Are warning signs emerging with Guardians’ pitching rotation?
Updated: May. 08, 2025, 3:02 p.m.|Published: May. 08, 2025, 11:57 a.m.
By Cleveland Baseball Talk Podcast, cleveland.com
CLEVELAND, Ohio — The Guardians may have emerged from a brutal 22-game stretch with a winning 14-8 record, but beneath the surface, troubling signs are brewing with the starting rotation that could spell disaster in the coming weeks.
In the latest Cleveland Baseball Talk podcast, cleveland.com beat writer Paul Hoynes didn’t mince words when assessing the state of the Guardians’ starting pitching: “When you look at the big picture for this rotation, I think there’s some reason for concern.”
While the starters posted a respectable 2-0 record with a 4.91 ERA during the team’s recent 4-2 road trip through Toronto and Washington, the deeper statistics paint a much more concerning picture. Hoynes laid out the disturbing truth with startling clarity:
“Through the 37 games they’ve played, they have given up the most walks in the American League. They have the second highest batting average against in the AL. They’ve allowed the third most runs, they’ve allowed the fourth most hits. But when it comes to getting that big strikeout, they only rank 11th in the AL with 161 strikeouts.”
This statistical evidence reveals a rotation that’s living dangerously. The combination of allowing too many baserunners while failing to miss bats creates a precarious foundation that can quickly crumble, especially as the season progresses and fatigue becomes a factor.
Perhaps most concerning is the impact this could have on what has been, until recently, a reliable bullpen. As Hoynes pointedly warned, “They definitely have to get some more length out of this rotation. They’ve got to get more innings out of the rotation or they’re going to fry this bullpen.”
We’re already seeing early warning signs of bullpen fatigue. Typically reliable relievers like Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis have shown cracks recently, including in the Washington series. Even All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase has experienced his own struggles during this stretch of games, blowing save opportunities in ways that seemed unthinkable based on his dominating 2024 performance.
The podcast discussion highlighted that these bullpen inconsistencies directly stem from the rotation’s inability to work deep into games. When starters consistently fail to go at least five innings, it creates a cascading effect of overwork throughout the relief corps.
“Some of these games are going to be a little tighter,” Joe Noga noted on the podcast, “and they’re going to need that sort of lockdown feeling late in the game. You know, they take the lead in the seventh and then the bullpen doesn’t take their foot off of the other team’s throat. I think that’s a big area of concern right now.”
The pitching concerns stand in stark contrast to the team’s recent offensive explosions, where they’ve frequently erupted for big innings late in games against opposing bullpens. This pattern of late-game scoring has masked the rotation’s issues, but it’s not a sustainable model for long-term success.
With challenging series ahead against the Phillies and Brewers — two of the National League’s strongest teams — the Guardians’ pitching staff will face an immediate test that could expose these underlying concerns even further.
Want to hear more about the Guardians’ pitching concerns and what needs to change? Listen to the full Cleveland Baseball Talk podcast to get Paul Hoynes and Joe Noga’s complete breakdown of the team’s current pitching situation and what it means for their continued success in 2025.
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Podcast transcript
Joe Noga 0:04Welcome back to the Cleveland Baseball Talk podcast. I’m Joe Noga, joined by Paul Hoynes, Hoynesy. The Guardians take the series finale in Washington in a matinee affair, come back with a a big eight run rally and and pull ahead.When Mike Sirocco looked like he was sort of lights out the the Guardians get to him there in the 6th inning and you know, it becomes sort of a common theme. We’ll talk about their their offense in the beginnings. They’re able to put up, but it sort of just puts a bow on a 22.Game stretch for the for the Guardians, where they went 14 and eight and just a really tough stretch of games that they they come out with a winning record., You know what did you see that you liked from the the series in Washington and and in general with this.?This three-week stretch here.
Paul Hoynes 1:03Yeah, Joe really liked the way the offense came back. Obviously in in the 6th inning there they were down what, 3 nothing and came back, took an, you know, 8 to 3 lead. You think they’re going to blow it open?.And then, you know, the bullpen struggles a little bit in the 7th. It turns into a game again at 8 in eight to six, but they hang on for the win., And you’re right, Joe, 22 games in 23 days, 2 double headers. The competition they faced was was was decent, I mean.But.Baltimore, Pittsburgh, then that 10 game home stand in which they play the Yankees, Boston, the Twins, and then they go on the road to face a good Toronto team and a Washington team that can really hit. Thankfully, their bullpen isn’t as good.‘Cause that allowed the Guardians to come back a couple of times in that series.
Joe Noga 2:06Yeah, and and that was sort of the the the pattern there that they they fell into was, you know, not a lot of offense early in the game and then one big inning and then turn it over to the bullpen and and you sort of had to had to take the ride on the roller coaster with the bullpen throughout this past week.We can talk about the,. You know the are the numbers that the the pitching staff putting up, are they? They’re really hiding, you know, some sort of deeper issues there. But you know, I want to talk about during this, this most recent stretch just.You know, we knew that there weren’t going to be a lot of breaks, days off, but just the the way that these guys kept their energy up. And I think the second game of that double header on Tuesday night was sort of a prime example of that. Austin Hedges being a guy who, you know, came in.The way they lost the the opener on Tuesday after, you know, a big inning, they the the bullpen sort of faltered, gave the gave the lead back. They lose the game. You could have been down and deflated after that and gone out and gotten swept in the doubleheader,. But instead, Cleveland puts up a A.Huge offensive output. Daniel Schneemann with a home run. Carlos Santana with A3 run blast. We’ve seen Santana over the last week really sort of turn things on at the plate after a long stretch of, you know, going hitless.Just the resilience of this team when when you knew they sort of had to dig deep to to to find the energy to to come through with those last two wins, they certainly did that.
Paul Hoynes 3:49Yeah, Joe, and I like the way they put those big innings together. They did a little bit of just, you know, moving the chains, you know, passing the baton. For an example,? Yesterday with the 8 run, 6 inning, they sent 13 guys to the plate. They get six single six hits, only one of them for extra base hit.Draw some walks, steal a base. They just kept the kept the line moving. And in the second game of Tuesday’s double header, they scored three runs in the sixth, three runs in the eighth, two runs in, I mean three in the 7th, 2 in the 8th, one in the 9th. And like you said, they use power there, you know?.Santana, with the home run and then then, you know, Schneemann with the home run and then hedges. So you know they’re they’re doing it both ways, which, you know is the best of both worlds.
Joe Noga 4:34Daniel.Yeah, and and I think Stephen Vogt is also figuring some things out with with that lineup with some guys. It’s it’s always going to be interchangeable parts with him. But he put Daniel Schneeman in the two hole after a big weekend in Toronto and and he continued to produce. He’s he’s putting up good at bats.And, you know, drawing walks and and and also hitting for power that that emerging power that we’ve been talking about, which Neiman is important and it seems like 39 years old, you know, Carlos Santana continues to give you professional at bats at every opportunity.But you know, when they needed him in. In Tuesday’s nightcap, he comes through with a big three run Homer off Brad Lord, who hadn’t given up, you know, more than a base hit and a walk prior to that.
Paul Hoynes 5:36Yeah, and and yesterday he’s get what he gets a three run double with in the eight run in the eight run 6. So you know he’s he’s he’s kind of overcoming that April slow start and we’re starting to see the real Carlos Santana. Hopefully he keeps moving in the right direction.
Joe Noga 5:40Mhm.
Paul Hoynes 5:55You know,. If you look at his career, that’s the way it’s trended. And even at 39, Joe, he’s still,. He’s still proven. He’s a dangerous hitter.
Joe Noga 6:05Yeah, Stephen Vogt was talking about how it’s like a self-fulfilling prophecy sometimes with guys when they when they speak about, you know, oh, I don’t normally hit in April or something like that. You know, it’s well,. If you talk like that, then you start to not hit in April. Well, he said the narrative switched with with Carlos Santana and now now he’s talking.About sort of forgetting about the idea that, oh, I can’t hit in the the first month of the season and you know, you saw it in in Washington., He he really enjoys hitting in that in that park in the the three run double really just sort of flipped that game on its ear instantly to that.At that, point, Mike Soroka, had been, had been really dealing and and the Guardians took advantage. Jose Ramirez scoring all the way from first. I’m looking at him like, oh man, they’re going to hold him. You know, they want to be careful with his ankle, that kind of thing. He ran, he ran right through another helmet, you know, flying off his head.As as he scored the the tying run at that point. All right, so you know we talked about Daniel Schneeman there. Let’s let’s also give some credit to Gabriel Arias, 4 hit game, his first four hit game of his career yesterday.In the series finale, Gabriel Arias is starting to sort of pull ahead in that in the idea of who the the Guardians want to have there. As their shortstop, Brian Roccio sort of fading in that regard.
Paul Hoynes 7:38Yeah.Yeah, definitely. You know, Arias had just a great trip. Goes hits 429, 9 for 21 on on the six game swing through Toronto, and Washington. Meanwhile, Rochio, you know, went, you know, is really struggling. He took a I think he went over.16 Yeah, he went. He took it all for 16 on the trip, Joe. And just, you know, body, language wise does not look, you know, really confident, right, now. And you know he’s losing playing time. And you can, you know, you. And you can see the reason why defensively. I think he’s still.Feel good, but offensively they need a little more from him.
Joe Noga 8:22Yeah. And and and really that patience that the the Guardians have have really shown for the last several years with Arias in in bringing him along and giving him opportunities. It’s really sort of paying off, right now.
Paul Hoynes 8:35Yeah, Joe, when they sent him down last year in July, he was hitting 222. He’s in a,. You know, one for 16 slump. And you know,. I’m thinking, OK,. This guy’s gone. You know,. We have seen the last of Gabriel Arias,. You know, he was,? He would be out of options. This year.As he is, and he would have to make the ball club out of spring training, which he did. But I don’t think anyone could see the turnaround he’s had. Offensively. He’s, you know, really, really played well. He’s he’s hitting 287 overall, 4/4 home runs, 16 RBIs, you know this.This is the best we’ve seen him swing the bat since he came over in the in the Mike Clevenger trade from San Diego in 2020.
Joe Noga 9:24Does this have sort of a like a trickle down effect for the rest of the the infield, the options that that vote has? We’ve seen the combination of Arias and Daniel Schneeman there playing at second base a lot more and a lot more regularly to start games at least.You know, once you get into a game, Vogt has that tendency to move players around and and use a guy like Schneemann’s versatility. But in fact, I think in the the game where he hit the the the Grand Slam, the two home runs in Toronto, Schneemann played like 3 different positions in that game.But you know, having both of them in the lineup right now seems to be, you know, one of the things that’s sustaining this offense.Dating this offense.
Paul Hoynes 10:09Yeah, you know, Joe, definitely. And you know, I I hate to,. You can’t even really say what positions those two guys play. Because like you said, I mean one time, you know, Arias is starting at second base, the next game. He’s starting at third,. The next game, he’s starting at second base. And the same with Schneemann. Schneemann can end up in center field. He can play second base.He can play shortstop and you’re right,. They’re movable pieces on the board when the game starts, especially late in the game because they’re so versatile and they can play so many different positions. So I don’t know if you just, maybe we just call them starting utility players. I’m not sure where, where, where these guys line up on the board.
Joe Noga 10:48Yeah, or or just starters.? I mean that’s that’s sort of the thing. It’s like it it it’s almost like the NBA is is positionless basketball nowadays with the, the, the five guys on the floor. You know you you got to squeeze them into categories I guess.
Paul Hoynes 10:51Yeah, yeah.
Joe Noga 11:05But yeah, positionless baseball, there you go. And and I it sort of reminded me of the the beginning of the season last year with the way that he used David Fry, the way that Stephen Vogt used David Fry. And in so many different ways and the the flexibility that you had in a game where.I could start behind the plate, but then, you know, go somewhere in the field and then maybe even come back behind the plate at some point because the guys come off the bench and you move, move guys around. It’s one of the things that they’re lacking with him. Are, you know, rehabbing that elbow injury. But I I think that’s one of the ways that Steven Vogt is, is sort of.Really good at managing is when he has multiple position players that he can put at different spots all over the board.
Paul Hoynes 11:55Yeah, he loves to do that. The whole organization is built that way to instill versatility in the players. Really. You know, Jose Ramirez is kind of the outlier there. He he plays third base and only third base, and Stephen Kwan plays left field and only left Field,. But everybody else is.
Joe Noga 12:10OK.
Paul Hoynes 12:15Interchangeable. And you know that helps them stretch the, you know, the stretch the roster really. Instead of 26 man roster they’ve got, they figured, you know, figuratively. They’ve got like a twenty-eight or twenty-nine man roster.
Joe Noga 12:29Yeah, it’s real interesting to to see the way that they’ve sort of developed that this over the last two years. And when they’re healthy, everything’s, everything sort of falls into place that way. All right,. Let’s talk about this, this idea of these big innings that this offense has had the last couple of games.And really just the ability to sort of get things rolling, sort of turn on a diamond and do that. We’ve seen it that we’ve seen them do it with the long ball, Carlos Santana the other night against Brad Lord., We’ve seen them do it death by a 1,000,000 pin ******.With the singles and walks and and stolen bases, just, you know, what’s the is there a common theme? Is there a common pattern? Talking to Craig Albernas on Sunday,? You know he talks about how usually when Steven Vogt leads off with a a base hit or a walk.That’s a good start, he said. Kwan. Getting on base is usually a pretty good start, was was the quote from Craig Albert as So what happens after Kwan gets on base that that sort of sparks this magic for these guys?
Paul Hoynes 13:42Yeah, I think, you know, it’s just,. You know, the philosophy of not trying to do too much. You know, if you have to take a walk, take a walk,. Just get on base anywhere you can. Let the guy behind you handle his, do his job. And you know that when you and once you start having success in that.It just carries over. And Joe,. I think we’ve seen it this whole Rd. trip. You know, they did this late, especially late in the games after the 5th inning. You know what? They scored eight runs in the 6th inning, yesterday. They scored. What’s 6-8, nine, nine, all nine runs.Second.The game of the the doubleheader starting, starting in the 6th inning and and even in the the doubleheader loss that they in the in the game in game one, they scored six runs in the 7th inning, six of their nine runs. So you know, we’ve seen this time and time again, especially against.The Nationals in this series where they’ve, you know, they’ve,. They’ve been kind of stymied, late,. I mean, early, they haven’t scored much, and then they get that one big inning going and then they’re hard to stop.
Joe Noga 14:52Yeah. Could it be also an ability or a tendency to take advantage of another team’s bullpen as well?. I mean, we know that the Nationals didn’t necessarily have the strongest bullpen in the league. Toronto,. We saw them sort of take advantage late as well.Some relievers, just maybe there’s something to that, ability. Stephen Vogt said yesterday after the game. You know, when there’s blood in the water, we we sense it. You know when when they’re hurting or when they’re when there’s an ability to take advantage of the other team.You know, he said. We go, we we we sort of jump on that and go. I just, I think there’s there’s something to them being able to attack relievers more so than finding success against the starters in, in, in lately in some of these games.
Paul Hoynes 15:46Yeah, that’s really interesting because Vogt always says, you know, he builds a line up to beat the starter and they haven’t had a whole lot of success against starters, but they’ve they’ve, you know, that line up is is kind of, you know has had their way with when they get into the later innings against against the bullpen so.I’m not sure what’s at work there, but whatever it is, they hopefully they keep doing it because right now they’re a dangerous team, Joe. They they have, they’re, you know, I I was always worried. I’ve been worried about the offense, but certainly.You know, on this road trip,. They hit what, I think 320 with runners in scoring position in the six games. And you know you’re going to win a lot of games when you do that.
Joe Noga 16:35Yeah, that was the the sort of take away that that you wrote about was their ability to score late in games and and, you know, sort of carry that momentum. Those those vibes are really good. Once they get going. On the other side of that is the you know is is there.Is the starting rotation and the bullpen sort of masking things that are concerning to you right? Now?. The last time through the rotation, the record was pretty good. The team went five and one prior to yesterday’s game, and the ERA was like 1.87.I think that was heading into the the double header on Tuesday. Just you know that that looked really good, but there’s some underlying numbers that sort of maybe give you a pause for concern.
Paul Hoynes 17:24Yeah, Joe, on this, on this six-game trip, the starters went two and O, but their ERA was 4.91 and and the team obviously went four and two. But when you look at the big picture.At this rotation, I think there’s some reason for concern. You know, through, you know how many games they played? What, 30?.
Joe Noga 17:5337.
Paul Hoynes 17:5430 Yeah, through the through the 37 games they played, they have given up the most walks in the and, and this is the rotation. They’ve given up the most walks in the American League. They have the second highest batting average against.In the American League, they’ve they’ve allowed the third most runs, they’ve allowed the fourth most hits. But when it comes to striking out people get, you know, getting that big strike out the, you know, they they only rank 11th in the American League with 161 strikeouts.So I’m just thinking that they definitely have to get some more length out of this rotation. They’ve got to get more innings out of the rotation or they’re going to fry this bullpen, Joe. And I think we’re starting to see some signs of that we saw with Cade Smith against the Nationals.We’ve seen it a little bit with Hunter Gaddis., So you know, I I think and you know, obviously Emmanuel Class A went through his, you know, his downtime, you know, earlier in this, in this stretch of 2022 games. So you know, it’s a red flag to me.
Joe Noga 19:06Yeah, you’re not always going to have the the sort of comeback wins where you get those eight run innings and you’ve got a four run lead and you have the luxury of letting the bullpen, you know, play with a couple of runs there. Some of these games are going to be a little tighter and they’re going to need that sort of lockdown feeling.A late in the game, you know they take the lead in the 7th and then the the bullpen doesn’t. Doesn’t take their foot off of the other team’s, you know, throat., I think that’s it’s a it’s a big area of concern right now is is just the the the confidence level that the teams all vote the team is.Always going to say they’re, they’re confident in the guys that are coming in out of the bullpen, but at some point now it just feels like you’re on a little bit of a roller coaster. Over the last couple of weeks., A lot of that has to do with the the number of games they’ve played in a in a three-week span.But and the competition that they’re playing, but we’ll see how things, you know, change. They get home, they get a little bit of rest. And of course the Phillies, one of the better teams in the National League, is now coming in for a weekend series at Progressive Field.Field and that should be interesting., Uh.
Paul Hoynes 20:18Yeah, the Phillies are. Yeah, definitely, Joe. The Phillies and Milwaukee are coming in on the six-game home stand, and they’re two of the better teams in the National League. So Cleveland’s going to have its hands full.
Joe Noga 20:32Yeah, for sure. I wanted to mention before we we get going here. Chase de Lauder, the Guardians #2 ranked prospect according to MLB Pipeline back on the field 7-8 weeks after sports hernia surgery. He is out playing in games in the Arizona Complex.League. It’s a more controlled environment. Before he, you know, takes a rehab assignment or any heads over to an affiliate. We’re figuring that he’s going to head to AAA Columbus when he’s ready, but that could be a few more weeks. He’s out there taking live batting practice.And working out with guys like Shane Bieber and Trevor Stefan, who are apparently, according to Mike Chernoff, Chase de Lauder, hit a couple of home runs in a live batting practice session against guys like Bieber and Stefan, who are rehabbing from elbow surgery.Wouldn’t say who he hit. The home runs off of, or how many,. But we know that he’s having success out there so far in his progression towards returning to minor league games, a possibility that he could be an option to come and help this team at some point late in the season.Bieber and Stephan, obviously, along with David Frye, making progress out there as well. And we found out that Tristan McKenzie, who’s on the development list for AAA Columbus, he is continuing to work out in the Arizona facility and he will be building up.To become, to come back and become an option as a starter after spending the first part of this season in the bullpen for Cleveland. So your thoughts on what’s going on out there in Arizona with the water and McKenzie and everybody out there.
Paul Hoynes 22:24I hope they wrapped the Lauder and Bubble wrap, Joe, after every at bat so he can stay healthy. This poor guy just can’t catch a break because when he’s on the field, he’s he’s a dynamic player. He’s really, really talented and he’s just has to stay healthy and hopefully he’s got all the injuries behind him.And he can, you know, progress through the Arizona Complex, League, get to AAA, have a good start. There, get his feet on the ground and then come up and help the Guardians.
Joe Noga 22:55That would be a tremendous addition in the outfield somewhere with Chase de Lauder. OK, Wayne, that’s going to wrap up today’s edition of the Cleveland Baseball Talk Podcast. We will check back in with you and preview the Philly series. Our old friend Kyle Schwarber, coming to town. Is that a possibility there?. We’ll see.As as we get into tomorrow, here on the podcast.
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