Which means he's ours for 2015, 2016 2017 and 2018. Who knows if he, or any pitcher, can sustain his level of success longer than that.
That said, however, I'd like to see the Indians award him a bonus in excess of the $10,000 that he contract calls for for winning the Cy Young. As if anyone gave that prospect the remotest chance when he signed the deal. $100,000 bonus would be good cheap publicity for the Indians proof that they support their young players.
And a bonus to Calloway too before he picks up and moves on to a big market team.
Re: General Discussion
4953Kluber deserved it. lets hope he continues to pitch at that or better level and that we keep him.
Re: General Discussion
4956This was posted back at the end of July when Kluber hadn't moved into his highest gear yet
What might an extension for Kluber look like?
Kluber is in his second year of pre-arbitration, which means the Indians can pay him the league minimum again in 2015, and then go through arbitration with him in 2016, 2017, and 2018. I went through and tried to find all the pitchers who signed an extension during the last three years, when they were within a year of Kluber in terms of service time, meaning they were either about to enter arbitration for the first time, or had one or two more seasons of pre-arbitration to go. I may have missed one or two, but this is what I found, with the guaranteed years/money of the deal, the number of pre-arbitration years covered by the extension, the number of free agent years covered, the player-age in the first season of each extension, and each pitcher's career WAR heading into the first season of the extension:
Player Years/Money Pre-Arb Years FA Years Age in Year 1 fWAR
As you can see, five years is the standard for this type of extension. It should be noted that all of those extensions also included team options. Teheran's had one option, the other seven all had two club options. Other than Luebke (lower) and Sale (higher), all of those option years were for between $10-12 million.
Bumgarner, Holland, Niese, and Sale were all at the point Kluber would be, were he to sign an extension that began next year. Kluber is already at 7.7 fWAR, and if he keeps pitching the way he has, he'll top any of the fWAR totals these other pitchers had when their extensions began. Factor in a little inflation to account some of those deals being signed 2-3 years ago, and something like 5 years, $33-37 million is probably what it takes, with the Indians getting a couple team options too, for $10-12 million each.
On the other hand, Kluber will be 29 next year, making him older than anyone else on the list, and at least four years older than most of them. I don't think that does a lot to lower the annual cost, but it might mean it makes more sense to go only 4 guaranteed years. The last year of this sort of extension is usually the most expensive, so 4 guaranteed years might run $24-28 million (with the Indians till being able to expect a pair of team-option years)
What if they go year-to-year instead?
If the Indians choose to go year-to-year, they can pay Kluber ~$500,000 next year. Looking at comparable starters who've recently had their first year of arbitration (a group that includes Justin Masterson, Rick Porcello, Stephen Strasburg, and Doug Fister), I think it's fair to think Kluber would earn $5-6 million in his first year of arbitration if his 2015 is similar to how he's done during his career to date. Starting pitchers going up an average of ~70% in their second and third seasons of arbitration eligibility, which means the Indians can expect to pay Kluber anywhere from $28-34 million over the next four seasons, if they go year-to-year and Kluber stays healthy and pitches something close to the way he has to date.
What should the Indians do?
A quick summary of the figures I've come up with:
My best guess at an extension: 4 years, $26 million or 5 years, $35 million, with two team options for $10-12 million either way
My best guess at the year-to-year cost, if Kluber stays healthy: 4 years, $31 million, then he's gone
The injury risk isn't really worth it to save just the $5 million difference in my best guesses above, but If Kluber keeps pitching the way he has this season though, that year-to-year cost is going to be higher, maybe totaling as much as $40 million (that's a very high-end possibility, but David Price is going to earn more than that in his final three seasons before free agency).
If you think what we're seeing this year from Kluber is real, or even 80% real, I think the potential savings are worth the risk. When you add in a couple team-friendly option years, I think the Indians should definitely be pushing to get an extension done, with the four-year option being best in my view, because of Kluber's age. The Indians would then have their five best players all locked up with cost certainty for another 3-5 years, with options to keep most of them longer. Roll the dice and get the cost certainty, then go about bringing in the other pieces needed to contend in those years.
What might an extension for Kluber look like?
Kluber is in his second year of pre-arbitration, which means the Indians can pay him the league minimum again in 2015, and then go through arbitration with him in 2016, 2017, and 2018. I went through and tried to find all the pitchers who signed an extension during the last three years, when they were within a year of Kluber in terms of service time, meaning they were either about to enter arbitration for the first time, or had one or two more seasons of pre-arbitration to go. I may have missed one or two, but this is what I found, with the guaranteed years/money of the deal, the number of pre-arbitration years covered by the extension, the number of free agent years covered, the player-age in the first season of each extension, and each pitcher's career WAR heading into the first season of the extension:
Player Years/Money Pre-Arb Years FA Years Age in Year 1 fWAR
Code: Select all
]Madison Bumgarner 5/$35M 1 1 23 9.1
Gio Gonzalez 5/$42M 0 2 26 6.7
Derek Holland 5/$28.5M 1 1 25 5.3
Cory Luebke 4/$12M 2 0 27 2.3
Jon Niese 5/$25.5M 1 1 25 4.6
Jose Quintana 5/$21M 2 0 25 5.3
Chris Sale 5/$32.5M 1 1 24 6.5
Julio Teheran 6/$32.4M 2 1 23 2.4 As you can see, five years is the standard for this type of extension. It should be noted that all of those extensions also included team options. Teheran's had one option, the other seven all had two club options. Other than Luebke (lower) and Sale (higher), all of those option years were for between $10-12 million.
Bumgarner, Holland, Niese, and Sale were all at the point Kluber would be, were he to sign an extension that began next year. Kluber is already at 7.7 fWAR, and if he keeps pitching the way he has, he'll top any of the fWAR totals these other pitchers had when their extensions began. Factor in a little inflation to account some of those deals being signed 2-3 years ago, and something like 5 years, $33-37 million is probably what it takes, with the Indians getting a couple team options too, for $10-12 million each.
On the other hand, Kluber will be 29 next year, making him older than anyone else on the list, and at least four years older than most of them. I don't think that does a lot to lower the annual cost, but it might mean it makes more sense to go only 4 guaranteed years. The last year of this sort of extension is usually the most expensive, so 4 guaranteed years might run $24-28 million (with the Indians till being able to expect a pair of team-option years)
What if they go year-to-year instead?
If the Indians choose to go year-to-year, they can pay Kluber ~$500,000 next year. Looking at comparable starters who've recently had their first year of arbitration (a group that includes Justin Masterson, Rick Porcello, Stephen Strasburg, and Doug Fister), I think it's fair to think Kluber would earn $5-6 million in his first year of arbitration if his 2015 is similar to how he's done during his career to date. Starting pitchers going up an average of ~70% in their second and third seasons of arbitration eligibility, which means the Indians can expect to pay Kluber anywhere from $28-34 million over the next four seasons, if they go year-to-year and Kluber stays healthy and pitches something close to the way he has to date.
What should the Indians do?
A quick summary of the figures I've come up with:
My best guess at an extension: 4 years, $26 million or 5 years, $35 million, with two team options for $10-12 million either way
My best guess at the year-to-year cost, if Kluber stays healthy: 4 years, $31 million, then he's gone
The injury risk isn't really worth it to save just the $5 million difference in my best guesses above, but If Kluber keeps pitching the way he has this season though, that year-to-year cost is going to be higher, maybe totaling as much as $40 million (that's a very high-end possibility, but David Price is going to earn more than that in his final three seasons before free agency).
If you think what we're seeing this year from Kluber is real, or even 80% real, I think the potential savings are worth the risk. When you add in a couple team-friendly option years, I think the Indians should definitely be pushing to get an extension done, with the four-year option being best in my view, because of Kluber's age. The Indians would then have their five best players all locked up with cost certainty for another 3-5 years, with options to keep most of them longer. Roll the dice and get the cost certainty, then go about bringing in the other pieces needed to contend in those years.
Re: General Discussion
4957Hats off to both of them!civ ollilavad wrote:Kluber and NL ROY deGrom both attended Stetson University in Florida
Re: General Discussion
4958Victor had a great year at the plate but I'm still surprised that a top notch DH beat out a 5-tool player. But it's hard to complain when Michael is rated the #3 position player in the AL only behind talents like those two.
Re: General Discussion
4959Hoynes writes that the Indians have talked to Masterson about a 1 yr deal. That would give us 8 starters, two have options left.
Makes me wonder if we aren't talking to Atlanta about a SP.
Makes me wonder if we aren't talking to Atlanta about a SP.
Re: General Discussion
4960I doubt they offer Masterson a deal. They got turned down on their 3 yr offer this spring and his value has dropped like a rock. He is a nice guy so the Tribe might offer him a one year deal if he can't find a job. Callaway will fix him up so he can get a multi-year deal next year from somebody else.
Re: General Discussion
4961He might, but he wasn't able to straighten Justin out last summer. Nor could the Cards who sure know how to develop pitchers.Callaway will fix him up so he can get a multi-year deal next year from somebody else.
Re: General Discussion
4962Masterson always has a great season every other year. I'd love to sign him to 1 yr deal.
Re: General Discussion
4963The Indians have signed a pair of right-handed pitchers to minor-league contracts with non-roster invitations to spring training.
Shaun Marcum was in the organization last year after signing a non-roster deal. Marcum, 32, spent most of the season rehabbing from right shoulder surgery that had been done in July 2013 and made just eight appearances with one start in August with Triple A Columbus. Marcum was 1-0 with the Clippers and had a 2.35 ERA.
Marcum is a nine-year Major League veteran and has a 58-46 record with a 3.88 ERA. He has previously been with Toronto, Milwaukee and the New York Mets.
Dustin Molleken has been in the Pittsburgh, Colorado and Milwaukee organizations but has yet to make his major-league debut. In 283 appearances in the minors, he is 33-22 with a 4.90 ERA and has been used primarily as a reliever since 2009. Molleken, 30, also was with the Nippon Ham Fighters in Japan in 2012-13, compiling a 3.38 ERA in 28 appearances.
Shaun Marcum was in the organization last year after signing a non-roster deal. Marcum, 32, spent most of the season rehabbing from right shoulder surgery that had been done in July 2013 and made just eight appearances with one start in August with Triple A Columbus. Marcum was 1-0 with the Clippers and had a 2.35 ERA.
Marcum is a nine-year Major League veteran and has a 58-46 record with a 3.88 ERA. He has previously been with Toronto, Milwaukee and the New York Mets.
Dustin Molleken has been in the Pittsburgh, Colorado and Milwaukee organizations but has yet to make his major-league debut. In 283 appearances in the minors, he is 33-22 with a 4.90 ERA and has been used primarily as a reliever since 2009. Molleken, 30, also was with the Nippon Ham Fighters in Japan in 2012-13, compiling a 3.38 ERA in 28 appearances.
Re: General Discussion
496430 year old rookie sounds like a replacement for someone like Toru Murata or Duke Von Schamman on the AA/AAA express, not a candidate for the big league club.
Re: General Discussion
4965Ken Rosenthal: Sources: #Indians exploring wide range of options, including a trade of Swisher for another player with an inflated contract.