Cleveland Sports Forum

Guardians Prospective
@CleGuardPro
The following Cleveland #Guardians minor league players have elected free agency.

INF Aaron Bracho
INF Raynel Delgado
OF Alexfri Planez
C Bryan Lavastida
C Dom Nunez
C Micael Ramirez

RHP Jerson Ramirez
RHP Lenny Torres Jr.
RHP Wardquelin Vasquez

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Cleveland Guardians Prospect Report 11/7/2024


Scoreboard:
Arizona Fall League - Glendale Desert Dogs 5, Surprise Saguaros 1
Guardians Prospects:
Chase DeLauter (DH): 0-4, 2K - The good news is that after being pinch ran for earlier this week, DeLauter was back in the lineup. Unfortunately he was 0-4 with two strikeouts here. To be fair, both were looking and the first one he looks like he might have gotten jobbed on. I don’t mind the looking strikeouts if they’re borderline. The current Guardians hitters often swing at borderline pitches too much just to avoid the strikeout and can’t really do damage with it. Sometimes that can force a fielder into an error, but often an 80 MPH groundout on a pitch you shouldn’t be swinging at does little damage. Just otherwise the balls DeLauter put in play here did nothing. But at least he’s healthy, which again is his entire point of playing in the AFL.


Milan Tolentino (2B): 1-3, BB, 2 SB, 2K - Tolentino reached base twice and stole a base both times. He’s up to 11 in the AFL. His single was 106 off the bat, so there is that. But he’s still hitting below .200 in the AFL. Output isn’t everything in the AFL, but if you’re really struggling, it’s not the best sign.

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© 2024 Justin Lada

That's a compartively short list of minor league free agents compared to some teams who load up on veteran talent since they are poor at development.

On the list we have two top 5 round draft picks: Torres who's had lots of injury trouble; Delgado who actually had a pretty solid last 4 months in Columbus and should be popular and might make the majors somewhere; Bracho a hot prospect very briefly; and Lavastida who made the G's opening day roster when a couple years back when we were short on healthy backstops; and Planez who sometimes interested fans for his power potential.

2024 Cleveland Guardians Defensive Prospect of the Year

Doing defensive prospect of the year for me is one of the harder ‘awards’ to put together, because defensive highlights are just harder to spot on MilLB TV because camera angles can be hard to get a good clip and then they don’t show up on highlights and I can’t be at every game in person.

So this is usually a category where I try to rely a little on whatever publicly available data I can find along with the looks I’ve had as well.

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The other piece of it is usually omitting positions like left field and first base even with quality defensive performances there just due to low value from those positions. Then I also wonder the predictability and overall impact value of being a strong defender, or giving the appearance of being a strong defensive prospect in the minors.

With that being said, here’s a list of who I think are the Guardians prospects with the best defensive tools, weighted a little for impact of position, and the best defender.

C Kody Huff: Huff threw out an impressive 33% of would-be base stealers in Double-A (33/99). He finished head and shoulders better than any other catcher in Double-A in Baseball Prospectus’ catcher DRP (defensive runs prevented) at 15.8 (second place was 9.7). He was also first in framing runs (11.3), and second in throwing runs (3.9). He did finish sixth in blocking runs (0.7). This tracks with clocking him at a (.) pop time in my looks. He’s a (one) leg catcher, which is popular these days for low framing and easier blocking, plus in most cases less health issues. Dan Szymborski’s defensive ratings for all minor leaguers had Huff at +8.6. The data and live looks here all make a strong case for Huff’s defensive prowess. He was voted best defensive prospect in the California League in 2023 by league managers. This should easily have Huff on track as a defensive minded backup catcher in the majors by 2025 or 2026. He’s also continued to put up some strong exit velocities in the AFL this year, which is also interesting to watch even though it has nothing to do with defense.

OF Jaison Chourio: This is a harder one I’m including where I don’t really have numbers. Not concrete ones anyway. My personal evaluation here likes Chourio’s expected range and relies on his speed to cover center field. Baseball Prospectus’ DRP has him as a negative defender (-0.8). However, Clay Davenport’s Davenport Translations have him as a +2 in center and an even 0 in right. Then, Chourio was also named the best defensive outfielder by non-Lynchburg managers in the Carolina League, as recorded by Baseball America. That’s all enough for me to put him on this list. I think he could stay in center but could wind up in left field, mostly because his arm may not be one of this carrying defensive tools and would be better suited for center or left.

SS Angel Genao: This is another one where some publicly available metrics won’t agree with me, and that’s OK. My eyes were always very focused on Genao and I saw Lake County exclusively in person this year. He’s got a 55 arm, at least and I’d give him at least a chance to be an average defensive shortstop in the future. There’s some question that his body could push him over to third base. He grew quite a bit from 2023 to 2024. He needs some more consistency at the position, so he’s not a finished product. But remember, an average defensive shortstop is a lot more valuable than an average defender at any other position save for center or catcher.

Honorable Mentions

1B CJ Kayfus: Dan Szymborski’s numbers also had him as one of the best defender’s at his position in the minors. And seeing him in person, I agree. There’s range and good hands, and good at scoops at first. He also showed some good range in left. He’s just not on the main list because it’s hard to really value defense at first base among this group.

C Cooper Ingle: Baseball Prospectus’ DRP likes him here too, mostly for framing. Ingle was at times battling a shoulder issue in 2024 so I wonder how much that impacted his throwing, but he definitely had issues throwing runners out.

C Jacob Cozart: Listing him here because he was 7-for-15 throwing runners out in his short time at Lake County. He has the makings of a good receiver, a one-knee catcher looking to steal the low strikes and I think he will be a good blocker.
Cleveland Guardians 2024 Defensive Prospect of the Year

C Kody Huff: The 33% caught stealing rate at Double-A, plus finishing atop the DRA leaderboards for all defensive players at that level as well. And this isn’t a surprise, given that managers also named him the best defensive catcher in the Cal League a year ago. A lot of the value here is framing and throwing. You wonder how much longer framing is going to matter, in which case blocking should become more important. But clearly Huff has a lot of value in his arm, which is more important these days. And as I pointed out in the intro, this is a complicated title for me to write about because it’s hard to discern how much defense can be a carrying tool as a prospect. And the places where defense can carry you are catcher, short and center. And then I have to ask, how MUCH does it matter in the case of a player who is most likely to be a backup in Huff? But knowing how much Cleveland values catcher defense also biases me to pick him here as well to believe that the defense is impactful enough to give him some predictive value at the major league level in Cleveland, leading me to choose him here.

Special congratulations to Kody Huff for being both a winner and earning honorable mention.

I looked through the BA Top 30 as of the end of the season where each position player listed gets a rating for defense and for arm strength

Huff doesn't make the top 30 so I have no numbers on him but I've always seen him described as a big league backup quality defender.
Of those on the list, on the 20-80 rating scale, those who rate highest are

First Number is "defense" Second Number is "arm"

DeLauter 55/660
Chourio 55/55
Genao 55/55
Halpin 55/55
Cozart 55/50
Jake Fox 55/50
Robert Arias 55/50
JRod 50/60
Kahlil Watson 50/60
Alex Mooney 50/55

Bazzano, Brito and Kayfus are all rated 50/50.
The only sub-50 defender on the list are George IL Valera with a 45 and a 50 arm; and Ralphy Velazquek 45 with a 55 arm, not that relevant for the 1st baseman he's become but there is a chance he'll move to LF.

Travis Bazzana (2B, Australia): The lone Guardians prospect playing in this month’s Premier12 international tournament wrapped up his pre-tourney exhibition slate this weekend (was unable to procure boxscores in time for this column) and will begin hi tournament on Wednesday at 5 AM US ET against Japan. The tournament is airing on DAZN ($15 to subscribe for a month with a Black Friday discount which should be available for the duration of the tournament as it ends before Thanksgiving).

Arizona All Star type game. Our only representative Allan Hernandez with 1 scoreless inning, no hits walks or strikeouts, 10 pitches and done.

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Cleveland Guardians Prospect Report 11/11/2024
Matthew Kennell
Nov 12






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Scoreboard:
Arizona Fall League - Scottsdale Scorpions 5, Surprise Saguaros 2
Guardians Prospects:

Kody Huff (DH, Surprise): 1-for-4, R, SB - Huff’s single with two outs in the top of the sixth kept the inning alive and he came around to score thanks to a stolen base, walk, and two wild pitches while serving as the team’s designated hitter.

Milan Tolentino (SS, Surprise): 0-for-2, R, 2 BBs - Despite not getting a hit, Tolentino reached base twice on walks to show patience with runners on ahead of him.

Andrew Misiaszek (RP, Surprise): 1.0 IP, H, 0 R, BB, K - Misiaszek was tasked with the bottom of the seventh after a leadoff single and the opponents would load the bases with a single and walk, but he was able to get out of the jam without any further damage.

Alaska Abney (RP, Surprise): 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BBs, 3 Ks - Unlike Misiaszek, Abney entered and went 1-2-3 with strikeouts. It only took 12 pitches (nine strikes) to get through the bottom of the eighth.

No one thinks of him as a major prospect but one of our relievers in Arizona was one of the
"stars of the Arizona League All Star game"

Allan Hernandez, RHP (CLE)
A sleeper prospect drafted in the 12th round out of a Miami high school in 2019, Hernandez delivered the lone 1-2-3 inning of the night. He needed just 10 pitches to navigate a perfect fourth while working with a mid-90s fastball and a mid-80s slider.

From Mandy Bell, the Guardians writer at MLB.com for the past several years

It was another year of the Guardians leaning heavily on their farm system.
This was the youngest team in baseball in 2022 -- the year in which it saw 17 players make their Major League debuts. It was the third youngest by the end of the 2024 season. With their success in each of these seasons, the Guardians continue to prove that age is just a number.

But what does that mean moving forward? Has the pipeline run dry yet? Let’s take a deeper look.
3 players who forced their way onto the radar this year

RHP Andrew Walters (Guardians’ No. 21 prospect according to MLB Pipeline)
It started with a near immaculate inning during the Spring Breakout game in March. It ended with him being part of Cleveland’s postseason bullpen. He owned a 1.35 ERA in 17 games with Double-A Akron. He struggled for a brief moment when he was promoted to Triple-A Columbus, but proceeded to lock in and pitch to a 2.97 ERA in 33 games. The Guardians had no choice but to get him into big league action, and now they know they have an exciting reliever for years to come.
Andrew Walters

1B C.J. Kayfus (No. 6 prospect)
In 40 games with High-A Lake County, Kayfus hit .338 with a 1.015 OPS. He was promoted to Double-A Akron and slowed a little, hitting .263 with an .836 OPS, 10 homers and 55 RBIs in 67 games. But overall on the season, he finished in the top five of all Guardians Minor Leaguers in the following categories:
• Hits (4th, 118)
• Doubles (3rd, 26)
• Triples (T-3rd, six)
• Extra-base hits (3rd, 49)
• Runs scored (5th, 70)
• RBIs (2nd, 92)
• Average (5th, .291)
• Slugging percentage (3rd, .511)
• OPS (3rd, .904)

LHP Parker Messick (No. 18 prospect)
Messick’s season just kept getting better. After a strong start in High-A Lake County, leveled up with Double-A Akron, owning a 2.06 ERA in 14 appearances (13 starts) with 85 strikeouts in 65 2/3 innings. And for an organization that’s thin in the starting pitching department, building up this pipeline is critical.

2 possible breakout players to watch in 2025

2B Travis Bazzana (No. 1 prospect)
How can’t we have high expectations for this past year’s No. 1 overall pick? Bazzana has unbelievable contact ability and lightning-fast bat speed that should translate well through each level of professional baseball. He has the ability to hit for some power, already has experience helping High-A Lake County win a title with his eyes set on the Majors for 2025. Can he pull it off? His performance will dictate the outcome.

RHP Franco Aleman (No. 30 prospect): The Guardians had the best bullpen in baseball this past season and they have another arm waiting for his chance on the big league mound. Aleman owned a 1.99 ERA in 25 games with Triple-A Columbus this season, striking out 34 batters in 22 2/3 innings in a season that was hindered by a right lat strain. Because Aleman will probably be added to the 40-man roster this offseason to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft, it makes his path to the Majors even easier.

1 big question for next season
What is the future for No. 10 prospect right-hander Daniel Espino?
We’ve been here before. This was Cleveland’s former top prospect before tendinitis in his knee turned into right shoulder soreness in 2022. Then that shoulder soreness required shoulder surgery, forcing him to miss the entire ’23 season. Just before the ’24 season began, he realized his shoulder wasn’t recovering the way he needed it to, leading to yet another procedure in the same area. He missed all of ’24.

If he would’ve stayed healthy, Espino would’ve made his Major League debut by now. His fastball is elite, sitting at 95-98 mph and topping out at 103 mph. He could’ve been the missing starter this organization is desperately in search of. Instead, he’s a soon-to-be 24-year-old righty who knows he’s one more setback away from wondering if this dream can ever become reality.

Next season needs to be a step forward for Espino. We don’t know what his projected timetable is to be back to game action just yet. But he needs to get back on the rubber and face hitters in a game for the first time since April 29, 2022. If that can happen, everything else should fall in place after that.

Another pitcher whose spent all his time on the IL the past two seasons is Justin Campbell, 2nd round pick in 2022 who signed for $1,7Million and hasn't thrown a professional pitch yet 6-7 righty. In 2023 he had ulnar nerve decompression surgery; in 2024 he had Tommy John surgery. Since recovery from TJ is at least a year there's no certainty he'd be ready by the start of the 2025 season if he recovers
It won't be long before he's Rule 5 eligible without an inning on his statsheet.
He was taken a round ahead of Messick who got $1.3M and may be worth it.
One round after DeLauter who has been injured most of the time, but has a bit of experience under his belt.

11th round high school pick Jacob Zibin signed for a far above slot $1.2M as a 10th rounder in that same draft; only 17, we knew he's take a long time but he had very impressive stuff; but he's had the same experience as Campbell but with his surgeries in reverse order:
2023 TJ
2024 ulnar nerve transposition.

Baseball America's statcast hitter ratings were published last week; now the pitching statcast numbers are out. Here's what they say about the Guardians

Pitch-level data allows us to add context to the difference between two pitches at the same velocity that may generate very different results. For example, understanding how a pitch moves to the plate and the traits that impact the ball’s flight allow us to more properly assess the quality of that pitch. In turn, this allows us to get a more accurate understanding of how that pitch will translate against major league hitting.

Examined below is a combination of pitch-level data and pitch-by-pitch performance metrics. Our goal was to more accurately understand which organizations have the highest quality of overall pitching talent. This also allows us to see what traits certain organizations may prioritize in the draft and international free agency.

Our Methodology
For each organization, team-level metrics such as whiff and chase rate were calculated by aggregating the metrics of each pitcher, weighted by number of pitches thrown by each pitcher in the organization at the end of the 2024 season (after the trade deadline) to provide an overall assessment of the pitching strength and depth of each organization.

The overall organization’s Stuff+ number is a blended metric of each pitcher’s Stuff+ (based on our internal model). The resultant number was then scaled on a wRC+ scale where 100 is average and a standard deviation is 10 points. In other words, an organization with an overall Stuff+ number of 90 is one standard deviation worse than a league-average organization.

Only players between the ages of 17 to 25 years old who threw at least 100 pitches in 2024 were included in this exercise. Any pitcher older than that was removed to minimize the impact of older pitchers on rehabilitation stints or older veterans who make up a great deal of the Triple-A pitching staffs. This was intended to remove the “noise” from non-prospects and isolate, with more granularity, the team’s prospect pool.

Similar to last year, we also removed all players who spent the entirety of their season at the complex level. There’s less reliability with the data at that level, and its impact on overall performance could cloud the final results.

Organizational Pitching Statcast Ranking


stuff+ whiff% CSw% chase%
BAL 105.7 30.7% 43.4% 26.8%
SEA 105.7 26.1% 43.1% 26.7%
LAD 105.3 28.8% 41.9% 25.5%
BOS103.9 30.1% 44.5% 26.7%
NYM103.8 28.2% 43.2% 26.0%
TB 103.8 29.4% 43.8% 27.5%
TEX 103.1 30.7% 44.2% 26.8%
CIN 102.8 28.2% 42.6% 25.8%
TOR 102.5 28.6% 42.7% 27.1%
DET 102.5 28.8% 44.5% 27.1%
NYY 102.2 28.8% 43.8% 25.8%
MIL 102.1 29.5% 44.0% 26.7%
MIA 102 28.6% 43.5% 26.7%
COL 101.6 28.7% 43.8% 26.9%
KC 101.6 27.4% 43.3% 26.9%
LAA 101.6 28.3% 41.6% 25.6%
PIT 101.6 28.2% 42.7% 26.2%
HOU101.6 28.9% 42.9% 25.9%
CLE 101.4 28.6% 43.7% 26.6%
PHI 101.3 29.1% 42.9% 26.4%
ATL 101 29.9% 44.3% 28.0%
CWS101 29.7% 43.3% 26.4%
CHC100.9 29.8% 42.3% 26.0%
MIN 100.8 28.0% 45.2% 27.4%
SD 100.4 28.5% 42.6% 25.8%
SF 100.2 28.4% 43.4% 26.5%
WSH99.7 27.3% 41.3% 26.5%
OAK99.5 27.0% 41.1% 26.0%
AZ 99.5 29.5% 42.7% 26.5%
STL 99.4 27.9% 43.1% 27.2%

stuff+ whiff% csw% chase%
BAL 1 1 13 10
SEA 2 30 17 14
LAD 3 12 27 30
BOS 4 3 3 11
NYM 5 22 16 22
TB 6 9 7 2
TEX 7 2 5 9
CIN 8 23 24 27
TOR 9 18 23 5
DET 10 14 2 6
NYY 11 13 8 26
MIL 12 8 6 13
MIA 13 16 11 12
COL 14 15 9 8
KC 15 27 15 7
LAA 16 21 28 29
PIT 17 24 21 21
HOU 18 11 20 25
CLE 19 17 10 15
PHI 20 10 19 19
ATL 21 4 4 1
CWS 22 6 14 20
CHC 23 5 26 23
MIN 24 25 1 3
SD 25 19 25 28
SF 26 20 12 16
WSH 27 28 29 17
OAK 28 29 30 24
AZ 29 7 22 18
STL 30 26 18 4