CLEVELAND, OH - AUGUST 21: Jose Ramirez #11 of the Cleveland Indians waves to the crowd prior to a game against the Los Angeles Angels at Progressive Field on August 21, 2021 in Cleveland, Ohio
By Zack Meisel 3h ago 25
CLEVELAND — Now that the Cleveland organization has revealed its new name and hushed any whispers about relocation with its blueprint to extend the ballpark lease, it’s time to revisit everyone’s favorite discussion topic: payroll.
Owner Paul Dolan told The Athletic last month that the club will increase its payroll this winter. Other team executives have expressed a similar sentiment.
A few factors are driving that objective.
One, there’s really nowhere to go but up. The club’s 2021 Opening Day payroll sat just below $50 million — only the Pirates started lower — and it shed more salary at the trade deadline. Only a small group of players is earning more than the league minimum this year.
Cleveland will be further removed from the pandemic-disturbed 2020 season, which it has cited as justification for the 2021 payroll, a figure that’s about even with the club’s budget from 2003. However, Cleveland’s payroll decreased in the two years before the pandemic, too.
A new minority investor could infuse extra cash into the operation. Dolan continues to hold conversations with potential candidates, but nothing is imminent on that front, sources said.
The new collective bargaining agreement could also play a role in payroll. The Athletic reported last week that, in advance of the expiration of the basic agreement on Dec. 1, Major League Baseball made its first proposal to the union on an economic plan, which included a $100 million team-salary minimum.
So there are plenty of factors to fuel a higher payroll, but given the team’s recent spending trajectory, skepticism may reign supreme in Cleveland, and understandably so. The point of emphasis here, though, is exploring what a higher payroll actually means. There’s a substantial difference between, say, a $65 million payroll and a $95 million payroll.
It’s not so much whether the payroll will increase. The question is: How would payroll increase?
First, remember, there’s no one on the books for 2022.
Two players have club options for next season. José Ramírez’s option is worth $12 million (it increased by $1 million based on his placement on MVP ballots in recent years). Roberto Pérez has a $7 million club option tied to a $450,000 buyout.
The Indians preserved the catcher pairing of Pérez and Austin Hedges for nearly $9 million this year. Would they keep the two for nearly $11 million next season?
Six players are eligible for arbitration: Hedges, Shane Bieber, Franmil Reyes, Amed Rosario, Nick Wittgren and Bradley Zimmer. If the team opts to keep all six, those players could earn (this is some back-of-the-napkin estimating) $20 million to $25 million. It’s possible Cal Quantrill (and, though a long shot, Harold Ramirez) qualifies for Super Two status and becomes arbitration-eligible as well. It’s also possible that one or two of those aforementioned players is non-tendered or traded.
The 2022 rotation seems all but set. Bieber, and maybe Quantrill, are arbitration-eligible, but Zach Plesac, Aaron Civale, Triston McKenzie and Eli Morgan are in line to make the league minimum (which, this year, was $570,500).
In the bullpen, only Wittgren would be slated to earn more than the minimum next season, unless the club re-signs Bryan Shaw or Blake Parker. It has been the standard operating procedure for Cleveland to extend spring training invitations to a couple of veteran relievers. Especially if James Karinchak can’t solve what’s ailing him, perhaps the team would explore a trade for an established reliever this winter.
Obviously, the lineup has holes in need of attention. We’ll get to those in a minute.
If the Indians stick with internal options for their batting order — let’s say they exercise Ramírez’s option and keep one of the two catchers — they’d be looking at a payroll slightly lower than the one they carried into the 2021 season. That would leave them with plenty of wiggle room to get creative, even if the payroll increase they have suggested is more of a bump than a boom. One would think that would grant them, at minimum, $20 million or so to play around with. So what could they do with it?
How about a Ramírez extension? He’s interested, but probably at a fairer price than his 2017 deal, which will likely wind up paying him $52 million over seven years, with half of that sum coming in the form of team options for 2022 and ’23. For a possible comparison, Jose Altuve landed a seven-year, $163.5 million extension from the Astros when he was a similar age.
The Indians might have some leverage since Ramírez has the two affordable options, which would prevent him from reaching free agency until he turns 31. They could scrap those options and spread out a higher salary across, say, five years, though such a deal would be unmapped territory for this franchise. Then again, they couldn’t have more payroll flexibility than they do now.
How about a Bieber extension? Discussions didn’t progress very far after his Cy Young Award campaign. Will the tenor of the talks change after an injury-marred season? The parties will surely sit down in the spring, but how much progress they make could depend on how motivated Bieber is to lock something in, and that’s difficult to forecast.
Regardless, there should be plenty of opportunities for trades or free-agent signings.
Middle infield and starting pitching are the strengths of this free-agent class, two areas where the Indians have assembled depth. They already have too many middle-infield candidates to cycle through, and pending free agents such as Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story and Javier Báez might command more money than Cleveland would prefer to dole out to any one player.
The outfield market, though, could be an area of concentration. It doesn’t have marquee names, but Michael Conforto is especially interesting. He’s the youngest and, perhaps, the most talented of the bunch. There’s also Mark Canha, Starling Marte, Chris Taylor, along with potentially AJ Pollock (player option) and Nick Castellanos (opt-out clause). All but Conforto and Castellanos are on the wrong side of 30, but a short-term deal for one of those guys who don’t sit atop teams’ wish lists (maybe Taylor or Canha) could make sense. (We’ll explore this in greater detail during the offseason.)
Cleveland will presumably spend a lot of time and energy this winter on the trade market. The front office would love to consolidate some of its younger talent in an effort to conquer the approaching 40-man roster crunch. A long-term outfield solution would be the primary target, though obtaining such a player is no simple task. Also, the club’s dream candidates would probably fall into the pre-arbitration or early-arbitration stage of their careers, so that might not have a sizable impact on the payroll.
Pirates outfielder Bryan Reynolds, for instance, will be eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter. (The Indians inquired about Reynolds and Cincinnati’s Jesse Winker earlier this summer.) Arizona’s Ketel Marte is under team control for $8.4 million, $8 million and $10 million the next three years.
There are, of course, other options of varying ages and prices who could be obtained, but Reynolds and Marte are examples of “aim high” trades the Indians could pursue before the late-November 40-man roster deadline.
If Cleveland is truly intent on supplementing the payroll this winter, there will be ample budget space to add an established player via trade and/or to spread some money around on a solid free agent or two.
(Photo of José Ramírez: Nick Cammett / Diamond Images via Getty Images)
