Erik Gonzalez (Photo: IBI)
IBI Stock Watch: Gonzalez, Head among many improving stock
By Tony Lastoria
May 28, 2014
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Today is the first “stock watch” of the 2014 season for players in the Indians’ minor league system. This report is a snapshot of a few players up and down the system and how their value may be decreasing or increasing as prospects.
As always, it comes down to “value” when looking at prospects, and not necessarily stats. This piece will hopefully help illustrate who is improving that value and who is not as the season wears on. The values for players could fluctuate over the course of the season depending on performance, observations from myself and scouts, injuries, and ultimately how they are developing.
The same players are not always featured as I look at four to six players from each affiliate and try to mix it up with new names when I can, but the highlights and lowlights in the system dictate who is featured.
Key:
↑ - way up; → - trending up; ↔ - no movement; ← - trending down; ↓ - way down
Columbus
→ Roberto Perez (C): 25 G, .342/.455/.603, 5 HR, 17 RBI, 15 BB, 19 K. One of the most interesting performances in the early going this season has come from Perez. He always showed a solid approach where he was overly patient to the degree where he drew a lot of walks but made weak contact when he put the ball in play, but this season he has shown a significant spike in his power as he has a .261 ISO and is making some great contact. The defense was already Major League caliber so this is a good development, though it is still too early to get carried away about his improvement at the plate. The left hamstring injury he suffered on May 13th has kept him out of the lineup since then and hopefully has not ruined the momentum he created for himself, but he’s definitely improved his stock.
↔ Carlos Moncrief (OF): 47 G, .244/.287/.363, 3 HR, 13 RBI, 4 BB, 20 K. Interestingly, through 48 games as of May 28th last year at Double-A Akron, Moncrief was hitting .246 with 5 HR, 19 RBI and .699 OPS, and also had 21 walks and 45 strikeouts. His power numbers are down a little at Columbus and his walks are too, but his strikeouts are way down from where they were at this point last season – a sign he is really trying to hone in on his approach all while making the adjustment to Triple-A. A lot more is expected of him this season, but there is a long way to go and he has a history of getting hot in June and July, so until then he gets the benefit of the doubt that he will improve as the season wears on.
→ Giovanny Urshela (3B): 48 G, .267/.311/.483, 8 HR, 32 RBI, 10 BB, 36 K. Most of that line is from the 24 games at Akron when he hit .300 with 5 HR, 19 RBI and .914 OPS as since joining Columbus he is hitting just .233 with 3 HR, 13 RBI and .674 OPS in 24 games. The performance at Akron was encouraging and exactly what everyone was hopeful for in a repeat showing there, and like last season at Akron we should be very patient with him as he now adjusts to Triple-A where he will need some time to settle in. Considering all of the Indians problems defensively, the growth of him as a hitter is essential so that they can get his Gold Glove caliber defense inserted at third base every day at Progressive Field.
← Jose Ramirez (2B): 27 G, .303/.355/.459, 4 HR, 18 RBI, 11 BB, 11 K. Ramirez has performed well at Triple-A, shown some versatility and done everything the Indians have asked him to; however, he really struggled in his short call up to Cleveland this month. In 11 games with the Indians he was just 2-for-25 at the plate, did not draw a walk, and showed very weak contact. It would be unfair to judge him based on 25 sporadic at bats, but he had a grand opportunity with Jason Kipnis out to make an impression and failed to do so in the limited chances he received. He’s still in the Major League mix but he’s taken a small step back in terms of value to the organization and only strengthened the position held by some that he is but a utility player at best in the big leagues and not an everyday player.
↔ Austin Adams (RHP): 17 G, 4.09 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9, 7.8 K/9. Adams is having a solid showing in his Triple-A debut with good numbers across the board. While the strikeouts are down and he has been bit a little by the home run bug (1.2 HR/9) he has thrown strikes much more consistently this season – which is evident by the drop in his 4.8 BB/9 last year to the 2.0 BB/9 he has right now. Maintaining that consistency of the strike zone all while commanding his fastball and breaking ball and executing his pitches will be what he needs to do in order to get a Major League opportunity later this season.
Akron
↔ Bryson Myles (OF): 43 G, .284/.353/.419, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 13 BB, 39 K. Myles season to date is almost a carbon copy of his season last year at High-A Carolina. Last year he had an 8.2% walk rate and this season he has a 7.4% walk rate, and his strikeout rate (21.5% to 22.3%), isolated power (.142 to .135), batting average (.285 to .284), on-base percentage (.357 to .353), slugging percentage (.427 t0 .419) and wRC+ (119 to 115) are all in line with one another from year to year. He’s not making any considerable strides, but he’s proving consistency which is half the battle in the minors. He’s a solid prospect for the Indians.
← Joe Wendle (2B): 48 G, .231/.294/.387, 4 HR, 23 RBI, 14 BB, 32 K. Wendle has had an interesting season. His numbers are not nearly at the level they were expected to be this season, but they are not as bad as they look as 19 of his 43 hits have gone for extra bases, he has a solid .156 isolated power and he has a .258 BABIP which is weighing down his average and overall production at the plate some. Still, much more was expected of him at this point. He is a guy that half the industry was not in on after last season as they felt he dominated the High-A circuit because of his advanced age and bat for the level and that his performance would level out considerably at the much tougher Double-A level. So far those pundits have been proven right, although there is a long way to go this season. Bottom line, as a player with little versatility and average at best defense, he has to hit and hit well.
↓ Jordan Smith (OF): 43 G, .210/.260/.248, 0 HR, 11 RBI, 10 BB, 38 K. It has been a miserable season to date for Smith and one where he has really hurt his value in just a third of a season. The questions about his power and bat speed are really surfacing at Double-A and his approach has also fallen apart. He has always been a guy who walked around 10% of the time and struck out only about 10-12% of the time, but this season his walk rate has plummeted to 5.9% and he is striking out 22.5% of the time. He is also showing absolutely no power at the plate with a .038 ISO and has a 41 wRC+. Those are some awful numbers. Thankfully, Smith is a gifted defender with lots of athleticism and is one of the Indians best prospects otherwise he would have been shipped back to High-A Carolina a long time ago. He had a big second half last season and will need a strong showing the final three months of the season to restore his standing in the system.
↓ Ronny Rodriguez (INF): 38 G, .187/.225/.317, 3 HR, 16 RBI, 7 BB, 26 K. The fall of Ronny Rod has been swift and hard. Once regarded as one of the Indians best young prospects, he has really struggled at the Double-A level the last two years – particularly this season. Whether it is the lack of an everyday position, a ridiculously low .202 BABIP weighing him down, or him simply just reaching his peak as a player, he is a long way from being a Major League option – if ever. He still lacks any patience at the plate whatsoever and advanced pitchers are taking advantage of that and getting him to make weak contact by expanding the zone and swinging at borderline strikes early in the count or balls well out of the zone. He had a nice showing in 2012 at High-A Carolina, but that just might be the pinnacle of his success as his value has since dropped considerably.
↑ Joseph Colon (RHP): 10 GS, 2.30 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9, 6.1 K/9. Colon is really not pitching any different than he has in previous seasons. In fact, his walk rate is up a little, his strikeout rate is down a little, and his FIP is up a little, so one could argue he is actually pitching worse than he did last season at High-A Carolina. But Colon is showing durability and is really getting stronger every time out. It has never been a question of stuff with him nor about numbers, it has always been about health and he is showing it so far this season and in the process is gaining a lot of momentum as a prospect. He is a hard sinkerballer with a fastball that sits at 92-94 MPH and has touched 97 MPH and has some solid offspeed stuff, so if he can continue to show durability and refine his command he is a Major League starting option for the Indians next season and perhaps near the end of this season if the Indians are desperate. He is all but certain to be added to the 40-man in the offseason.
← Cody Anderson (RHP): 10 GS, 4.35 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9, 5.6 K/9. No pitcher has disappointed more this season in the early going than Anderson. A lot of that disappointment may be the result of some unrealistic expectations after a very good showing at High-A Carolina and his standing as one of the top prospects in the organization coming into the season, but nonetheless, his performance and development this season has been a disappointment. His velocity is down a tad and he is just not fooling or overpowering Double-A hitters like he did last season at Carolina. He is also showing why strikeouts can often be such a determinant to success as he is down over two and a half strikeouts per nine innings, a humungous drop from one year to the next and a number which makes him more of a backend starter than a middle or frontend guy.
↑ Tyler Sturdevant (RHP): 17 G, 1.19 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9, 8.3 K/9. Sturdevant is 28 years old so his prospect value is not high to begin with, but he is also a guy who has endured quite the laundry list of injuries over his college and pro career and held him back. He was really on a roll in 2011 and was a Major League option going into the 2012 season before a shoulder injury and other injuries held him hostage the last two years, but he now appears to be 100% healthy and back to being a legit bullpen prospect for the Indians. He throws strikes, throws hard, has some interesting offspeed stuff and most importantly gets results. He may be old for a prospect, but like a fine wine, sometimes a player just needs some time and age well.
Carolina
→ Erik Gonzalez (SS): 36 G, .311/.346/.424, 1 HR, 18 RBI, 8 BB, 28 K. I will admit, I was not really big on Gonzalez going into the season, even in light of his impressive campaign last year between Low-A Lake County and High-A Carolina. I just never liked him after what I saw at Single-A Mahoning Valley in 2012 and in years prior to that, but I am becoming a believer. He has had one of the most impressive showings early in the season and has been the main source of offense at Carolina. He is not showing as much power as last season but his at bats are improving and he is really solidifying himself as a legit shortstop option. With his size, athleticism, natural power and some speed, this is a guy to really keep tabs on going forward – though I am still cautioned by his Ronny Rodriguez-like plate discipline that may prove to be an issue once he reaches Double-A.
→ Ryan Merritt (LHP): 10 GS, 1.71 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9, 7.0 K/9. Merritt has been a model of consistency from last season to this season. He is not a guy who is going to dominate a lineup with impressive stuff, he instead is a guy who is going to mix up his pitches, command the baseball, throw strikes and use his smarts to get outs. He had a 3.42 ERA last season at Lake County and has a 1.71 ERA this season at Carolina, but the significant difference in ERA does not mean he has been twice the pitcher this season. In fact, he was just as effective last season as his walk rate and strikeout rate are nearly identical and his FIP this season is within 50 points of last season’s mark. Even still, he is performing at a higher level and showing remarkable consistency and the ability to haul innings. There is a ton of value there.
→ Shawn Morimando (LHP): 10 GS, 3.73 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9, 6.4 K/9. Morimando spent all of last season at High-A Carolina and his performance to this point is almost exactly on pace with last season when he had a 3.73 ERA and 6.8 K/9; however, the one big difference is the improvement in his strike throwing ability and limiting walks (5.1 BB/9 in 2013). Morimando may not have better numbers than Merritt, but he has the stuff and power to it which makes him so much more intriguing and thus higher rated as a prospect. If he can continue to harness his command and make strides with the improvement in his velocity and breaking ball, the Indians may really have something here.
↑ Louis Head (RHP): 15 G, 2.45 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9, 15.2 K/9. There are few legit bullpen prospects in the lower levels of the Indians system – or any system for that matter – but Head is at the top of the class when it comes to bullpen prospects below Double-A for the Indians. He has always been an interesting arm to keep an eye on who did a good job of throwing strikes and putting up consistent outings, but the quality of his stuff has really improved this season as he is up a few MPH with his fastball and touching 97 MPH and as a result racking up a ton of strikeouts. His showing to date is one of the best developments in the lower levels of the system this year and he has solidified himself as one of the Indians top bullpen prospects.
Lake County
→ Paul Hendrix (SS): 40 G, .333/.435/.553, 6 HR, 20 RBI, 24 BB, 50 K. Hendrix came into the season as more of an organizational guy and unranked in the Top 100, but has certainly at least solidified himself as someone who will be in the Top 100 next season. He is still more of a fringe prospect who projects as a utility player in the upper levels or big leagues, but there is no denying what he has shown this month is exceptional and that he has really performed well at Lake County. A .220 ISO and 14.3% walk rate is really nice from a middle infielder. On the other hand, a 29.8% strikeout rate and .477 BABIP are warning signs of trouble to come, and he is 22 years old and an advanced college player in Low-A, so the performance is taken with a grain of salt. It would be nice to see him bumped up to High-A Carolina to play every day so we can get a much better idea of how real his performance is this season.
↔ Eric Haase (C): .242/.336/.563, 10 HR, 18 RBI, 16 BB, 41 K. Haase has always been a prospect with considerable upside because of his athleticism, ability to catch and the promise with his bat. He continues to make strides with his receiving and is getting more consistent with his throwing, and he has more or less maintained his approach at the plate where he is walking about 10% of the time which is good. The strikeouts are still a concern, but what is really encouraging is the power he has shown this season as 18 of his 31 hits have gone for extra bases giving him an awesome .320 ISO. The batting average may be low but he walks a good amount and he is waiting for pitches he can drive and is clobbering them, a sign of a hitter who is improving right before our eyes.
→ Adam Plutko (RHP): 10 GS, 3.93 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9, 11.3 K/9. Plutko has been impressive at Low-A Lake County and proven to be the advanced college pitcher he was said to be coming out of the draft last year. He has been dominant striking out 30.3% of all batters and walking just 5.5% of them, and his .348 BABIP is right in line with league averages and shows he has not been lucky and that any kind of regression should be coming. He is just flat out performing. The Indians say that they did not start him in High-A because they did not want his first pro experience to come there, but with two months in the books at Lake County it is about time to move him up and challenge him at a higher level because that is simply not happening at Lake County.
↑ Robbie Aviles (RHP): 10 G, 1.45 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9, 5.6 K/9. Aviles’ performance so far this season is one that is both interesting and puzzling at the same time. It is interesting because he is finally putting up numbers that were expected of him as a former potential first or second round draft pick, but it is puzzling because even with the strong performance he still only has a 5.6 K/9 and is not blowing hitters away. That said, it is important to remember he is a sinkerballer who pitches to contact, so strikeouts are not as big a deal as they would be for another pitcher. And even so, he is striking out almost two more batters per nine innings this season. What is most encouraging is the significant dip in his walk rate, his improved command, his ability to better generate weak contact early in counts, and his offspeed stuff finally coming around. He is repeating at Low-A, so hopefully he gets a chance to go to Carolina soon to prove himself and continue his development there.
Follow Tony and the Indians Baseball Insider on Twitter @TonyIBI. Also, his new book the 2014 Cleveland Indians Baseball Insider which profiles the Indians' Top 100 Prospects and more is available for sale.
