Cleveland Sports Forum

McKenzie is not having a great spring but his two strong characteristics put him on the top of MLB's "Cy Young dark horse "list

1. Talent
2. Cleveland produces Cy winners

Triston McKenzie -- RHP, Indians
Key number: 33.1 strikeout rate in 2020

McKenzie wasted absolutely no time flashing his big league potential, racking up 10 strikeouts over six innings in his Aug. 22 MLB debut. The key here will be whether the 23-year-old right-hander can stay healthy -- and if Cleveland will give him enough work. Prior to his Major League debut, McKenzie hadn't started a game since 2018 due to back and forearm injuries. He logged just 33 1/3 innings in 2020 and made his final three appearances out of the bullpen, including one postseason outing. The Indians will undoubtedly monitor his workload carefully in '21, but the possibilities of what he could do with a full season are certainly intriguing.

After all, McKenzie posted a strikeout rate of 33.1% last season. Here's the full list of pitchers to strike out at least 33% of batters while making at least five starts in their first MLB season (not all rookie-eligible players, just players in their first year in the Majors): McKenzie (2020), Stephen Strasburg (2010), Kerry Wood (1998) and Henry Porter (1884). That's it. As for last year, the only qualified starters with a higher strikeout rate were Shane Bieber (41.1), Jacob deGrom (38.8), Trevor Bauer (36.0), Dinelson Lamet (34.8), Lucas Giolito (33.7) and Aaron Nola (33.2). Bieber and Bauer won the Cy Young Award in their respective leagues, while the other four each received a share of Cy Young votes. McKenzie obviously has the potential -- and what better organization to help him reach it than a Cleveland club that has produced two of the last four AL Cy Young Award winners (Bieber and Corey Kluber).

and for similar reasons Plesac is among the 10 names also

Zach Plesac -- RHP, Indians
Key number: .069 opponent batting average on slider in 2020

The fact that two of the picks in the AL came from the Indians shouldn’t be overlooked. This is the team that had a Cy Young winner in Bieber in 2020, not long removed from Corey Kluber’s two awards in ‘14 and ‘17, and is set up for prime pitching for years to come. And that’s with Kluber long gone at this point, and Mike Clevinger no longer there either. Plesac’s slider made the prospect of a full season from him very hard to pass up. The only pitcher with a pitch that had a lower opponent average in 2020 was Devin Williams -- with the changeup, his Airbender, that led him all the way to NL Rookie of the Year (min 50 plate appearances).

Plesac’s expected ERA of 5.52 in 2019 indicated that he may have outperformed what should’ve happened, when he had a 3.81 ERA in 115 ⅔ innings, but 2020 told a better story for his quality of contact and results. He had a 2.28 ERA and 3.43 expected ERA, and though there’s still a difference there, at least the contact wasn’t telling us he should’ve been significantly worse in ‘20. He also had a huge increase in strikeout rate, from 18.5% to 27.7%, and it truly feels like the sky’s the limit with this Indians pitching staff...yet again.

The 10 Cleveland Indians rookies most likely to make an impact in 2021 By Zack Meisel Mar 23, 2021 25
Last season, seven rookies appeared in a game for Cleveland. This year, with a younger, more fluid, less proven roster, that number should increase.

Let’s assess the 10 (OK, more like 11) rookies who could contribute the most this season.

While Gabriel Arias and Tyler Freeman have impressed this spring, their only paths to significant, major-league playing time would require a barrage of injuries or trades of infielders, given the presence of Andrés Giménez, César Hernández, José Ramírez, Amed Rosario and Yu Chang as well as rookies Owen Miller, Nolan Jones and Ernie Clement. Arias and Freeman could top this list a year from now.

10 (tie). Eli Morgan, SP
The club’s top six starting pitchers are Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac, Aaron Civale … and then, in some order, Triston McKenzie, Cal Quantrill and Logan Allen. Those six will get plenty of work, even if the last three shuffle in and out of the rotation.

Beyond that, Adam Plutko could make a spot start when needed. And then, well, it’s up to the rookies. Morgan and Scott Moss are next in line. Morgan pitched only one inning this spring — three up, three down, with two strikeouts. (Clearly, he’s ready. Call him up.)

In all seriousness, Morgan will turn 25 in mid-May and the club added him to the 40-man roster over the winter. He has made only one start at Triple A, but the change-up specialist has pitched well throughout his minor-league career, with sterling marks in the walk, strikeout and home run departments, even though he doesn’t throw particularly hard. There’s a decent chance he debuts in 2021.

10 (tie). Kyle Nelson, RP
Nelson’s slider has always been his top pitch, but his velocity has increased during spring training which, as manager Terry Francona noted, “gives you more separation and it gives you more margin for error.” It has helped convince the coaching staff that Nelson doesn’t necessarily need to be pigeonholed into a lefty matchup role, which is more difficult to deploy with the three-batter-minimum rule. Nelson made one appearance with Cleveland last season. He’ll surely top that number in 2021.

9. Owen Miller, IF
Francona has raved about Miller’s hitting acumen, and for good reason: He has collected 11 hits in 31 at-bats this spring (.355 average). That shouldn’t come as a surprise, given his .307/.367/.441 slash line in two minor-league seasons.

“This kid’s going to be some kind of hitter,” Francona said. “He already is a good hitter.”

The question is, where will Miller eventually play? He has experience at second, short and third. Cleveland’s coaches have insisted they don’t want to turn him into a utility infielder who sees the field only a couple of times each week. They fawn over his bat skills too much to limit his chances to actually step into the batter’s box.

The 24-year-old could certainly debut this season if the Indians need another infielder at some point, though Rosario and Chang are standing in his way at the moment. Either way, it seems as though Miller should receive consideration for the second-base job in 2022.

“He looks to me like he can hit good pitching,” Francona said. “That’s a pretty big compliment, especially for a young kid. He uses the whole field. He has a knack for being able to bring his hands in and keep the ball fair down the left-field line. He’s just a really good hitter.”

8. Sam Hentges, SP
Some fans might still be learning how to pronounce his last name — it’s HENTCH-is — but the imposing lefty has been one of the highlights of spring camp. He’s tall, throws hard, and those who faced him over and over again at the alternate site last summer or early in spring training have had opportunities to tap into the more unbecoming realms of their vocabulary.

Hentges will be a starter in the minors, but he could develop into an intriguing summer option for the bullpen.

7. Nick Sandlin, RP
Sandlin won’t break camp with the big-league club, but the Indians kept him in camp to claim an available inning here and there.

“He’s on the cusp,” Francona said. “He’s going to help us.”

The sidearmer studied the work of fellow arm-slot technicians Joe Smith and Steve Cishek as he adopted the new delivery during his junior year of high school. Sandlin was fast-tracked after the Indians drafted him in the second round in 2018, as he jumped from rookie ball to A ball to High A to Double A. He reached Triple A in 2019, but injuries derailed his season. Francona referred to his stuff as “electric” and “nasty” and said Sandlin’s pitches, especially from his arm slot, are effective enough to allow him to overwhelm lefties and righties. Sandlin could be the first reliever summoned from Triple A this season.

6. Trevor Stephan, RP
From talking to his agent, and after the Yankees left him unprotected, Stephan knew he had a chance to be selected but told himself it’s “just a crapshoot.” He was working out with some friends during the Rule 5 Draft in early December when the Indians snagged him. He called it “a dream” because he’d have an immediate opportunity to showcase his ability and make a major-league roster, rather than continue the steady climb through the minors.

The Indians stuck him in the bullpen, and he said he prefers that role. The 25-year-old pitched out of the rotation in the Yankees’ system. He reached Double A in 2019. Stephan throws a mid-90s fastball, a slider and a splitter and said he occasionally mixes in a curveball to make hitters think about a fourth pitch. He’ll likely pitch in middle relief to begin the season.

5. Nolan Jones, 3B/OF
Widely considered the organization’s top prospect, Jones’ future is slightly murky because his position is occupied by a perennial MVP candidate. At Triple A, he’ll play some third and some corner outfield. And if there’s an injury or someone struggles, he’ll be an option to make his big-league debut. It’s just … there’s some clutter to sort through first. There are questions about whether he’ll figure out left-handed pitching and precisely how much power he can wield (and, obviously, his ultimate defensive assignment). But he can draw a bunch of walks and hit right-handed pitching, and he could do those things in Cleveland as soon as this summer.

4. Daniel Johnson, OF
The Indians informed Johnson on Friday that he would begin the season at Triple A, and he never really stood a chance at cracking the Opening Day roster once the club shifted Josh Naylor to right field. With Jordan Luplow returning from injury, the only spot available to Johnson was as a fifth or sixth outfielder, and that seems like a waste for a 25-year-old who, if he’s on the roster, should be playing, at minimum, against righties.

One solution would have been to throw Johnson into the mix in center field, but that never materialized. Johnson will play all three outfield spots at Triple A and it wouldn’t be surprising if he wound up as the team’s primary center fielder. He can hit for some power and possesses elite arm strength, a couple of traits that should earn him an extended look this year — though, that was the case last year, too, and he totaled only 13 plate appearances.

3. Bobby Bradley, 1B
There might not be a player Francona has received more inquiries about since camp began than Bradley. The slimmer slugger has hit everything in sight this spring during his bid to claim the first-base job. He and Jake Bauers have engaged in a first-base duel for the past month, and if Bauers weren’t out of options, Bradley would be the clear victor in the competition.

Bradley’s offensive profile is no secret: a lot of home runs and a lot of strikeouts. But after reshaping his body during a rigorous offseason, Bradley is confident that he’s positioned to do more damage at the plate and be more nimble at first base. Bradley appeared in 15 games for the Indians in 2019, and he should exceed that total this season.

Related: Inside Bobby Bradley’s offseason transformation

2. Emmanuel Clase, RP
Francona said James Karinchak, Nick Wittgren and Clase will initially be the three-headed monster at the back end of the bullpen. One of them will claim ninth-inning duty. Clase wants that role, though he might have to earn more trust first.

“He’s got special stuff,” pitching coach Carl Willis said.

Clase has impressed Cleveland’s evaluators this spring, and he still has his rookie status intact, even though he logged 23 innings with Texas in 2019. His bread and butter is a 100 mph cutter that doesn’t miss as many bats as you’d think, but also is really difficult for hitters to square up.

“He’s been outstanding,” Francona said. “We’ve seen the velocity and the movement. He’s throwing his breaking ball for strikes. He’s been terrific.”

Related: Is Clase ready to be Cleveland’s closer?

1. Triston McKenzie, SP
In his penultimate start of the spring, McKenzie surrendered six runs on six hits and four walks. He did log 4 2/3 innings, his high mark for the spring.

“I wasn’t necessarily happy with how I got there,” McKenzie said. “I felt like I could’ve done a lot better moving into that fifth inning, but I was happy that I was able to push past and get into five.”

Regardless of his role on Opening Day, McKenzie will factor into the rotation throughout the season. However, the club will be cautious with him. He’s not going to rack up 180 innings after he totaled 33 1/3 the past two years.

Though he’s had a shaky spring, McKenzie — widely considered a top-100 prospect — flashed his potential last summer, when he posted a 3.24 ERA in eight appearances, his first big-league cameo.

“I definitely feel like I’m a lot more comfortable than I was last year,” McKenzie said.



Zack Meisel is a writer for The Athletic covering the Cleveland Indians. Zack earned first place in both sports coverage and feature writing from the Society of Professional Journalists in 2019. He has been on the Tribe beat since 2011 and is the author of four books, including "Cleveland Rocked," the tale of the 1995 Indians. Follow Zack on Twitter @ZackMeisel.

I think Shaw's got a job

Francona was raving about Bryan Shaw’s performance in Monday’s 6-3 loss to the Brewers before first pitch on Tuesday. The Tribe brought back the familiar face on a Minor League deal at the beginning of camp, and Shaw and many on the club joked when he first arrived that he’s notorious for having bad performances during Spring Training. But so far this year, he’s made quite the case to earn a spot in the bullpen.

Following what Francona deemed Shaw’s best outing of the spring on Monday, the right-hander came back on Tuesday and fanned three batters in one frame.

“He said coming in that he felt as good as he’s felt in a while,” Francona said. “And you know, sometimes I think guys are maybe trying to talk themselves into that they feel good, but I think we all kind of felt when he walked out that he meant what he said, and he has certainly backed it up. The ball is coming out of his hand really good, but he’s got a little different arsenal than he did before. It’s interesting.”

Clase’s velo catching attention

The Indians knew that Emmanuel Clase was going to be a hard-throwing arm to add to the backend of their bullpen last year, but when he tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs before the season got underway, they had to wait another year until they could add him into the mix. Although he’s not seeing the results that he may prefer to see on the field so far, owning a 5.14 ERA in seven games after giving up a solo homer in the ninth on Tuesday, the velocity of his cutter is starting to hit (and eclipse) 100 mph more frequently.

“If it’s possible, he might be throwing too many strikes,” Francona said. “Because he’s around the plate so much, guys are actually getting decent swings at times. If that’s the worst problem we have, we’re in really good shape.”

Jake Bauers on, Bobby Bradley off: Evaluating a slew of Cleveland Indians roster decisions


By Zack Meisel 1m ago
Cleveland’s Opening Day roster is coming into focus. The club’s decision-makers met with a collection of players on Friday morning to deliver long-awaited news.

On the roster: Jake Bauers, Oliver Pérez, Ben Gamel, Yu Chang
Off the roster: Bobby Bradley, Bradley Zimmer, Harold Ramirez, Kyle Nelson, Anthony Gose, Blake Parker

Let’s examine.

Bauers/Minor-League Options Monster def. Bradley in handicap match
I ran out of fingers and toes counting how many times I had written that Bauers’ lack of options would likely tip the scales in his favor. Bradley had the better spring, but Terry Francona and Chris Antonetti have stressed that 30-some plate appearances in Arizona wouldn’t be the only criteria they monitor. If Bauers doesn’t perform, they’ll sever ties with him and move on to Bradley.

“The biggest thing is if Jake doesn’t make the club,” Francona said, “it’s irreversible.”

The question everyone will ask if Bauers struggles from the get-go: How long of a leash will he be granted?

Bradley has received a groundswell of fan support this spring, and given his power potential, he might be the more intriguing prospect. Bauers, on the other hand, has seemingly become Public Enemy No. 1 in Cleveland. The projection systems don’t play favorites. They forecast both as below-average hitters.

ZiPS

Bradley: .223/.290/.441 slash line, 85 wRC+ (100 is league average)
Bauers: .227/.315/.391 slash line, 85 wRC+

Steamer

Bradley: .222/.295/.450 slash line, 89 wRC+
Bauers: .233/.332/.411 slash line, 95 wRC+

It would be an upset if either guy proves to be the long-term solution at first base. (I wouldn’t be shocked if Nolan Jones worked his way into the conversation at some point.) Because of that, I was surprised at the start of camp when they opted to shift Josh Naylor to right field, rather than keep him at his natural position of first base and let Daniel Johnson and others battle for right field. When they made that decision, it telegraphed their plans; they wanted an answer on whether Bauers, once a top-50 prospect, could hit in the majors. Their only evidence, from 2019, doesn’t support that cause, but Bauers was only 23 at the time.

All of that said, this decision still sends a lousy message after Bradley put in the work to transform his body, did everything in his power this spring to seize the spot, and yet couldn’t conquer Bauers because of some transactional logistics.

“He did his share,” Francona said. … “This isn’t the last we’ve seen of Bobby.”

Related: Inside Bobby Bradley’s offseason transformation

They also have themselves to blame for much of this mess. They could have gained a better sense of the potential of Bauers, Johnson, Zimmer, Oscar Mercado and others last year. Instead, Delino DeShields Jr., Domingo Santana and Mike Freeman claimed plenty of playing time.

Whereas Bradley’s strong spring didn’t pay him immediate dividends, Chang’s Cactus League performance earned him a roster spot.

“He looked like one of our better hitters this spring,” Francona said.

Francona isn’t sure how often he’ll be able to squeeze Chang’s name into the lineup. José Ramírez and César Hernández rarely require days off, and Andrés Giménez could play on a daily basis at shortstop. Chang has seen some time at first base this spring, though, so he could potentially play there against some left-handed pitchers.

Center field: Gamel? Rosario? Luplow? Oh my…
The club will proceed with a mix of two or three guys in center, and none of them has extensive experience at the position. Zimmer’s demotion to Triple-A was a bit surprising, since he falls into that category of “we’ve probably seen all there is to see, but we should make sure, once and for all, that he’s not the long-term answer.” Then again, Zimmer is 28, and if he can’t capture a roster spot with this lackluster competition, that might say all there is to say.

The guy to watch is Amed Rosario, who continues to work with assistant coach Kyle Hudson on his transition to center.

“It was kind of working from ground zero,” Hudson said.

How well Rosario adapts to his new position could determine quite a bit. He has the best bat of the bunch, but he has played center field for only two and a half weeks, so even though he’s uber-athletic, this is a work in progress. And that makes it even more shocking that Zimmer, a gifted defender, didn’t land a spot. Gamel, with 29 career starts in center, now has seniority at the position.

The team took a liking this spring to Gamel, who said Friday morning that when he learned he had made the roster, he took “the first breath I’ve taken in about a month.” Luplow has played center a couple times this week, just so they have that option in their back pocket if necessary.

Really, the team landing on this group speaks to where they stand at the moment on Zimmer and Mercado, and how Johnson deserved a chance to convince them he can handle that position.

This is a spot on the diamond that could cycle through starters all season, unless Rosario makes rapid defensive progress. And that could happen — he and Hudson work together every day when everyone else is finished with their daily regimen.

“He’s doing almost twice as much as every other guy out there right now,” Hudson said.

(Side note: Rosario owns a career .812 OPS against lefties, and the Tigers are expected to start southpaw Matthew Boyd on Opening Day. Will the Indians dispatch Rosario to the cavernous outfield at Comerica Park in Game 1?)

Familiar faces in the bullpen
The bullpen is shaping up to look like this: James Karinchak, Emmanuel Clase, Nick Wittgren, Trevor Stephan, Bryan Shaw, Oliver Pérez, Phil Maton and Adam Plutko. They’ll likely stick one of Triston McKenzie, Cal Quantrill or Logan Allen in the bullpen for the first few weeks as well, until the schedule dictates they need a fifth starter. They have yet to finalize their decision on which of those three pitchers will earn a rotation spot and which might wind up at the alternate site in April.

The club chose Pérez over Kyle Nelson and Anthony Gose in a battle between three left-handed relievers. Gose was nearly perfect this spring, aside from one significant implosion in which he surrendered six runs and struggled to command his pitches. He has the best pure stuff of the three, but he’s out of minor-league options and he’s still relatively new at this whole pitching thing, so they felt the best plan for him was to get him some consistent reps in the minors and then be a relief option this summer.

“We think his future is very bright,” Francona said.

ESPN rates Cleveland 18th best team in baseball and a winning record. And loves Shane Bieber

18. Cleveland Indians
Projected record: 83-79 (29.6% playoff odds)

Best case: Even without Francisco Lindor, Cleveland once again churns out a top-10 rotation backed by a solid bullpen. Jose Ramirez puts up an MVP-level campaign, another hitter -- perhaps Franmil Reyes -- emerges to fill the offensive void opened up by the Lindor trade, and it all adds up to enough to hang tough in a three-team AL Central race with the Twins and White Sox. -- Doolittle

Worst case: Ramirez is more good than great. Shane Bieber turns out to be the only standout in the rotation, as a leaky defensive outfield undermines the overall work of the pitching staff. Cleveland sinks to fourth in the AL Central, and the fan base is thoroughly discouraged in the aftermath of the departure of the face of the franchise. -- Doolittle

Most exciting player: Francisco Lindor received more national attention while they were teammates, but it was Jose Ramirez who finished third, third and second in the MVP voting over the past four seasons. He may lack Lindor's flash in the field, but Ramirez hits home runs, steals bases and does it all from a physique that makes him one of the most unique, wonderful players in the majors. -- Schoenfield

Schoenfield's bold prediction: Shane Bieber wins his second straight Cy Young Award, winning 19 games with a 2.35 ERA and striking out 273 batters.

That's pretty freaking dead on in my book. Great stuff, thanks civ.

Tito has never had a losing record with the Tribe. Don't forget him as a factor as well.

Tito will be challenged to keep up the winning record streak; I'll go with 81-80 and one game postponed and not rescheduled. But honesty I think reaching 500 is going to be tough for this bunch unless Naylor and A. Rosario hit and Miller converts to 1st base and joins the team by June.
And the starting pitching is much more in doubt than recent years. I'll be very surprised if more than one of the starters not known as Shane Bieber has a strong season.

NEW YORK -- The Mets and Francisco Lindor remain tens of millions of dollars apart in negotiations on a contract extension with less than 72 hours until the deadline, a source said Monday night.

The Mets have made Lindor an offer of 10 years and $325 million, which would more than double the largest previous commitment in franchise history. Lindor's camp is seeking a 12-year deal worth $385 million, which would be the largest contract extension in Major League history, topping the 12-year, $365 million deal that Mookie Betts signed with the Dodgers last year.

A source said the Mets' offer is their best and final attempt to sign Lindor, who has made it clear that he won't negotiate past Opening Day. The source said the Mets have put their own Opening Day deadline on their offer and stepped away from the negotiating table.

In other words, Lindor can take it or leave it.

If Lindor does not sign, he can become a free agent next winter, joining a class that includes star shortstops Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Trevor Story and Javier Báez.

The current largest contract in Mets history is $138 million, given to David Wright in 2012.

I thought he'd want half a billion for 15 years. He's looking cheap.

"One great unknown for each time entering 2021"

INDIANS: Can the outfield be better than it was in 2020? [or should the question CAN IT BE WORSE?]

The Indians have struggled to receive offensive production from their outfielders over the last few years, but 2020 was the most challenging season for the outfield crew. They had the second-worst wRC+ (54), batting average (.194), on-base percentage (.238) and fWAR (-0.9), while recording the fewest RBIs (62) and homers (11) and lowest slugging percentage (.300) in the Majors. While Eddie Rosario will be the everyday guy in left field, it’s nearly impossible to project what will happen in center. With Oscar Mercado and Bradley Zimmer starting the year in the Minors, Ben Gamel and Jordan Luplow will probably get the majority of the playing time in center. Will they -- and a full season of Josh Naylor in right field -- be able to help bring a boost to the outfield production? The Indians certainly hope so. -- Mandy Bell

I think the great unknown for the Indians this year is how the starting pitching will hold up over 162 games with a dramatically thinner collection available. Someone will get hurt, even if only for awhile; and it's hard to imagine anyone other than Bieber working 200 innings for the first time in his career. They'll need most likely more than the 6 starters currently on the roster, several of whom did not quite excel in the spring.

In AAA the only close to ready guy is Scott Moss, unless Sam Hentges picks up where he left off in Arizona. Or if one of the kids [Mejia, Vargas, Hankins, Espino] really rockets up the system; although Eli Morgan could be a possibility as a 5th starter.

civ ollilavad wrote:I thought he'd want half a billion for 15 years. He's looking cheap.

They can absolutely have him for that price.

And if he doesn't sign...the Mets have to sweat it out all year. I like our side of that deal BY FAR

civ ollilavad wrote:I think the great unknown for the Indians this year is how the starting pitching will hold up over 162 games with a dramatically thinner collection available. Someone will get hurt, even if only for awhile; and it's hard to imagine anyone other than Bieber working 200 innings for the first time in his career. They'll need most likely more than the 6 starters currently on the roster, several of whom did not quite excel in the spring.

In AAA the only close to ready guy is Scott Moss, unless Sam Hentges picks up where he left off in Arizona. Or if one of the kids [Mejia, Vargas, Hankins, Espino] really rockets up the system; although Eli Morgan could be a possibility as a 5th starter.

No one thought Civale or Plesac was much. So I certainly won't rule out someone down on the farm stepping up.

Terry Pluto agrees with me

CLEVELAND, Ohio – Well, we know the pitching will hold up. At least, that’s what most experts are saying about the Tribe.

But do we know that, at least early in the 2021 season?

I like the bullpen. Emmanuel Clase was throwing 100 mph in spring training. James Karinchak is not ready to close, but he can be dominating.
Manager Terry Francona hasn’t designated a closer, but it could be Nick Wittgren, at least some of the time. Phil Maton and Trevor Stephan have terrific young arms. I saw Stephan twice in Goodyear. He was a starter in the Yankee farm system, and perhaps could eventually do that if needed.

Cal Quantrill had a 2.25 ERA in relief last season, 32 innings between the Tribe and San Diego. He’s now in the bullpen after a rocky spring as a starter.

Oliver Perez looks like he will pitch forever.
The bullpen...good news.

The lineup...lots of reasons to worry. But that’s not new news.

THE OLD SPRING SONG

Let’s start with the old, “I know it’s spring training, so don’t be fooled...” I’ll add another verse: “I know it’s spring training in Arizona, where the dry air flattens out breaking balls and the whipping wind can make life miserable.” There’s a third verse about Arizona often is heaven for hitters. That’s why I’m concerned about Jake Bauers (.200) and to a lesser extent, Josh Naylor (.195).

I don’t know what to say about Austin Hedges (2-for-35 with 20 strikeouts) besides...YIKES!

Veteran hitters and pitchers are exempt from any spring performance discussion.

A LITTLE BASEBALL LOVE

That said, I have fallen into baseball love with Owen Miller, much like I did Yandy Diaz the first time I saw him in spring training with the Tribe. Acquired in the Mike Clevinger deal, Miller has hammered the ball all spring. He’s hitting .400 (16-for-40, .955 OPS) with a homer and two doubles. He has one walk in 40 at-bats. But only eight strikeouts. He’s headed to the minors, but the infielder won’t be there long.
Miller is not a desert mirage. He batted .290 (.785 OPS) in Class AA in 2019. He was 22 years old, and that was his first full pro season after being a third-round pick by San Diego in the 2018 draft.

After the Tribe made the Clevinger deal with the Padres last season, an executive raved to me about Miller. He thought it was a superb move by the Tribe because the guy “can flat-out hit.”

SO WHAT’S THE PROBLEM?

I’m not going to dwell on this, because I could be wrong.

But the starting pitching is so young in terms of MLB experience.
After Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber (and he’s only 25), no member of the Tribe’s projected rotation has more than 29 big league starts.

I mentioned my concern about the youth of the rotation to Francona in a Zoom call Monday. “That’s real,” said the manager. “There’s no reason to not talk about it. If we don’t anticipate there will be a hiccup on the way, we’re probably not being realistic.” Francona then mentioned what he told the pitchers in a recent meeting:

“We said ‘We know we’re young. But when (Zach) Plesac takes the mound, when (Aaron) Civale takes the mound...and Logan Allen, we feel like we’ve got a chance to win.’ And that’s how we feel. Yeah, we are kind of young. But I don’t think that means we back off of competing.”

It is spring training...

“You’d like to see better results (from some starters),” admitted Tribe president Chris Antonetti. “But in spring training, it can be tough to assess results.”

Antonetti talked about pitchers working on a certain pitch or pitch sequences, or how to command the strike zone in different situations. There are a lot of variables.

THINKING ABOUT THE STARTERS

Here’s a breakdown:

I love watching him pitch...Mr. Cy Young Shane Bieber is the next Corey Kluber.

I’m not too worried about...Zach Plesac, even though he had been shelled for 9 home runs in 23 1/3 innings. I saw his one good spring game. When it counts, Plesac is 12-8 with a 3.32 ERA. Opposing batters have hit only .223 off him in 29 MLB starts.

I wonder a bit about...Aaron Civale. Like every Tribe starter except Logan Allen and Bieber, Civale had a lousy spring with a 6.14 ERA and four homers in 14 2/3 innings. He had a 2.34 ERA in 10 starts as a rookie in 2019. In 2020, that ERA soared to 4.74, allowing 11 homers in 74 innings. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff. He has 22 MLB starts.

I have doubts about...Triston McKenzie. Not long term, if he can stay healthy. But for right now. A control pitcher with a mid-90s fastball last season, McKenzie walked 12 in 19 1/3 spring inning. He was crushed for 7 HR. He gave up 6 HR in 33 1/3 innings last season. He’s only 23 and has dealt with injuries in the recent past. Patience probably is required. He has six MLB starts.

I had high hopes for...Cal Quantrill. But he had a miserable spring with a 8.78 ERA and nine walks and 19 hits in 13 1/3 innings. He’s 26 with 21 big league starts. He has had some success in the bullpen, where he will open for the Tribe. That could be his best role. He has 21 MLB starts.

I’m excited about...Logan Allen. Antonetti said the lefty “has been one of the high points of camp for all of us.” I saw him throw four sharp innings, giving up his only run of the spring. In 2018, he was 14-6 with a 2.54 ERA between Class AA and AAA at the age of 21. He has four MLB starts.

Allen developed some mechanical problems with his motion. The Tribe’s pitching group simplified his delivery. He throws from the stretch, much like the motion that turned around Carlos Carrasco’s career. He’s only 23 and could be something special.

The Tribe does have depth in the minors.

Scott Moss had a neck problem and pitched little this spring. The 26-year-old lefty has a career 41-17 record with a 3.28 ERA in the minors. Along with Allen, he came to the Tribe in the Trevor Bauer deal.

The Tribe believes Eli Morgan and Sam Hentges can develop into MLB starters.

“If we have a problem that we need to fix, we’ll do our best to fix it,” said Francona. “But I think our pitching guys have really done a good job and I think that will continue.”