Cleveland Sports Forum

Stephen Vogt’s Game 3 decisions didn’t pan out for Guardians. Now they face elimination DETROIT, MICHIGAN - OCTOBER 09: Manager Stephen Vogt #12 of the Cleveland Guardians looks on from the dugout in the first inning against the Detroit Tigers during Game Three of the Division Series at Comerica Park on October 09, 2024 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)
By Zack Meisel
10m ago



DETROIT — There are managerial decisions that live on in infamy and others that live on in glory. There’s a fine line between the two.

Twenty-one-year-old Jaret Wright earning the start in Game 7 of the 1997 World Series in lieu of veteran Charles Nagy. Ryan Merritt stepping out of his cowboy boots and onto the mound in the clinching game of the American League Championship Series in 2016. Michael Martinez replacing Coco Crisp in the outfield in Game 7 of the 2016 World Series and then winding up at the plate as history hinged on his half-maroon, half-white Victus bat. Trevor Bauer pitching on short rest in the American League Division Series a year later, despite Cleveland boasting a loaded rotation. Aaron Civale starting the decisive game in the 2022 ALDS at Yankee Stadium, a move that backfired four batters in with one, mighty Giancarlo Stanton hack.

Stephen Vogt’s choice to pinch-hit in the second inning, and again in the third inning, in Game 3 of the ALDS on Wednesday might not match the gravity of the most consequential managerial decisions in Cleveland’s October lore.

But the Guardians’ approach to combatting the Detroit Tigers’ pitching chaos flopped. And now the team that hasn’t won a playoff game in which it was facing elimination since Game 6 of the 1997 World Series, a mere 9,847 days ago, is… facing elimination.

The best way to halt Detroit’s conga line of relievers is, simply, to hit. The Guardians erupted for five runs before the Tigers recorded an out in Game 1. By that point, A.J. Hinch’s plan was foiled and the Guardians could cruise to victory. But Hinch had the Guardians on the defensive in Game 3.

Vogt and several Guardians hitters said after the loss that they were ready for early mixing and matching, but were they ready for a second-inning switcheroo? Hinch texted Vogt after the teams worked out at Comerica Park on Tuesday afternoon to relay that Keider Montero would start. Of course, he didn’t tip his hand as to whether that meant Montero would pitch for three outs or three innings or three hours. Montero didn’t even know he’d only pitch one frame.

Montero tossed 6 1/3 scoreless innings against Cleveland on July 8, in his third big-league start.

In Game 3, he lasted six pitches.

“We kind of knew that was what they were going to do,” Vogt said, “but we had to combat for Montero going.”

In doing that, the Guardians trotted out a left-handed-heavy lineup, with Kyle Manzardo batting second and Will Brennan batting seventh. Manzardo grounded out in the first inning. That was his only at-bat. Brennan never dug his cleats into the batter’s box.
Will Brennan, who was introduced as part of Cleveland’s starting lineup, never took an at-bat. (David Reginek / Imagn Images)

The Tigers went to the bullpen in the second inning and the Guardians went to the craps table.

“We thought that was the opportunity to take our shot,” Vogt said. “Placed some bets, and then just didn’t come through.”

Brennan’s day consisted of one inning patrolling right field at a raucous ballpark. He gathered Parker Meadows’ leadoff single and backed up a few balls hit toward center fielder Lane Thomas. Then, he cheered on his teammates from the dugout for the rest of the game. Jhonkensy Noel, who replaced Brennan at the plate in the second inning, went 0-for-4.

David Fry batted for Manzardo in the third inning. He went 0-for-3 with a pair of strikeouts and a lineout. All three of his at-bats came with runners in scoring position.

As the game unfolded, the Tigers gained the upper hand from a matchup standpoint. Twice, Fry faced a righty, as the Tigers would prefer. They used six pitchers, alternating between handedness each time Hinch visited the mound. Hinch said it wasn’t scripted this way, but it worked “almost perfectly.”

“When you’re playing from behind,” Vogt said, “the other team has the opportunity to get you handcuffed. Outside of maybe a couple at-bats, I felt like we had the advantage in almost every situation today. We had traffic going. I thought we did a great job setting the table. We just weren’t able to come up with a big hit.”

They’ll have to counteract the pitching chaos again in Game 4, and they’re now riding a streak of 20 consecutive scoreless innings. Hinch noted how the Tigers can throw “a 6-foot-6 lefty all the way to some fireball right-handers to (Tyler) Holton throwing backdoor cutters to (Beau) Brieske throwing turbo sinkers and changeups.”

Steven Kwan, a rare bright spot in the Guardians’ lineup, said that it makes it “hard to get into a rhythm. … You don’t know how his stuff’s going to be, how it’s moving that day. You kind of just have to go on the fly.” Kwan had three hits on Wednesday, and Brayan Rocchio reached twice in front of him, but Fry and José Ramírez, the next two in the order, went hitless in six at-bats.

Guardians hitters lamented the lack of a timely hit and the magnification of small sample sizes in the playoffs, but a team output of 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position, as they mustered in Game 3, can doom an entire season. That’s the way the playoffs go, which is why every managerial chess move can lead to splendor or shame.

Now the Guardians sit on the brink of winter, with another serving of Tigers chaos on deck, and another batch of decisions for Vogt to mull.

Rookie mistakes.

AJ Hinch is a veteran and he's in the zone finding what works best with his team this year.

Vogt ....lesson learned. I hope.

Great win - now hope Skubal gets the flu!

or a home plate umpire that does not call low strikes !

David Fry’s heroics for the Cleveland Guardians are a script made for October DETROIT, MICHIGAN - OCTOBER 10: David Fry #6 of the Cleveland Guardians celebrates a two run home run during the seventh inning against the Detroit Tigers during Game Four of the Division Series at Comerica Park on October 10, 2024 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Duane Burleson/Getty Images)
By Zack Meisel
Oct 10, 2024



DETROIT — As the Cleveland Guardians took batting practice Thursday afternoon, first-base coach Sandy Alomar Jr. recounted the most gut-wrenching moments of his career, the heartbreaks that have cost him sleep and kept him hungry.

There was the blown series lead against the New York Yankees — no, not that one. One of the other ones. There was the World Series collapse against the Chicago Cubs, along with the late-inning meltdown against the Florida Marlins. Cleveland’s baseball outfit had gone 9,848 days since its last postseason victory when staring down elimination, with “so many devastating losses” in between, as Alomar detailed.

Not since Oct. 25, 1997, when Chad Ogea emerged as a World Series MVP candidate and Omar Vizquel preserved a lead with a diving stop in the outfield grass, had Cleveland staved off an earlier-than-desired arrival of winter. And Alomar has donned a Cleveland uniform for almost all of it.

“We have to plow the door down,” he said Thursday afternoon, “instead of knocking.”

Four hours later, David Fry high-fived Alomar as he rounded first base, his momentum-shifting, series-saving, visitors-dugout-quaking home run — the first go-ahead, pinch hit blast in franchise history — having disappeared into the Detroit Tigers’ bullpen.

And then Fry blacked out.

October can elevate anyone into the role of hero. The madness of the postseason can scoop up a nationally anonymous part-timer and spit him out as a household name.

No one knows that fate better than Rajai Davis, who has attended every game of the series as a senior director of on-field operations for the league. With one triumphant, choked-up swing against Aroldis Chapman eight postseasons ago, he morphed from journeyman outfielder to immortal memory-maker in every home from Vermillion to Ashtabula. He never tires of talking about his Game 7 score-tying shot to the left-field porch, about how he studied his previous encounters with Chapman, about the David vs. Goliath script or about how often his son watches the replay.

Davis was a 38th-round pick from the University of Connecticut at Avery Point and spent 14 years in the majors after contemplating bailing on baseball as a frustrated minor-leaguer who yearned for more opportunities. Even though only two of his seasons came with Cleveland, and even though he posted a mere .653 OPS over those two seasons, that’s where he left his mark as a playoff hero.

So, leave it to the twisted, beautiful, agonizing postseason to add another chapter to Fry’s captivating story.

Thirty-one months ago, Fry was catching a bullpen session in Milwaukee Brewers minor-league camp when team officials informed him he was being traded to Cleveland. This had been brewing for months, but the lockout prevented Milwaukee from finalizing its end of the deal. The Guardians had targeted Fry, but they had to ensure another team didn’t select him in the Rule 5 draft, so Fry’s identity was concealed all winter as a Player To Be Named Later. When the lockout wiped out the draft altogether, the teams completed the deal: Fry to Cleveland in exchange for pitcher J.C. Mejía.

Since joining the Brewers, Mejía has totaled 13 2/3 innings (and 13 earned runs allowed). He has also served an 80-game suspension and a 162-game suspension for failed PED tests. Fry, meanwhile, earned a spot on the American League All-Star team this summer and socked a pinch hit homer to force a decisive Game 5 of the American League Division Series at Progressive Field on Saturday night.

“You dream about it as a kid,” Fry said, “and think about it all the time, and in the offseason when you’re working on stuff. And then it happens, and it goes by really quick.”

For a couple of months this season, Fry was flirting with the top of the OPS leaderboard alongside Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani. He crashed back to earth around the time he started experiencing right elbow soreness. That limited his defensive versatility; in the first half, his ability to shift from catcher to first base or the corner outfield granted manager Stephen Vogt plenty of flexibility in deploying pinch hitters.

As the season unfolded, he fell into a platoon with Kyle Manzardo in the designated hitter spot. Against the Tigers in the ALDS, that presented some challenges. Fry replaced Manzardo at the plate in the third inning of Game 3, then proceeded to go 0-for-3 with two strikeouts and a small village stranded on base.

Vogt was more selective with his pinch hitters in Game 4. He waited until the seventh to summon Fry, preferring a matchup of Fry against a righty over Manzardo against a lefty. When a decision pays dividends, a manager resembles a genius. When it doesn’t, a manager attracts plenty of criticism, especially on this stage.

Fry delivered.

“You just can’t say enough about what David has meant to us this year,” Vogt said.

Steven Kwan, standing on second base and plenty familiar with the spacious terrain in left field, was careful not to react until he was certain the ball traveled past the fence. Hunter Gaddis, a 6-foot-6 mountain, struggled to follow the baseball’s flight path since the dugout railing met his eye level as he sat on the bench. He had to resist releasing too much emotion since he was bound to pitch the bottom of the inning. Josh Naylor, who emerged from the dugout to slide onto the on-deck circle, flung his bat high enough to tickle the clouds.

Fry circled the bases and returned to the frenzied dugout in a blur.

“This is his coming-out party,” catcher Austin Hedges said.
David Fry’s homer wasn’t his only heroic move of the night, as his late bunt also played a key part. (Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)

Two innings later, before Fry strode to the plate with runners on the corners and one out, Vogt asked how confident he was in placing a bunt on the infield grass. Fry, with his typical, self-deprecating wit, replied that he “wasn’t a very good hitter in high school.” In other words, he bunted often, so he was oozing confidence.

Fry executed the bunt, which allowed Brayan Rocchio to race home from third with a pivotal insurance run.

And not only did Fry homer and deliver a squeeze bunt, but he also predicted José Ramírez’s home run in a dugout conversation with Hedges before Ramírez deposited a pitch into the left-field seats.

“I will take all the credit,” Fry joked.

Why not? This was Fry’s night, the night a PTBNL-turned-All-Star rescued his team from elimination, the sort of script made for October.

“A big reason why we’re here right now,” Hedges said, “is because of David Fry.”

MLB changes start time for ALDS Game 5 between Guardians and Tigers to 1:08 p.m. Saturday

Emmanuel Clase's 33 Unearned Runs
The pitcher who is better than anybody in history at suppressing earned runs has allowed a bunch of unearned ones. Does it mean anything?
Sam Miller
Oct 11


I wrote a bit about Emmanuel Clase earlier this week, and talked about Emmanuel Clase on the Windup this week, but there’s one last thing to resolve about Emmanuel Clase—

The most interesting thing about Emmanuel Clase’s B-Ref page is that he has the lowest ERA in history¹, by a lot. His career ERA is 1.67. The next lowest is Mariano Rivera, at 2.21. He’s only thrown 300 innings in his career and he hasn’t had his decline phase yet, but still, that’s extremely interesting and he’s amazing.

The second most interesting thing is less important, but it’s curious and demands explanation. It’s his unearned runs.

If we look at the last one million runs given up in the major leagues—that takes us back to 1975—about 9 percent were unearned. That’s the baseline for normal.

In that span, there were only 42 pitchers for whom at least 15 percent of their runs allowed were unearned. There were only four pitchers for whom 20 percent were unearned. Only two pitchers reached 22 percent. Only one pitcher reached 23 percent, and that pitcher is Emmanuel Clase.

And 37 percent of Emmanuel Clase’s runs are unearned!

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*

You can’t just ignore unearned runs. Consider two pitchers having these innings:

Pitcher A: Out, out, grounder to the first baseman. First baseman biffs it. Next batter strikes out. Inning over.

Pitcher B: Walk, out, walk, out, walk, grounder to the first baseman. First baseman biffs it. Two runs score. Next batter strikes out. Inning over.

Neither pitcher allowed any earned runs, but they obviously didn’t pitch equally in those innings. The one who allowed the unearned runs allowed those runners to reach base; he pitched much worse. A lesser pitcher is more likely to give up unearned runs than a better pitcher is. This is simple stuff.

**

And sometimes it’s even more than that.

Pitcher C: Out, out, grounder to the first baseman. [Inning over.] [Next inning:] Single, double, triple, homer.

Pitcher D: Out, out, grounder to the first baseman, first baseman biffs it. [Inning continues.] Single, double, triple, homer.

Pitcher C allowed four runs, all of them earned. Pitcher D allowed five runs, but none of them is earned, because they all came after the third out supposedly should have been recorded, and nothing after that gets blamed on him. Pitcher C has the worst ERA in baseball (and clearly isn’t very good). Pitcher D has the best ERA in baseball (and clearly isn’t very good.)²

So you can see, sometimes an error lets the pitcher off the hook for all sorts of subsequent awfulness that really had nothing directly to do with the error.

***

So if you see a bunch of unearned runs, you can probably conclude that the pitcher had at least a little bit to do with them, and maybe a lot to do with them, and maybe those unearned runs are actually a sign he’s considerably worse than his ERA. Since Emmanuel Clase’s ERA is of historical significance, we do have to at least look into this.

****

There are three types of unearned runs:

1. Runs that score after a third out should have been made.
2. Runs that score because a baserunner was able to advance further than he should have (including advancing to first base).
3. Zombie runners scoring.

This last one is important. In 2022, MLB permanently implemented the new extra-innings rules, where a free runner starts each inning after the ninth on second base. If that runner comes in to score, it’s charged to the pitcher as a run, but not as an earned run.

For a pitcher like Clase, who is frequently brought in to pitch the 10th inning, this will expose him to a lot of extra unearned runs.

I watched all 33 of Clase’s unearned runs to see how much he’s to blame. Here’s how they break down:

Errors extending innings: 10

Errors allowing runners’ advance: 8

Zombie runners: 15

And here’s what I took away:

1. Zombie runners are doing a ton of the work in the fun fact that starts this piece. Without them, Clase would still have allowed the highest percentage of unearned runs in the past half-century, but more narrowly—only 24 percent of his runs would be unearned—and largely because he allows so few earned runs.

Still, 18 unearned runs at this stage in his career, for a pitcher as great as him, is a lot. Mariano Rivera allowed 25 unearned runs in his entire career, four times as many innings. Billy Wagner allowed 30. Kenley Jansen, 28, and those include his zombie runners scoring. E T C.

2. But generally speaking, Clase’s high rate of unearned runs aren’t obviously revealing some big deficiency that his ERA is obscuring. It’s not as though Clase is falling apart after errors behind him, and it’s definitely not that Clase is like Pitcher D up there, giving up a bunch of long rallies after an inning gets extended. There are some real hard-luck errors behind him, too; a couple of double plays fully botched³, this one bizarre play where Mike Trout scored and then as he was walking back to the dugout kicked the ball away from the catcher, setting up another run. (I don’t think that should be allowed.)

3. But there is one deficiency that shows up: Clase’s own defense has been terrible! He has a .900 fielding percentage in his career. Pitchers leaguewide have a collective .950 fielding percentage, so he makes errors at twice the league rate.

In May this year, he dropped a flip from the first baseman that would have ended the game. Instead it tied the game.

In 2021, he dropped another throw at first base. It would have been an inning-ending double play; instead, the go-ahead run scored.

In 2019, he fumbled a tapper and then threw wildly to first. Instead of ending the inning, it set up another error by his teammate, and two runs scored.

On top of those, there was a play in 2021 where Clase fielded a ball hit back to him and threw wildly to second. For some reason the shortstop wasn’t covering the bag, and the error was given to the shortstop (reasonably; it was a completely befuddling play by the shortstop) but the error could have easily gone to Clase for the throw.

Those four plays by Clase led to five of his unearned runs, and made me appreciate just how close the Tigers came to putting the tying run on base in the ninth inning Thursday:



4. To go back to the zombie runners. Those are unearned runs. But, of course, they don’t have to score. The better you pitch, the less likely it is that they’ll score. And to the degree there is anything Clase has done that is slightly disappointing in his career, it’s let zombies in.

The average zombie runner scores 57 percent of the time. For most relief aces, it’s even lower than that, and if you told me Clase’s rate was half of that I’d consider my expectations met. But in his career, Clase has actually allowed 63 percent of his zombie runners to score. In zombie innings, batters have hit .324/.341/.351 against him.

I don’t think that’s particularly telling (it’s fewer than 100 plate appearances), and I certainly don’t think it’s predictive. But a full accounting of Clase’s performance so far would include it. He has allowed more zombie runners to score than an average pitcher, and significantly more than the rest of his pitching would lead you to expect.

******

So there you go: Emmanuel Clase, the pitcher with the best career ERA of all-time, is a small liability at defense and he has underperformed somewhat in a specific high-leverage situation. These two things have contributed to a statistical quirk on his player page, which further reflects the era he pitches in, but doesn’t cause us to dramatically reevaluate his standing as (so far) one of the greatest relief pitchers in history. Now, when you see that little curiosity on his B-Ref page, you’ll know.
1

Live-ball era, minimum 300 innings
2

And Pitcher E: Out, grounder to the first baseman, first baseman biffs it, single, double, triple, out, homer. Pitcher E allows five runs, but exactly three are earned! It’s a weird system.
3

ERA math undersells the damage of a botched double play, because it treats it as only one lost out rather than two.

Guardians grand slam their way to a Game 5 victory over Tigers, head to ALCS: Takeaways CLEVELAND, OHIO - OCTOBER 12: Lane Thomas #8 of the Cleveland Guardians hits a grand slam during the fifth inning against the Detroit Tigers during Game Five of the Division Series at Progressive Field on October 12, 2024 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)
By Zack Meisel and Cody Stavenhagen
5h ago

108
Save Article

CLEVELAND — Lane Thomas started the ALDS with a three-run homer to the left-field bleachers at Progressive Field in Game 1. He punctuated the series and punched Cleveland’s ticket to the ALCS with a grand slam to a similar spot, which fueled a 7-3 Guardians win in a decisive Game 5.

Thomas, a July trade acquisition turned October hero, broke a 1-1 tie with a frenzy-inducing blast on a 97 mph sinker from Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, who had once again silenced Cleveland’s bats before a nightmarish fifth inning.

The Guardians emerged from a high-tension, in-division battle and will head to Yankee Stadium for a best-of-seven brawl between the top two seeds in the American League. Skubal and a heavy dose of pitching chaos transformed the Tigers from trade deadline sellers into AL juggernauts, but their season ended with a pair of losses to the Guardians that each swung on one well-timed blast to the left-field seats.

Designated hitter David Fry kept Cleveland’s postseason hopes flickering with a two-run shot in the seventh inning of Game 4 at Comerica Park. Thomas supplied the knockout blow in Game 5.

The Guardians loaded the bases with three singles in the fifth, which set up Skubal against José Ramírez in a clash of two of the league’s top stars. Skubal struck Ramírez in the hand with a 99.9-mph fastball, which forced in the tying run. Thomas unloaded on the very next pitch.

Lane Thomas proves the Guardians won the trade

Guardians catcher Austin Hedges stood on the dugout bench, turned toward Thomas and swung his elbows from side to side as a grin spread across his face. After a win, the team plays “Rocky Top” in the clubhouse, a nod to Thomas, a Tennessee native. It started as a way to welcome the midseason trade acquisition to the club. Now, it’s a staple, and it has Cleveland players dancing like wild, never more so than on Saturday afternoon, when Thomas launched his grand slam. Cleveland’s players spilled out of the dugout, some as far as the MLB postseason logo beside the third-base line.

The Guardians traded three prospects to the Washington Nationals for Thomas to help bolster an offensively challenged outfield. Thomas struggled mightily for the first month before returning to form in September. He connected on two of Cleveland’s three biggest swings in the series, with a first-inning, three-run blast in Game 1 and Saturday’s slam.

Tarik Skubal led the Tigers until the wheels finally fell off

For 17 innings of postseason baseball, Skubal looked the part of an ace and a playoff hero. Then came Steven Kwan, a dribbler, a hit-by-pitch and one mistake that changed everything. Skubal pitched another gem through the first four innings Saturday in Cleveland. The fifth inning unraveled. His center-cut sinker to Thomas — his first real mistake of the entire postseason — doomed him.
go-deeper

GO DEEPER

Guardians' Lane Thomas hits grand slam off Tarik Skubal in Game 5

If the Tigers had to lose, they can take some solace in losing like this. Their ace on the mound. Another teeth-grinding game. One pitch and four runs. Skubal’s mistake may have been the difference between the ALCS and elimination, between New York and vacation. The Tigers can still enter the winter knowing they have the best pitcher in baseball. He helped carry them further than they were ever supposed to go. As Beau Brieske said after his own crushing mistake in Game 4, “That’s the beauty and the beast of this game.”
Cleveland skipper Stephen Vogt pieced together nine innings with eight pitchers

Matthew Boyd started a winner-take-all game against his former team in a storybook script. He struck out five and threw the fastest heater (94.9 mph) he’s tossed since June 2021. But Vogt turned to his trusted bullpen in the third inning, limiting Boyd to one turn through the Tigers’ order.
go-deeper

GO DEEPER

For Tarik Skubal and Matthew Boyd, ALDS Game 2 is more than just a meeting between rivals

Cade Smith and Tim Herrin became the first Cleveland pitchers to ever appear in all five games of a Division Series. Smith’s 12 strikeouts in the series are the most by a reliever in MLB Division Series history. Erik Sabrowski and Andrew Walters, who were pitching for Triple-A Columbus two months ago, entered the most pressure-packed games of their lives. Walters allowed the game’s first run, but Herrin bailed him out with a double play before Cleveland’s offense unloaded in the bottom of the fifth. Eli Morgan relieved Hunter Gaddis in the seventh and recorded a couple of strikeouts to end a Tigers rally.

Prior to game time, listening to WTAM, point was made on effective Skubar was on 4 days rest vs 5 days rest. Point made that he almost was an average pitcher.

I also think seeing him twice in a 5 game series helped.

Part of an article:


The great version of Steven Kwan is back for the Guardians

On June 19, Steven Kwan, the Guardians’ lithe left fielder, collected two hits and raised his batting average to .397. The scorching, Ichiro-esque pace was one reason the Guardians sprinted out to a 51-26 record, building enough cushion to hold off the field in the AL Central. Kwan would go on to bat .352 during the first half before a precipitous fall after the All-Star break. He hit just .206 in the second half, a decline that might have been caused, in part, by back soreness that eventually landed him on the injured list in September.

Well, guess what: It looks like the rest did Kwan some good. Because he’s back to being a terror at the plate.

Kwan finished 11-for-21 (.524) against the Detroit Tigers in the American League Division Series, coming one hit short of matching the aforementioned Ichiro Suzuki and Edgar Martinez for the most hits in one ALDS. He had three hits in Game 5, including one during a five-run fifth inning against Tarik Skubal. He also scored six runs across five games. He was everywhere.

We know about the historic nature of the Guardians bullpen. We also know about José Ramírez, who has been so criminally underrated for so many years that, well, he’s probably just about properly rated among baseball fans at this point. But if Kwan is going to keep going wild at the plate, that’s something to bookmark. After handling the red-hot Tigers, the Guardians suddenly look more like the team that put the American League on notice in the first half. That’s a team that could give the Yankees trouble in the ALCS. — Rustin Dodd

Both Cy Young-worthy pitchers lost games on big homers. No one is perfect.

For Guardians’ Joey Cantillo, an unsettling wild welcome to the ALCS NEW YORK, NY - OCTOBER 14: Joey Cantillo #54 of the Cleveland Guardians retires during Game 1 of the ALCS presented by loanDepot between the Cleveland Guardians and the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on Monday, October 14, 2024 in New York, New York. (Photo by Dustin Satloff/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
By Tyler Kepner
5h ago

NEW YORK — It’s a name you almost tremble to type. But there it is, the answer to the question of the night from Game 1 of the American League Championship Series at Yankee Stadium: had any other pitcher — before Joey Cantillo of the Cleveland Guardians — ever served up four wild pitches in a postseason game?

Yes, just one: Rick Ankiel.

That was two dozen years ago, in a different playoff series opener, and Ankiel, a talented young lefty for the St. Louis Cardinals, actually let loose five wild pitches. His career as an effective pitcher ended abruptly with that sudden, sad spectacle.

So what do we make of Cantillo, a 24-year-old lefty who unraveled in the Guardians’ 5-2 loss to the Yankees on Monday? The first reliever summoned in this series from the majors’ best bullpen, Cantillo faced four batters, walking three and allowing those four wild pitches.

When Cantillo replaced Alex Cobb in the third inning, with the bases loaded and two outs, Cleveland trailed 1-0. One out into the fourth, it was 4-0. Cantillo’s outing was the first in MLB history in which a pitcher issued three walks and four wild pitches while facing no more than four batters.

“That performance was obviously the difference in the game,” Cantillo said. “So that’s on me.”

In his corner of the Cleveland clubhouse, Cobb was having none of it. He had his own control problems in Game 1, walking the bases loaded after Juan Soto’s leadoff homer in that fateful third inning. It was Cobb’s mess that Cantillo was called to clean.

“I talked to him a little bit afterwards; I feel responsible for him even having to be in that position in the first place,” said Cobb, who dealt with back spasms and tightness in his surgically repaired hip.

“He’s got a really good future ahead of him. Going into bases loaded at Yankee Stadium in a playoff game is probably not ideal for anybody to have to go into, so I feel for him there. But he’s going to be fine.”


Cantillo pitches in the third inning of Game 1 of the ALCS against the Yankees. (Brad Penner / Imagn Images)
The Yankees, who led the majors in walks this season, have never started a postseason walking this way. They drew 27 walks in the division series against Kansas City, a club record for the first four games of a postseason. In Game 1 against the Guardians, they walked seven more times, six in the nine-batter stretch that essentially decided the game.

Against Cantillo, they had little choice but to take. He threw 21 pitches, just seven for strikes. His first three pitches, to Anthony Rizzo, were all in the dirt. The first two wild pitches, which both brought in runs, came on fastballs. The next was on a curveball, the last on a changeup.

It was a confounding night for catcher Bo Naylor, too.

“You always look back and think about the things that you could’ve done better,” Naylor said. “A few of them were heaters which, at this level, with heaters of that velocity, you’re just trying to get a glove on it and see if you can get it. I think there was a changeup that got away from me, it just kind of stayed down, got through my legs. But you take as much as you can. You try to move forward and try to make the adjustments.”

The Guardians could take comfort from the circumstances: they’ll use their best starter, Tanner Bibee, in Game 2, with their top relievers — Emmanuel Clase, Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin and Cade Smith — all rested after heavy workloads in the last round.

But Cantillo, possibly in the short term and certainly beyond, must find a way to, well, shake it off. To his credit, he answered every question on Monday and made no excuses, even when offered one.

Were nerves a factor at all, given the stakes and the setting?

“No, not necessarily,” Cantillo said. “I think just coming into that spot, it was my job, obviously, to execute my pitch to each batter. And I fell behind and didn’t make my pitches and then one thing led to another.

“Like I said, my performance was the difference in that game today. So I live with that, and I’m excited to watch all of us get after it tomorrow and the rest of the series.”

The Guardians acquired Cantillo from San Diego in 2020, with first baseman Josh Naylor and three others, in a deal for starter Mike Clevinger. Cantillo, a 16th-round draft choice from a high school in Hawaii in 2017, averaged nearly 12 strikeouts per nine innings before reaching the majors in July.

In nine games (eight starts), he went 2-4 with a 4.89 ERA, then worked a scoreless inning in the division series. The four wild pitches in Game 1 matched Cantillo’s total in 38 2/3 regular-season innings.

“He’s going to be an anchor for years to come,” said Matthew Boyd, a veteran Cleveland starter. “He’s a stud, a starter with four pitches. It just happens; we’re human. But he’ll be completely fine. He’s been so good for us this year. We wouldn’t be here without him.”

Cobb, like Boyd, predicted a long career for Cantillo, praising his accountability, maturity and work ethic. Naylor, the catcher, said he’d be just fine.

“Joey is just not a guy I really worry about in terms of confidence or getting his mind back to the right spot,” Naylor said. “He wants those moments, whether he comes out on the good end or the bad end, and he always looks for new ways to get better. We just (have to) pick him up, let him know that this team’s behind him at all times and let him take care of the rest. He’s got a strong head on his shoulders.”

And, you would hope, a very short memory.

The 2024 Guardians surprised many, except themselves


By Zack Meisel CLEVELAND — The tale of the 2024 Cleveland Guardians traces back to January, when nearly every member of the roster reported a couple weeks early to spring training in Goodyear, Ariz.

It started with Carlos Carrasco settling into a familiar corner locker for a tear-inducing homecoming, with Emmanuel Clase pumping 96-mph heaters in navy gym shorts on a back field and with Stephen Vogt shaking hands while matching names with faces. It started with Austin Hedges leaping out of the chair at his locker to start a “U-S-A” chant when asked if MLB should incorporate the Summer Olympics into its calendar. It started with José Ramírez asking teammates for spare change only to whip out a stack of bills taller than his Marucci bat.

Every team puffs out its chest in the spring and proclaims World Series aspirations. Some of them actually believe it. The Guardians insisted everyone outside of that room was wrong about them. And then their journey to prove it began.

For nearly nine months, the momentum built. The days were long, Vogt would say — as evidenced by his graying beard, his dad would say — but the 162-game slate races by. And then the playoffs arrive.

The month of October saps every ounce of energy from every player or coach or fan who joined at any juncture, whether a midseason addition like Lane Thomas or Matthew Boyd or a skeptic from Fairview Park who refused to buy in until the club recovered from relinquishing its cushy AL Central lead.

Playoff baseball provides highs and lows that make a June matinee seem like a meaningless scrimmage and offers momentum swings that can jeopardize sleep cycles, hairlines and cardiac health. It’s a frantic, anxiety-sponsored ride, and no one would have it any other way.

It’s why Austin Hedges hasn’t been able to shake the first time he heard Gerrit Cole refer to the postseason as “a drug,” especially after Hedges won a World Series with the Texas Rangers a year ago and experienced the euphoria for himself.

Only one team gets to hoist a trophy, however. For those who fall short, the end can come without much warning. The instant Juan Soto squeezed the 30th Cleveland out on Saturday night, the Guardians replaced their strategizing for extra innings and for two games at Yankee Stadium and for the National League pennant winner with plans to clean out their lockers on Sunday morning.
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“It’s gut-wrenching,” Hedges said.

Instead of chest-thumping music, there were whispers of encouragement. Instead of high fives, there were hugs and tears. There were players gripping beer cans while sitting in small circles, either on the carpet or on black leather chairs. There were squeaky shower shoes. There were noisy shipping tape dispensers sealing cardboard boxes bound for Florida, Canada, California, the Dominican Republic or Venezuela.

The finality of a season, Terry Francona used to say — especially a season that lasts into October — is like slamming into a brick wall that wasn’t there a second ago.

Tanner Bibee, his shoulder wrapped and his eyes welling, wasn’t ready to navigate through his thoughts about his valiant start on short rest, his misplaced slider to Giancarlo Stanton, his growth throughout the season, the disappointing conclusion or the team’s feats.

Vogt told the group: “Remember this feeling you have right now, because there’s more left on the table for this group.”

It’s a similar sentiment Francona relayed when the Guardians surprised the masses two years ago and pushed these same Yankees — the ones responsible for Cleveland’s exit in four of their last five trips to the postseason — to the brink in the ALDS. That season wasn’t a springboard to better outcomes, though. The Guardians sputtered in 2023. There are no guarantees, just more spring optimism; some warranted, some manufactured.

Hedges and Steven Kwan pointed out the projections of 70-some wins for the club in 2024. Any team can clutch onto any morsel of doubt to convert into motivation. The questions about the Guardians were valid after a 76-win season, a managerial change and a dormant offseason. They were furthered when a Cy Young-caliber, made-for-October version of Shane Bieber tore his elbow in early April.

But the Guardians never caved. Imagine learning in March that the bullpen would feature Clase and three newcomers pitching the high-leverage innings, or that Daniel Schneemann would bat sixth in a couple of the team’s most pivotal games of the season, or that Boyd, a guy who was coaching 7-year-olds in softball in the Pacific Northwest in the spring while recovering from Tommy John surgery, would wind up a rare, trusted rotation piece when it mattered most.

“The intangibles,” Hedges said, “you can’t measure it. People just can’t understand why we won games, and that fires me up because we know what it is. It’s just a feeling. It’s just something inside of you. Honestly, it’s tough to even describe it. … The only way you can really measure it is wins and losses, and we won a hell of a lot of games this year.”
Guardians fans show their support, despite the Game 5 loss to the Yankees. (Lauren Leigh Bacho / MLB Photos via Getty Images)

That resilience is what made this group so captivating. It’s what convinced fans to pack Progressive Field. It’s what created unforgettable playoff moments, what cemented the names David Fry and Jhonkensy Noel as names that Budweiser-guzzling night owls will recite from their barstools years from now. It’s what has the Guardians declaring they’ll be back, ready to finally vanquish a championship drought that dates to the Truman administration, even though it’s impossible to know, in a game of roster movement and volatile performances, what truly lies ahead.

“Now we know, exactly, the roadmap,” Hedges said. “We know exactly next year what it takes.”

The nine-month journey, the slow burn through the summer in anticipation of an October crescendo, begins soon.

Guardians postmortem: Notes on Shane Bieber, Josh Naylor, Stephen Vogt and more CLEVELAND, OHIO - OCTOBER 19: Manager Stephen Vogt of the Cleveland Guardians walks across the field before Game Five of the American League Championship Series against the New York Yankees at Progressive Field on October 19, 2024 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images)
By Zack Meisel
Oct 22, 2024



CLEVELAND — When Juan Soto squeezed the final out at Progressive Field on Saturday, the New York Yankees spilled out of the visitors dugout to celebrate. In the home dugout, Stephen Vogt froze. He stared ahead, unable to divert his attention from a scene causing him pain.

“I wanted to take it in for a few minutes,” Vogt said, “because I want it next year. That’s never going to stop driving me.”

In Vogt’s first season as Cleveland’s manager, the Guardians won 92 games. They won the AL Central. They advanced to the ALCS. And now?

“We need this to be a building block,” Guardians president Chris Antonetti said. “We want to take a step forward next year.”

Here are a handful of notes stemming from exit interviews with Cleveland’s brass.

The Guardians intend to bring back their entire coaching staff, one year after replacing about half the group following the departure of Terry Francona. That comes with a couple of caveats, though.

Pitching coach Carl Willis mulled retirement last winter, and it wouldn’t be shocking if he again took some time to consider his future. Willis will turn 64 in December. He has worked in the organization for much of the last three decades and is revered for his wealth of experience and knowledge and his embrace of data and technology.

It also wouldn’t be surprising to see bench coach Craig Albernaz land a managerial gig, perhaps the Marlins’ vacancy. Albernaz was a finalist for Cleveland’s job last winter before Vogt, his longtime friend, accepted the position.
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David Fry will visit with Dr. Keith Meister about his right elbow next week in Dallas. Fry injured the elbow in late June, which limited his defensive versatility for the rest of the season. He admitted to The Athletic during the ALCS that if the need arose, he could catch for a couple of innings, but the injury hampered his ability to throw. He caught once in July but never again after July 23. He and the team were vague about the injury, perhaps to preserve a competitive advantage in case they needed him in a pinch. Meister, for what it’s worth, frequently performs Tommy John surgeries.

Both Vogt and Antonetti suggested there’s mutual interest in a reunion with the club’s four free agents: Shane Bieber, Matthew Boyd, Alex Cobb and Austin Hedges. Granted, it’d be more noteworthy if team officials revealed that there isn’t interest at this point in the offseason.

The Bieber situation is a bit complicated, since he’s staring at a midseason return from Tommy John surgery. It’s become common for pitchers under such circumstances to sign a backloaded two-year deal, with the team receiving more value in that second season once the pitcher is fully healthy, and the pitcher rebuilding his value ahead of another shot at free agency.

“We would love to have him back,” general manager Mike Chernoff said. “At the same time, we recognize his status as a free agent and he’s earned the right to explore things. It seemed like there was a mutual interest, but I think we’ll have to have those conversations with him over the course of the winter.”
Shane Bieber made just two starts this season before undergoing Tommy John surgery in April. (D. Ross Cameron / Imagn Images)

Boyd just demonstrated, though, how a pitcher returning from elbow surgery can restore his value in just one season — or, well, in a few months. Boyd’s stellar August, September and October (a 2.72 ERA in eight starts and then an 0.77 ERA in three playoff starts) should set him up to snag a multiyear deal.

“What he did on the mound for us,” Vogt said, “and the stability he brought to our rotation, we needed it at the time and we needed it through the postseason. But the leadership and the person that he is meant more, in the sense of helping those young pitchers and players understand what it takes.”

The Guardians certainly need to bolster their rotation. Outside of Tanner Bibee, there’s not much certainty. Cobb is 37 and coming off an injury-riddled season.

Hedges, 32, stressed he believes he has seven or eight years remaining as a big-leaguer before he shifts into a coaching role, even though he posted a .152/.203/.220 slash line.

“He’s not just the mascot,” Vogt said. “He’s so much more to us than what any outside source can see. He helps us get better. He helped me get better. He challenges the coaching staff, he challenges his teammates.”

Josh Naylor is entering his final year of team control. MLB Trade Rumors projects he’ll earn $12 million in arbitration next season. On one hand, the Guardians shouldn’t be in a hurry to send any productive hitter packing. But they do have Kyle Manzardo ready to handle regular duties at first base, and a player with limited control is always a trade candidate given the way the Guardians operate.

“Our expectation is Josh will be an anchor on our team in 2025 and, who knows, hopefully beyond that,” Antonetti said. “At the same time, he’s a really good player and like any really good player on our roster, I would imagine there will be other teams that will call us and ask about a variety of guys. That’s naturally what happens over the course of the winter.”

Other players eligible for arbitration: Lane Thomas (also his final year of control, but the Guardians desperately need outfielders), James Karinchak (hard to see them bringing him back after his lost season), Triston McKenzie (perhaps no player has a more critical winter ahead of him), Sam Hentges (he’s expected to miss 2025 following shoulder surgery), Ben Lively, Nick Sandlin, Eli Morgan and Steven Kwan (an extension ought to be on the team’s priority list).

Vogt said the most difficult aspect of his first year as manager was navigating through each day.

“It’s busy,” he said. “It’s full. There are no breaks. It’s a long season.”

And there was a ton to learn, especially since he had never served as a coach in the dugout.

“You have to make thousands of decisions,” he said, “and I can handpick five or six that, after you watch the result, you can easily say, ‘Oh yeah, of course, if I could go (back)…’”

Vogt might wind up with an American League Manager of the Year award to show for his first season at the helm. He guided the Guardians far past any internal or external expectations.

“Stephen blew all of those out of the water,” Antonetti said. “What he has been able to contribute as someone who’s new to the job, it’s a marvel to me.”

Antonetti was mesmerized after the Game 5 loss to the Yankees, when a parade of players filtered through the manager’s office “giving him a hug, saying, ‘Thank you,’ and, ‘I love you.’”

“Just to see that,” Antonetti said, “and the bonds he built with individual people was extraordinary.”