Are the Royals for real? Can the Indians get on track? AL Central banter
By Zack Meisel and Alec Lewis May 3, 2021 13
Nearly a month ago, the Royals and Indians convened in chilly Cleveland for a couple of games. We didn’t know much about these teams then, it seems.
We had no idea Mike Matheny’s bunch would soon bloom into an American League titan (or something like that), though the returns of Jarrod Dyson, Wade Davis and Greg Holland should have signaled that was the case. Those guys know where the fairy dust is stored in Kauffman Stadium. We also had no idea that the team from Cleveland, the starting pitching capital of North America, would head into May at .500 with the rotation performing below expectations, Shane Bieber excluded. We all had an inkling he’d once again dazzle on the mound.
There is, however, still plenty we don’t know about these teams as they prepare to duel for four days in the backyard of icons such as Arthur Bryant, Jack Stack and some guy named Joe who makes a killer Z-Man sandwich. Perhaps our beat writers Alec Lewis (Royals) and Zack Meisel (Indians) can clear up some of the unknown before the teams attempt to answer our questions with their play on the field.
First, Alec: Are the Royals for real? If so, who do they/you consider their most legitimate competition in the AL Central? And, most importantly, are you taking good care of Carlos Santana?
Alec: Ah, are the Royals for real — the burning (ends)* question here in Kansas City.
*Horrific pun, but that’s on-brand over here.
This is a hard one to answer. Royals general manager Dayton Moore doesn’t jump the gun until the 40-game mark, so we probably shouldn’t either. But it takes a ridiculous amount of restraint, especially for a franchise that, in 2018 and 2019 combined, lost a cool 207 games.
The simple answer, at minimum, is that they’re vastly improved for obvious reasons. They added outfielder Andrew Benintendi, whose scorching performance of late feels like a preview of the forthcoming humidity. They solidified the outfield defense with center fielder Michael A. Taylor, who leads MLB in defensive runs saved (+7). They added an innings-eater in Mike Minor. And they’ve jumped out to a 16-10 start without arguably their most dynamic player, Adalberto Mondesi.
If Mondesi comes back and plays anywhere close to his level from the end of last season, the Royals will remain in the race. They learned this past weekend, though, the race will not be won simply with fairy dust, but rather by limiting the offense of the Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox. A larger sample is needed to know if that’s remotely possible, and, interestingly, the Royals’ run differential (-3) is worse than Cleveland’s (0). So there are reasons to doubt them.
One of those reasons is not Carlos Santana, however. I hate to do this, especially here, with all of the Cleveland corneas that are looking upon these words. But Santana has been the best player on the Royals’ roster through 26 games. He leads the team in WAR, per FanGraphs, at 1.0. He’s posted a .903 OPS. He’s barreling more balls (12.8 percent) than ever. And his clubhouse presence has been lauded almost laughably.
Again, I do not mean to upset so many so early in this conversation. But it’s true, so what am I supposed to do?
Hide your eyes, Cleveland fans. (Jamie Squire / Getty Images)
Zack: Santana will one day have a plaque in Heritage Park at Progressive Field. He’ll kiss the top of Terry Francona’s head and then deliver a short, but charming, Cleveland ____ (whatever they’ll be called at that point) Hall of Fame induction speech. (Hazards? I like Hazards. It won’t be Hazards. Anyway, that’s a separate discussion.)
All of Cleveland is happy for Santana and would have no issues with him thriving elsewhere. It’s just … well, the Indians’ first-base situation is an eyesore. No, it’s worse than that. It makes viewers want to gouge their eyes out. With a rusty spoon. OK, that’s a bit dark. Then again, have you seen these numbers? (You must be 18 or older to read the next line.)
Cleveland’s first basemen in 2021: .174/.237/.221 slash line, 28 wRC+ (100 is league average)
That batting average ranks 26th in the majors. The on-base percentage ranks 29th. The slugging percentage ranks 30th. That wRC+ is 13 percent worse than the second-worst team in the league at that position, the 8-21 Detroit Tigers.
So, juxtapose those stats with Santana’s numbers and you’ll understand why Cleveland fans might not be ready to gush over Santana’s sizzling start.
Alec: Hazards? I didn’t know I’d want to gouge my eyes out with a rusty spoon, but now here we are.
I’m a Spiders guy. Like, in nickname form. Who likes actual spiders? With what I’ve already said about Santana, this may turn off the entire readership to the idea. But they know in their heart of hearts what’s right.
Almost like they know that they wished you had raised the age limit on looking at those stat lines — Heavens to Betsy. I will say, though, at least the beauty of Bieber’s performances has offset what those first basemen performances have done to those eyes, right?
This gets to something else we should discuss, by the way. The Royals have been quietly doing a Cleveland impression on the pitching side of things. This hasn’t been a John Sherman production, but rather something that was fueled by the amateur scouting department before Sherman became the Royals’ chairman and CEO.
The Royals’ version of Cleveland’s 2016 MLB Draft is their 2018 MLB Draft. They selected right-hander Brady Singer, who nearly no-hit Cleveland last year, in that draft. A lefty prospect, Kris Bubic, who is now pitching out of the big-league bullpen, is from that draft. Monday night’s starter, Daniel Lynch, who may be the best prospect of them all, is from that draft. And there are more: Jackson Kowar, Austin Cox, Jonathan Bowlan, Jonathan Heasley and Zach Haake.
This raises a question, specifically with how Cleveland’s rotation has been of late: What’s your advice for handling this type of starting pitching?
Zack: Bieber was fortunate enough to burst onto the scene when his rotation mates were Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco and Mike Clevinger. That’s quite the group to learn from, and now that those four are gone, Bieber has seamlessly emerged as the staff’s leader, even though he’s only 25. Bieber, Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale, all 2016 draft picks, came through the system together, so it was easy for Plesac and Civale to watch Bieber bloom in 2019, when they debuted in the majors, and attempt to replicate his every move.
Cleveland’s starting pitching pipeline is the result of a years-long collaboration and process-reshaping between the scouting and development departments. It also requires an effective coaching/coordinator setup throughout the minor leagues, plus the proper coaches, front office liaisons and data analysts to help pitchers transition to the majors. As important as anything, though, is the pitchers’ own drive. They have to want to get better. They have to be willing to accept what a coach or coordinator is advising, and that coach or coordinator has to deliver the information in a way that is digestible for the pitcher.
The data suggests I should throw more change-ups? OK, but why does that data suggest that? What am I doing with my other pitches to spark that conclusion?
When a pitcher has a deeper understanding of why certain things work and why others don’t, he’s better off. That’s how you get Bieber creating an otherworldly curveball, then crafting an effective slider and cutter and change-up in a way that allows all of his pitches to play off one another.
It always helps when there are examples to point to, when a lower-level coach can tell a recent draftee that Bieber was pitching at that level only a few years ago. There’s no better motivational tool. It becomes sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy at that point. It’s not foolproof, though. The Indians are working to steer Triston McKenzie and Logan Allen toward the path to prosperity at the moment. Their rotation has actually been a liability two out of every five days this season, in part because Plesac, at 26, is the elder statesman of the bunch.
That helps to explain why this team is 13-13. Some in the rotation have performed great. Some have been atrocious. A few members of the lineup have produced a ton. Many others have floundered.
Alec: We shouldn’t spoil forthcoming stories in this space, but the most prescient line, relating to the Royals’ pitching prospects, was this one: “As important as anything, though, is the pitchers’ own drive. They have to want to get better.”
The Royals have created this pitching pipeline by identifying these types of players (and, really, people), which goes back to the scouting staff. Rarely do we discuss area scouts, but they’re so important in finding out who these guys are. In the case of Lynch, a longtime Royals area scout Jim Farr, who might know more people in the state of Virginia than the governor, established a relationship with the left-hander. It paid off years later because — and this isn’t a well-kept secret — players do in some ways have choices during the draft.
They can steer where they want to go with how much money they ask for. The Royals, an organization that prides itself on the staff and players at the ground level — hence their decision to pay minor leaguers and staff throughout the COVID-19 pandemic — have turned themselves into a sought-after destination.
Back to your point about the players wanting to get better: The Royals have not taken a cookie-cutter approach with these pitchers. They’ve allowed them to operate the way they feel best. Development staffers have provided insights and advice, but it’s up to the players to navigate the ship through, well, hazards, you could say.
It’s been interesting to see this evolution, to say the least. Now, to your point with McKenzie and Allen, it’s going to be interesting to see how these Royals pitchers progress at the big-league level. In the meantime, they’re going to need starter Brad Keller to pick things up. The Royals had expected him to be their horse this season, but he has an 8.06 ERA in 22 1/3 innings.
Zack: This usually doesn’t happen without some growing pains or bumps in the road. Bieber is the exception to the rule. It’ll be fascinating to watch how quickly it all comes together for the Royals’ staff, especially if they hang around in the division race all summer. The Indians, likewise, are still feeling out exactly who and what they are, how much patience they should exhibit with certain guys, and how soon they should call upon reinforcements from the minors.
There are clearly four teams in the AL Central who figure to pester each other for the next five months. The Twins just took two of three from the Royals after dropping two of three in Cleveland. The Indians and White Sox have already squared off eight times and played to a 4-4 draw. The Royals have surprised many with their winning ways. The Twins surprised many with their 7-15 start. And the Tigers have played the role of everyone’s punching bag.
From a surface-level view, the White Sox and Twins still seem like the two most formidable contenders of the group, but all four of these teams have flaws, and I’m not sure there’s as much separating them as I thought a month ago.
Alec: That’s exactly why Royals fans are so stoked. Well, that, and the fact they haven’t seen this many wins this early since 2003. It would be hazardous to tell you how old I was then, so we’ll save it.
This should be an interesting series, another slate of games that will shed more light on the state of these two small-market clubs. In the meantime, sit back. Relax. And watch Carlos Santana rake.
