A roadmap to the Cleveland Guardians’ offseason

CLEVELAND, OH - OCTOBER 03: Cleveland Guardians catcher Bo Naylor (44) waits for a throw from the outfield during the sixth inning of the Major League Baseball game between the Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Guardians on October 3, 2022, at Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH. (Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire) (Icon Sportswire via AP Images)
By Zack Meisel
3h ago
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CLEVELAND — There’s a choose-your-own-adventure vibe to this Guardians offseason. Their most pressing need is fortifying the starting lineup. They could address the catching position or the first base/designated hitter spots. They also could upgrade the rotation.

They’re equipped with loads of trade capital and, as team president Chris Antonetti would lead you to believe, some financial flexibility. But how do they best deploy their resources to enhance the roster? That’s the basis of the dialogue taking place at 2401 Ontario St. A trade for a catcher and a free-agent signing of a right-handed bat? Vice versa? Is there a trade that would allow them to consolidate some of their upper-level prospect surplus? There’s a lot to sort out, and one move, in many cases, influences the next.

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Here’s a guide to the Guardians’ offseason.

The catching situation
Bo Naylor will factor into this equation, perhaps on Opening Day. The organization hopes he’s its next franchise catcher, a Sandy Alomar Jr.-esque staple behind the plate. But he’s 22, and there’s a steep learning curve for young catchers, who must learn to hit big-league pitching and partner with big-league pitchers. Naylor’s October experience, albeit brief, should help. So, too, should another spring training waddling like an eager duckling behind Alomar, Luke Carlin and whichever veteran catcher the front office lands to pair with him.

There are enough at-bats to go around for an established catcher to join Naylor in some sort of arrangement at catcher and at designated hitter or, depending on defensive versatility, first base. There’s no guarantee Naylor won’t need more time at Triple A at some juncture. The Guardians want insurance at the position. It’s why they pursued Oakland’s Sean Murphy at last season’s trade deadline. It’s why they’ll revisit Murphy, among others, this winter.


Alejandro Kirk slashed .285/.372/.415 with 14 homers and 19 doubles. (Joe Nicholson / USA Today)
The Blue Jays are dangling their three catchers. The Guardians coveted top prospect Gabriel Moreno when the two clubs discussed José Ramírez last spring, but Alejandro Kirk — an All-Star in 2022 — is probably their dream fit. Cleveland prioritizes defense and the handling of a pitching staff above all else when evaluating catchers, but the front office wants some offense from the position. Kirk walked more than he struck out and posted a 129 wRC+ (meaning he was 29 percent better than the league-average hitter, and 40 percent better than the league-average catcher). Danny Jansen might make sense, too.

Granted, those two potential trade partners, Oakland and Toronto, would be asking for quite different returns, since the former is mired in a rebuild and the latter is aiming for a title. The Guardians are far from the only team seeking catching help, which should be no surprise, given the average catcher logged a .226/.295/.367 slash line last season. But that looks like a Cooperstown-worthy slash line compared to Cleveland’s catchers, who registered a .178/.265/.265 line. (Side note: A recent straw poll of The Athletic’s MLB beat writers suggests the number of teams at least entertaining the idea of adding a catcher is in the double digits.)

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As for free agents, the Guardians weren’t crazy about Willson Contreras at the deadline, and they certainly won’t pay him the $84 million MLBTradeRumors projects he’ll earn over four years. Christian Vázquez, Mike Zunino and Omar Narváez are available. (Narváez, like Naylor, is a left-handed hitter, which might remove him from the conversation.) Gary Sanchez probably isn’t their cup of tea. A flock of former Cleveland catchers are also looking for work: Roberto Pérez, Kevin Plawecki and Sandy León.

And then, of course, there’s Austin Hedges, an unquestioned team leader who built a strong rapport with the club’s pitchers. But it’s impossible to ignore his .171/.231/.278 slash line of the last two years. The team has maintained contact with Hedges, but that seems like one of those “someone asks you to hang out this weekend and you have no plans, but you want to explore if there could be any better plans before you commit” situations.

Bottom line: The Guardians will be adding someone. They cut ties with Luke Maile last week, leaving Naylor and Bryan Lavastida as the only catchers on the 40-man roster.

The right-handed power bat
Cleveland ranked 29th in the majors in home runs, ahead of only Detroit. The five teams with the fewest home runs: Royals, A’s, Nationals, Guardians, Tigers. That is not the company you want to keep. And it’s why the Guardians want to add thump to manager Terry Francona’s lineup.

They’re also left-handed-heavy, and they struggled against southpaws last season (.646 OPS). Many of their on-the-cusp/not-quite-sure-where-they-fit young players are lefties, too (George Valera, Will Brennan, Richie Palacios, Will Benson). The solution: Acquire a right-handed hitter, one who can hang in the middle third of the order. And what do you know? The free-agent market has plenty, including José Abreu, J.D. Martinez, Trey Mancini, Josh Bell, Brandon Drury, Wil Myers, Luke Voit, Carlos Santana and Justin Turner.

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Now, several of those players are in the twilight of their careers. The team will need to carefully sidestep the land mines on the list, the guys whose production is about to plummet. The trade market could bear fruit, too, if the Diamondbacks were to make Christian Walker available, or if the Rockies dangle C.J. Cron, or if the Rays listen on Yandy Díaz. Josh Naylor scuffled against lefties last season, so a platoon partner (even if not a strict timeshare) could suffice. Evan Longoria, perhaps? Hey, Jordan Luplow is a free agent. What’s Ryan Raburn up to?

Although the Guardians could squeeze another outfielder into the mix, it doesn’t seem like that’s the priority. Steven Kwan has left field locked down. They believe Oscar Gonzalez deserves a starting spot. And Francona supplied Myles Straw with a vote of confidence in center. If any of those players falter, the club has major league-ready prospect depth (or close to it) in Brennan, Valera and others.

The starting pitching timeline
Here’s a rundown of starting pitchers who could be ticketed for Triple-A Columbus in April or May: Cody Morris, Xzavion Curry, Hunter Gaddis, Konnor Pilkington, Peyton Battenfield, Logan Allen, Joey Cantillo, Daniel Espino, Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, Tanner Burns.

I’m not sure an 11-man rotation benefits anyone. The Guardians have trade ammunition.

With Shane Bieber having only two years of control remaining, past extension talks plowing into a dead end and his vanishing velocity (despite ace-like numbers in 2022) complicating his long-term projections, questions will surely surface about his future and his availability. It doesn’t make sense to deal him this winter, not until that trio of top-100 prospects — Espino, Williams and Bibee — develops a bit more. The Guardians can’t lean on those three to guide the rotation in 2023. Even 2024 might be a stretch.

They need Bieber. They need Triston McKenzie. And, frankly, it wouldn’t hurt to have another starter of that ilk in the rotation, just in case Cal Quantrill, Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac don’t outperform their metrics. The Guardians made a multiyear offer to Carlos Rodón before the 2022 season, and he’s a free agent again, but he’s likely to get nine figures this time. Given the price of free-agent starters, a rotation upgrade would probably have to come via a trade, unless it were a one-year flier on someone such as Corey Kluber or Ross Stripling. (Hey, Mike Clevinger’s out there, too). The Guardians certainly have the internal depth to fill out the back of the rotation if they were to move Plesac or another starter.

The shortstop situation

Amed Rosario: Extend him, trade him or pay him in his final year of arbitration? (Brad Penner / USA Today)
Amed Rosario tends to spark a ton of debate. Everyone seemingly either treasures him and wants the club to sign him to a century-long extension or is unimpressed by him and wants the club to trade him to the first team that answers Antonetti’s call. It’s one end of the spectrum or the other, which is ironic considering every season, Rosario posts a solid, league-average, middle-of-the-spectrum stat line.

Rosario by year (excluding COVID season)
2019
.287/.323/.432
101
2.0
2021
.282/.321/.409
99
2.4
2022
.283/.312/.403
103
2.4
There are three choices: Extend him, trade him or pay him $8 million to $9 million in his final year of arbitration and go from there. Ramírez would choose door No. 1 for his close companion. Some front office number-crunchers would choose door No. 2. Members of the coaching staff, who appreciated his hustle and leadership in 2022, would choose door No. 1 or 3.

Gabriel Arias and Tyler Freeman reached the majors this year. Brayan Rocchio advanced to Triple A. Jose Tena and Angel Martinez are on the 40-man roster, as is newcomer Juan Brito. There’s no guarantee any of those candidates would provide more value than Rosario in 2023, but the team does need to capitalize on its depth at the position, whether that means trading from the surplus or finding more opportunities for the young players who are ready for the majors. The Guardians either need learn what Arias, Freeman and, eventually, Rocchio can do with 500 plate appearances, or they need to deal them before their trade value declines. Timing is everything with prospects, as the Guardians learned with Nolan Jones.

If they were to consider a Rosario trade — and they consider a trade of anyone other teams inquire about — could they get much in return? It’s a loaded free-agent shortstop class, with Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson all expected to command six-, seven- or eight-year deals for north of $150 million. If Cleveland hadn’t positioned itself as a contender, trading Rosario would be a no-brainer. But they can’t simply dismiss his speed and his ability to feast on lefties, especially if he wouldn’t fetch much in a trade.

The payroll
The organization has downplayed how the addition of David Blitzer’s minority ownership group will influence change on the payroll front. But Antonetti did say he expects the club’s payroll “to be appreciably higher” than last season’s figure of about $68.2 million. Here’s your annual Antonetti statement on the matter:

“Where, exactly, that settles, we’re just not quite sure. Some of that will be a function of not just our internal projections, but what opportunities are going to be available to us on the market, and we don’t only look at things in a one-year snapshot. We really think about team building on a multiyear horizon.”

The Cot’s Baseball Contracts estimation, when including projected salaries for the team’s seven arbitration-eligible players, is $68.7 million. I’m not sure $500,000 qualifies as “appreciably higher.”

So, expect long-term extension conversations in the spring. McKenzie, Kwan and Andrés Giménez seem like obvious targets. Expect the Guardians to scour the trade market and the list of second- and third-tier free agents to locate a useful hitter or two. With trades and free agency (to a degree) both at their disposal, countless scenarios are in play.

Maybe I'm overdoing my support for Cody Morris but he looked ready to be a back of the rotation starter with his work in September, way better than Curry and Gaddis and ahead by about a year of Williams and Bibee [who knows when Espino will be pitching and how many innings he can last?]

I think it's perfectly reasonable to think Cody Morris can enter the rotation.

His command and offspeed stuff are ahead of his age.

civ - as for Espino - remember how fragile Triston McKenzie was in the minors? Then he wasn't.

Let's hope that Espino can duplicate McKenzie's development! I'm afraid that Espino could be at risk from his extremely powerful delivery.

Ken Rosenthal

Why the Guardians traded Nolan Jones


MLB Pipeline ranked third baseman/outfielder Nolan Jones first among Cleveland’s prospects in 2020 and third in 2021, so how is it that the Guardians traded him last week for infielder Juan Brito, who has yet to play above Class A?

Part of it is that third baseman José Ramírez is entering the second year of a seven-year contract. Another part is that the Guardians are deep in left-handed hitters in the outfield and first base. They also are deep in young middle infielders, but are nonetheless intrigued by Brito’s athleticism and strike-zone management.

The Rockies liked Jones coming out of the 2016 draft, when he went to Cleveland in the second round, 55th overall. Jones, 24, can play on the corners and help balance the Rockies’ predominantly right-handed lineup. He also has a minor-league option remaining.

Presumably, the Rockies are looking for more proven left-handed hitters, as well. Nimmo, from the neighboring state of Wyoming, would be an obvious target. But the Rockies likely would be inclined to pursue more affordable options. Bellinger might be one.

Around the horn

Information from major-league sources:

• The Astros, after losing out on Rizzo, have continuing interest in José Abreu, who also is a “top priority” for the Padres, according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi.

Abreu, who turns 36 on Jan. 29, had career-lows with 15 homers and a .446 slugging percentage last season. But he remains an effective offensive player, as evidenced by his .378 on-base percentage, the second-highest of his career, and 133 OPS+, his best over a full season since 2017.

In addition to a first baseman, the Astros are looking for a left-handed hitting corner outfielder with Michael Brantley, a free agent, recovering from season-ending shoulder surgery and turning 36 in May.

2022 Draft Report Cards for every team from Baseball America
hardly any of our guys played at all so the ratings will be exactly what they were on draft day.



Best Pure Hitter: OF Chase DeLauter (1) has an exemplary track record of hitting throughout college. He hit over .400 for his career with James Madison (a .402/.520/.715 slash line) and also proved his hitting chops in the Cape Cod League in 2021, where he hit .298/.397/.589. He has a long track record of excellent contact and strong swing decisions, rarely expanding the strike zone. While DeLauter is the clear choice, OF Joe Lampe (3), 2B Nate Furman (4) and OF Guy Lipscomb (5) have all showcased solid contact skills and swing decisions.

Best Power Hitter: DeLauter’s (1) pure home run totals likely underestimate his actual power potential. Scouts viewed him as having 70-grade raw power in the future and his career ISO at James Madison was north of .300. His 15 career home runs have more to do with the fact that he only played in 66 games thanks to shortened seasons and injury. DeLauter homered nine times in 34 games with a wood bat in the Cape Cod League.

Fastest Runner: The Guardians drafted a number of plus runners at up-the-middle positions, including Lampe (3), Furman (4), Lipscomb (5) and SS Tyresse Turner (13). Lipscomb stole 42 bags in 48 tries (87.5%) during the 2022 season with Belmont and is a career 48-for-56 (85.7%) basestealer

Best Defensive Player: As mentioned above, Cleveland took a number of players who profile at premium up-the-middle positions, but the standout here might be Lampe (3), who has shown the athleticism and closing speed to be an impact defender in center field. Amateur scouts viewed him as a plus-plus runner and an above-average defender at the position.

Best Fastball: The Guardians drafted a number of refined, college strike throwers, which is to be expected of the organization, but RHP Javier Santos (7) has elite arm strength and has thrown a fastball that touched 98 mph in high school, with plus life to go with it. Another prep righthander, Jacob Zibin (10), touched 97 mph during the spring after turning just 17 in January and being one of the youngest players in the class. Day three picks RHP Magnus Ellerts (11) and Geo Rivera (19) both ran their fastballs into the mid and upper 90s in junior college.

Best Secondary Pitch: Both RHP Justin Campbell (1s) and LHP Parker Messick (2) showed plus changeups in college, while Zibin’s (10) best secondary pitch was also a changeup that he has shown impressive feel to land in the bottom of the zone. LHP Jackson Humphries (8) needs more consistency, but both of his breaking balls are high-spin offerings with swing-and-miss potential, while LHP Shawn Rapp (20) throws a high-efficiency, high-spin sweeping slider in the low 80s that was responsible for more than 80% of his strikeouts in 2022. There are a number of good options here.

Best Pro Debut: Cleveland only activated three players from the 2022 draft this year with the later date. Of that group, Lampe (3) continued to show improved impact ability with a 90.5 mph average exit velocity—in an admittedly small 11-game sample. LHP Adam Tulloch (15) and RHP Zach Jacobs (18) were the only other players who made their pro debuts in 2022. We’ll give the category to Lampe for his underlying hitting data, which is key for his overall profile.

Best Athlete: DeLauter is a unique athlete thanks to his combination of size (6-foot-4, 235 pounds), power (double-plus raw power) and speed (plus running ability). The fact that he played center field as capable as he did in 2022 speaks to that athleticism.

Most Intriguing Background: Zibin (10) was one of the youngest players in the 2022 draft class after reclassifying and moving from British Columbia to Florida in order to face better competition this spring. The move paid off for him to the tune of a $1.2 million bonus. Lipscomb (5) was an All-State high school football player in high school with Franklin (Tenn.) High and Rapp’s (20) brother, Brian, pitched three minor league seasons with the Twins and Blue Jays organizations.

Closest To The Majors: Cleveland’s top pitching selections, Campbell (1s) and Messick (2), could both move quickly. They each have strong track records against quality college competition, deep arsenals and above-average or plus control—and that combination of traits with Cleveland has been a successful one for many pitchers.

Best Late-Round Pick (Or NDFA): The Guardians are excited about the fastball characteristics that Ellerts (11) brings to the table, as well as RHP Jack Jasiak’s (12) excellent strikeout-to-walk ratio with South Florida and Turner’s (13) speed, contact ability and defensive versatility.

Anthony Castrovince trade speculation

6. Murphy gets new shin Guards

Guardians get: C Sean Murphy
A’s get: RHP Gavin Williams (Guardians’ No. 3 prospect), SS/2B Brayan Rocchio (No. 4)

These two clubs got deep into talks about Murphy last summer, with the Guards ultimately reluctant to part with any of their top pitching prospects in a swap for Murphy.

In some ways, that was understandable at the time. All that’s happened since is that Cleveland proved itself a bona fide contender but one still sorely in need of a power bat and some offense behind the plate.

Murphy, an Ohio native under contractual control through 2025, checks every box for a club that would be taking a big risk to hand off the starting catching duties to rookie Bo Naylor. Murphy would maintain the Guardians' emphasis on good defense and game-calling from the position while drastically increasing the offensive potential. Murphy slashed .250/.332/.426 last season. Given their competitive state and the presence of Shea Langeliers and several catching prospects close to the bigs, the A’s have no sense holding onto Murphy. But with the Cardinals among the clubs likely to be in on the bidding, the cost won’t be cheap.

This trade does require the Guardians to deal from their pitching and middle-infield depth, but such is the cost of doing business to turn a good Major League team into a potentially great one.

Jim Bowden

Cleveland Guardians
Needs: Catcher, power bat, develop young players and prospects


Free-agent targets: Willson Contreras, C; Christian Vázquez, C; Mike Zunino, C; Josh Bell, 1B/DH; Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF; José Abreu, 1B/DH; Joey Gallo, OF/DH; J.D. Martinez, DH; Mitch Haniger, OF; Wil Myers, 1B/OF; Trey Mancini, 1B/OF; Brandon Drury, INF/OF

Trade targets: Sean Murphy, C; Gabriel Moreno, C; Alejandro Kirk, C; Luis Campusano, C; Bryan Reynolds, OF; Anthony Santander, OF; Adolis García, OF; Daulton Varsho, OF; Randy Arozarena, OF

The Guardians had 17 rookies make their major-league debuts last season but still managed to reach the ALDS and come within one win of the ALCS. Their surprise season led to manager Terry Francona being named AL Manager of the Year and team president Chris Antonetti being named MLB executive of the year. So how do they build on 2022? They are working to upgrade at catcher by trying to trade for Sean Murphy of the A’s or Gabriel Moreno or Alejandro Kirk of the Blue Jays. They are also looking at free agent and trade options for a middle-of-the-order power bat. Beyond that, it’s all about developing their talented young players.

I often overvalue our prospects, so I would be reluctant to trade Williams and Rocchio for Murphy. Murphy's offense is huge improvement over our 2022 catchers and a fine defender. But will Naylor be that good in a couple years? I could offer our best minor league infielder but not a starter that promising. How about Rocchio and Plesac?

Or more like a Rocchio and a Bibee or Morris.

The A's are looking for that kind of guy - not someone who already has years on his clock.

I would not be surprised if the FO allows the market to thin out before they find their catcher. Let the Murphy market works itself out.

If the FO thinks that Naylor will be a future star then you do not need the #1 catcher available.

I would try not to trade a young starting pitcher candidate.

I would try not to trade a young starting pitcher candidate.

I assume Oakland doesn't want Plesac; me neither
I agree as for Williams, Bibee and Espino
We can deal Curry or Gaddis or Logan Allen or Tanner Burns

Astros Reportedly Finalizing Deal With Jose Abreu
By Darragh McDonald | November 28, 2022 at 12:55pm CDT

The Astros are closing in on a deal with free agent first baseman Jose Abreu, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. The terms of the deal are not yet publicly known.

White Sox To Sign Mike Clevinger
By Maury Ahram | November 28, 2022 at 11:40am CDT

November 28: Jim Bowden of The Athletic reports that the guarantee is $12MM.

Good luck to both parties. Mike is a very good pitcher when he is able to pitch.
I take this is a one-year contract, anything longer would be very foolish.
he made $5,750,000 for 2021 in which he pitched 0 innings
he made $5,750,000 for 2022 in which he pitched 114 innings
T

he right-hander finished the season with a 4.33 ERA and 91 strikeouts in 114.1 innings, tallying a 7-7 record for the San Diego Padres.
He allowed seven earned runs in two postseason starts, totaling just 2.2 innings.

but we won't mention that
I certainly see how he's now worth more than double the previous annual salary