Stark: What we learned in May — 5 teams that could be active at the trade deadline, a whole sport of Nolan Ryans and more
Jayson Stark Jun 2, 2021 220
It’s time to wave adios to May, a month we’ll always remember. For four no-hitters. For Javy Báez and his Flying Wallendas base running act. For an injured list that grew faster than Jack Black in “Gulliver’s Travels.”
But it’s time now to peer beneath the surface at where it’s all leading. And that’s where we come in — with another spectacular edition of What We Learned in May.
1. We have a whole sport of Nolan Ryans!
When Nolan Ryan retired in 1993, he was viewed — for good reason — as the most unhittable pitcher who ever lived. Now here we are, 28 years later, and we’re approaching a time when the average pitcher in this sport is Nolan Ryan. Take a look.
Ryan career K%: 25.3
MLB K% thru May: 24.2
Ryan career K/9 IP: 9.55
MLB K/9 IP thru May: 9.24
All right, I’ll admit I honed in just on strikeout rate. Please don’t flood me with all those other Nolan Ryan numbers. I’m well-schooled on all the other aspects of his unhittability. But focusing on Ryan’s strikeout rate was actually the whole point!
Is that what we want? A sport in which all hitters are striking out, every day, as if they’re facing Nolan Ryan? I’m going to inch out on a limb here and say: No!
“Is Nolan Ryan in today’s game just your run-of-the-mill power arm?” one AL GM asked, tongue only slightly in cheek.
On one hand, he said, hitters have such a different hitting philosophy now, compared with Ryan’s era, that it’s terrifying to think of how many K’s a guy like Ryan would pile up now. But on the other …
“I’m not exaggerating,” the same GM said, “when I say that a lot of the stuff coming out of pitchers’ hands now is so good that I honestly don’t know if Nolan Ryan would separate himself from everyone else the same way now that he did then.”
That’s an incredible thought. But spend 10 minutes some day watching Pitching Ninja videos and tell me he’s wrong.
2. At least May was better than April
Before one NL GM talked to me for this column, he spent time digging in on April-versus-May numbers over the last few years. So first off, he gets an “A” on his homework. But also: He actually felt relieved, when he was finished, that offensive numbers always seem to pick up after April. And that was true again this year.
APRIL SPLITS: .232/.309/.389/.698; .283 BABIP, 24.4 K%
MAY SPLITS: .239/.315/.397/.712; .292 BABIP, 24.0 K%
But here’s a trick question for you: Is that the good news or the bad news?
The beer-mug-half-full view is that, as we reported in last month’s What We Learned column, .232 would be the worst sportwide batting average — by far — in baseball history, so at least we’ve edged out of that territory. But now here’s the beer-mug-half-empty view: .239 would still be tied for the second-worst.
Lowest league average, all-time
1968
.237
1888
.239
(Source: baseball-reference.com)
Those, of course, are full-season averages. But we regret to report that even if we just look at May numbers, there’s nothing to feel all warm and fuzzy about.
Lowest May average, live-ball era
1968
.229
1966
.236
1972
.237
2021
.239
(Source: baseball-reference.com)
So this was still the lowest May batting average in nearly a half-century — not to mention the second-lowest since baseball lowered the mound after pitchers took captivity of the sport in 1968. But now let’s add in strikeout rate, and you’ll see how different these times are than those times — and not for the better.
May 1968
.229
6.06
May 1966
.236
5.93
May 1972
.237
5.54
May 2021
.239
9.17*
(*highest May K ratio ever)
If there is any solace in any of these numbers, it’s that at least the May strikeout rate wasn’t quite as messy as the April whiff rate (9.30 per nine innings). And maybe it’s all the pitchers’ faults in more ways than one.
As MLB.com’s Mike Petriello wrote last week, if you subtract the atrocious hitting we’ve seen from pitchers so far, the overall strikeout percentage has actually leveled off, after climbing in the previous 15 seasons in a row. So let’s cling to that, OK?
“It’s just a small source of hope,” said one AL exec. “I’m just hopeful we’re going to reach a tipping point where things start to balance out.”
3. Lights, cameras — but where’s the action?
Let’s take a quick survey. Who out there would like to see less action in your average baseball game? Raise your hands. Beautiful. The poll results are in:
Want less action: 0.0%
Want more action: 100.0%
That’s an unofficial count, but close enough! So that’s why it’s so concerning that it’s the “action” categories that keep on trending downward. Take a look at these four items on the old stat sheet, about one-third of the way through another season.
GIDP
.68
1968
SB
.46
1971
DOUBLES
1.53
1989
SINGLES
4.98
Ever
Now here’s a little more context. The only time in recorded history when hitters grounded into this few double plays was 1968, a year when pretty much nobody was on base. … The rate of stolen bases is at a 50-year low, but the rate of stolen-base attempts is now the lowest since 1964. … We’re on pace for over 1,100 fewer doubles just since the last full season, in 2019. … And the average team is no longer even managing to hit five singles per game, for the first time in history. That means that by year’s end, we’ll have seen more than 4,000 singles disappear just over the last decade.
“This doesn’t paint a real rosy picture of where we’re going,” said one NL exec. “But that’s the reason all the experimental rules in the minor leagues are so interesting and worth monitoring. They’re all getting at the same thing: The best version of the game is a version with more balls in play and more action.”
4. The all-hurt team might beat the All-Star team!
Here’s my All-Injured Team, made up solely of players who A) got hurt since Opening Day and B) were on the injured list as of June 1. This team can play!
1B: Joey Votto
2B: Jeff McNeil
SS: Trevor Story
3B: Mike Moustakas
CF: Mike Trout
RF: Bryce Harper
LF: Michael Brantley
C: Travis d’Arnaud
DH: Franmil Reyes
Pitchers: Corey Kluber, Zach Plesac, Kenta Maeda, Lance McCullers Jr., Danny Duffy, Dustin May, Zac Gallen, Marco Gonzales, Michael Kopech, Huascar Ynoa, Drew Pomeranz, Josh Staumont, Dellin Betances, Darren O’Day (and lots more)
Bench: Corey Seager, George Springer, Byron Buxton, Luis Robert, Didi Gregorius, Brandon Belt, Luke Voit, Aaron Hicks, Wilson Ramos (and many, many more)
“I can’t remember a year where we’ve had anything like this,” said one NL exec who has been in the game more than 30 years.
So is he right? I checked with Derek Rhoads, who does fantastic work charting injuries for Baseball Prospectus. His data was startling:
• As of May 31, there were 244 players on the injured list across the sport, an average of more than eight per team. There wasn’t a single day all last season when that many players were on the IL at once.
• Those 244 players on the IL represent a scary 29-percent spike if you just compare that with the 61-day mark of the last full season, in 2019.
• But measured another way, if you total up all IL placements, 103 more players wound up on the IL (non-COVID division) at some point in the first 61 days this season (385) than in 2019 (282). That’s up more than 30 percent.
• And if you want to include the COVID-related IL, it’s a jump of more than 50 percent compared with the first 61 days of 2019 (without even including vaccination-related stints).
So what’s up with that? In part, it’s because teams use the 10-day injured list so much more aggressively than the old 15-day IL. In part, it’s also because, coming off the uncharted territory of a 60-game season, teams are clearly being more proactive to protect players’ long-term health. So injured list activity isn’t a 100 percent barometer of injuries, per se. Nevertheless, the more you dig into this data, the more shocking it gets:
• The number of pitchers who made IL visits in the first two months was up 47 percent compared with 2019.
• Just elbow injuries alone were up 28 percent.
• And dreaded soft-tissue injuries, always an early season problem area, exploded into record territory. Hamstring issues almost tripled. Oblique injuries nearly doubled. And groin-strain IL placements were up an incredible 700 percent (from two to 16).
In truth, we don’t have quite enough clear-cut data to connect every dot between the weirdness of that 60-game season last year and the IL population boom this year. But at this point, how is it even possible to conclude this is just some fluky coincidence?
“Sometimes,” said one AL exec, “the most obvious thing is what’s actually causing that thing you’re seeing. … When you think, ‘What’s the one huge difference between this year and last year?’ it’s just obvious. You’ve got multiple teams with double-digit IL placements — and that’s just in the big leagues. The minor-league injured lists are even worse.”
But this is more than merely a bar graph come to life. This is being reflected in what you watch on the field every day in the major leagues.
“The upshot is that who ends up playing in the big leagues, because of this, is so different from what we’re used to,” the same exec said. “We’re not just talking anymore about the second-line layer of talent. In some cases, we’re down to four- and fifth-layer talent.”
5. Real fans haven’t helped!
Speaking for all of us who are big fans of humans, it’s been truly uplifting to evict all those cardboard cutouts from our favorite ballparks and replace them with real people. Just don’t equate “uplifting” with “inspirational.” Somehow or other, home teams mysteriously played better last year — with no fans — than they’re playing with the sounds of human accompaniment this year.
HOME TEAM WINNING PCT
2020: .557
2021: .533
So what the heck is that all about? Excellent question. On one hand, this would be a similar home-team win percentage to what we saw in 2019 (.529) and 2018 (.528). On the other hand, those seasons are really the outliers — because if this keeps up, 2021 would land in a tie for the 20th-lowest home winning percentage of the expansion era, which takes in the last six decades.
That 24-point drop is also a big, big number. It would be tied (with 1978-79) for the second-largest decline in home win percentage in the last 50 years. Only 2010-11 (a plummet from .559 to .526) tops it.
Nevertheless, is this one time we’re allowed to say it’s too early to get worked up, considering that most teams aren’t at full attendance yet? Uh, let’s go with that.
“I don’t really know how to explain it,” said one AL exec. “I’d put this in the category of things to monitor and see what happens as fans fill the park and we get deeper into the season.”
6. The first team out of the deadline starting blocks could be … the Diamondbacks!
I’ve never wanted to be That Guy, waiting for a couple of months of baseball to go by so we can all start focusing on the trading deadline. But once Memorial Day becomes a past-tense event, front offices start thinking that way. So we’ve been officially sucked in. Here are five teams that could get our trade juices flowing:
DIAMONDBACKS — They just had the worst May record (5-24) of any team in baseball, and they’re not catching the Padres/Dodgers/Giants. So other clubs are already forecasting that they could get super aggressive in a hurry. A couple of hot names to keep an eye on: Eduardo Escobar and David Peralta.
“Escobar,” said one NL exec, “is a name that I think is going to draw crazy interest.”
TWINS — The Twins emerged from May at 22-31 — 10 1/2 games out of first place, seven games out in the wild-card scramble. And you know how many AL teams in the wild-card era have started 22-31 or worse and made the playoffs? That would be zero. So unless they run off a bunch of wins ASAP, the Twins have all the makings of a team that’s not likely to wait around to sell, with Nelson Cruz at the top of quite a few AL shopping lists.
“They’d have to play at a 95-win pace to put themselves in contention,” said one exec. “That’s a team that thinks very logically. So it seems logical that they’ll be a team that jumps in and sells.”
NATIONALS — But then there are the Nationals, the poster boys of Wait and See mode. They’re the only team in history to play sub-.400 baseball (19-31 in 2019) over the first 50 games of any season and then charge back to win a World Series. So even at 21-29 this year, GM Mike Rizzo is a long way from kicking off a closeout sale. But if he ever does, rival execs see him as far more likely to move players like Daniel Hudson and Kyle Schwarber than Max Scherzer, even though Scherzer’s free-agent countdown has begun.
“What about their history says they’re going to trade Max Scherzer?” asked one exec. “I just see them looking at the possible return on a rental player, which won’t be franchise-changing, even for Scherzer, and saying, ‘Why would we do that?’”
ROCKIES — The Trevor Story Watch is already on, and currently awaiting Story’s return from right elbow inflammation. But even before that injury, the Rockies were telling teams they weren’t ready to move, despite the 2021 reality that the value of all rent-a-players drops every day.
“Every year, the rental prices lessen,” said an AL exec. “It’s just too hard for any player you trade for to swing a team’s chances in a couple of months. So we’d pay more for a rental now than at the end of July. And that’s how most teams think. That’s why, if he was on the Rays, they’d have traded him last winter. Or maybe the winter before. Or the winter before that!”
RAYS — Speaking of the Rays, they obviously won’t be a traditional seller. But teams looking for infielders are targeting them anyway. And why is that? Because they have two of the best middle-infield prospects on earth — in Wander Franco and Vidal Bruján — and no logical position to play either of them.
They’ve already exported Willy Adames in one shocker of a deal. So to make room for Franco and/or Bruján, “I could see that leading to more major-leaguer-for-major-leaguer type swaps (like the Adames trade),” said one AL exec who is eyeing this closely.
7. Trading season won’t wait for July
One more thing on the deadline. The amateur draft used to be a reason to delay those deadline deals. Now it’s a reason to get them done ASAP.
OK, why would that be? Because the draft used to come around in June. But now MLB has booted it back to All-Star week in mid-July. And that means GMs will have more time to kick around deals this month than they will in July. So gentlemen and gentlewomen, start your data-roaming engines!
“The draft really throws a wrench into how people will allocate their time in July,” said one GM. “So that’s one reason you don’t want to wait around on a deal. In July, your attention will be split more than usual.”
8. Jacob deGrom is the Shohei Ohtani of the Big Apple!
Moments after Mets domination machine Jacob deGrom drove in another run Monday night, I got this tweet from an undercover tweeter known as “Pig Pen.”
Well, since he asked …
OHTANI (as a pitcher): .364/.417/.727 HR, 3 RBIs, .1.144 OPS
deGROM: .450/.450/.500 no HR, 3 RBIs, .950 OPS
So I don’t know about you, but I’m definitely all for deGrom DH-ing when he isn’t throwing 15-strikeout two-hitters. I’m guessing the Mets are not for that, however. Which means we’ll just have to amuse ourselves by dreaming about what might have been — and digging in on stuff like this:
deGrom the hitter: .450 AVG, .500 SLG
deGrom the pitcher: .129 AVG, .246 SLG
Awesome note from MLB.com’s Andrew Simon: If the Mets did make deGrom a full-time hitter, he could go 0 for his next 54 and still have a higher batting average than the hitters he’s faced this year! So there’s that. But also this:
deGrom the hitter: 9 hits this season
deGrom the pitcher: 7 runs allowed this season
What’s the closest any Cy Young Award-winning starter has come to getting more hits as a hitter than runs allowed as a pitcher the year he won? I had to know! And that answer is … not very! Greg Maddux in 1995 was the closest: 11 hits at the dish, 28 runs allowed during the season. Would you put this past deGrom in 2021? Why would you?
But deGrom could also take a shot at this:
Cy Youngs who batted .400: None!
Cy Youngs who batted .300: Just Bob Gibson (.303) in 1970!
So nobody loves Ohtani more than I do. But one thing I learned in May is: Maybe I’ve been obsessing over the wrong two-way sensation!
9. Pay attention to these dudes!
Here’s how this section works. I can’t list every player in baseball who had a great month, who is having a breakout season, who won a Player of the Week award once or who happens to be your favorite player. These are just some guys I think are fun, or on the road to something special. All complaints about players I “forgot” or “snubbed” or “obviously hate” will be rejected by the What We Learned authorities. Got it? Now let’s go.
RONALD ACUÑA JR. — How many leadoff men in modern history have ever led their league in home runs? That would be none. Where would you find the sensational Ronald Acuña Jr. in the NL home run standings at the end of May? That would be first — where he was tied with Fernando Tatis Jr., with 16.
Meanwhile, no player has ever hit 40 home runs, all of them out of the leadoff hole, in any season. Acuña is on pace to hit 51.
So could he be the first leadoff force of nature to win a home run title? Could he be the first to hit 40 — or even 50? Why would you bet against this guy doing anything?
“He’s got that thing all the great home run hitters had,” said one NL exec. “I’m talking (Willie) Mays, (Henry) Aaron, all of them. And that’s powerful wrists. When he hits it, it’s a lightning bolt.”
YASMANI GRANDAL — I really do need to write a whole column one of these days about the White Sox catcher’s incomprehensible season. But for now, let’s just focus on this: This man arrived at June leading his league in walks (42) — and his batting average was .131!
I’m not prepared to say this is not a thing that can happen. I’m just here to say this is not a thing that has ever happened. Or ever come close to happening.
The lowest batting average ever, by a guy who led his league in walks, was .204, by the legendary Adam Dunn in 2012. He beats Grandal’s average by 73 points! The last walk champ with more walks than hits was Jack Clark in 1989. He had 22 more walks (132) than hits (110). Grandal is on pace to have 87 more walks than hits (126-39).
“I wonder what the hell he’s telling the umpires back there,” quipped one exec, “if he’s working a deal to take them to dinner or something.”
ADOLIS GARCÍA — You know how many players in baseball hit more home runs than Adolis García in May (11)? Right you are. That answer is none. And guess which rookie emerged from May tied for the AL lead in homers, with 16? Right you are again. Adolis García.
That’s how a guy turns himself into the early favorite for Rookie of the Year. But you know how a guy normally doesn’t turn himself into an early favorite for Rookie of the Year? When he gets designated for assignment — in that same calendar year!
Yes, the Rangers actually did that, less than four months ago, on Feb. 10. And every team in baseball let García slide through waivers. He then got invited to the Rangers’ big-league camp, made a big impression, and the rest is history.
If you’re thinking nobody in history could possibly have won a Rookie of the Year award after being DFA’d that same year, well, we can’t answer that one. But our friends from STATS Perform did check as far back as reliable transaction data exists — and reported that nobody in the 21st century has ever done that. Because of course they haven’t!
10. Keep an eye on these teams!
THE ROCKIES — Are the Rockies the worst road team ever? They have a shot at it. They’re 4-22 on the road this season. Four and twenty-two! That’s a .154 winning percentage. We’ve never seen anything like it.
• Post-1900 record holder: Pinky Whitney’s 1935 Boston Braves (13-65, .167)
• Worst in the expansion era: Sherten Apostel’s 2020 Rangers (6-24, .200, in that 60-game season).
• Worst in a 162-game season: Choo Choo Coleman’s 1963 Mets and Lasting Milledge’s 2010 Pirates (both 17-64, .210).
So yeah, I’m saying there’s a chance.
THE DODGERS — I’m not sure why we haven’t paid more attention to this, but the Dodgers’ collection of aces has a chance to go down as one of the most dominating rotations of all time, at least if you measure that this way:
• They could be the first rotation in the live-ball era with a sub-1.00 WHIP! Their WHIP through May: 0.92.
• They could be the first rotation ever with 1,000 more strikeouts than walks! Their pace through May: 1,068 K’s, 195 BBs.
• They could be the first rotation ever with a 5-to-1 K/BB ratio! That ratio was over 6-to-1 heading into San Francisco last weekend. It was still at 5.48 through May. Amazing.
THE MARINERS — The Mariners got no-hit twice in May. At home. Which was helpful if they were trying to submerge below the Mendoza line for the month (which they did, at .199). They weren’t, obviously. But what they’re also not trying to do is compile the lowest team batting average of modern times! Still, they’re on their way. They flipped the calendar to June with a .205 team average. Here’s where that would rank them in full seasons since 1900:
Mariners
2021
.205
Brewers
2021
.211
White Sox
1910
.211
Dodgers
1908
.213
Yankees
1968
.214
Now here’s what’s really astonishing about that leader board. The Mariners and Brewers of 2021 both appear on it — and they both had winning records through May! If we toss out the 60-game stats of last year, the lowest average of all time by any team with a winning record is .214, by that 1968 Yankees juggernaut. Once again, I’m saying there’s a chance.
THE RAYS — They can jettison two of their three elite starters over the winter. They can place 18 different players on the IL. They can trade their energizer shortstop in the middle of an 11-game winning streak. And for those Tampa Bay Rays, none of it matters. Nothing changes. They just keep on chugging. And keep on winning.
So for their latest, greatest impossible feat, here’s what they did in May: They entered the month with a losing record (13-14). They finished the month 15 games over .500 (35-20). And who does that?
Last team to start any calendar month with a losing record and finish that month at least 15 games north of .500? According to STATS, it was Huck Betts’ 1933 Boston Braves 48-49 through July, 22-6 that August).
So here’s one thing we learned for sure in May (again). The Rays are gonna Ray!
Re: Just Baseball: Major League teams OTHER THAN the Tribe
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