Cleveland Sports Forum

Skinner's father, Bob, managed the Philadelphia Phillies from 1968-69 and the San Diego Padres in 1977. The two are the second father-son tandem to manage in the major leagues, joining Red Wing and Baseball Hall of Famer George Sisler (St. Louis Browns, 1924-26) and his son, Dick (Cincinnati Reds, 1964-65).

Fathers and sons both managers. How cool is that.

I thought Skinner got the message years ago.

Nice guy, but not a Major League manager.

Did the Philadephia Phillies overpay for Cleveland Indians' Carlos Santana? Hey, Hoynsie



Hey, Hoynsie: Is Carlos Santana really worth $20 million a year? Really? I’d rather have a platoon situation than Santana playing first at that price. I think the exit of Bryan Shaw and Joe Smith hurts the Indians more. – Tracy B. Gerhart, Mansfield.

Hey, Tracy: Free agents are worth what the market will bear. The Phillies wanted to make a statement to their players and city that they’re a team on the rise. I think a lot of people felt Santana would get $60 million for four rather than three years.

As for your comment about a platoon at first base, well, with the addition of Yonder Alonso we’ll get a chance to see how that works because he had much better numbers against righties than lefties.

Paul Hoynes, Cleveland.com


Phillies will regret signing Santana
Hey, Hoynsie: The Phillies are idiots for paying Carlos Santana that kind of money. Don’t be surprised if they don’t try to dump his salary in one or two years after they tire of him striking out with the bases loaded and constantly grounding out to second base. – Sean Skinner.

Hey, Sean: I gather you’re not a fan. Just the same, I'm sure Santana wishes you a Merry Christmas.


Miguel Cabrera to Tribe? No way
Hey, Hoynsie: Any chance the Indians could get Miguel Cabrera and some salary relief from the Tigers? – Joe, Naples, Fla.

Hey, Joe: No, nada, no way. The Tigers still owe Cabrera $192 million over the next six years. Cabrera will be 35 in April and is coming off one of his worst seasons. I'm not saying Cabrera has hit the wall, but there’s not enough salary relief in the world for the Indians to take on that deal.

Cleveland Indians vs. Minnesota Twins, September 27, 2017
The Cubs along with several other teams have talked to the Indians about a possible trade for right-hander Danny Salazar. (Chuck Crow, The Plain Dealer).

What about trade talks between Tribe and Cubs?
Hey, Hoynsie: I read that Cleveland inquired about Javier Baez and/or Kyle Schwarber for Danny Salazar or possibly Jason Kipnis. I felt this would be a good trade for the Indians. Could it happen? – Bryson Pursator, Mendota, Ill.

Hey, Bryson: The Cubs and Indians did talk at the winter meetings. The Cubs are looking for starting pitching and the Indians have some arms stockpiled. I don’t know if Schwarber was in the discussions or not, but I do know the Cubs were interested in Salazar. The Cubs, as you mentioned, have several interesting position players such as Baez, Addison Russell, Albert Almora and Ian Happ.

Right now, it looks like the Cubs are more interested in free agent pitching rather than making a trade, but you never know.


What price Francisco Lindor?
Hey, Hoynsie: We hear Manny Machado would bring a large haul to Baltimore even though he will be a free agent at the end of 2018. What would Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor bring with four years of control? – Jim, Annapolis.

Hey, Jim: All the king’s horses and all the king’s men. Not to mention a partridge in a pear tree.



Should Tribe make play for Miami's Christian Yelich?
Hey, Hoynsie: Considering the situation with the Indians – losing key players this offseason and more key players at the end of 2018, would they consider trading Francisco Mejia to Miami for outfielder Christian Yelich? – Jim B, Independence.

Hey, Jim: Considering the state of the outfield, and the fact that the Indians were willing to trade Mejia two years ago, I think they’d be interested. But Miami, conducting a fire sale, would want more than Mejia. Would you give up Mejia, Triston McKenzie and/or Bradley Zimmer for Yelich?

Yelich has $44.5 million left on his contract that is guaranteed through 2021. In today’s market that’s called a club friendly deal for a starting center fielder who hit .282 with 18 homers, 81 RBI and 16 steals last season.


Chris Antonetti (right), Indians president of baseball operations, and manager Terry Francona have talked about a lot of trades, but haven't made a big one yet this offseason. (Chuck Crow, The Plain Dealer).

A vote against trades
Hey, Hoynsie: I would like to know why every time the Indians have a good team that plays well together they start trading players? The Indians seem to get good, then fall apart and then they start trading players. – Carol Fox, Salem.

Hey, Carol: The Indians have lost some key players this winter through free agency – Santana, Bryan Shaw and Joe Smith. But they have yet to make a big trade that would break up the core of last year’s team that won 102 games. They’ve talked about making trades because it doesn’t seem like they have a lot of money to spend on free agency. But talk doesn’t necessarily lead to trades.


Simple solution: Move Jason Kipnis back to second
Hey, Hoynsie: Why don’t the Indians just move Jason Kipnis back to second base and put Jose Ramirez at third? Kipnis appears to be an every-other-year player, so he is due to have a big year in 2018. Ramirez is better defensively at second base, but I think this move would stabilize the infield. – John Heath.

Hey, John: That seems like the simplest solution if the Indians don’t trade Kipnis. Especially with the addition of Alonso to play first base. That means Michael Brantley in all likelihood is staying in left field, canceling another possible position for Kipnis to play.

At the winter meetings, manager Terry Francona said that was one of the options the Indians were considering. There’s still a long way until opening day. Let’s see what happens.


Are Indians interested in Billy Hamilton, Adam Duvall from the Reds?
Hey, Hoynsie: The Reds are reportedly shopping outfielders Billy Hamilton and Adam Duvall. The Tribe seems like a logical trade partner for either player. As for the question I know that you’ll ask, would I part with Bradley Zimmer to get this done? My answer would be yes. – Joe Cepec, Powell.

Hey, Joe: I can’t see the Reds trading both Hamilton and Duvall. It’s been reported by several news outlets that the Giants and Reds have been talking about Hamilton. The Giants are in need of a center fielder who can cover a lot of ground in the spacious outfield at AT&T Park.

The Reds reportedly want to make room for Jesse Winker in the outfield, but Duvall hit 31 homers and drove in 99 runs last season. As a right-handed hitter, he would certainly fit with the Indians although he did strikeout 170 times last year.

Duvall is not eligible for arbitration until the end of the 2018 season. What am I missing here? Maybe the Reds can make a good deal with the Giants for Hamilton, but why would they trade Duvall?

Regarding Kipnis:

I would think it's obvious at this point that the Indians DRastically prefer the defense of Jose Ramirez at 2B. And being a middle infield position they love him paired with Lindor. That's the problem, period.

I am with HB on putting Yandy at 1B vs left handed pitchers and I think that is EXACTLY what the team has in mind there.

And at 3B vs right handers. This is the year of Yandy.

Like many hitters in baseball's growing elevation environment, Yonder Alonso made a major adjustment.

Possessing a left-handed swing that occasionally flirted with a ground ball rate of 50 percent, Alonso made it a point to drive the ball in the air. He was rewarded last season with a 43.2 percent fly ball rate and career-high totals in homers (28), wRC+ (132) and wOBA (.366). He slashed .266/.365/.501 between stints with the Athletics and Mariners.

Armed with a new approach, Alonso is also now the beneficiary of a new contract, the reported two-year agreement with the Indians worth $16 million. The deal also includes a vesting option in year three for $9 million, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.

During last week's winter meetings, we wrote about the need to separate sustainability from a potential outlier. The majority of that piece used Logan Morrison as an example, but the 30-year-old Alonso fits a similar mold. Both hitters made a significant adjustment to their mentality, creating more lift and better numbers, of course, but also a need to question where that productivity came from.

“We're always looking for things and trying to figure out why a certain player was better or worse in a certain year,” Mike Chernoff said. “The challenge is pulling the layers back and knowing if it's going to stick moving forward.”

Rarely is that a quick, simple process.

So, let's unpack a complicated bit of analysis piece by piece. First, let's focus on Alonso's quality of contact last season. Using his launch angle and exit velocity, we're able to calculate the weighted on-base average (wOBA) he should have earned in 2017.

Sometimes, how well (or poorly) a hitter is performing isn't completely reflected in their numbers. Expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) isn't perfect, but it gives us another piece of an intricate puzzle. It strips away factors like defense and luck, giving us a glimpse of what should have happened after connecting.

Alonso's quality of contact and on-base ability (109.9 xwOBA+) were slightly better than some of the other free-agent first basemen, alternatives like Morrison (108.0), Matt Adams (109.3) and Lucas Duda (107.6). For some added context, the newly departed Carlos Santana finished at 113.8 last year, according to xStats.org.

Alonso's expected xwOBA (.368) was nearly identical to his actual wOBA (.376), which is just a complicated way of saying his contact quality suggests his overall production was no fluke.

While it's important to clear that hurdle, the real question isn't about the overall bottom line of last season's performance. The Indians would happily take another .866-OPS year from Alonso, even if his defense, consistency and overall value is a step down from Santana. However, if Alonso's offensive numbers were anywhere close to a guarantee, he certainly would have earned more than $16 million.

Sustainability is by far the biggest uncertainty.

Prior to last year, Alonso had never reached double digits in homers. A solid eye (9.6 career walk rate) and ability to avoid massive strikeout totals had kept him around league average as a hitter, but he was far from special. In an effort to become a more productive hitter, Alonso focused on a different approach this past spring, as he told Eno Sarris of FanGraphs and The Athletic.

“Did some mechanical things but also intent was important,” Alonso told Sarris. “I’m trying to punish it more, get it in the air.”

The ground balls went down, the fly balls went up. With more elevation came more power and meaningful hits. His 22.6 percent strikeout rate suggests he traded some contact for a rise in air balls, but his walk rate also climbed to career-high territory (13.1 percent) and he finished in the top 50 in pitches per plate appearance, seeing nearly four offerings per trip to the plate.

He also changed the overall location of the pitches he swung at. Here is a heat map of his 2016 swings.



Now, here are his swings in 2017. As you can see, he targeted pitches in a different zone.



He also began feasting on fastballs. His slugging marks in 2015 (.453) and 2016 (.411) against heaters were blown away by his .613 percentage against all fastball types in 2017. As a result, he saw a 7 percent drop in fastballs last year.

I can't say I blame the opposition.

But with all massive changes to a player's profile, the league adapts. They adjust. They seek out and target your weaknesses.

This is where we find the risk tied to Alonso.

He finished the first half with 20 homers and 146 wRC+. He was far more ordinary in the second half, clubbing just eight home runs and posting a 113 wRC+ after the break. The most glaring difference was a higher ground ball rate, cutting into his elevation, and ultimately, his performance.

First half

FB: 48.7%
GB: 30.2%
IFFB: 8.7%
HR/FB: 21.7%
K: 23.2%
BB: 13.1%

Second half

FB: 36.1%
GB: 38.9%
IFFB: 7.7%
HR/FB: 15.4%
K: 22.0%
BB: 13.0%

The fact that his strikeout and walk numbers stayed on par with his tremendous first half is encouraging, and even with a drop in power, he still managed to create 13 percent more runs than the league average in the second half. Still, by offering a guaranteed second year in the reported deal, the Indians are banking on the overall level of last year's performance, so it's worth pondering why his successful launch angle shift didn't carry over at the same clip after the All-Star break.

One theory suggested by Derek Florko (@SaberCoach) was an adjustment made by opposing pitchers. Essentially, they started to avoid Alonso's happy zones and attacked different areas of the plate.



That shift could help explain some of his second-half regression, proof of the constant cat-and-mouse game that exists between pitchers and hitters. Alonso, like a number of air ball converts, will have to prove capable of adjusting to the hurlers who are adjusting to them.

It's all part of baseball's ever-changing landscape.

Another interesting puzzle piece was Alonso's struggles down the stretch at Safeco Field. Following his trade to the Mariners in early August, the left-handed hitter continued punishing the opposition with a 140 wRC+ and .890 OPS on the road, but at his new home, his run-creation dropped 12 percent below league average and his OPS fell to .663.

Unfortunately, 64 plate appearances in Seattle's home park over the final two months are hardly enough to make sense of why his ground ball rate climbed 16 points higher at home, nor do Safeco's pitcher-friendly conditions completely explain the huge gap in production.

At Safeco following the trade

PA: 64
GB: 46.5%
FB: 37.2%
wRC+: 88
ISO: .123
OPS: .663

On the road following the trade

PA: 86
GB: 30.5%
FB: 39.0%
wRC+: 140
ISO: .213
OPS: .890

There's little to glean from a sample size that small, but it's curious. And his .200/.319/.338 slash line in 25 games at Safeco Field last season certainly didn't help the overall numbers.

Was he pressing after the trade? Hypnotized by Seattle's park dimensions? Hopped-up on too much Starbucks? These are the factors we can't exactly pick out from a spreadsheet or leaderboard.

The fact that Safeco has been one of the tougher parks for left-handed hitters and Progressive Field has been one of the more friendly certainly doesn't hurt Alonso in a transition to a new club.

His handedness, though, may become a focal point.

Last year, Alonso posted a .900 OPS against righties and a .679 mark against lefties. The Indians have been one of baseball's best in platoon advantage over the past several years (carrying several switch-hitters certainly helps), and it wouldn't be a surprise if they used a platoon partner for Alonso, particularly against the toughest lefties.

Perhaps this is where Yandy Diaz could emerge as a candidate to earn more plate appearances. However, Alonso's presence does nothing to answer where Michael Brantley, Jason Kipnis and Jose Ramirez will play this year.

All of this evidence points to one conclusion: The addition of Alonso is far from risk free — in fact, it may prove to be a decent-sized whiff — but last year's adjustments make him one of the most intriguing players on the market.

When a player like Alonso makes a tangible change, it offers a more clear explanation for a breakout year. Some can be quick to claim someone has “figured it out,” though, in reality, that player could easily slip back into old habits. Truth is, he's figured it out as long as he continues to carry the same philosophy that made him successful.

Going away from a refined offensive approach or being unable to continuously adjust to the opposition is part of what creates an outlier.

“What I often think we're trying to understand is what led to a player's performance,” Chris Antonetti said last week. “What are the underlying indicators that would give us reason to think that performance can continue on a similar trajectory or a different trajectory?”

Unfortunately, you can never know for sure. The Indians are content to pay $16 million over the next two years to find out.

He's not Santana (and he doesn't have to be to create positive value), but given the ceiling of Alonso's productivity, it may be a smart risk. And if he keeps elevating, he could be a massive steal.

The fact that Safeco has been one of the tougher parks for left-handed hitters and Progressive Field has been one of the more friendly certainly doesn't hurt Alonso in a transition to a new club.

All you need to know about this signing. Trading him to Safeco is death for left handed hitters. Remember Cano's Yankee years??

Indians Sign Fly-Ball Poster Boy Yonder Alonso
by Travis Sawchik - December 21, 2017

There were a number of potential first-base fits for Cleveland in a deep class that included other left-handed options like Matt Adams (who reached a one-year, $4 million deal with Nationals), Mitch Moreland (two years, $13 million with Red Sox) Lucas Duda, and Logan Morrison. Eric Hosmer’s ask, and perhaps inconsistency, likely pushed him out of consideration for the club.

Whether the Indians enjoy the first-half version of Alonso or the second-half one could determine whether they have picked the best value option from the class or just a so-so replacement for the excellent Santana, whom Dave and this author liked as the top free-agent first baseman available. Writing for The Athletic in November, I selected Alonso as the top value fit for the Indians’ first-base void.

We didn’t have to do much searching to learn that Alonso had designs on joining the merry band of fly-ball revolutionaries in 2017. He told Eno he was planning to do so last March.

“Did some mechanical things but also intent was important,” Alonso said in camp. “I’m trying to punish it more, get it in the air.” He agreed that aiming to put the ball in play in the air more was the major key for him this offseason as he worked.

Eno found this older side angle of Alonso to demonstrate his flatter swing:

https://streamable.com/o6ihm


And compared it to video from last spring with the A’s, after Alonso had added loft to his stroke:

https://streamable.com/m4a8x


The approach worked: Alonso produced career bests in on-base percentage (.365), slugging (.501), home runs (28), and wRC+ (132). Always in possession of a discipline approach, it became elite last year, Alonso posting an elite 13% walk rate. That could help fill the loss of Santana’s plus-plus batting eye. His discipline profile held steady across the season:

First half: 13.1 BB%, 23.2 K%

Second half: 13.0 BB%, 22.0 K%

While the new approach added some swing and miss to Alonso’s profile, it helped him crush fastballs.

Here’s Alonso’s slugging per fastball offered at in 2016:
And in 2017:

But the approach didn’t work evenly throughout the season. In the first half, Alonso slashed .275/.372/.562 with a 146 wRC+. (146!) In the second half, he slowed down, posting a .254/.354/.420 line and 113 wRC+. He was still better than a league-average hitter but he cooled.

What changed were his air balls. There was a strong correlation between his fly-ball rates and wOBA throughout the season.

What went wrong for Alonso in the second half? Alonso told Eno he was suffering through a timing issue.

“Just a little bit of timing issue right now,” he said last week. “Pitches I was hitting right I’m just missing — Late, early, just missed the ball.” Before he trailed off, he added something interesting: “I’ve been hitting a lot more foul balls.” …

Alonso says that he has a plan to fix the issue: “I’m working, doing the net drill. I feel like it’s about to come back.”

Indeed, the data provides some evidence for Alonso’s self-assessment, indicating a decline of his launch angle, particularly those balls launched in that 20-30 degree sweet spot where most home runs occur. Alonso told Eno that disrupted timing might also show up through his uptick in foul balls.

Alonso’s Quality of Contact in 2017
Month Avg. LA Air%, 20-30 Degrees Foul%
April 20.0 17.6 15.5
May 26.1 22.4 18.2
June 20.9 12.5 19.3
July 16.8 13.1 22.4
August 18.4 14.0 16.4
September 14.7 3.9 17.4
Can Alonso get his first-half profile back? If so, he could produce significant value.

It might necessitate the addition of a platoon partner. Alonso produced a wRC+ mark of 142 against righties and 80 against lefties last season. For his career, he’s recorded a 113 wRC+ versus righties and 84 against lefties. (Part of Santana’s charm, as a switch-hitter, is that he always had the platoon advantage, which allowed for more roster flexibility. Nevertheless, the Indians love platoons and have led the sport in batter platoon advantage five times in the last six seasons.)

Alfonso could also benefit from a change of environment. His 2017 wasn’t just about hitting the balls in the air: Alonso also pulled more of his fly balls, recording a career-high 23.6% of pulled fly balls, a six-point increase over this 2015-16 mark and well above the 18.2% mark for this career. Progressive Field is favorable for left-handed pull power.

Alonso ranked 21st in baseball in left-handed home runs hit to right field (16). For reference, Francisco Lindor ranked 19th (17).

His defensive performance could also improve in Cleveland.

Alonso produced the worst two defensive campaigns in 2016 and 2017, posting his first negative DRS (-3, -9) and UZR numbers (-1.1, -3.3) of his career. They were also two seasons in which he spent the majority of his time in the spacious Oakland Coliseum.

It’s possible that some of Alonso’s defensive metrics could improve by a move away from Oakland, as he will not be concerned with guarding a large swath of foul territory like he was in Oakland. UZR does not account for foul balls, but if you are a defender at third or first in Oakland, you have to be concerned with the amount of territory to cover. That consideration could alter positioning, which could negatively affect UZR and DRS score, which are heavily dependent upon range factor.

It made sense for the Indians to come to an agreement with one of the left-handed free-agent first basemen available. We’ll have to see if they’ve acquired the first-half Alonso or the second-half version. In either case, they have a player who is intent on lifting the ball into the juiced-ball jet stream. In a game becoming more extreme, they have a player who is trying to swim with the game’s current, not against it.

This guy basically worked his ass off to be a better hitter. Another good asset to have.

Antonetti/Chernoff are such great assets - they do their homework along with their staffs (which seem to get hired in other places quite often)

Yonder can perhaps pass on to Yandy the secret of hitting the ball in the air. Diaz had an insanely low ground ball/air ball ratio in 2017 with the resulting minimal number of extra base hits. If Yandy can add a bit of power to his offensive skills he can be a very valuable hitter.

Let's hope Alonso can hit them into the wild blue yonder!

civ ollilavad wrote:Yonder can perhaps pass on to Yandy the secret of hitting the ball in the air. Diaz had an insanely low ground ball/air ball ratio in 2017 with the resulting minimal number of extra base hits. If Yandy can add a bit of power to his offensive skills he can be a very valuable hitter.

One of the saber experts on MLB Now mentioned Yandy's elite hard hit ball rate combined with ultra high ground ball rate.

LOL, yeah let's get those HARD HIT grounders into the air.

Civ and TFIR- I had the same thought about Yonder and Yandy. They are both Cuban and should communicate well.

One more thing on Yonder - last season's stats were compiled in a crappy (Oakland) and crappier (Seattle) hitting environment.

Progressive Field smiles on left handed hitters - turning Lindor into a slugger. And I don't doubt Jay Bruce liked it too, although he did show nice power to left center.

2018 Cleveland Indians Minor League Preview
December 17, 2017 | 2018 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Prospects | 27 Comments
by: Ralph Lifshitz

Wake up Sheeple! I bet the mainstream media will tell you that the Indians system is top heavy and that outside of the top four it’s all high upside teenagers. I bet you’re hearing that! I’m here to tell you that’s totally #fakenews. The Indians system is three really nice talents and a whole bunch of high upside teenagers. Then again, I’m not sure where that leaves Yu-Cheng Chang, who is neither a teenager or one of those elite level talents. He’s a nice power and speed player in the Indians top 5, who happens to be currently generating traffic to this post from his homeland of Taiwan. I learned this trick from Halp. True Story!

Any the hootie-hoo, this is one of the more hitter heavy lists I’ll write this year. Which is probably okay for the Indians, they won’t have too many spots to fill in the rotation with Kluber, Carrasco, Bauer, Salazar, and Mike Clevinger under contract until 2020. So, if you’re a fan of some of the quad-A types destined for middle relief littered throughout the Tribe’s system, then you’re going to be severely disappointed.

Overall it’s a farm in flux, some talented players with an arrival window in the next two years, and a lot of lottery tickets with four year+ ETAs. Also switch-hitters, the Indians love switch-hitters. Don’t be frightened off though, there’s some jewels in these here blurbs! Read on noble future dynasty champion, it’s the 2018 Cleveland Indians Top Prospects.



1. Francisco Mejia, C | Level: AA | Age: 22 | 2017 Stats: .297/.346/.490, 14 HR, 52 RBI, 7 SB

The only catching prospect worth going out of your way for. In fact he’s the best catching prospect since Gary Sanchez, and in all fairness, he’s way more hyped than Sanchez was. Might see Cleveland next year, but is likely a year or more away from a true impact. Contact first switch hitter, developing real power. ETA: 2018

2. Triston McKenzie, RHP | Level: A+ | Age: 20 | 2017 Stats: 12-6, 143 IP, 3.46 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 186 K, 45 Bb

One of my absolute favorite pitching prospects in the game, and an arm I want to own everywhere. What McKenzie lacks in frame he makes up for with length and athleticism. Wait, did I just describe every small forward that can’t shoot? Oops, wrong sport! “Sticks” misses bats, limits hard contact, and eats innings. Oh, and he’s only 20. ETA: 2019

3. Bobby Bradley, 1B | Level: AA | Age: 21 | 2017 Stats: .251/.331/.466 23 HR, 89 RBI, 3 SB

Despite contact issues coming into 2017, Bradley did well to drop his strikeout rate to an acceptable 22%, while maintaining a 10% Bb%. Rather impressive for a player who was 20 coming into the season, and spent the whole year at the AA level. It’s not his OBP that puts him in the top 50, it’s his light tower power, and potential 40 homer ceiling. ETA: 2019

4. Nolan Jones, 3B | 2017 Level: A | Age: 19 | 2017 Stats: .317/.430/.482 4 HR, 33 RBI, 1 SB

The second rounder out of Philly Area, Holy Ghost Prep, is starting to make good on some of his prospect hype heading into the 2016 draft. This past season was a true breakout, as Jones showed an improved approach, and more game power than he flashed in his pro debut. He combines contact, plate discipline, projectable power, and the ability to stick at the hot corner. ETA: 2020

5. Yu-Cheng Chang, SS | Level: AA | Age: 22 | 2017 Stats: .220/.312/.461, 24 HR, 66 RBI, 11 SB

As if I didn’t mention Chang enough in the opening, but truth be told, he might be one of the least hyped middle infield prospects with fantasy upside. A quick right-handed swing, above average power, a patient approach, and double digit steal speed, make Chang an intriguing player in dynasty leagues with 150+ minor league players owned. The strikeouts will limit is batting average ultimately, but if he can stick at short, or even second base, he’ll be a solid Marcus Semien type. There’s a chance we see Chang this year, but there’s a bit of a log jam in Cleveland’s middle infield. Making it likely that Chang breaks into the majors with whatever team he’s traded to… ETA: 2019

6. Will Benson, OF | Level: A- | Age: 19 | 2017 Stats: .238/.347/.475, 10 HR, 36 RBI, 7 SB

This is the point where the high upside teenagers I talked about begin to show up. Benson has loud tools, the body of a Greek god, elite bat speed, and double plus raw power. What’s not to love right? Strikeouts, he’s your prototypical three outcome guy, with all the flash to make you fall in love. He’ll probably be an above average runner early in his career, but as his body matures he’ll evolve into your prototypical power-hitting corner outfielder. The thing I love about Benson is despite his propensity to swing and miss, he still walks at an elite 12%+ rate with consistency. Which is why it’s funny to say that he’s still very raw, but he is. In closing, I like Benson, and would look to add him now while his value remains relatively low. ETA: 2020

7. George Valera, OF | Level: N/A | Age: 17 | 2017 Stats: Has Not Played

One of the top bats in the 2017 July 2nd class, Valera is an interesting story as he grew up in New York City, but moved to the Dominican Republic. A short, compact, but powerful lefty swing, Valera gets comped to Juan Soto frequently, earning him a high rank on this list sight unseen. We could be talking about THE elite hitter of this international class, and one that ended up in an organization with a track record of developing young toolsy players into stars. ETA: 2021

8. Greg Allen, OF | Level: AA | Age: 24 | 2017 Stats: .267/.345/.355, 2 HR, 26 RBI, 24 SB

Do we have a future King of SAGNOF? Has Rajai Davis’ title been vacated? If so, Allen looks like he’s got a real shot at it with some full-time at bats. There’s very little power, but Allen gets on base, has above average contact skills, and can run like the bastard child of Dee Gordon and The Flash. Perhaps he’s not that fast, but plus plus speed is legit. Likely will be relegated to a fourth outfielder in Cleveland, but could develop into your Rajai Davis/Jarrod Dyson type. ETA: 2018

9. Conner Capel, OF | Level: A | Age: 20 | 2017 Stats: .246/.316/.478, 22 HR, 61 RBI, 15 SB

I have to be honest Capel has sort of slipped under my radar to this point, and while his batting average is gross, the power and speed is very real. A work in progress, Capel reworked his 2016 swing, which was very upper body dependent, and got his bottom half more involved with a leg kick. The results speak for themselves as Capel really tapped into his power in his full season debut. His batted ball profile backs this as well, as his GB% decreased from 57.7% in his pro debut to 38.1% this year, while his FB% increased nearly 20% year over year. Despite all the changes the thing that stuck out the most when observing Capel was his ability to grind out at bats. He sees lots of pitches, fouls stuff off, and battles, every time he’s up. Here’s the catch, I haven’t even really dug in on Capel’s standout tool, his 70 grade speed. It certainly doesn’t manifest itself in his steal efficiency this year, but make no mistake Capel can run. A true dynasty league sleeper, Capel might be a player to target late in deep dynasty drafts. ETA: 2020

10. Quentin Holmes, OF | Level: RK | Age:18 | 2017 Stats: .182/.220/.289, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 5 SB

He might be no Shohei Ohtani, but Holmes has off the scale speed. The fastest player in the most recent draft class, Holmes is a high upside athlete, with a raw hit tool at the moment. He reminds me of a lot of talented, toolsy prep players from cold weather states that make major strides in their first full year of proball. I would look for the contact and approach to improve over the next few years, but only foresee a moderate power ceiling. If it all comes together Holmes could develop into a first division leadoff hitter, and a name regularly among the league leaders in steals. ETA: 2021

11. Shane Bieber, RHP | Level: AA | Age: 22 | 2017 Stats: 10-5, 173.1 IP, 2.86 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 162 Ks, 10 Bb

A classic polished college arm, the Indians plucked Bieber out of UC Santa Barbara in the 4th round last year, and he impressed in his first full season, jumping three levels of the minors, while maintaining a sub-3 ERA. His plus control and command play up his average three pitch mix, generating more swing and miss than you think, he had a 13% SwStr% in AA, as well as generating a fair amount of groundballs. With a prototypical pitcher’s build Bieber’s combination of plus command and elite pitching acumen, gives him a real possibility of a mid-rotation ceiling. Interesting stat on Bieber, he allowed only 8 homers, and 10 walks over 170+ innings. He had as many wins as walks this year. ETA: 2019

12. Willi Castro, SS | Level: A+ | Age: 20 | 2017 Stats: .290/.337/.424, 11 HR, 58 RBI, 19 SB

A switch-hitting shortstop with gap to gap power and plus speed, Castro is another talented bat in the Indians system. He’s been named a league all-star in consecutive years, first with low-A affiliate Lake County, and then with high-A Lynchburg this season. Good bat to ball skills from both sides of the plate, his swing is more geared to line drives right now, but he should grow into at least average power. ETA: 2020

13. Tyler Freeman, 2B/SS | Level: Rk | Age: 18 | 2017 Stats: .297/.364/.414, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 5 SB

The 71st overall pick is a middle infielder with plus hitting ability, and a line drive, contact first approach. That’s not to say he doesn’t have power, he does, it’s mostly driven from high quality contact. He’s a barrel machine, making easy contact from his simple righty swing. Not the most exciting player from a power or speed standpoint, but he has Michael Young type upside. Not a bad value pick in first year player drafts, he ranked 42nd on my Top 50. I might be the high man on Freeman amongst my fantasy prospectoring peers. ETA: 2021

14. Brady Aiken, LHP | Level: A | Age: 21 | 2017 Stats: 5-13, 132 IP, 4.77 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 89 Ks, 101 Bb

Wow… Seriously how bad is Brady Aiken? He had 101 walks to 89 strikeouts in 132 innings. Think about how bad that is. He’s like the anti-Bieber. Overrated with no control. He’s fourteenth on this list and he still feels like kind of a reach. Perhaps I’m being too harsh. But am I? This is a two time first rounder, and former #1 pick. I guess his undersized UCL just can’t handle the rigors of professional pitching. He’s never really returned from Tommy John surgery, losing nearly 10 MPH on his fastball, as well as some of the crispness to his curveball, though that still flashes plus. If Aiken is to rebound he’ll need to regain his fastball velocity, and repeat his mechanics. At the moment he’s a mess, unable to find the strike zone and devoid of his once highly regarded stuff. ETA: 2021

15. Johnathan Rodriguez, OF | Level: Rk | Age: 18 | 2017 Stats: .250/.381/.333, 0 HR, 11 RBI, 0 SB

One of the youngest players in this draft class, Rodriguez just turned 18 a little over a month ago. At the moment Rodriguez is projection over performance, but scouts love his athleticism and huge build. He’s a switch-hitter, but needs work on both sides of the plate to tap into his massive raw power. He has all the tools to develop into a superstar, but he’s a long term project for Cleveland, and therefore only a good fit for a league where you can stash a player for five years. ETA: 2022

16. Oscar Gonzalez, OF | Level: A- | Age: 19 | 2017 Stats: .283/.301/.388, 3 HR, 34 RBI, 0 SB

A hot name last winter after tearing the cover off the ball in the rookie level AZL league, Gonzalez was a bit more pedestrian in the New York-Penn League this season. He did well to drop his strikeout rate by 10%, but walked at an Odor-esque rate. At 19 he still has plenty of time to improve his pitch recognition skills, but until he does, he’ll forever be a promising power bat. ETA: 2021

civ and HB - don't you love the anti-Bieber comment?