Re: Articles
Posted: Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:45 pm
This is a fantasy baseball article.
Which Former Met will be the Tribe Starting SS?
Of the two shortstops that the Indians acquired from the Mets in exchange for Francisco Lindor this winter, Amed Rosario would seem to be the favorite to open the season as the starter considering his experience advantage over Andres Gimenez. Rosario had a breakout 2019 in which he hit .287 with 15 HR's and 19 SB's, but took a big step back in 2020, slashing .252/.272/.371 with just 4 HR's and not a single SB in 46 games. Nearly all of his metrics declined - His K% rose 4%, his HardHit% dropped by 6%, his EV fell by 3 MPH, and his Launch Angle plummeted from 8.8 to 4.2 degrees. With an ADP of 330, fantasy owners apparently either believe his 2019 was an aberration, or that he won't end up being an everyday starter. Both of things are possible, but an argument can also be made that his 157-game sample in 2019 should outweigh the 46-game sample from 2020. If he does play every day, double-digit HR's and SB's and a decent BA are reasonable expectations, which makes Rosario a solid option if you still need to fill a MI slot in the final rounds of the draft.
Andres Gimenez has gotten off to good start this spring, going 4-7 with a HR and a 3B in the early going. While he only has 49 big-league games under his belt, a strong spring could allow Gimenez to challenge Rosario for the Indians' SS job. Gimenez has never shown much power, but he makes decent contact (21.2% K% last season) and more importantly for fantasy owners, he steals a lot bases. Gimenez combined for 66 SB's in the minors from 2018-19 before swiping 8 bags with the Mets in the abridged 2020 season. If he indeed plays regularly, he's worth a look based on his steals alone, but at this point, that's still a big if.
Who Will Round-Out the Indians' Rotation?
Even after trading four frontline pitchers over the past two years (Bauer, Kluber, Clevinger, and Carrasco), the Indians still look primed to have a strong rotation in 2020. The team seems to have a knack at developing starting pitchers, with their current top-4 starters (Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, Zack Plesac, and Triston McKenzie) all having emerged over the past 3 seasons. The #5 starter has not yet been determined, but considering the recent track record, every Tribe SP needs to be looked at closely.
Cal Quantrill came over from the Padres in the middle of last season, and pitched well in 2020 (both with SD and CLE) recording a 2.25 ERA with a 31:8 K:BB across 32 IP. Most of that work came in relief, although he did make 3 starts in which his ERA was a shiny 1.69. The Indians are considering him for the 5th spot in their rotation, but he didn't go more than 4 IP in any of his starts last year. He did make 18 starts for the Padres in 2019, recording a 5.69 ERA, 4.59 xFIP, and 1.35 WHIP as a starter. While his ERA dropped significantly last season, his xFIP only fell slightly to 4.27. In short, Quantrill has yet to prove that he can be an above average big-league starter, although this year may be his chance to do just that.
Logan Allen, another former Padre, appears to be Quantrill's main competition for the rotation spot. Allen struck out 2 in 2 scoreless IP in his Spring debut, but has struggled mightily in two MLB seasons, with a career 5.40 ERA, 5.35 xFIP, and an ugly 24:20 K:BB across 38.1 IP. If you're looking for a bright spot, he does have a 48.85 GB%, but other than that, he's statistically been pretty bad. That said, Allen has been considered a pretty good prospect and the Indians have done a good job at getting their young pitchers to succeed, so don't give up all hope yet. Right now though, he's still probably behind Quantrill for a spot in the rotation.
Adam Plutko could also be a rotation option for the Tribe, having made 36 starts for the Indians over the past 3 seasons. Plutko has a longer track than either Quantrill or Allen, but that could actually work against him as he a long track record of mediocrity. He has a career 5.05 ERA (5.58 xFIP) and 6.46 K/9, and the latter number was even worse in 2020 (4.88 K/9). To make matters worse, Plutko has a career 49.8% FB% and 21.6 LA which have led to a disastrous 2.03 HR/9. Unless there's an injury, the Indians are more likely to leave Plutko in the bullpen, and give the starting job to pitcher with a bit more upside.
Which Former Met will be the Tribe Starting SS?
Of the two shortstops that the Indians acquired from the Mets in exchange for Francisco Lindor this winter, Amed Rosario would seem to be the favorite to open the season as the starter considering his experience advantage over Andres Gimenez. Rosario had a breakout 2019 in which he hit .287 with 15 HR's and 19 SB's, but took a big step back in 2020, slashing .252/.272/.371 with just 4 HR's and not a single SB in 46 games. Nearly all of his metrics declined - His K% rose 4%, his HardHit% dropped by 6%, his EV fell by 3 MPH, and his Launch Angle plummeted from 8.8 to 4.2 degrees. With an ADP of 330, fantasy owners apparently either believe his 2019 was an aberration, or that he won't end up being an everyday starter. Both of things are possible, but an argument can also be made that his 157-game sample in 2019 should outweigh the 46-game sample from 2020. If he does play every day, double-digit HR's and SB's and a decent BA are reasonable expectations, which makes Rosario a solid option if you still need to fill a MI slot in the final rounds of the draft.
Andres Gimenez has gotten off to good start this spring, going 4-7 with a HR and a 3B in the early going. While he only has 49 big-league games under his belt, a strong spring could allow Gimenez to challenge Rosario for the Indians' SS job. Gimenez has never shown much power, but he makes decent contact (21.2% K% last season) and more importantly for fantasy owners, he steals a lot bases. Gimenez combined for 66 SB's in the minors from 2018-19 before swiping 8 bags with the Mets in the abridged 2020 season. If he indeed plays regularly, he's worth a look based on his steals alone, but at this point, that's still a big if.
Who Will Round-Out the Indians' Rotation?
Even after trading four frontline pitchers over the past two years (Bauer, Kluber, Clevinger, and Carrasco), the Indians still look primed to have a strong rotation in 2020. The team seems to have a knack at developing starting pitchers, with their current top-4 starters (Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, Zack Plesac, and Triston McKenzie) all having emerged over the past 3 seasons. The #5 starter has not yet been determined, but considering the recent track record, every Tribe SP needs to be looked at closely.
Cal Quantrill came over from the Padres in the middle of last season, and pitched well in 2020 (both with SD and CLE) recording a 2.25 ERA with a 31:8 K:BB across 32 IP. Most of that work came in relief, although he did make 3 starts in which his ERA was a shiny 1.69. The Indians are considering him for the 5th spot in their rotation, but he didn't go more than 4 IP in any of his starts last year. He did make 18 starts for the Padres in 2019, recording a 5.69 ERA, 4.59 xFIP, and 1.35 WHIP as a starter. While his ERA dropped significantly last season, his xFIP only fell slightly to 4.27. In short, Quantrill has yet to prove that he can be an above average big-league starter, although this year may be his chance to do just that.
Logan Allen, another former Padre, appears to be Quantrill's main competition for the rotation spot. Allen struck out 2 in 2 scoreless IP in his Spring debut, but has struggled mightily in two MLB seasons, with a career 5.40 ERA, 5.35 xFIP, and an ugly 24:20 K:BB across 38.1 IP. If you're looking for a bright spot, he does have a 48.85 GB%, but other than that, he's statistically been pretty bad. That said, Allen has been considered a pretty good prospect and the Indians have done a good job at getting their young pitchers to succeed, so don't give up all hope yet. Right now though, he's still probably behind Quantrill for a spot in the rotation.
Adam Plutko could also be a rotation option for the Tribe, having made 36 starts for the Indians over the past 3 seasons. Plutko has a longer track than either Quantrill or Allen, but that could actually work against him as he a long track record of mediocrity. He has a career 5.05 ERA (5.58 xFIP) and 6.46 K/9, and the latter number was even worse in 2020 (4.88 K/9). To make matters worse, Plutko has a career 49.8% FB% and 21.6 LA which have led to a disastrous 2.03 HR/9. Unless there's an injury, the Indians are more likely to leave Plutko in the bullpen, and give the starting job to pitcher with a bit more upside.