http://nbadraft.net/2011-rookie-perform ... pectations
2011 Rookie Performance / Expectations
By Michael_Visenberg
Tue, 06/26/2012 - 8:19am
In our love for the NBA Draft, we often develop inflated expectations for draft picks. We hope to find franchise players in the top 5, all stars in the lottery, solid starters in the first round and occasional gems and role players in the second round. But are these expectations realistic? A draft study done by 82games.com helps to give us a more realistic perspective for draft positions.
http://82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm
Rating = points per game+rebounds per game+assists per game
Star: 20+ Rating
Solid Player: 15-19.9
Role Player: 10-14.9
Deep Bench: 5-9.9
Complete Bust: Below 5
DNP: Never Played in NBA
The list is not perfect in the way it breaks things down, at least in terms of "Stars" only having to have career averages in combined points per game/rebounds per game/assists per game over 20. You essentially only have to average 14 pts, 3 reb and 3 ast, which aren't generally considered star totals, but it gives a general barometer.
And keep in mind that these are career averages. You will find currently on basketball-references database that there are 231 players that qualify for All-Time ppg leaders that have averaged over 14 ppg. 45 are still playing in the league. 34 of these players were All-Stars at one time or another, with the others probably being considerations at least a few times.
The labeling and rating system isn't perfect, but it gives a broad way of viewing the output for each position. So, lets see how the rookies of 2011 stacked up to these expectations. Very few met them, as they are obviously developing and these "expectations" are career statistical averages. It still gives an interesting look into how they fared in general and how one can maybe expect them to perform.
I will list the Expected Averages and Ratings of the 82Games.com cumulative averages from the 1989-2008 Drafts (up until this study was done, obviously) and then list the 2011 rookie averages. It is way too early to know if they were good rating picks, though with some they seem to be well on their way. I am limiting the list to top 20 picks and players that averaged over 6 ppg, leaving out of course those who have yet to come to the NBA. Also going to include the 2009's draft's very own Ricky Rubio, who was a 2011 Rookie.
Statistics were taken from the 82games.com "NBA Draft Picks: Expected Performance" chart and from basketball-reference.com.
1. Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers
Expected Averages: 16.8 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 2.8 apg
Average Rating: 27.0 (ppg+rpg+apg)
Highest Rating (1989-2008 Draft): LeBron James (2003), 41.7
Lowest Expected Rating (1989-2008 Draft): Kwame Brown (2001), 13.3
Kyrie Irving's Rookie Averages: 18.5 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 5.4 apg
Kyrie Irving's Rookie Rating: 27.6
Rookie Breakdown:
Kyrie Irving
Kyrie Irving obviously is off to a fantastic start. Averaging over the expected rating in his rookie season, as a number 1 pick, is incredibly impressive. One would expect Kyrie to improve, particularly in assists as he gains more fire power around him. Still, he had an excellent rookie season and appears to have a bright future. If these are any indications of what Kyrie might average over his career (one would expect more), he looks like a very nice #1 choice for Cleveland.
Pick History:
The #1 pick, as expected, has the highest expected rating and one of the lesser margins for error. 13 out of the 20 players chosen first from 1989-2008 made at least one All-Star team, many of them making multiple appearances. Nonetheless, only three players in this draft period have won NBA championships as a first overall pick, Shaquille O'Neal and Tim Duncan and LeBron James.
Despite lottery conspiracy theories running rampant, only two players have won rings with the teams that originally took them first in the lottery era, San Antonio teammates David Robinson and Duncan. The first pick is definitely largely impactful, though not always a necessity for championship teams.
The perfect median for this pick seems to be 1991's Larry Johnson. LJ's Rating added up to 27.0 and he was a multiple All-Star, not to mention a dynamic player. If you get more than Grandmama, you should probably be quite happy with the selection. Expectations will always be enormous for the first player taken in any draft, just know that not every #1 pick is going to carry a franchise over the top.
2. Derrick Williams, Minnesota Timberwolves
Expected Averages: 12.9, 5.9, 2.8
Expected Rating: 21.6
Highest Rating (1989-2008): Kevin Durant (2007), 35.7
Lowest Rating (1989-2008): Danny Ferry (1989)/Darko Milicic (2003), 11.1
Derrick Williams' Averages: 8.8, 4.7, 0.6
Derrick Williams' Rating: 14.1
Rookie Breakdown:
Derrick Williams was in a position with sort of a log jam for Minnesota, with the issue never really addressed. If you go by the 82games.com scale, his rating this season would be considered as a "Role Player". Have to say that was an accurate description of his rookie season. One would of course expect improvement and more minutes as he progresses. He did not really blow people away with his rookie performance, but he definitely seems like he could live up to second pick expectations over time.
Pick History
The #2 pick has given us Bob Pettit, Jerry West, Rick Barry, Dave Bing, Earl Monroe, Bob McAdoo and Isiah Thomas. Gary Payton and Jason Kidd look sure to join these players in Springfield shortly. Kevin Durant of course crushed the expectations of a first pick and looks to be gunning for these players spots in the All-Time rankings eventually.
Unfortunately, this pick has also had quite a few misfires and flat out misses. Darko Milicic comes to mind as the most recent, Pistons fans might not want to look at who has the highest rating at the 3rd and 5th picks (not to mention Chris Bosh only slightly behind Chris Paul at 4th). As far as All-Stars are concerned, it drops to 7/20 (35%) being chosen to the game who were drafted in the second slot.
Expectations for the pick should still be high, just tends that the 2nd pick tends to be much less impactful than most 1st's. Amazing enough, 7/20 from 1989-2008 have won NBA championships, though not all played major roles during the ring run. If one were to think of a median for the expectations of this pick, think of Antonio McDyess or Mike Bibby who are right around the average expected rating.
Recent has not been exceedingly positive. The past three #2 picks averaged under 10 ppg in their first season, with Hasheem Thabeet posting a rating of 5.0, lower than Darko's through his first three seasons. This pick still gives teams a lot of optimism, especially with the incredible success of Kevin Durant. Just make sure to realize that he is more of the exception than the rule.
3. Enes Kanter, Utah Jazz
Expected Averages: 15.2, 5.1, 3.5
Expected Rating: 23.8
Highest Rating (1989-2008): Carmelo Anthony (2003), 34.1
Lowest Rating (1989-2008): Adam Morrison (2006), 11.0
Enes Kanter's Averages: 4.6, 4.2, 0.1
Enes Kanter's Rating: 8.9
Rookie Breakdown:
Another player with even more of a log jam at his position with a lack of minutes to go around. In the minutes Kanter did play, he seemed like a possible force as a rebounder. His offensive game needs time and he more than likely will have another year as an understudy before starting. Still, was around a 50% FG shooter and his best is in front of him. Definitely a solid first year of development, though.
Pick History:
The year before the lottery began, the Greatest Player of All-Time was chosen behind Hakeem Olajuwon and Sam Bowie in 1984. Michael Jordan is not the only great #3 pick; he is joined by Bob Cousy, Pete Maravich, Kevin McHale and Dominique Wilkins. Still, Michael is that player everyone hopes for at the 3rd spot. To say the likelihood of this happening is slim is a major understatement.
This pick still has seemed to have some pretty decent luck. 11 out of 20 players from 1989-2008 have made at least one All-Star team, with Sean Elliott, Chauncey Billups (2004 Finals MVP) and Pau Gasol all playing solid roles on title teams. This pick has had incredibly few bad misses, with Adam Morrison standing out as the one real glaring exception.
While the average expected rating for this pick is higher than the 2nd, it almost seems more like dumb luck rather than a sign of anything concrete. For teams with this pick, take pride in knowing the numbers tend to be on your side. As far as guards around that average mark, think Chauncey Billups and Jerry Stackhouse. For big guys, Al Horford and Christian Laettner average out right near the median. Again, all of these players were All-Star's and solid contributors, just not every third pick is going to be Carmelo, Pau, Penny Hardaway or Grant Hill.
4. Tristan Thompson, Cleveland Cavaliers
Expected Averages: 13.7, 5.5, 3.1
Expected Rating: 22.2
Highest Rating (1989-2008): Chris Paul (2005), 33.1
Lowest Rating (1989-2008): Antonio Daniels (1997), 12.8
Tristan Thompson's Averages: 8.2, 6.5, 0.5
Tristan Thompson's Rating: 15.2
Rookie Breakdown:
Many people loved Thompson's upside and energy his rookie season. The only 2011 Top 5 pick to be over a "Solid" rating besides teammate Irving, he showed upside as a rebounder and defender. Many still question as to where his ceiling may be, with some considering it a possible mistake to have drafted him ahead of Lithuanian Jonas Valanciunas. It is still safe to say that Thompson surpassed the first year expectations of most and will hopefully work his way to a possible double-double threat with extended minutes.
Pick History:
Not too many glamorous names at pick #4, besides of course Chris Paul. You can add Russell Westbrook to the list of great 4th picks as well, considering his role on a young Thunder Finals team, as well as Chris Bosh playing 3rd banana for the Heat. This pick also produced more All-Stars than the #2 pick from 1989-2008 with 9.
Still, expectations for this pick should be tempered. You have had some great scorers at this pick in Glen Rice, Jim Jackson, Jamal Mashburn, Stephon Marbury and Antawn Jamison, though none of these players averaged over 20 ppg for their career. In fact, Lou Hudson is the only player ever to average over 20 ppg during his career after falling to 4th.
This pick still packs a definite punch with Paul, Bosh, Westbrook and 2009 Rookie of the Year Tyreke Evans. The contributions of Rice, Rasheed Wallace and Lamar Odom to championship teams also are a highlight. If you are looking for what the #4 may look like as far as statistical rating, Dikembe Mutombo, Jim Jackson and Rasheed Wallace are all right around the pick average.