Re: Minor Matters
Posted: Sun Dec 22, 2024 11:58 am
2024 Cleveland Guardians Pitching Prospect of the Year
Has the pitching factory found a diamond in the rough?
Justin Lada
Dec 22
The top pitching prospect of the year in the Cleveland Guardians farm system is usually a pretty competitive group to pick from. The pitching factory hasn’t been quite as fruitful the past two seasons now as it has been. 2022 was an extremely easy pick of Tanner Bibee whereas 2023 was Will Dion, a lighter pick (as much as I liked Dion at the time) from years past. This year has some good options, perhaps a little more competitive, but picking between Bibee and Gavin Williams in 2022 felt much healthier in the system. In the past I’ve even been able to pick a pitcher as my prospect of the year for the organization.
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2023 Next Year in Cleveland - Cleveland Guardians Prospect of the Year
Justin Lada
·
Jan 1
2023 Next Year in Cleveland - Cleveland Guardians Prospect of the Year
2023 Next Year in Cleveland Guardians Prospect of the Year
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So that being said, here’s who I am considering for the Cleveland Guardians pitching prospect of the year in 2024.
RHP Austin Peterson
2024 line: 27 GS, 160 IP, 159 SO (22.7 K%), 21 BB (3.5 BB%), 2.64 ERA, 2.54 FIP
Coming in from UConn in the 2022 draft class, I had better expectations of Peterson in 2023 where he spent the entire season at Single-A Lynchburg, which given Peterson’s dominance in college, I thought he would be much better there than he was. He posted a 4.54 ERA and a 4.14 FIP as a four year college starter pitching at age 23 and only posted a 20.3 K%.
So to see what he did in 2024 was encouraging and sort of more in line with what I would have expected in 2023, except he was able to do it at two higher levels. He also posted a better walk rate overall and picked up his strikeout rate. His fastball only runs 90-92 and gets to 94 at times, but it plays up over its velocity due to his extension and being 6’6. He’s also a good athlete and repeats his delivery well for a longer limbed pitcher. His slider is a good above average secondary, and has about and average curveball and an above average changeup, that is a harder changeup (high 80s). He can throw all four for strikes and that really helped him take a leap in 2024 and if can get used to the ball in Triple-A quickly in 2025, he could be an option at the big league level as a starter. He also was second in all of minor league baseball in innings pitched (160), which is a good sign of durability too.
LHP Matt “Tugboat” Wilkinson
2024 line: 24 GS, 118.2 IP, 174 SO (37.6 K%), 37 BB (8%), 1.90 ERA, 2.69 FIP
Tugboat came into his 2024 debut with a reputation as a strike thrower and competitor in college with a husky build and quite the demeanor. All that was true all year long, jumping onto radar’s with a 15 strikeout game in his fourth start of the season and remained consistent in both performance and attitude all year.
Wilkinson succeeds due to his strike throwing ability but also his very low release angle to the plate which makes his fastball hard for hitters to pick up, which he needs as he only throws 87-89 and his 90-91 a few times in 2024. He pairs that with a changeup and slider that are both good offerings and he can throw all three for strikes. His command, deception and pitchability were good enough to dominate Low-A and High-A. It’s been a great story for a 10th round pick out of a JUCO to have this kind of success and his body type also lends him to being more of a cult hero too. The question will remain if that fastball velocity will work in Double-A and above or if he will need more.
LHP Parker Messick
2024 line: 26 GS, 133.2 IP, 165 SO (30.2 K%), 44 BB (8 BB%), 2.83 ERA, 3.25 FIP
The 2022 2nd rounder repeated High-A to start the year after a strong performance in over 80 innings there in 2023. He brought his ERA down some and trimmed his walk rate just slightly. Messick saw his fastball velocity a tad more consistent in 2024, running more 89-92 and hitting 94, up from 88-90 and hitting 92 last year. He’s continuing to improve his physical conditioning as well, which has helped. He finished fifth in the minors in strikeouts, despite finishing outside of the top 30 in innings pitched. His strikeout rate actually went up slightly in Double-A (28.3% to 32.3%) while maintaining the same walk rate within 0.1 (8.1%). It’s a good sign that his plus changeup continued to play against upper level hitters and his lighter fastball didn’t set him back any further, showing that the shallow approach angle on it also worked at that level. His control/command largely remained the same throughout the year, and we will see at the next level if that maintains, but he stayed on track to be a back to the rotation starter at the major league level despite Cleveland’s slow tempo with his promotions.
2024 Cleveland Guardians Pitching Prospect of the Year
RHP Austin Peterson
2024 line: 27 GS, 160 IP, 159 SO (22.7 K%), 21 BB (3.5 BB%), 2.64 ERA, 2.54 FIP
Perhaps a controversial call here for some because of Wilkinson’s strong performance in 2024 (2nd in strikeouts, 1st in K%). I suppose the best pitching performer of the year in the system should probably be the best numbers, but I’m allowing the future to factor in a little here when it comes to Peterson vs. Wilkinson. Peterson might be a little more similar to Messick actually, and all three actually probably carry the same future (4/5 starters) but Peterson to me has the best command of this group, and I buy his fastball playing more at the big league level due to being a little more stable (90-92, t94) and playing up due to extension, though Messick and Wilkinson do have unique approach angles on the fastball that help aid them. I also liked the increased depth of Peterson’s slider this year, his ability to throw the curve for strikes more and his changeup at times looked really nasty, a power type changeup that if he can find that level more consistently, might give him his lone plus pitch. I could see Peterson climbing as high as a lighter no. 3 starter who will probably have some home run issues because of his tendency to be in the zone and his fastball velocity won’t give him room for error, but the other three pitchers and command should give him enough to handle being a #3 or #4. I bought in a little too much on Will Dion a year ago here thinking that his secondaries and command, and ability to suppress homers in Double-A would allow him to overcome a bad fastball. I also bought in on Dion going to Driveline and working on his delivery and sustaining some velo. That didn’t pay off and Peterson could very well see some similar issues at Triple-A as he gets used to the different ball and does have a lighter fastball, but it’s still a better fastball than Dion and he’s a much more physical pitcher too at 6’4. So I’m buying in once again here with Peterson having a very consistent season that could carry into 2025, whereas I don’t have enough belief in Tugboat’s fastball quite yet to work, the same way Dion’s didn’t and Messick doesn’t have as elegant of control or command as Peterson. As I said in the past, this has been Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee in 2022, so the upside was much more clear there. 2024 like 2023 is more of a shot and projection, but that’s a little more fun and I’m buying in on Peterson.