Cleveland Sports Forum

Santana returning to Guards (sources); Josh Naylor traded to D-backs

By Mandy Bell @MandyBell02

December 21, 2024

Another staple in the Guardians lineup is on the move, but another one is coming home.

First baseman Josh Naylor has been traded to the Diamondbacks in exchange for righty pitcher Slade Cecconi and Arizona’s 2025 Competitive Balance Round B pick, the team announced on Saturday.

Shop for Guardians gear for the holidays
After the trade, the Guardians then signed free-agent first baseman Carlos Santana for a one-year, $12 million contract, sources told MLB.com.

TRADE DETAILS

Guardians acquire: RHP Slade Cecconi, Competitive Balance Round B Draft pick
D-backs acquire: 1B Josh Naylor

The trade isn’t overwhelmingly shocking considering Naylor’s name has popped up in trade rumors all offseason. But the Guardians are trying to make sure that 2025 is even more successful than '24. That means the return has to be enough to offset a potential 30-homer bat.






At first, that was up in the air when the team had only added Cecconi. He split last season between Triple-A and the Majors. In 20 games (13 starts) with the D-backs, he pitched to a 6.66 ERA with 64 strikeouts and 17 walks in 77 innings. In Triple-A, he owned a 3.06 ERA in 18 games (five starts), ending the season with 9 2/3 hitless innings.

But moments later, the Guardians added a familiar face in Santana. MLB Trade Rumors projected that Naylor would make $12 million in his last year of arbitration this winter. That money went straight to signing free agent Santana.

Santana is entering his 16th Major League season. Eleven of those will be spent with Cleveland. In his previous 10 seasons with the Guardians, Santana hit .251 with an .818 OPS and 216 home runs. Even though he’ll be 39 years old in April, his power hasn’t waned. In each of the last two seasons with the Twins, Brewers and Pirates, Santana hit more than 20 homers.

Naylor has provided depth in the Guardians’ lineup behind José Ramírez for the last few years. He emerged as an All-Star caliber player in '23 with a standout season, hitting .308 with an .842 OPS. His production wasn’t as consistent in '24, but his threat in the lineup played a huge part in Cleveland’s success. Now that will be up to Santana to fill.

Santana will be able to play first base, alongside Kyle Manzardo, who had a strong second trip to the Majors at the end of last season to show he’s ready for the big stage.

SANTANA GOLD GLOVE HIGHTLIGHTS / SLADE CICCONI VIDEO

https://www.mlb.com/guardians/news/carl ... -guardians

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I often thought of Naylor last year as a Big Papa kind of player. When he was with Minnesota he was OK but when he went to Boston he was great. Who did the Twins get for Ortez, or was that a free agent move.
I don't think I will miss him.

Arizona's pitching in general was a mess last year and the pitching coach was fired

Here is an article on what needs to change, Maybe the Guardians can help Cecconi's fastball shape --

The charts are interesting but do not copy so here is a link https://www.azsnakepit.com/2024/10/8/24 ... s-pitching

A New Plan for Diamondbacks Pitching
It could arrive with the new pitching coach.

By Makakilo Oct 8, 2024, 2:00pm EDT 2 Comments / 2 New
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Up Next - Max Fried on why he wanted to join the Yankees





Background and Inspiration.
In the last few seasons, the Diamondbacks changed what type of pitcher they acquired. Often, their pitching acquisitions could be described by three metrics, which I presented many times. Those metrics were:

Whiffs/pitch greater than 13%.
Strikeouts per batter faced greater than 25%
Balls-in-play less than 26.5% of strikes thrown.
Perhaps a new emphasis will be placed on induced vertical break on four-seam fastballs. My enthusiasm for the idea was ignited by the first line in an article, “The Red Sox, you might have heard, have largely stopped throwing fastballs,…” Although they did NOT stop throwing fastballs, they threw less fastballs and the ones they threw were better (more vertical movement compared to the movement caused by gravity).

What would a Diamondbacks plan look like? The Red Sox, despite their pitching changes, did not come close to the playoffs. Certainly, the Diamondbacks plan would be different. A simple approach follows. For pitchers who have high velocity AND above average induced vertical break on their four-seam fastballs, their message would be well done and keep going that direction. For pitchers who lack those characteristics AND who frequently throw four-seam fastballs (some Diamondbacks pitchers do not throw many four-seam fastballs), the message would be either increase your induced vertical break, or pitch less of them.

If a new emphasis happens, my writing will often include a new metric: induced vertical break.

Two Assumptions.
The Diamondbacks like having different types of pitchers; and they will NOT attempt to change every pitcher. Instead, those who allow the most home runs and most hits will be their focus.


The Diamondbacks will implement two approaches: one approach for starting pitchers and one approach for relief pitchers. The data led me to conclude that that most important factor was different for the two types of pitchers.

Dividing pitchers into two groups: those to leave alone and those to change.
Because we are looking at induced vertical break, the first group to leave alone are those who were above-average in that measure: Nelson, McGough, Vieira, Mena, Gallen, and Allen.

The next group to think about carefully, and likely leave alone are those with an above-average ERA last season. That adds the following names: Diaz, Ginkel, Jarvis, Kelly, Mantiply, Martinez, Puk, and Thompson.

Let’s look at the remaining pitchers. For each pitcher, their percentage of fastball pitches was compared to their percentage of homers and hits that happened on fastball pitches. That comparison resulted in two groups of pitchers. One group had fewer homers and one group had more homers. Those two groups are shown in the following two tables.


2024 Season. The remaining pitchers whose 4-seam fastballs are not an obvious problem. Data from Baseball Savant.
One conclusion is that better four-seam fastballs may not fix every pitcher, such as Jordan Montgomery. Perhaps some pitchers in the first table can improve in a manner not related to induced vertical break.


2024 Season. Remaining pitchers who could benefit from better 4-seam fastballs. Data from Basebal Savant.
Perhaps pitchers in the second table could benefit from an increased induced vertical break in their 4-seam fastballs.

Relief Pitchers.
To my surprise, something impacted relief pitcher ERA more than induced vertical break. The following table shows that for relief pitchers who throw four-seam fastballs, pitch velocity had a big impact. The impact is shown in the following scatterplot.


2024 Season. Velocity in MPH. Data from Baseball Savant.
The plot indicates when the average velocity falls below a critical speed, the pitcher’s ERA rises quickly.

Starting Pitchers.
For starting pitchers who throw four-seam fastballs, induced vertical break impacted ERA. The impact is shown in the following scatterplot.


2024 Season. IVB in inches. Data from Baseball Savant.
Small changes may be better than big changes.
When comparing 2024 to 2023, starting pitchers who either made a 10% reduction in their percentage of four-seam fastballs, or made any increase in their percentage of four-seam fastballs, had higher ERA than those who did not change (the one exception was Cecconi who made a small 4% reduction and yet had a high ERA). My conclusion is that doing any change except a relatively small reduction in four-seam fastballs worsens the pitcher’s performance. Details are in the following graph.


2024 Season. Data from Baseball Savant.
Which two pitchers had elite IVB?
A hypothesis is that a combination of high velocity and high induced vertical break results in elite pitching. The following chart shows two characteristics of the Diamondbacks pitchers’ four-seam fastballs. Going from left to right, you see three increasing levels of induced vertical break (IVB). Going from bottom to top, you see three increasing levels of velocity.


2024 Season. Data from Baseball Savant.
Interestingly, there were no Diamondbacks pitchers in the middle square. Perhaps that can be explained that instead of being middle of the spectrum for every aspect, a path to success is more often found in excelling in one or more aspects.

Summary.
A new plan for Diamondbacks pitching could focus on induced vertical break for four-seam fastballs.

After excluding pitchers with above-average induced vertical break and excluding pitchers with better-than-average ERAs, the remaining pitchers could be divided into two groups - those to leave alone and those who could benefit from better induced vertical break.

For relief pitchers, average velocity of four-seam fastballs impacted their ERA.

For starting pitchers, induced vertical break impacted their ERA.

Small changes in percentage of four-seam fastballs may be better than large changes.

Last season, two Diamondbacks pitchers had elite induced vertical break - Ryne Nelson and Scott McGough.

New Guardians 1B Compared Favorably To Departing Slugger In 2024


December 22, 2024

By Andres Chavez

The Cleveland Guardians traded first baseman Josh Naylor on Saturday night.

They sent him to the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for young pitcher Slade Cecconi and a high draft pick.

Then, a few minutes later, they announced that they were signing first baseman Carlos Santana to a one-year deal worth a similar salary to the one Naylor was projected to make in his last season of team control.

Over the last three years, Naylor made a sizable impact with the Guardians, particularly at the dish.

His OPS finishes of .842 and .776 in the last two seasons were impressive and gave the lineup some punch.

This past season, he also stayed healthy for the most part and hit 31 home runs with 108 RBI.Many fans are mad because they think the front office made a lateral move or somehow got worse.

But the numbers say otherwise.

“2024 fWAR: Carlos Santana: 3.0, Josh Naylor: 2.3,” Guardians of the Land posted on X.

fWAR is FanGraphs’ version of WAR, or Wins Above Replacement.

It means that the 38-year-old Santana contributed more to his team, the Minnesota Twins, than Naylor to Cleveland.

On top of the difference in value, the Guardians gained a pitching prospect and a valuable draft pick.

Yes, they assume some decline risk by taking on a player who will be 39 next year, but if his recent performance is any indication, Santana should be just fine on a one-year deal.

He will be a perfect mentor to Kyle Manzardo, Jhonkensy Noel and other first base options.

Overall, it was a good series of moves by president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti.

<

Guardians Fail Miserably in Disheartening Josh Naylor Trade

The Cleveland Guardians traded Josh Naylor to the Arizona Diamondbacks for a rather skimpy return, which makes you wonder exactly what they were thinking.

Matthew Schmidt | 5 Hours Ago

The Cleveland Guardians have officially said goodbye to first baseman Josh Naylor, trading him to the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for pitcher Slade Cecconi.

It's no surprise that the Guardians traded Naylor. Rumors swirled about Naylor's availability since the beginning of the offseason, as the 27-year-old is set to hit free agency after next season.

Cleveland's modus operand is to keep low payrolls and not sign players to long-term deals. With the exception of Jose Ramirez, the Guardians have mostly held true to that mantra.

But typically, Cleveland manages to land good returns in the deals it makes.

This time, however, the Guardians' haul was, uh, lackluster, to say the least.

Cecconi is 25 years old and made 20 appearances and 13 starts for the Diamondbacks in 2024. He went 2-7 with a 6.66 ERA (how's that for a bad omen?) while allowing 92 hits and registering just 64 strikeouts ove 77 innings of work.

He posted a 5.02 FIP, surrendered 16 home runs and logged a 1.416 WHIP.

There was absolutely nothing impressive about Cecconi's numbers this past year, whether it be from a traditional or peripheral perspective.

To make matters worse, the Oviedo, Fl. native has not exactly been stellar in the minor leagues either, as he lays claim to a lifetime 4.73 ERA in the minors.

So what exactly about Cecconi convinced the Guardians to trade Naylor for him? Heck, Cleveland managed to get a better return for Spencer Horwitz than it got for Naylor.

It just doesn't make any sense.

Let's put aside the fact that the Guardians just traded one of their best hitters immediately after making it to the ALCS for a minute. You're saying no one was willing to give them a better package than this? For an All-Star who just hit 31 home runs with 108 RBI?

I get that Cleveland instantly reunited with Carlos Santana to man first base after moving Naylor. So, yes: the Guardians found his replacement. But it was only on a one-year deal. Why didn't they just give Naylor one more season if they were going to trade him for virtually nothing anyway?

Maybe Cecconi will find his way in Cleveland and establish himself as a legitimate piece. We've seen the Guardians work wonders with pitchers before.

But you just can't help but feel that Cleveland dropped the ball here.

Guardians fans certainly aren't shocked that the Guardians dealt Naylor. They were surely bracing for it since they were eliminated from the playoffs. But they almost definitely expected a better return.

<

I have to admit that I am also very confused. In light of the Luzardo news, why would we trade trade Naylor for next to nothing? We trade Naylor for Cecconi but pass on an valuable asset like Luzardo (and under team control for 2 years). Who knows when or even if Cecconi will make a serviceable starter here. You have Luzardo with the experience and could have been a #1 or #2 starter on this staff. It really doesn't make much sense. I can't believe that we could not top the Phillies prospect offer. I can't believe that Cecconi is the best we could do for Naylor.

This brings me to my next question. WHAT WERE THEY THINKING?

<

Luzardo has been injured and not that good when healthy. What did he get traded for ? Very little.

That's my point. Very little.
Low risk, high reward.
Two years under management control
Perfect conditions for this organization.
Luzardo would have been the perfect bridge to Bieber and hopefully beyond.
I think they just blew it on this one.

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I went through Cecconi's game log for the Dbacks in 2024. He started out quite well in April but most of the rest of the season wet downhill. Several very effective starts so I guess he can, at times, be good.

His history as a prospect:
2021 No. 6 for the Dbacks
2022 No. 12
2023 No. 14
2024 No. 16
Ever upward.

MLB notes: Carlos Santana sold his Cleveland area house. A day later, the Guardians invited him home CLEVELAND, OH - SEPTEMBER 10: Carlos Santana #41 of the Cleveland Indians forces out Whit Merrifield #15 of the Kansas City Royals during the seventh inning at Progressive Field on September 10, 2020 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Royals defeated the Indians 11-1. (Photo by Ron Schwane/Getty Images)
By Ken Rosenthal
6h ago


The house in Bratenahl, Ohio, a suburb of Cleveland, had special meaning for Carlos Santana and his wife, Brittany. It was the first home Santana, a native of the Dominican Republic, purchased in the United States, back in 2012 after he signed his first multi-year deal. All four of the Santanas’ children were born in the Cleveland area.

Sentiment, though, goes only so far.

Last Monday, thinking he would never play in Cleveland again, Santana instructed a realtor to put the house on the market. A buyer quickly emerged. On Thursday, Santana signed papers completing the sale. And on Friday, as luck would have it, guess who called for the first time?

The Guardians, of course.

Santana, 38, played for Cleveland from 2010 to ‘17, and again in 2019 and ‘20. That night, he met in his Tampa apartment with his agent, Ulises Cabrera of Octagon, until 2 a.m., weighing final offers. The Seattle Mariners, Santana’s team in 2022, sought to reunite with him virtually the entire offseason, and were pushing for a resolution. Santana said both New York teams, Detroit and Arizona also were in the mix, while San Diego and Texas had asked him to wait.

The Mariners, according to sources briefed on the discussions, offered Santana a one-year deal with a player option for a second season, an extraordinary bid for a first baseman entering his age-39 season. But even though Santana’s home in Bratenahl was gone, he could not stay away.

On Saturday morning, he flew to Cleveland to retrieve some personal belongings from the house. Later that day, he agreed to a one-year, $12 million contract with the Guardians, turning down more guaranteed money from the Mariners, according to a source. His return to Cleveland only became possible when the Guardians recognized they could trade first baseman Josh Naylor to the Diamondbacks, a deal that transpired the same day.

“I cannot believe it,” Santana said. “It’s crazy.”

The 2025 season will be Santana’s 16th in the majors. He is coming off a year in which he produced a .749 OPS with the Minnesota Twins, his highest since 2019, and won his first Gold Glove. If he passes his physical on Monday, his $12 million salary will more than double the $5.25 million he earned last season. His deal also includes $1 million in incentives.

The Mariners, Santana said, were his initial priority. Seattle star Julio Rodríguez is one of his best friends, and pushed for him to return. But Santana first joined the Cleveland organization at the 2008 deadline, in a trade from the Los Angeles Dodgers for third baseman Casey Blake. He is beloved in both the clubhouse and community, and it is not out of the question he will one day enter the team’s Hall of Fame.

“I’m so happy coming back,” Santana said. “Cleveland has my respect. The fan base is one of the best. The coaching staff, they know me. Sandy Alomar, I’ve known him for a long time. I know (top executives) Chris (Antonetti) and Mike Chernoff. I know the owner, (Paul) Dolan. I have very good relationships with everyone in the office, in the organization. They love me, and I love it. I’m very excited.”

Santana’s family lives mostly in Kansas City, where he played in 2021-22. He also keeps a residence in Tampa so he can train in the winter. Yet for more than a decade, he held onto the house in Bratenahl, declining to sell it even after signing a three-year, $60 million free-agent contract with the Philadelphia Phillies in Dec. 2017.

A year later, the Phillies dealt him to the Mariners, and 10 days after that the Mariners sent him back to Cleveland. That, too, was a wild story. Santana had been planing to rent the Ohio home to his good friend, Edwin Encarnación – until Seattle and Cleveland traded them for each other.

Now Santana needs to find a new place in Cleveland, but compared to his final 24 hours as a free agent, that task will be relatively simple. His whirlwind through the open market, following his spin through the housing market, ended in a place he never thought he would never again call home.
Explaining the Guardians’ latest moves

Both teams that reached the American League Championship Series will open the season with new first and second basemen. The New York Yankees are simply replacing departing free agents. The Guardians’ moves were more jarring, but typical of the roster roulette low-revenue teams play.

The trade of Andrés Giménez to the Toronto Blue Jays enabled the Guardians to escape the remaining five years and $96.5 million on the second baseman’s contract. The trade of Naylor to the Arizona Diamondbacks, in combination with the Santana agreement, left the Guardians with a similar one-year financial commitment at first base, plus right-hander Slade Cecconi and the No. 72 overall pick in the 2025 draft. Cleveland now holds the 27th, 66th, 70th and 72nd selections.

Naylor, 27, is 11 years younger than Santana, and almost certainly would have departed as a free agent at the end of the 2025 season. Santana, thanks in part to his Gold Glove defense, produced the higher fWAR last season (3.0-2.3). As one of the team’s most beloved players in recent memory, he again will be a strong presence in the clubhouse, if less emotional than Naylor.

Cecconi, 25, was the 33rd overall pick out of the University of Miami in the 2020 draft, but has yet to establish himself in the majors, finishing last season with a 6.66 ERA in 77 innings. The Guardians are not sure whether he will start or relieve but believe he might benefit from working with their pitching group and competing in better pitchers’ parks than he did at Triple-A Reno and in Arizona. According to Statcast’s Park Factor, Chase Field was the second-most run-friendly environment in the majors last season, behind only Coors Field.

The Guardians have spent much of their offseason adding pitching, previously re-signing free-agent right-hander Shane Bieber to a two-year, $26 million contract, and acquiring righty Luis L. Ortiz as well as pitching prospects Josh Hartle and Michael Kennedy for infielder Spencer Horwitz. They also traded relievers Eli Morgan to the Chicago Cubs and Nick Sandlin to the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Nationals and Rangers have swung a one-for-one trade that will see first baseman Nathaniel Lowe head to Washington in exchange for left-hander Robert Garcia.

This is virtually the same trade Cleveland made with Naylor. (Except perhaps Lowe better than Naylor.) Veteran 1B for young arm.

Garcia is a reliever, a lefty and was not as ineffective as Cecconi,, but yeah, basically a young unproven pitcher for an established 1B who'll be making 8 figures

Guardians Say ‘Happy Holidays’ To Fans With Must-See Video


December 23, 2024

By Andres Chavez

The Cleveland Guardians had a 2024 to remember.

They achieved some great things and invited an entire city to dream, reaching the American League Championship Series and challenging the New York Yankees for the junior circuit’s pennant.

They did it with the support of the most passionate fans along the way, as Progressive Field was consistently packed in the stretch run and playoffs.

Then, the organization is off to a very solid start of the off-season, wishing to replicate their 2024 success in 2025.

They are moving forward with a smile on their faces, and so are fans, because 2024 was amazing.

The team posted a cool video wishing everybody a happy holiday season, including some of the best and most exciting moments of the year.

“So many good memories in 2024, and we can’t wait until 2025! Wishing you and yours a happy and safe holiday season,” the Guardians posted on X.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1871239349163180446


Yes, the Guardians fell just short of their goal, but it’s safe to say that 2024 exceeded preseason expectations by a considerable margin.

Progressive Field was rocking in October, and those memories will last forever in the minds and hearts of those who enjoyed the moment.

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Of course, it wasn’t all words: they posted a video of those memories they built this past campaign.

The Lane Thomas grand slam in Game 5 of the American League Division Series against the Detroit Tigers, Jhonkensy Noel’s game-tying ALCS blast vs. the Yankees, David Fry’s walk-off homer in the same contest, and several other plays that fans won’t forget.

Guardians Infielder Trains Ahead Of Pivotal Season


December 24, 2024

By Andres Chavez

Even though Andrés Giménez is not in the picture anymore after his trade to the Toronto Blue Jays, Cleveland Guardians shortstop Brayan Rocchio knows he is entering a pivotal year for his future on the team.

After the brutal season he had with the bat, the Guardians need to see him hitting to really own the fact he will be their starting shortstop for years to come.

So far, they are not there yet.

The Guards have many quality infield prospects to just commit to Rocchio: they have Angel Genao in the low minors and Juan Brito and Angel Martinez close to the majors, not to mention future second baseman Travis Bazzana and others of note.

Knowing he will have to enjoy an offensive resurgence in 2025, Rocchio has been training for a while.

He was spotted working out in Florida, in preparation for what’s to come.

“Cleveland #Guardians 23yr old switch-hitting (SS) Brayan Rocchio training down at Symmetry Performance down in Florida,” Guardians Prospective posted on X.

The talented defensive shortstop earned a Gold Glove nomination in 2024.

Offensively, however, he was subpar.

He posted a .206 batting average and a .614 OPS, one of the worst marks in MLB among regulars.

If we go to the minor league numbers, we all know Rocchio is capable of much more.

At least he gave a very good impression in the postseason, where he finished with a .906 OPS and helped take Cleveland to the American League Championship Series.

Now, he will be playing for his future in the franchise.

The stakes are high and he is making sure to prepare himself.

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Guardians Insider Discusses Projected Lineup After Recent Moves


December 23, 2024

By Andres Chavez

The Cleveland Guardians have made a series of moves in recent days.

They traded starting second baseman Andrés Giménez and then slugging first baseman Josh Naylor.

Then, they signed Carlos Santana to take Naylor’s spot on the field and in the lineup.

It might seem like lateral moves to some, but those ‘lateral moves’ left the offense about the same as it was in 2024, if not slightly better, and brought in two starting pitchers (Luis L. Ortiz and Slade Cecconi) plus multiple prospects.

How about the Guardians lineup right now? Well, analyst Jensen Lewis went through it and it looks promising.

“1. Kwan – LF, 2. Thomas – CF, 3. Ramirez – 3B, 4. Noel – RF, 5. Manzardo – DH, 6. Santana – 1B, 7. Rocchio – SS, 8. Brito/A.Martinez – 2B, 9. Naylor – C,” he posted on X.

AMENDED w/ the report of Carlos Santana signing back..

1. Kwan - LF
2. Thomas - CF
3. Ramirez - 3B
4. Noel - RF
5. Manzardo - DH
6. Santana - 1B
7. Rocchio - SS
8. Brito/A.Martinez - 2B
9. Naylor - C

Of course losing Naylor’s 31 home runs, 108 RBI and .776 OPS hurts, but Cleveland showed a key weakness in the postseason: getting on base.

The hope is that Juan Brito and Angel Martinez, whoever wins the second base gig, can provide a higher OBP than Giménez.

That’s not only possible, but also likely given that Giménez checked in at .298 in 2024.

Naylor and Santana are pretty much comparable: the former has more power at this stage of their careers, but Santana posted a .328 OBP to Naylor’s .320 and his .748 OPS is not that far from that of the recently traded slugger.

Santana is also a much, much better defender at first base, so much that he yielded a superior fWAR than Naylor (3.0 to 2.3).

To hit its ceiling, however, this lineup will need steps forward from their young guys: Jhonkensy Noel, Chase DeLauter if he gets the chance to play, and Brito/Martinez.

It’s a solid unit with considerable potential, though.