Cleveland Sports Forum

I guess that done trading. How many 1st and 2nd round picks do they now own for each of the next 3 drafts?
Who if any among the remaining players is considered part of the future core beyond Sexton Osman and Zizic? Do Nance and Clarkson stay with us or get dealt too?

Time to pronounce final judgement on the Wiggins/Love trade....

If you're looking for an uncomfortable, potentially soul-straining hypothetical to forfeit sleep over, here's a suggestion to munch on: Imagine where the Timberwolves' stable of youngsters would rank if Andrew Wiggins were even close to a replacement-level player.

Don't twist his scoring average into something it's not. Wiggins is one of the league's most inefficient players. Out of the 73 players putting up at least 15 shots per 36 minutes, his effective field-goal percentage ranks 72nd, sandwiching him in between rookies Collin Sexton (71st) and Kevin Knox (73rd).

Collin Sexton Is No Longer Historically Bad. He May Even Be Good.
By Chris Herring


Rookie Collin Sexton has become more efficient in his shot selection since the All-Star break. JASON MILLER / GETTY IMAGES

CLEVELAND — It was less than a month into the season when a fairly harsh criticism found its way into the local media: Cavs’ veterans were quoted anonymously by a beat writer, saying the team’s first-round draft pick, point guard Collin Sexton, didn’t “know how to play.”

Of course that concern was just one of many problems for Cleveland at the time, as the team was trying to compete after losing the best player in the world. The Cavs opened the season 0-6 and swiftly fired coach Tyronn Lue. Kevin Love sustained a toe injury a week into the campaign and would miss the next three-plus months rehabbing after surgery.

When those issues were either accepted or pushed to the sidelines, Sexton’s struggles became front and center. And merely calling them “struggles” would be putting it lightly. By one metric, Box Plus-Minus, the 20-year-old Sexton was posting the worst season in modern NBA history1 as recently as March 5.

But that was then, and this is … three weeks later. And now Sexton somehow looks like a completely different player from the one he was before the All-Star break, not only better and far more efficient but also wired differently in terms of where he will and won’t shoot from.

That ability to know when and where to pull the trigger was a factor in his teammates’ opinion of his game. Sexton said as much when asked what prompted the seemingly overnight shift in his play. “They scream and yell at me for pump-faking, taking the one dribble and shooting a midrange [jumper],” said Sexton, who’s taken 128 contested two-point jumpers, hitting just 34 percent.

Whether or not that peer pressure was the catalyst for change, the difference has been stark as of late. Sexton 1.0 (before the All-Star break) was taking 39 percent of his attempts from midrange — a far higher share than that of the San Antonio Spurs as a team, which takes an NBA-high 28 percent of its shots from that range. Just 48 percent of Sexton’s shots before the break fit the Moreyball definition, coming either in the restricted area or from behind the arc.

Sexton 2.0 has been a completely different player. Since mid-February, more than 70 percent of Sexton’s shots have been from Moreyball areas — shot selection that resembles the analytics-friendly Atlanta Hawks.


What’s more, the shots are now falling for Sexton, who had an effective field goal percentage of just 44 through the end of January2, but now is closer to a 54 percent effective field goal mark since then. And of the 56 players attempting at least five three-pointers a game3 since the break, Sexton ranks third in the NBA, at 44.8 percent from the arc. He recently pieced together an impressive streak of seven consecutive games in which he scored 23 points or more, becoming the first rookie since Tim Duncan, in 1998, to do so. And it’s clearly not a coincidence the team has played its best basketball of the season over the past two months, as Sexton’s play has vastly improved and Love has rejoined the lineup.

“Sometimes I try to get a rise out of him, and will tell him, ‘Collin, that was great — you made the play, you got it back, and got into the lane to get your shot,’ and he’ll just kind of sit there and say, ‘That’s what I’m supposed to do,’ ” Love told me — the sort of encouragement that marks a night-and-day shift from the yelling or anonymous criticisms thrown the rookie’s way earlier in the season. “He’s been a lot more vocal lately … and I think it’s helped his confidence.”

The sweet shooting has been easiest to notice. But that part of Sexton’s game was never really the one in question. Whereas many young players struggle early on to find the basket, Sexton has been above average from deep for the majority of the year. If anything, his fledgling advanced metrics were weighed down by a number of factors that pointed to a lack of balance.

Two clear areas of weakness stand out. He’s often a mess on defense and allows an NBA-worst4 1.07 points per possession when guarding pick-and-roll ball-handlers, according to data from Second Spectrum. (Yes, at 6-2 and 190 pounds, he’s small. But it’s sometimes a lack of on-court IQ as well. At 1.2 points per possession, Sexton also surrenders more points per play5 when he dives under screens than any other NBA guard — a sign that he’s not identifying which players he can’t leave open yet.)

Because of that, Cleveland’s league-worst defense allows a whopping 117 points per 100 possessions when Sexton is on the floor, up from a far more respectable 109.86 when he’s off, according to NBA Advanced Stats.

The other shortcoming is Sexton’s lack of table-setting ability. Many remember the game in 2017, when Sexton’s Alabama team was forced to play 3-on-5 for the final 11 minutes because of multiple ejections stemming from a brawl with Minnesota. Sexton dropped 40 and the Crimson Tide came up just short in a thrilling comeback bid, outscoring the Gophers, 30-22, with a two-man disadvantage. During that contest, Sexton showed how much he could score when forced to score. But sometimes he plays that way even when he has four other teammates on the court.

Aside from sometimes pulling the trigger too early or in heavily contested situations, Sexton also fails to consistently set up fellow Cavs compared to how often he calls his own number. In fact, you have to go back a full 30 years to find the last time a rookie point guard7 with a usage rate of 25 percent or higher who had an assist percentage worse than Sexton’s 15 percent mark this season, according to Basketball-Reference.com’s Play Index8.

All of which could raise an interesting question for Cleveland’s front office in the near future: Is Sexton a true point guard, or does it make sense to use him as more a shooting guard and pair him with a Jrue Holiday-type, who can distribute and defend big lead guards more dependably?

Given how much his game has grown in the last two months alone, it’s probably too soon to tell.

But whatever Sexton’s shortcomings are, working through them probably feels like far less of a challenge when he can hang his hat on real, tangible progress from these past two months. And it certainly beats potentially going down as having had the worst season in modern NBA history.

progress in some areas of his game could suggest he is willing to keep working and keep learning. He's only 19 yet. At worst I guess he'll be an equivalent of what Jordan Clarkson delivers offensively off the bench.

It is amazing how fans and media expect a 19 year old kid to come into the NBA and know everything from day one. Only happens with the future Hall of Fame players. Sexton is going to be a very good to superstar NBA player in the mold of Lillard or others in about year 3 with some big time highlights in year 2. All you can ask for.

Could even flourish quicker if the Cavs are lucky enough to get Williamson, Barrett, Morant or dare I say Koby White in the draft. There is not another player on this roster other than Love that is an offensive player the other team is concerned with. Most teams would love to have Clarkson shoot all of the time. Cavs are set up great with role players. Now they need a couple of stars. Sexton could fill one of those roles.

Cleveland Cavaliers: Talking to myself about the future, how does it look? – Terry Pluto

Updated 12:23 PM; Today 8:12 AM

By Terry Pluto, The Plain Dealer

CLEVELAND, Ohio – Watching the Cavaliers lately, I end up talking to myself – but it’s not all bad.

QUESTION: Don’t try to tell me that you’re upbeat about this team.

ANSWER: Is that a question?

Q: Come on, this team stinks. Don’t you look at the standings?

A: Once Kevin Love was injured after four games and needed foot surgery, the plan of trying to go to the playoffs this season ended. Veterans were traded. Young players were tossed on the court. The Koby Altman front office went into overdrive when it came to scouting.


Q: So they were tanking?

A: Not in the beginning. And if they were fully dedicated to having the NBA’s worst record, they never would have brought back Love late in the season.

Q: The losing came naturally?

A: Exactly. And they probably will end up with one of the NBA’s three worst records. They were 19-57 heading into the weekend. The others are New York (14-61) and Phoenix (17-59). The bottom three teams have the same 14 percent to win the top pick. The fourth worst team is at 12.5 percent.

Yes, the Cavs could pair Murray State's Ja Morant with Collin Sexton. (AP Photo/Timothy D. Easley)
AP

Yes, the Cavs could pair Murray State's Ja Morant with Collin Sexton. (AP Photo/Timothy D. Easley)

Q: Maybe Zion Williamson can save them, right?

A: R.J. Barrett will be a terrific pro. Murray State’s Ja Morant is a fascinating prospect.

Q: Wait a minute, Morant is the point guard. Doesn’t that get in the way of Collin Sexton?

A: The Cavs need good players, period. Morant is more of a natural point guard than Sexton, averaging 10 assists per game for the Racers.

Q: So Sexton is not a point guard?

A: Not in the classic sense. He’s a scoring guard. And at the age of 20, he’s still figuring out the NBA. In the meantime, he’s averaging 21 points, shooting .488 from the field, .447 on 3-pointers since the All-Star break.


Q: Isn’t he too small for a shooting guard?

A: Sexton came into the league as a poor outside shooter. He has relentlessly worked at it, 300-to-500 shots after many practices. He takes 100-200 after some games. His 3-point shot is becoming reliable, he’s a .414 for the season.

Q: But you’re missing the point, he’s not a good pass-first point guard.

A: You’re missing the point. The Cavs need more good players. Suppose they end up picking third. Williamson and Barrett are gone. Morant is there – take the kid from Murray State. Some scouts rate Morant over Barrett.

Q: So you are high on Sexton?

A: I recently had a casual conversation with a Cavs official who told me about Sexton evolving into a “Moneyball player.” That means he shoots 3-pointers, or drives to the rim. The Cavs wanted him to stay away from a lot of “mid-range” jumpers. Then I found a story on FiveThirtyEight that outlines the changes Sexton has made in his shot selection.


Q: What would have happened if Love had stayed healthy?


A: Perhaps the Cavs would be close to the playoffs. Since he returned, the Cavs are 7-10 in games he’s played. He’s averaging 17.6 and 11.2 rebounds and he was under minutes restrictions for some games this season. He’s a good player, and he makes others such as Sexton better.

Q: So they have Love and Sexton and...

A: Larry Nance Jr. has made major progress. The 6-foot-9 forward leads the Cavs in assists (3.1) and steals (1.5). He is a powerful rebounder. He is developing a 3-point shot (.349). He is the most all-around player on the team – so much more than his 9.3 scoring and 7.8 rebounding averages.

Q: What do you think of Jordan Clarkson?

A: He and Sexton are similar. Both are guards who look to score. Both are absolutely relentless in terms of effort. Neither are good defenders. But putting the ball in the basket means a lot in this game. Clarkson (16.9 points) is a force off the bench.

Q: Why are you making it sound like this team is heading to the playoffs next season?

A: Not sure that will happen. But they are not that far away, assuming Love can play at least 60 games. They have Tristan Thompson, Love and Nance as big men.

Q: What about Ante Zizic?

A: He’s 6-foot-11. He’s 22. He averaging 7.4 points and 5.4 rebounds in 18 minutes a game since the All-Star break. He could be someone the Cavs trade on draft day. Or perhaps someone who becomes important if they deal Thompson. He can really improve as a player over the next few years.


Q: What happened to Delly?

A: Matthew Dellavedova had what I was told was a major concussion. He’s had at least one other concussion in the NBA. Not sure how many playing in Australia. The Cavs are being careful with him. He may not play the rest of the season.

Q: Do you like Brandon Knight?

A: I loved him in the 2011 draft and early in his NBA career. It’s a shame he had a monster knee injury. He’s coming back now and has had some nice moments playing with Sexton in the same backcourt. Dellavedova and Knight give the Cavs two experienced point guards for next season. Both are under contract for one more year.

Q: Won’t they trade some guys?

A: Heading into the 2019-20 season, the following key veterans are on the final season of their contracts: Thompson, Dellavedova, Knight, Clarkson and, yes – J.R. Smith. He is still at home, but his contract could have value for a team with salary cap issues. So all have “expiring contracts,” making them attractive to some teams.


Q: Why are you upbeat about the Cavs?

A: They have Nance, Sexton, Love and Clarkson as core players. They have their own first-round pick and Houston’s first-round pick. They can possibly move Love in a huge deal, but I don’t see that coming. I’m not quite as high on Cedi Osman as some in the Cavs organization, but the small forward definitely is a rotation player off the bench. In other words, there is young talent and there are draft picks – a foundation does exist to improve quickly.

From Chris Fedor ...

The JR Smith contract is the most valuable trade chip the Cavs possess. It’s also one of the better ones around the NBA. And it’s the only contract of its kind. That’s probably why The Ringer’s Bill Simmons called it the “secret weapon of July free agency” on a recent podcast.

It can be complicated and I’ve asked numerous sources to explain it to me in an understandable way. So let me do my best.

Smith’s deal was signed in 2016, under the old Collective Bargaining Agreement. That was before the CBA changed the rules regarding how partially guaranteed contracts are handled in trades, especially when it comes to salary-matching purposes. Even though the CBA has changed, Smith’s contract was grandfathered in, which allows the Cavs to take back a high-priced salary (more than $15 million) while the other team is only on the hook for $3.8 million. Other deals signed after 2016 would only work for the guaranteed amount on the contract when it comes to matching salaries -- not nearly as appealing in trades.

If the mercurial shooting guard, who has been exiled from Cleveland since November, gets waived by the end of June, a team could either leave the $3.8 million on its cap for the 2019-20 season or stretch it, spreading the guaranteed money across three years at a rate of $1.29 million. Either way, it’s no longer a contract that’s detrimental. Quite the opposite. His contract has plenty of appeal to cap-strapped teams looking to shed salary in the final days before free agency.

Executive Brock Aller has been tasked with compiling a list of teams that make sense for a Smith deal. He had pegged the New York Knicks prior to their salary-dump move with Dallas involving Tim Hardaway Jr. and Courtney Lee. But there are still plenty of others.

Let’s say hypothetically the Miami Heat want to be involved in 2019 free agency. As of now, the Heat salary cap for the 2019-20 season is around $137 million -- if Goran Dragic exercises his $19.2 million player option.

For starters, the Heat could offer James Johnson, who is set to make $15.1 million next season and has a player option for $15.7 million the following year, along with a future first-round pick as a sweetener. This way, the Cavs get another draft pick, which they continue to seek for their lengthy rebuild. Miami gets financial flexibility, which it doesn’t currently have. If not Johnson specifically, Ryan Anderson’s lucrative deal fits the same parameters.

Charlotte is another team that fits. In an effort to re-sign Kemba Walker and give him more of a win-now supporting cast, the Hornets could send Bismack Biyombo and the $17 million he will be owed in 2019-20, along with either a first-round pick or one of their ascending youngsters (Miles Bridges? Malik Monk? Devonte Graham?) for Smith. That type of deal would allow Charlotte to shed a bunch of salary.

Maybe Washington’s new general manager is desperate to move Ian Mahinmi’s gross $16 million on the books for next season.

Perhaps the Celtics have buyer’s remorse with Gordon Hayward, allowing the Cavs to revive Hayward as a high-priced All-Star while the Celtics go hunting for a different second option alongside Kyrie Irving. Or Boston wants to reset its books if Irving bolts in free agency. As it stands, the Celtics are entering next season with a little more than $100 million in payroll -- provided Al Horford and Aron Baynes opt-in to their deals.

Of course, this hypothetical Boston-Cleveland swap would have to be a bigger move, probably involving the expiring deals of John Henson or Jordan Clarkson.

Think about the Cavs’ three-way trade with Houston and Sacramento a few months back. The Rockets wanted so badly to move off Brandon Knight’s bulky deal that they included a 2019 first-round pick as incentive for what amounted to an expiring contract.

Two years ago, the frantic Lakers shipped D'Angelo Russell to Brooklyn in a salary dump involving Timofey Mozgov. It gave the Lakers room to pursue LeBron James in 2018 free agency. The Nets got Russell, the 2015 second-overall pick, for taking on Mozgov's horrendous contract.

Cleveland is in the same position Brooklyn once was -- ready to eat bad contracts for young talent and/or draft picks. Chairman Dan Gilbert gave the front office freedom to take on bad money already this season (Knight, Matthew Dellavedova and Henson) and there's no reason to think he wouldn't do it again.

Wow, interesting. Thanks HB

They changed draft lottery this year. The 3 worst teams all have a 14% chance at getting first pick.

We land a good youngster and get something from JR’s contract we might have a decent team next year. At least one worth watching. Might have to re-up my League Pass.

4 future stars in this draft. Zion, RJ, Morant and Koby White.

So what do guys you know basketball think about Sexton as his rookie season? He certainly seems to have come a long way, although I read that his defense is very bad.

He is looking better and better. He has worked hard on his shot. So the mid rangers he was taking earlier this year are now 3 point shots.

If we miss out on Zion we could go either way with Morant or Barrett. (In that order, and I hope we don’t fall out of top 3) I believe he has improved his shot so much he could play the 1 or the 2.

Anyone else on the current team have a significant role in the future? Osman doesn't seem to be doing as well as early on. Clarkson appears a very good 2nd team guard. Zizic? Nance? Chriss? Nwaba?

Just saw that Sexton is only 3rd rookie in history to average 16 points a game, shoot 40% from 3 land, and 80% from free throw line. Larry Bird and Steph Curry the other two.

Larry Nance Jr would be the other player. Jury still out on Cedi but there are a few scouts that really like him.