Indians’ trade deadline plans, Jake Bauers, the pitching pipeline and the 40-man roster crunch: Meisel’s Mailbag
By Zack Meisel 2h ago 9
BALTIMORE — He owns one of the league’s highest hard-hit rates and one of the best strikeout rates, and ranks near the top of the exit velocity leaderboard. His batted-ball metrics suggest that, in a perfect world, he would be boasting a batting average of .335 and a slugging percentage of .537. His last name is Ramirez and he hits in the middle of Terry Francona’s lineup.
Who would have guessed those facts tell the story of Harold Ramirez, not José Ramírez? There’s nothing wrong with José’s statistics or his underlying metrics. But Harold, who seemingly doesn’t have a bloop setting on his bat, has captured the club’s attention. The Indians claimed him off waivers from the Marlins in late February. Now, he bats cleanup.
Let’s get to your questions. (Note: Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and length.)
What are your thoughts on the Tribe trading Cesar Hernandez before the deadline? It feels like they could get an OK return from a true contender and free up a position for Owen Miller to get an extended audition. — Alex D.
There’s precedent, even in a season in which the Indians pseudo-contended: In 2011, they dealt Orlando Cabrera to the Giants so Jason Kipnis could play every day. At the time, the Indians were 53-51, 1 1/2 games behind the division leader. There are differences, of course. Cabrera had been abysmal at the plate and was in the twilight of his career. He netted the club Thomas Neal, an outfielder who totaled 41 big-league plate appearances.
If the Indians plummet in the standings over the next eight weeks, it would surely increase the chances they move Hernandez. They likely wouldn’t receive much in return, though if a team believes Hernandez’s offensive potential exceeds his output to this point, his $6 million club option for next season might pique its interest.
The caveat to all of this: Miller would have to show signs of life at the plate for this to even be a consideration. That hasn’t happened yet. In 43 trips to the batter’s box, Miller has four singles, a double, one walk and 20 strikeouts.
I’ve heard talk of the upcoming 40-man roster crunch at season’s end and how it might affect the Tribe’s approach to the trade deadline. Can you explain? — Kevin C.
Any player who originally signed before his 19th birthday is eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft after his fifth professional season. Any player who signed after his 19th birthday is eligible to be signed after his fourth season. Teams must protect eligible players by an annual deadline, which usually falls in late November, in advance of the Rule 5 draft.
Notable Cleveland prospects who will be eligible this year: Brayan Rocchio, Aaron Bracho, George Valera, Jose Tena, Bo Naylor, Richie Palacios, Tyler Freeman, Joey Cantillo, Robert Broom, Cody Morris, Adam Scott, Bryan Lavastida, Johnathan Rodriguez, Jhonkensy Noel and Yainer Diaz. Now, not all of those players will be protected. The Indians will evaluate these guys all summer, then determine which players other teams might pluck. (Via the Rule 5 draft, Ka’ai Tom and Luis Oviedo are members of the Pirates’ roster.)
The Indians will need to create space for at least a handful of these players. To do that, there will be some roster churn. It’s why they want(ed) answers on more established prospects such as Bradley Zimmer and Jake Bauers. Some of this will work itself out. Players will get traded or injured or won’t develop as anticipated. Veterans such as Hernandez, Eddie Rosario and René Rivera will depart.
The Indians might have to get creative, though. It might behoove them to package a few prospects in a trade. The tricky part about that is many of these prospects didn’t play last year, so teams don’t have as strong of a feel for their players’ development, let alone the development of other team’s prospects, and that might make the rival clubs a bit risk averse.
What are the chances a new city will be picking the new team name of the Indians? — Chris R.
Equal to the chances the Orioles have of scoring 18 runs in a game against Cleveland’s pitching staff.
Ope!
But really: What you laid out is not happening.
Do you think the Indians actually didn’t expect to compete this year (regardless of what’s been said publicly), so wins are just a bonus and they wouldn’t plan on trading prospects for a playoff push? — Chris W.
It’s a fair question because my sense is the Indians were hopeful some things would break their way, some young guys would blossom and they could hang around in the race. But their roster is so young and so many of these players lack track records that they really just didn’t have a good grasp on what was possible. Really, anyone who was certain about how this season would unfold was either lying or wrong, and that’s backed by this team sitting at 31-27 despite having so few players actually performing well.
Saying that, what the front office believed in March should have little bearing on how they act in July. This is supposed to be the recalibration year that sets them up for the next window, so if they could acquire a player with more than a year of team control and address a weakness — especially one that won’t be automatically fixed internally, cough, ahem, the outfield, cough — there’s no reason they can’t pursue a solution this summer. They’ve done this in the past with trades involving Ubaldo Jiménez and Andrew Miller. In this instance, they’d probably prefer someone a bit younger and perhaps with even more team control than the two and a half years those players carried.
In 2015, the Indians changed course and traded every veteran who occupied a locker in the clubhouse. That made the 2016 season the launching-off point. They embarked on that season without really knowing what they had until they rattled off 14 consecutive wins to enter July confident in their status as contenders. Then, they unloaded four prospects for Miller and nearly four more for Jonathan Lucroy. I don’t think they’ll act with that degree of urgency, because this team doesn’t seem as ready as that one, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see some tweaks or smaller upgrades, and if there’s an available, controllable hitter, they’ll at least be interested.
It’s safe to say the Diamondbacks, Rockies, Orioles and Rangers should be willing to sell off any spare parts, but we’ll need to see more movement in the standings before we can identify who else might join that side of the trade market. There might not be a better fit for Cleveland’s roster (and payroll) than Ketel Marte, but our Diamondbacks writer shot down that notion rather emphatically.
There are eight weeks until the trade deadline, though. The Indians first need some upgrades in performance from those already on the roster.
If Francona were on a deserted island and only had one phone call to an individual to rescue him, why would that person be Bryan Shaw and Bryan Shaw only? — Josh H.
Wouldn’t Shaw already be on the island with him? He already boasts the beard of Tom Hanks’ character from “Castaway.”
In your time covering the team, who is one player who comes to mind who didn’t work out, but you thought, if they were given more of an opportunity, could have succeeded? — Rob J.
I’ve been duped by just about any reliever who either threw hard or posted consistently strong minor-league numbers: Jon Edwards, Perci Garner, C.C. Lee, Scott Barnes, Preston Guilmet.
Cord Phelps always mashed minor-league pitching. I was surprised he never figured it out in Cleveland. He did hit a walk-off home run in one of the first games I ever covered.
Like seemingly every Clevelander, I thought Yandy Díaz would be the club’s long-term third baseman.
And I remain surprised that Matt LaPorta was playing in Mexico before his 30th birthday. That made me think of this comparison:
Matt LaPorta: 1,068 plate appearances, .238/.301/.393 slash line
Jake Bauers: 924 plate appearances, .211/.309/.365 slash line
Speaking of …
If Bauers becomes the next player who figures it out after leaving the organization, who would be to blame, and would anyone be on the hot seat? — Cody S.
It’s important to remember, like with many cases in sports, it’s rarely just one thing. When a player flounders in one place and flourishes elsewhere, multiple people might deserve criticism. It can be a failure in instruction and an organizational flaw.
Bauers is only 25, so it’s entirely possible he joins the Tigers, Mariners or Orioles and starts hitting the ball with authority. But he has also racked up nearly 1,000 plate appearances with little evidence that his results in Cleveland were on the verge of rebounding, and the Indians have other players to learn about. They couldn’t wait forever.
Every player presents a different case. Jesús Aguilar never received much of an opportunity in Cleveland, but he was blocked by Carlos Santana and Edwin Encarnacion. Gio Urshela flopped in Cleveland, then Toronto. The Yankees extended him a non-roster invite to spring training and he ultimately unlocked a hitting prowess the Indians never knew existed.
If players head elsewhere and thrive, it’s imperative that the original team examines why it didn’t work in its environment, so history doesn’t repeat itself. The Indians (and, presumably, all teams) study this sort of thing constantly. I dove into that in detail when examining the Indians’ struggles with hitting development.
With Tyler Freeman, Andres Giménez, Amed Rosario, Yu Chang, Miller and Gabriel Arias all able to play shortstop, whom do you see winning the position in the long run? Of the others, who stays and plays other positions? — Jason C.
Freeman is the best pure hitter of the bunch, and, ho-hum, he’s batting .351 with a tiny strikeout rate at Double-A Akron. So, he’ll wind up somewhere, in addition to the top of the lineup, but my hunch says second base. Giménez and Arias are probably the favorites to stick as the long-term shortstop. It’ll just depend on who proves they can produce at the plate. It’s easy to forget Giménez is 22 and this is his first taste of Triple A. He’s off to a solid start at Columbus (.279/.323/.393 slash line in 15 games). Arias is 21 and this is his first season above A-ball.
Clearly, there’s a surplus of candidates, which makes this difficult to handicap. Miller would really benefit from a surge in the batter’s box, since he has the first opportunity. The competition next spring should be fascinating. Ramírez’s future will factor into this equation, too. Most of these guys can play third base.
After having a run on starting pitching for the past decade, where are the next round of future starters coming from? We’ve heard about all the potential in Triple A, but is there enough quality or is it mostly quantity? — Nicholas M.
With the Indians, it’s dangerous to place a ceiling on any pitching prospect. Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac were never noteworthy prospects, and now they form the top of the rotation.
The lack of a minor-league season in 2020 — and the series of starting pitcher trades — threw everything into disarray and cast a cloud of mystery over some of these prospects. J.C. Mejía essentially leaped from A-ball to the majors. Sam Hentges’ last minor-league work came in Double A in 2019, and it was a struggle. He should probably be pitching in Columbus. Those guys, along with Eli Morgan and Scott Moss, don’t project as more than mid- to back-end rotation members, but, again, Cleveland’s recent history suggests it’s wise to abandon all preconceived notions.
The Indians are in a weird spot with their starting pitching. Bieber, Plesac and Cal Quantrill are all 26. Civale will turn 26 this week. Triston McKenzie is 23. So, they’re banking on this group to stick around for a while, and that timeline can work because their top pitching prospects — Daniel Espino, Tanner Burns, Joey Cantillo, The Other Logan Allen, Josh Wolf, Carlos Vargas and Ethan Hankins, though Hankins and Vargas recently underwent Tommy John surgery — are a few years away.
Who from this team will make the best Random Jersey Sighting 10 years from now? René Rivera? Someone else? — James G.
The third catcher is always a wise choice, yes. In a decade, will you recall that Ben Gamel made the 2021 Opening Day roster, or has everyone already deleted those 17 plate appearances from their memory?
Rank these from highest to lowest by the end of the regular season:
• José Ramírez Helmet Tracker
• Indians’ wins
• Bobby Bradley major-league at-bats
• Games with Bauers on the 26-man roster
• Twins’ losses
— Michael J.
This task became simpler once the club replaced Bauers with Bradley.
1. Bradley at-bats (I’ll guess 350 or so.)
2. José’s helmets (He’s on pace for 93.)
3. Indians’ wins (84 sounds about right.)
4. Twins’ losses (I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt and say 83, but, good grief, what a mess they’ve created.)
5. Bauers’ games (55)
(Photo of Harold Ramirez: Julio Cortez / Associated Pre
