototypical power hitter, the all-or-nothing threat fixated on launching the ball toward the outfield seats. He topped out at 37 homers in 2019, but he has a vastly different hitting profile than, say, the guy he’s replacing, Franmil Reyes. Bell reduced his strikeout rate to 15.8 percent last season. That’s a better rate, for instance, than Amed Rosario’s 16.6 percent.

“If I can leave the yard, then so be it,” Bell said. “But if we’re winning a ton of games and I’m leading the league in doubles, I think I’ll be just as happy.”

He’s also intrigued by what he might be able to achieve with the league imposing limits on defensive shifting. Bell said he expects to be rewarded more for making hard contact when he pulls the ball between first and second base while batting left-handed. He said he shied away from such an approach in the past because of how opposing teams aligned their infield against him.

“I feel like a lot of lefties have been waiting for this moment for a long time,” Bell said.

And that played a part in why his new contract — a two-year, $33 million deal — includes an opt-out after the 2023 season. If he excels, he can test free agency again and attempt to land a more lucrative salary than the $16.5 million the Guardians would pay him in 2024.

His agent, Scott Boras, compared the setup to the contract pitcher Carlos Rodón signed with the Giants last offseason. San Francisco handed the lefty a two-year deal (outbidding Cleveland in the process) worth $44 million that included an opt-out clause. Rodón opted out in November and now stands to earn a long-term pact worth nine figures.

“It’s an incentive where, if I can do what I think I can do,” Bell said, “regardless of numbers or anything like that, I’m going to have another crack at getting a raise next year.”

Pairing Bell with José Ramírez in the middle of the lineup could equip Francona with consecutive, patient switch-hitters who are averse to striking out and wield plenty of power.

“It’s tough to not get that itch … to play with José Ramírez,” Bell said. “Prodigious, best switch hitter in the league for a long time there. So, hopefully we can learn from each other, I can hit behind him, and what did he have, like, 120 RBIs last year?”

Again, the man did his homework. One-hundred twenty-six, to be precise.

“Hopefully he saved some for me,” Bell said. “But if we’re both over 100, I think we’ll be in a good place.”

Bell said his wife, a native of Poland, Ohio, outside of Youngstown, has been “grinning from ear to ear” since he signed with the Guardians.

How many times did you read over Oakland’s return for Murphy and assume you accidentally skipped over the name of a top 100 prospect or two? It’s OK. You’re not alone.

The return certainly seems light, like more of a bundle than a haul. The Athletic’s Keith Law declared the Brewers made out the best of the three teams involved in the trade, and suggested Oakland’s side seemed underwhelming.

So, how could the Guardians’ front office, anchored by team president Chris Antonetti and general manager Mike Chernoff, who have publicly voiced the team’s desire to land catching help to ease Bo Naylor’s transition to the majors, not top the offer made by the Braves (with an assist from the Brewers)?

Be careful comparing the return from Atlanta/Milwaukee with the reported return Oakland wanted from St. Louis and what that might have meant for a package from Cleveland. Teams value players — especially prospects — differently, so as you try to compare Lars Nootbaar to Steven Kwan or Esteury Ruiz to Will Brennan or George Valera or anyone else, just know one team might completely overvalue or undervalue a player, relative to how that player’s own team values him.

Cleveland once pursued Todd Frazier to play third base, but the Reds asked for Cody Allen or Danny Salazar. Cleveland refused, and the Reds ended up with (what appeared to be at the time, and what ultimately turned out to be) a far worse return in a three-way deal with the White Sox and Dodgers.
Sean Murphy is headed to Atlanta. What will the Guardians do to fill the void at catcher? (Darren Yamashita / USA Today)

Industry sources indicated the A’s have sought one of the Guardians’ top pitching prospects since the teams discussed a Murphy trade over the summer. Cleveland had no desire to move Daniel Espino or Gavin Williams, and even demonstrated reluctance to part with certain young position players.

Still, the Guardians boast one of the league’s deepest farm systems. They should have had the ammunition to top any offer for Murphy if they desperately wanted to pair him with Naylor. They preferred to deal from their wealth of middle-infield prospects, which has been the case for a year now as they continue to search for what they deem is the right deal. If they wait too long, the prospects who don’t fit onto their major-league roster might waste away in Triple-A purgatory. Nolan Jones went from being the organization’s top-ranked prospect on public lists to being traded for a low-level prospect in a matter of a couple of years.

As for their catching situation, they’ve backed themselves into a corner. Keep an eye on free agent Mike Zunino, who has recovered from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery. The Blue Jays could still move one of their three catchers. Austin Hedges is still out there somewhere, hairy chest and all. The Guardians were never going to hand Christian Vázquez a three-year deal, as the Twins did.

One other thing to ponder: Which team led the majors in offensive production from its catchers in 2022? The same team that just added Murphy. Braves catchers posted a 128 wRC+ and a .273/.335/.485 slash line last season. Guardians catchers posted a 55 wRC+ (29th in the league) and a .178/.265/.265 slash line.

Re: Articles

Posted: Tue Dec 13, 2022 6:25 pm
by seagull
Still, the Guardians boast one of the league’s deepest farm systems. They should have had the ammunition to top any offer for Murphy if they desperately wanted to pair him with Naylor. They preferred to deal from their wealth of middle-infield prospects, which has been the case for a year now as they continue to search for what they deem is the right deal. If they wait too long, the prospects who don’t fit onto their major-league roster might waste away in Triple-A purgatory. Nolan Jones went from being the organization’s top-ranked prospect on public lists to being traded for a low-level prospect in a matter of a couple of years.
Guardians continue to hit singles in the off season.

Still waiting for them to outbid another team for something they really want.

Re: Articles

Posted: Tue Dec 13, 2022 6:28 pm
by rusty2
Guardians Prospective
@CleGuardPro
·
21m
#Guardians had OF's Myles Straw, Will Brennan and INF Tyler Freeman in Cleveland this week for a couple of days participating in a hitting camp with staff.

Re: Articles

Posted: Tue Dec 13, 2022 8:49 pm
by rusty2
https://twitter.com/i/status/1602786548998721536

Josh Bell on joining the Guardians.

Re: Articles

Posted: Tue Dec 13, 2022 8:56 pm
by rusty2
Guardians place bet on catcher Mike Zunino: How much of an upgrade will he be?


By Zack Meisel
40m ago

CLEVELAND — The Guardians have upgraded from two black holes in their 2022 batting order, to varying degrees. Josh Bell should serve as a profound improvement over what the club received from the combination of Franmil Reyes and Owen Miller last season.

As for the other enhancement, Mike Zunino is Cleveland’s new catcher and perhaps the next mentor for prospect Bo Naylor. The question is, how much of an upgrade over Austin Hedges will Zunino prove to be behind the plate?

Zunino has a higher offensive ceiling than Hedges and carries a strong defensive reputation, but there’s a wide spectrum of possible outcomes for him in 2023. He has submitted seasons (2016, 2017, 2021) in which he’s been one of MLB’s most productive catchers. He has also endured seasons in which his mere presence in the batter’s box remedies a pitcher’s rising blood pressure.

No one better personifies the ol‘ boom-or-bust character. Zunino has had five seasons with 100 or more games, and he has hit 20 or more home runs in four of them. But he also swings-and-misses with enough frequency to supply a metropolitan area with sufficient wind energy. His career strikeout rate is 34.7 percent, which is a worse rate than any qualified hitter registered in 2022. He’s the antithesis of the prototypical, contact-infatuated 2022 Guardians hitter.


Mike Zunino hit a career-high 33 home runs in 2021. (David Butler II / USA Today)
Zunino was limited to 36 games last season because of thoracic outlet syndrome, a condition that can cause neck and shoulder pain, along with finger numbness. It more commonly plagues pitchers. Zunino’s nightmarish season, in which he posted a .499 OPS, ended in mid-June. (Hedges, meanwhile, recorded a .489 OPS in 105 games.)

Zunino crafted his magnum opus in 2021, when he slugged a career-high 33 home runs in only 375 plate appearances, logged a respectable walk rate of 9.1 percent, posted an .860 OPS, a 134 wRC+ and 4.5 fWAR, and made his first All-Star team. His advanced metrics shone, too. He consistently ranks at or near the top of the league leaderboard in maximum exit velocity and barrel rate, but in 2021, he excelled in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity. Defensively, he registered elite framing and pop time marks. (He’s about league average over his career in throwing out runners.)

If he can replicate that 2021 season, or anything remotely close to it, the one-year deal will be $6 million well spent for Paul Dolan and company. The first word of that sentence is doing a lot of heavy lifting, though.

Guardians catchers were, simply put, abysmal at the plate in 2022. They posted a .178/.265/.265 slash line. You know who posted a slightly better slugging percentage a year earlier? Jon Lester. Eric Lauer. Logan Webb. Those are all pitchers. Cleveland’s catchers ranked 29th in the league with a 55 wRC+, or 45 percent below league average.

Zunino might struggle in 2023. It’s happened before, and there’s injury risk with any 32-year-old catcher (he turns 32 in March), especially one coming off a significant ailment. FanGraphs’ Steamer projection system predicts he’ll log an 85 wRC+ — below league average, but leaps and bounds and more leaps and more bounds better than what the Guardians received at the position in 2022.

Catchers' 2023 forecast (via FanGraphs)
Mike Zunino
85
Austin Hedges
68
Sean Murphy
113
Christian Vazquez
95
Luke Maile
76
Bo Naylor
107
Zunino has had seasons with a wRC+ of 117, 126 and 134. (100 is league-average offensive production.) There’s also a 46, a 47 and last year’s injury-marred 43 on his ledger. For context, Hedges’ wRC+ the past four seasons: 49, 45, 40, 42. So, at his worst, Zunino could copy and paste what Hedges supplied the past couple of years with Cleveland. But there’s a lot of unpredictability here, too much to definitively declare whether Zunino is a slam dunk of an upgrade or more of a gentle finger roll at the rim.


How much of an upgrade will Zunino be over Austin Hedges? (Ken Blaze / USA Today)
Above all, Zunino isn’t Sean Murphy, whom Oakland dealt to Atlanta on Monday as part of a three-team trade. Murphy’s worst offensive season was 2021, when he logged a 100 wRC+ (and 3.3 fWAR). Zunino came at only a financial cost, whereas Murphy would have cost the organization considerable prospect capital. The Guardians do still have scores of prospects twiddling their thumbs, some bound for a second straight season at Triple A or a part-time big-league role that will prevent them from showcasing their full potential. They are positioned to package some young players in a trade, if they so choose. They could survey the starting pitching trade market or grovel at the feet of Pirates general manager Ben Cherington, who holds Bryan Reynolds’ fate in his hands.

At catcher, though, Zunino is the Guardians’ external acquisition. They can’t bank on him starting 150 games. Many teams have shifted to somewhat of a timeshare behind the plate. So although those in the organization have suggested in recent weeks they prefer to ease Naylor into major-league action and not overburden him with responsibility, he figures to factor into the equation in 2023. How much they lean on the rookie might depend on how often Zunino dents the metal bleachers at Progressive Field.

Re: Articles

Posted: Tue Dec 13, 2022 9:22 pm
by seagull
The Guardians do still have scores of prospects twiddling their thumbs, some bound for a second straight season at Triple A or a part-time big-league role that will prevent them from showcasing their full potential. They are positioned to package some young players in a trade, if they so choose. They could survey the starting pitching trade market or grovel at the feet of Pirates general manager Ben Cherington, who holds Bryan Reynolds’ fate in his hands.
Let's get Reynolds.

Don't take no for an answer.

And don't let some other team swoop in ....while they're sitting there doting on their prospects

Re: Articles

Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2022 10:02 am
by rusty2
How about some relief from the Browns? Let’s talk Josh Bell & the Guardians – Terry Pluto

Published: Dec. 14, 2022, 5:14 a.m.


By Terry Pluto, cleveland.com
CLEVELAND, Ohio – Talking to myself after listening to Josh Bell’s press conference officially announcing his signing of a two-year, $33 million contract with the Guardians. Bell an opt-out of his contract after the 2023 season:

QUESTION: Is this a big deal for the Guardians?

ANSWER: It’s bigger than most people think. Many fans and media members have been dwelling on the lousy hitting of Cleveland’s catchers last season. They batted .178 with an OPS of .529 – the lowest in MLB. They hit 10 HR. It was awful. They signed free agent catcher Mike Zunino, who is coming off shoulder surgery. His best season was 2021 with Tampa Bay when he hit 33 HR with 62 RBI, batting .216 (.860 OPS). He has hit at least 20 HR in four different season. He tends to hit for a low average with a lot of strikeouts and some power. He does a good job defensively.

Q: Tell us something we don’t know.

A: Cleveland’s designated hitters batted .219 with 9 HR, 38 RBI and a .596 OPS. The DHs’ homers, RBI and OPS were in the bottom two in all of MLB DHs. While the focus has been on the quest for a catcher who can hit, the addition of Josh Bell immediately improves the DH situation.


Q: Isn’t he going to play first?

A: That will be the plan, most of the time. That will allow Josh Naylor to spend a lot of time as the DH. He batted .256 (.771 OPS) with 20 HR and 79 RBI in 122 games.

Q: Didn’t Terry Francona say something about Naylor playing some of the time in the outfield?

A: That’s what the Cleveland manager said at the Winter Meetings. He also mentioned Naylor “is committed to trying to slim down just a little bit because he does have an issue with his leg.”

Q: What does Naylor weigh?


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A: He’s listed at 5-foot-11 and 250 pounds. Both numbers are probably optimistic. I doubt he’s as tall as 5-11 nor as light as 250. By talking about the outfield, Francona is encouraging Naylor to shed some weight. Naylor is coming off a career-threatening leg injury in 2021. He made a remarkable comeback last season. But the weight can be a problem for a guy who had several fractures due to a collision in the outfield about 18 months ago.

Q: Do they need Naylor in the outfield?

A: Assuming Steven Kwan and Oscar Gonzalez play as they did as rookies, the answer is no. Will Brennan also will play a big role. Like Myles Straw and Kwan, Brennan can play center field. But Naylor gives Francona another option. I also believe something else is at work here.

Q: I’ll bite ... what?

A: Remember what happened to Franmil Reyes. The Guardians had been trying to convince him to lose weight. He hit 37 HR in 2019 and 30 in 2020 (the last full 162-game seasons). But kept getting heavier. He batted .213 (.603 OPS) with 9 HR and 28 RBI in 70 games. The Guardians tried to trade him at midseason, but no takers. They put Reyes on waivers. He was claimed the Cubs. In Chicago, he hit .234 (.689 OPS) with 5 HR and 19 RBI. The Cubs let Reyes go. He is a free agent and could end up taking a minor league contract to go to spring training with a team. The Guardians don’t want that to happen to Naylor.


Q: Do you think it will?

A: I doubt it. Naylor is a harder worker, more driven to succeed. The great part of adding the switch-hitting Bell is his numbers are about the same vs. left-handed and right-handed pitching. The lefty-hitting Naylor was 19-for-110 (.173, .512 OPS) vs. lefties with one homer. He hit .288 (.854 OPS) vs. righties. So they can rest him vs. some lefties.

Q: What else about Bell?

A: He had this interesting comment about MLB outlawing defensive shifts next season: “Changes in the game are trying to promote teams like the Guardians. Teams that steal bases, that make contact.” Bell also believes that will help him.

Q: Because he pulls the ball a lot?

A: To an extent. He has a “high ground ball rate.” About 50% of the balls he hits are on the ground. They usually are hit hard, but right into those shifts with three defenders on the same side of the infield. Now, they can only have two defenders on the same side. It will create more holes for those ground balls.


Q: Wait a minute, isn’t this guy a home run hitter?

A: Not a classic home run hitter. In the last three 162-game seasons, his homer totals dropped from 37 to 27 to 17. He is more like Carlos Santana, a switch-hitter who was beloved by Francona and his teammates. He has power, but doesn’t dwell on hitting homers. He walks a lot. He doesn’t have huge strikeout numbers (about 100 times a year). He can be streaky, much like Santana. Overall, he’s a good player. Last season, he batted .266 (.784 OPS) with 17 HR and 71 RBI between Washington and San Diego. He struck out 102 times and walked 82.

Q: How does he fit with the Guardians?


A: I love this from Michael Baumann of Fangraphs: “Cleveland had the highest team contact rate and lowest strikeout rate in baseball. Jose Ramirez has been the Guardians’ franchise player for several years, and the 2022 team had basically been built in his image: short guys with high contact rates.”

Q: And ...

A: And Bell talked about how he is “itching to play with Jose.” He talked about hitting behind the top three in the Cleveland lineup: Steven Kwan, Amed Rosario and Ramirez. They all get on base. They all can run. Bell talked about being “protection for Jose” in the lineup.

Q: Big picture: What are the Guardians adding in Bell?

A: Here’s what Guardians President Chris Antonetti said: “He’s hit for prodigious power in the past. He doesn’t swing and miss a ton. But for all the things Josh does on the field and why we think he’s a good fit there, he’s also earned a reputation as a phenomenal teammate and someone who’s a unifying presence in the clubhouse.”


Q: Doesn’t it makes you wish spring training was starting tomorrow?

A: I’m with you on that, especially after dealing with the Browns and their problems all year.

Re: Articles

Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2022 10:21 am
by civ ollilavad
I join Terry and I happy with what the Gs have done early this winter, when they are usually standing by waiting for the leftovers in the market.
I don't see any significant needs for 2023 although any team can improve.

they need a Minor league free agent type as catcher no. 2, perhaps spending somewhat more for a Hedges or Perez as others have suggested.

4th and 5th starters were not very good last year; can we expect Civale or Plesac to improve? Civale was hurt a lot so maybe he'd be better throughout a fully healthy season but he had a terrible start when no injuries had been revealed. Plesac has no problems but himself.

Some very impressive replacements not too far away in the minors: Espino in the unlikely chance that he is healthy; Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee --- both finished last year in Akron. Cleveland has a long history of moving its best pitching prospects from AA to quick auditions in Columbus before arriving in Cleveland. I'd not be surprised if one or two of Williams and Bibee is pitching for the Guardians by the summer.

In the meantime I'd be happy to see Cody Morris getting a full shot to join the rotation. Xz Curry might be good enough for the 5th spot.

But a veteran-ish replacement for Civale or Plesac would not be a bad idea.

Team still has tons of tradeable assets and they're going to deal some of them sooner or later since it's tough to field a lineup with 8 shortstops.

Re: Articles

Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2022 1:06 pm
by seagull
I guess opt-out contracts are the latest rage.

So, should we root for Bell to have a good year so he can opt-out or just mediocre, so they don't have to hunt again for a 1B/DH next season?

Just kidding.

Re: Articles

Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2022 1:35 pm
by TFIR
But you have a point Seagull. Opt outs give all the leverage to the players.

So for me I root for Bell to have a really good season but like it here enough to want to stay.

Re: Articles

Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2022 2:47 pm
by rusty2
You never know he might want to stay.

Re: Articles

Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2022 3:11 pm
by seagull
Money talks and bullshit walks.

Re: Articles

Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2022 4:49 pm
by rusty2
And you complain................

too much !

Re: Articles

Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2022 5:06 pm
by seagull
A glass half empty is the same as a glass half full.

People look at the same thing in different ways.

Re: Articles

Posted: Wed Dec 14, 2022 6:52 pm
by rusty2
GuardsInsider
@GuardsInsider
·
30s
40-man move this evening

+Traded INF Owen Miller to the
@Brewers
for a player to be named or cash.

Roster is at 39 players