Re: Cleveland Cavaliers
Posted: Sat Oct 13, 2018 1:33 pm
Cavaliers Roster Analysis: Cap space, draft picks and 2019 free-agency outlook
By Danny Leroux Oct 11, 2018 6
The new season is almost upon us and that creates fascinating new storylines, debates and dynamics for all 30 NBA teams. Salary cap/CBA expert Danny Leroux is breaking down the key questions each franchise faces this season with an eye toward the intriguing 2019 offseason, including information on the Cavs’ cap space, free agents and outlook.
Cleveland will end up being a fascinating test case for the importance of LeBron James as they largely kept the rest of the team together after his departure. While eighth overall pick Collin Sexton will be an important part of the rotation and the team’s future, most of their other departures and additions will be more on the margins, especially after Rodney Hood decided to sign his $3.5 million qualifying offer to become an unrestricted free agent next summer.
In fact, general manager Kobe Altman’s biggest move by far was retaining a player rather than an addition when the team agreed to an extension with Kevin Love adding four years and $120 million to his contract. Love’s season will play a major part in determining where the Cavs fit in the Eastern Conference now and moving forward as the franchise defines itself in a new era. Cleveland is a rarity in 2019 as a team that could push to clear cap space but may benefit from holding off, depending on how their veterans fare this year and their place in the trade and free-agency markets next summer.
Projected Cap Space: None – $24 million
2019 Draft Picks: Own first if 1-10
Potential Free Agents: Larry Nance Jr. (Restricted), George Hill (Partial Guarantee), JR Smith (Partial Guarantee), Kyle Korver (Partial Guarantee), Rodney Hood (Unrestricted), David Nwaba (Restricted), Sam Dekker (Restricted), Channing Frye (Unrestricted)
Extension-Eligible Players: Larry Nance Jr., JR Smith, Tristan Thompson, Jordan Clarkson, Sam Dekker
2019 Power Index: Very limited other than the possibility of taking on salary in a few different ways. The current Collective Bargaining Agreement fixed the loophole that previously allowed teams to use lightly protected contracts to take on larger obligations, which would have been very useful for Cleveland in 2019-20 with George Hill, JR Smith and Kyle Korver all having partial guarantees for that season (Note/correction: While the new rules limit the traded salary calculations for Hill and Korver, Smith signed under the previous CBA so Cleveland can use that process for his contract). Even so, Cleveland can create usable cap space by letting go of their veterans even if they retain Larry Nance Jr. and/or Hood. The front office could use that $16-24 million to sign free agents, take on bad salary or some combination of the two. Alternatively, management could extract assets by moving then-expiring contracts like Tristan Thompson and Jordan Clarkson for longer deals since some teams will use next July to line up their 2020 cap space. At this point, the Cavs’ contract structure lends itself to the team making more of a splash in 2020 than 2019 after locking up Kevin Love but they have an underappreciated amount of flexibility that could prove useful if Altman is ready for a bigger overhaul sooner than expected.
1. Does this group prove they are worth keeping together?
One of the most fascinating decisions in the entire NBA this summer was Altman largely keeping the Cavs’ roster together even after James announced he was taking his talents to Los Angeles. Cleveland has a collection of talented players, but the group makes substantially more sense with an offensive linchpin like James unless Hill and Love successfully reprise larger roles from earlier in their careers.
Last season’s massive trade deadline deals proved necessary for their push to the Finals as numerous players battled through worse than expected seasons, especially Thompson and Smith. Cleveland has alternatives for both players but not a ton of wiggle room in terms of record if it takes some time to figure out the optimal rotation. If the Cavs fail to stick in the playoff picture, the front office will face some challenging decisions because so many contributors still have multiple years left on their contracts and eating partially guaranteed money for 2019-20 does not appear likely to create much usable cap space other than in larger overhaul scenarios. This season itself will likely dictate the 2019 offseason, raising the stakes for the players and management alike.
2. Can Colin Sexton establish himself as the point guard of the future?
This year’s eighth overall pick is the last significant remaining piece from the Kyrie Irving trade and will step into those shoes as Cleveland’s eventual lead guard. The Cavs can afford to be patient with him thanks to Hill’s place in the rotation, which is useful because teenage point guards almost always take time to develop in the NBA and growing pains in an even larger role would diminish their chances of making the postseason.
Even if he plays more of a rotation role early on, Sexton’s development will be crucial for the team’s future because he will help determine the timeline for both playoff viability and eventual contention. No rookie year is conclusive, but it will be an important data point as the front office determines their 2019 approach while also shifting the priorities for Cleveland’s first-round pick should they retain it since Sexton and Love are the most significant long-term pieces on the roster at the moment.
3. Will Kevin Love live up to his extension?
It may be strange to think of Sexton and Love as Cleveland’s key players because they are almost 10 years apart in age but they are the only two Cavaliers other than Ante Zizic currently under contract beyond 2019-20. Altman’s decision to give Love four seasons and $120 million this summer as opposed to waiting and either agreeing later in the season or rolling the dice with his player option and possibly free agency will affect the franchise for a while for better or worse. It is worth noting that a consistently rising salary cap will make Love’s $30 million per season age better but 2018-19 will tell us a lot about how that contract will look down the line.
Love’s last season as a high-usage player was almost five years ago in Minnesota but he still has the skill set to make it work, especially if Cleveland can effectively space the floor around him to limit opponents’ ability to help. Another key question will be how he fits in defensively because the Cavs will be in trouble without a top-five offense keeping them afloat like they had last season. Thompson and Nance will be important too, but Love will need to play some center and hold his own in other matchups to justify his contract and keep Cleveland competitive.
By Danny Leroux Oct 11, 2018 6
The new season is almost upon us and that creates fascinating new storylines, debates and dynamics for all 30 NBA teams. Salary cap/CBA expert Danny Leroux is breaking down the key questions each franchise faces this season with an eye toward the intriguing 2019 offseason, including information on the Cavs’ cap space, free agents and outlook.
Cleveland will end up being a fascinating test case for the importance of LeBron James as they largely kept the rest of the team together after his departure. While eighth overall pick Collin Sexton will be an important part of the rotation and the team’s future, most of their other departures and additions will be more on the margins, especially after Rodney Hood decided to sign his $3.5 million qualifying offer to become an unrestricted free agent next summer.
In fact, general manager Kobe Altman’s biggest move by far was retaining a player rather than an addition when the team agreed to an extension with Kevin Love adding four years and $120 million to his contract. Love’s season will play a major part in determining where the Cavs fit in the Eastern Conference now and moving forward as the franchise defines itself in a new era. Cleveland is a rarity in 2019 as a team that could push to clear cap space but may benefit from holding off, depending on how their veterans fare this year and their place in the trade and free-agency markets next summer.
Projected Cap Space: None – $24 million
2019 Draft Picks: Own first if 1-10
Potential Free Agents: Larry Nance Jr. (Restricted), George Hill (Partial Guarantee), JR Smith (Partial Guarantee), Kyle Korver (Partial Guarantee), Rodney Hood (Unrestricted), David Nwaba (Restricted), Sam Dekker (Restricted), Channing Frye (Unrestricted)
Extension-Eligible Players: Larry Nance Jr., JR Smith, Tristan Thompson, Jordan Clarkson, Sam Dekker
2019 Power Index: Very limited other than the possibility of taking on salary in a few different ways. The current Collective Bargaining Agreement fixed the loophole that previously allowed teams to use lightly protected contracts to take on larger obligations, which would have been very useful for Cleveland in 2019-20 with George Hill, JR Smith and Kyle Korver all having partial guarantees for that season (Note/correction: While the new rules limit the traded salary calculations for Hill and Korver, Smith signed under the previous CBA so Cleveland can use that process for his contract). Even so, Cleveland can create usable cap space by letting go of their veterans even if they retain Larry Nance Jr. and/or Hood. The front office could use that $16-24 million to sign free agents, take on bad salary or some combination of the two. Alternatively, management could extract assets by moving then-expiring contracts like Tristan Thompson and Jordan Clarkson for longer deals since some teams will use next July to line up their 2020 cap space. At this point, the Cavs’ contract structure lends itself to the team making more of a splash in 2020 than 2019 after locking up Kevin Love but they have an underappreciated amount of flexibility that could prove useful if Altman is ready for a bigger overhaul sooner than expected.
1. Does this group prove they are worth keeping together?
One of the most fascinating decisions in the entire NBA this summer was Altman largely keeping the Cavs’ roster together even after James announced he was taking his talents to Los Angeles. Cleveland has a collection of talented players, but the group makes substantially more sense with an offensive linchpin like James unless Hill and Love successfully reprise larger roles from earlier in their careers.
Last season’s massive trade deadline deals proved necessary for their push to the Finals as numerous players battled through worse than expected seasons, especially Thompson and Smith. Cleveland has alternatives for both players but not a ton of wiggle room in terms of record if it takes some time to figure out the optimal rotation. If the Cavs fail to stick in the playoff picture, the front office will face some challenging decisions because so many contributors still have multiple years left on their contracts and eating partially guaranteed money for 2019-20 does not appear likely to create much usable cap space other than in larger overhaul scenarios. This season itself will likely dictate the 2019 offseason, raising the stakes for the players and management alike.
2. Can Colin Sexton establish himself as the point guard of the future?
This year’s eighth overall pick is the last significant remaining piece from the Kyrie Irving trade and will step into those shoes as Cleveland’s eventual lead guard. The Cavs can afford to be patient with him thanks to Hill’s place in the rotation, which is useful because teenage point guards almost always take time to develop in the NBA and growing pains in an even larger role would diminish their chances of making the postseason.
Even if he plays more of a rotation role early on, Sexton’s development will be crucial for the team’s future because he will help determine the timeline for both playoff viability and eventual contention. No rookie year is conclusive, but it will be an important data point as the front office determines their 2019 approach while also shifting the priorities for Cleveland’s first-round pick should they retain it since Sexton and Love are the most significant long-term pieces on the roster at the moment.
3. Will Kevin Love live up to his extension?
It may be strange to think of Sexton and Love as Cleveland’s key players because they are almost 10 years apart in age but they are the only two Cavaliers other than Ante Zizic currently under contract beyond 2019-20. Altman’s decision to give Love four seasons and $120 million this summer as opposed to waiting and either agreeing later in the season or rolling the dice with his player option and possibly free agency will affect the franchise for a while for better or worse. It is worth noting that a consistently rising salary cap will make Love’s $30 million per season age better but 2018-19 will tell us a lot about how that contract will look down the line.
Love’s last season as a high-usage player was almost five years ago in Minnesota but he still has the skill set to make it work, especially if Cleveland can effectively space the floor around him to limit opponents’ ability to help. Another key question will be how he fits in defensively because the Cavs will be in trouble without a top-five offense keeping them afloat like they had last season. Thompson and Nance will be important too, but Love will need to play some center and hold his own in other matchups to justify his contract and keep Cleveland competitive.
