Cleveland Sports Forum

Is the Cleveland Guardians’ sizzling start sustainable? CLEVELAND, OH - MAY 08: Cleveland Guardians left fielder Steven Kwan (38), Cleveland Guardians center fielder Will Brennan (17), Cleveland Guardians first baseman Kyle Manzardo (9) and Cleveland Guardians right fielder Estevan Florial (90) celebrate following the Major League Baseball game between the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians on May 8, 2024, at Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH. (Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
By Zack Meisel and Jason Lloyd
5h ago


For a month, the leather chair at Cleveland Guardians pitcher Shane Bieber’s corner locker at Progressive Field has sat empty, aside from when Austin Hedges seeks a quiet spot for a FaceTime call. José Ramírez, uncharacteristically, can’t resist pitches outside the strike zone. Production out of center field, right field, shortstop and catcher has been lacking, and now Steven Kwan, long the American League hits leader, is sidelined for a month. The team is so desperate for starting pitching that one of its top depth options is a soon-to-be-stretched-out Wes Parsons.

And yet, in the face of the adversity and individual underperformance, the Guardians entered their four-game series in Chicago on Thursday night at 24-13.

The question, then, Jason: Is this sustainable?

Jason: You’re trying to get me killed.

I’ll feel a lot better about this team going forward when Gavin Williams is back on the mound and presumably looking like Gavin Williams. I’m far more concerned about the rotation moving forward than Tyler Freeman’s OPS. I can’t remember the last time I was this concerned about a Guardians pitching staff.

Most of it is out of their control with all of the injuries, but a big reason they chose to hang on to Bieber was because they didn’t want to trade him in December, only to turn around in July and have to find another Bieber/front-of-the-rotation type of arm during the deadline’s price-gouging season. They might be right back in that position anyway.

Triston McKenzie has been a tremendous surprise his last couple of turns. I was concerned about him needing elbow surgery, but his fastball velocity is ticking up, his command seems improved and his slow curve is his best pitch. His health still makes him a major question mark, however, at least right now.

Tanner Bibee has gone through some of the common second-year struggles early, but I still have faith in him.

Zack: Bibee, after his most recent outing: “I think it’s mostly me shooting myself in the foot.”

Jason: I’m not sure you can feel good about Williams until you see him on the mound. I thought he would’ve been back three weeks ago. Those are three terrific, talented young pitchers. But then what?

Stephen Vogt has done an incredible job of piecing lineups together, and the bullpen has been terrific. But I worry about the starters holding it together. September is a long time from now.

Zack: Yeah, let’s start with the rotation, a group anchored by staff ace … uh, Ben Lively? This, to me and, I presume, anyone with eyeballs and a functioning Bally Sports stream, is the greatest threat to the Guardians’ bid to contend. We can examine the lineup momentarily, but for this team to survive the summer, it needs a healthy Williams, a capable McKenzie and a sophomore slump-sidestepping Bibee and Logan Allen.

As things stand, how many Guardians starters do you feel confident will offer you six innings each time out?

Jason: Right now? Maybe 1 1/2. Which is higher than the confidence I have in the Bally Sports stream functioning properly.

Zack: It’s not just the loss of Bieber or the absence of Williams; injuries to Daniel Espino and Joey Cantillo really hurt, too. Allen and Carlos Carrasco and everyone else have such a long leash because the only real depth waiting in Triple-A Columbus is Xzavion Curry. This clearly seems like an area for the club to target this summer, but find me a contender that won’t be sniffing around for starting pitching. It’ll be expensive.

Jason: Jesús Luzardo, who is in the early stages of a rehab assignment, would look pretty great in a Guardians jersey, and the Miami Marlins are quite obviously in sell mode. But they’ll be wise to drag this out to the deadline. Trading for him now to beat the market would be exorbitant, just like it will be in July after demand really builds. Who’s to say they’ll deal him this summer anyway?

Zack: Hey, they did trade for a Marlins starting pitcher, though I don’t believe [checks notes] Darren McCaughan is who you had in mind.

Jason: And who are the Guardians going to deal? Most of their war chest of top prospects from a couple of years ago seem to have lost value. Espino certainly has. Is Brayan Rocchio or Gabriel Arias enough to headline a return on a top pitcher? Probably not. What would George Valera fetch? Are you willing to part with Kyle Manzardo or Chase DeLauter for a top pitcher?

Zack: Well, I think this lineup is going to need Manzardo. Imagine a world in which they could dangle the No. 1 overall pick for a haul. (Kidding aside, Charlie Condon or Travis Bazzana will look great in this lineup next summer.)

The issue is, they still need a bunch of answers on offense, too. Rocchio, Arias, Freeman, Will Brennan and Estevan Florial haven’t exactly solved the club’s shortstop and outfield riddles.
José Ramírez is among Guardians hitters not performing at expected levels. (David Richard / USA Today)

Jason: Here are some OPS numbers for the season entering Thursday night: Steven Kwan .903 (yay!), Josh Naylor .900 (pow!) and José Ramírez .718 (meh). Now put on a hard hat and duck: Will Brennan .697, Estevan Florial .669, Andrés Giménez .668, Brayan Rocchio .620, Tyler Freeman .618, Gabriel Arias .609, Bo Naylor .558, Ramon Laureano .530.

Zack: And yet, the Guardians rank eighth in the sport in runs per game. Maybe it doesn’t have to make sense. This team confounds me.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that they have a huge lead on the rest of the league in platoon advantage. They’re trying to win on the margins as much as they can. They’ve hit .293/.382/.460 with runners in scoring position, an OPS in those situations that rates 26 percent better than league average. With two outs and runners in scoring position, they rate 40 percent better than league average.

“We’re down and it’s just like, ‘Yeah, we’re probably going to win tonight,’” David Fry said. “No matter what the score is.”

Those stats will eventually come back to Earth. But Ramírez should eventually return to Mars or whatever otherworldly dimension he represents when he does things on the field few others can. Manzardo should fix one of the leaks in the bottom half of the order. I remain bullish on Bo Naylor’s bat, at least from a power and patience standpoint. Brennan’s metrics are encouraging. And, hey, this offense ranks exactly league average in home runs, an Olympic-sized leap for them. This lineup is far from perfect, but also not the team’s primary concern.

Jason: So what happens when they come back to Earth? Then what? I’ll ask you what you asked me: Is this sustainable?

The defense is elite. The bullpen has been outstanding but feels in danger of being overworked. The starters are a concern. The lineup is what it is. I can’t exactly call it a strength. I rattled off all of those OPS figures, some of which are fairly scary, and yet I want to see more. I really like Freeman in center. I’ve always preferred Arias to Rocchio at short but concede Rocchio is growing on me slightly.

I guess what I’m saying is I’d love to finally see Valera in right field in Cleveland in a few weeks if he can finally stay healthy.

Zack: I could see that being directly tied to Florial.

Jason: Do we know for certain Brennan isn’t a starting major-league outfielder? I feel confident in saying his best role is fourth outfielder, but I’m not all the way there yet. I’m stuck somewhere between “these guys haven’t proven yet they’re The Ones” and “no one has been bad enough to cast aside and move on.” The Guardians somehow have four quarters that add up to $2.50.

Zack: The wild part of this is that while they entered the White Sox series on pace for 105 wins — that just seems absurd, given everything we’ve laid out here — they’re also a member of a shockingly competitive division. I’m so proud of the AL Central. We all spent the winter teasing the teams in this supposedly sorry division, but now there are four teams with an eye on first place, and not just because someone has to win it.

So, I think the main takeaway here is that this sizzling start could force the front office to act aggressively in upgrading the roster, something the organization hasn’t done since much of this roster was in high school. This isn’t like last summer, when the Guardians sat near the top of the division but never resembled a team that had plans to catch fire. It’s a lot better to be asking whether something’s sustainable than asking whether something can be jump-started. If the key characters return to their levels — Ramírez, Williams, Kwan, Giménez — then an addition or two in a couple of months might answer our prompt for us with a resounding yes.

I hope we see him "pretty soon".

BTW I note that after a few uninspiring performances Quantrill has been solid his last two starts. He had one spell where he excelled, but generally he has been a reliable back of the rotation starter. We could certainly use him now.

civ - good call! That was bullshit. Tell me we couldn't use this...

https://www.baseball-reference.com/play ... ca01.shtml


And that is in freaking Colorado some of those starts

I thought we all understood it was actually Quantrill for Barlow !

Yes it was and Barlow has helped solidify an excellent bullpen.
They risked the depth of the starting rotation to deepen the bullpen and with Bieber and Williams the gamble didn't turn out. It could have if they were luckier.

Guardians Prospective
@CleGuardPro

So, about those trades....

Will Benson (2024) 38 games:

.195 AVG / 86 wRC+ / 39.6 SO%

Nolan Jones (2024) 26 games:

.170 AVG / 32 wRC+ / 35.9 SO%

Josh Bell (2024) 42 games:

.203 AVG / 84 wRC+ / 19.3 SO%

Aaron Civale (2024) 8 starts:

2-3 / 41.1 (IP) / 5.88 ERA

The Rays are doing OK with a bunch of recently former Clevelanders.
Amed Rosario is hitting 296 with an impressive 18 RBI
Richie Palacios 281 with 801 OPS
I'll leave out Yandy Diaz since that deal was long ago
And Harold Ramirez who none of us really were all that sorry to lose
Kevin Kelly a reliever who they took in Rule 5 a couple years has been a steady middle reliever for the Rays 3.24 ERA 1.05 WHIP, which compared to Cleveland's bullpen collection does not impress.

All of which means: you win some, you lose some; some guys are flashes in the pan, some sustain success;

Looking At Potential Promotion Candidates

Identifying and analyzing potential promotion candidates in the Guardians minor league system

By ZachF1324 May 14, 2024, 9:00am EDT

With the Guardians 42 games into the season, it's time to take a look at which prospects could be putting themselves in position for a promotion to the level above where they cureently are.

Columbus Clippers:

OF Johnathan Rodriguez- Johnathan Rodriguez has raked at every single level, and he’s doing it again! He’s slashing .283/.385/.457 with a 121 WRC+ and has decreased his strikeout rate and increased his walk rate this season. All signs point to him being called up within the next month or two as long as Laureano continues to struggle.

UIF Daniel Schneeman- I’m a little less enthused about Schneeman as some others, a 27 year old repeating AAA just doesn’t scream impact big leaguer to me. Steven Vogt really seemed to like him during spring training, and to be fair to him, he has been legitimately great in AAA this season. A .304/.435/.584 slashline and a 164 WRC+ is impressive no matter the age or level. He has definitely earned a shot at the big leagues somewhere, even if it doesn’t happen here.

OF George Valera- This may sound crazy to some of you, and I get it, but I am ready to see George Valera at the big league level. They HAVE to get an answer on him this season, it’s his last option year, meaning that next season he cannot be optioned to AAA without being exposed to waivers. He hasn’t been able to stay on the field due to injury, but we have a pretty good idea of the kind of player he is. He’s going to play above average defense, he’s going to draw walks, and he’s going to hit for power. He’s going to strikeout as well but we shouldn’t care too much about that in my opinion.

Akron RubberDucks:

RHP Andrew Walters- I truly believe that Andrew Walters would be the Guardians’ 2nd or 3rd best reliever RIGHT NOW. When you draft a reliever in the first 3 rounds, you almost always expect to see them within a year or two. He has been absolutely toying with AA batters, in 15.1 innings pitched, he has a 1.17 ERA, 30 strikeouts to just 5 walks, he is striking out 47.6% of the batters he faces. I would be SHOCKED if we don’t see Walters in Cleveland this season.

LHP Doug Nikhazy- Doug Nikhazy has yet to give up an earned run in 14 inning pitched this season. Simply put, he’s been incredible. He’s never had issues striking batters out, but he’s always had issues with walks. This season, with an arm angle change, that issue seems to have been fixed, at least for the time being. He went from walking 21.6% of batters he faced in 2021, down to 15.4% last year, and now all the way down to 8.2% this season. He pitched all of 2022 in AA, so I think it is definitely time to see him in AAA.

Lake County Captains:

LHP Parker Messick- If we’re being honest, Parker Messick really should have started this season in AA. He’s far too advanced for High-A at this point. In 37 inning pitched this season, he has a 2.68 ERA, 42 strikeouts to just 12 walks. He’s not going to wow anyone with his velocity, but he has great command with multiple pitches. I fully expect him to be promoted in the next month.

1B/OF CJ Kayfus- CJ Kayfus has been the best hitter in the Guardians’ organization this season, straight up. He’s slashing .333/.425/.622 with a 186 WRC+ in High-A. He has only 19 strikeouts to 12 walks in 106 plate appearances. He’s showing a lot of power, with 6 home runs and 6 doubles already. He’s been unbelievable, he should be in AA very very soon.

SS Alex Mooney- CJ Kayfus has been the best hitter in the Guardians’ organization this season, can you guess who has been the second best? That’s right, it’s Alex Mooney. The Guardians appear to have drafted a couple steals in last years draft. Alex Mooney is slashing .333/.374/.593 with 6 home runs and 10 doubles. He is showing a lot of power as well, but I will say the approach hasn’t been quite as good as Kayfus’s. He has 24 strikeouts to just 5 walks in 108 plate appearances. I’m really excited to see how that approach works against better pitching in AA, and to see what kind of adjustments he may or may not have to make there.

Lynchburg Hillcats:

SS Angel Genao- Angel Genao is someone I thought for sure was going to start in High-A this season, and maybe he should have. He is slashing .291/.341./479 with a 137 WRC+. Maybe most exciting about Genao is that he is showing more power this season than in the past, which is something you’d expect from a 19 year old. He hit just 7 home runs in his first 3 years in the organization. This season he already has 4, to go along with 8 doubles and a triple. His ISO has consistently been under .100, this season it is .188. I’m really excited to see him in High-A and expect that promotion to come soon since he is repeating Single-A.

OF Jaison Chourio- Among all qualified hitters in the Carolina league, Jaison Chourio is 3rd in WRC+, 8th in batting average, 3rd in BB%, 7th in K%, and 2nd in on base percentage. He has been one of the best hitters in the entire league as an 18 year old. He is an absolute savant in the batters box when it comes to plate discipline, only swinging at pitches he knows he can do damage to. He might be the most exciting prospect in the system right now, and I am hoping the organization will be aggressive with him and promote him in the next couple months.

LHP Matt “Tugboat” Wilkinson- Maybe the most obvious promotion candidate in the entire organization. This one is an absolute no brainer. He has been SILLY good. Any statistic you can find, he is number one amongst pitchers, not only in the Guardians’ organization, but in the whole entire Carolina league. Over 35.1 innings pitched this season, he has struck out 63 batters and walked just 9. He has a 1.02 ERA, 1.58 FIP, .158 batting average against, and an ABSURD 41.5% K-BB%. He is only 21 years old, so this isn’t your typical “24 year old beating up on teenagers” which you often see in Single-A. He has been truly special. The most obvious move the organization can make is to promote Messick to AA, and have Wilkinson replace his innings in High-A.

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Cleveland backstop Austin Hedges was about to be presented with his 2023 World Series ring, and the Rangers honored him with a video montage of his top moments. Whether it was base hits, clips of Hedges being Hedges in the Rangers’ dugout or behind-the-scenes looks at his over-the-top clubhouse celebrations (in ways only Hedges can pull off), the video demonstrated the impact -- both on and off the field -- that he made on the World Series champs in his short time with Texas.

Hedges ran out of the visitors’ dugout and secured his ring. He opened the box, marveled at it and placed it on his finger before raising his fist in the air and drawing a big ovation from the crowd. This was the moment he had been dreaming of since November.

“I’m looking forward to the closure,” Hedges said. “Obviously, I’ve moved on, but it’ll still be nice closure [when] you get the jewelry that you work so hard for. I’ll move on and try to get another one.”

Hedges wanted to hang on to the ring for the rest of the evening and show it to his teammates. His plan was to meet with his parents -- who came to the game to see him honored in Texas -- afterward and let them take it home so he didn’t lose it. Once it gets back home, it’ll forever be his reminder that he was a part of baseball history.

But now, the Guardians have proof it can happen to you. Hedges knows he can be an example for this young group to make it even more believable that the team with the longest World Series drought in the Majors -- having not won since 1948 -- can get rings of their own.



“When you get to see a ring, hold a ring, see one of your teammates that you know and love get their ring, it reminds you, ‘This is where I want to be,’” Guardians manager Stephen Vogt said.

After the Guardians won on Monday, Hedges stood at his locker, giving the ring one last look before he handed it off to his parents. He marveled at its beauty. He opened the top of the ring and couldn’t believe the creativity of its designers. Etched in the ring was “11-0 ROAD” to signify how the team went undefeated on the road in the playoffs. But road was spelled with each letter representing the font of the teams the Rangers defeated: Rays, Orioles, Astros and Diamondbacks.

Hedges twisted the top back on and put it back in its rotating display case. As he was putting it away for the night, teammate David Fry walked by and yelled, “We get it, you were on the Rangers last year!” It was a joking tone. The same mocking that Hedges endures on a daily basis with any team he’s a part of. It’s part of the reason that Hedges quickly becomes a staple in any clubhouse he’s in.

Hedges laughed and closed the top of the ring box. It was all in good fun. But it’s clear, this day got everyone’s attention. And maybe, that taste can leave Cleveland even hungrier for its own ring.

“The world works in mysterious ways,” Hedges said. “You show up every day, be a good person, be a good teammate, try to make everybody better around you, and guys respond to that. I don’t know, for whatever reason, wins come out of that. It’s just a perfect reminder that good things happen.”





The Guardians’ City Connect uniforms are here. Players love them. They passed the test for Vogt. And on Friday, they’ll be worn in game action for the first time. There seems to be a large group of fans (at least on social media) who are also excited about the new threads. Luckily for you, the Guardians have also released a series of City Connect-inspired giveaways this year. If you’re interested in securing one, circle the following dates on your calendar:

Friday: City Connect-inspired free shirt (10,000 fans)

Saturday: José Ramírez City Connect bobblehead (12,500)
June 19: City Connect tote bag (10,000)
July 25: City Connect beach towel (10,000)
Aug. 14: City Connect belt bag (10,000)
Aug. 24: City Connect flag (15,000)

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Myles Straw Tells The Guardians To Call-Up 1 Prospect

May 15, 2024

By Andres Chavez

Cleveland Guardians outfielder Myles Straw lost his spot on the active roster just before the regular season started, and has been in Triple-A Columbus ever since.

There, he has had his own ups and downs, but he has also gotten to know other Guardians prospects.

He has evaluated some of their best young talents, such as Johnathan Rodriguez, Juan Brito, Jhonkensy Noel, and Daniel Schneemann.

He has been particularly impressed with the latter, so much that he is lobbying for the team to call Schneemann up probably at his own expense.

“League him,” he tweeted about the prospect.

Straw was replying to a tweet by Guardians Prospective, saying that Schneemann reached base four times in the game on Tuesday (he went 2-3 with a run, a double, and two walks).

In 38 games for Triple-A Columbus he is hitting .313 with a .447 OBP and a .594 slugging percentage.

His OPS is a very solid 1.041.

Triple-A is notoriously hitter-friendly, yet Schneemann is producing 69 percent more than the average hitter at his level, according to his 169 wRC+.

He has evolved considerably if we compare his numbers to those of last year, when he posted a 102 wRC+ at the same level.

With the current landscape of the Guardians offense, it’s baffling that he isn’t in the majors already.

Not only does he have more offensive upside than many of the hitters on the Guardians roster, but he can play multiple positions including second and third base, shortstop, and the two outfield corners.

Straw is right: the organization doesn’t lose anything by trying out Schneemann for a few weeks.

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This Cleveland Guardians Reliever Is Off To A Historic Start This Season

Cleveland closer Emmanuel Clase is off to a start that has been matched by just one other pitcher in MLB history.

Logan Potosky | 4 Hours Ago

On Tuesday night, the Cleveland Guardians earned their third consecutive victory with a 7-4 win over the reigning World Series Champion Texas Rangers, clinching their 10th series win of the season.

Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase sealed the victory with a scoreless ninth inning of relief, earning his 12th save of the season in his 14th opportunity.

With his latest outing, the 26-year-old has now etched himself into the MLB history books for his performance through Cleveland’s first 43 team games.

The two-time reigning MLB All-Star is tied for the most appearances (22) among MLB relief pitchers, and his 12 saves rank tied for third. He has also thrown 22 strikeouts in 21.1 innings of work, allowing just one earned run and two walks, and holding opposing hitters to a .169 batting average.

According to Cleveland Stats on X, Clase is now the second pitcher in MLB history to record at least 12 saves, one-or-fewer earned runs, and two-or-fewer walks in a team’s first 43 games. Hall-of-Famer and former Cleveland pitcher Dennis Eckersley also did this twice as a member of the Oakland Athletics in both 1990 and 1992.

Clase has been the anchor of a Guardians bullpen that has been one of the best units in MLB so far this season.

Cleveland’s relievers lead the league in ERA (2.38), WHIP (1.01), fewest runs allowed (50), fewest home runs allowed (seven), and opponent batting average (.200, tied). The group also ranks top-five in MLB in: strikeouts (185, second), fewest earned runs allowed (44, second), wins (13, tied for third), saves (14, tied for third), fewest walks (50, fourth), and holds (30, fifth).

The Guardians will seek their fourth straight win when they conclude their series against the Rangers on Wednesday night at 8:05 p.m.

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Injuries & Moves:

Williams throws successful 50-pitch bullpen

By MLB.com Staff

May 15, 2024

May 15: RHP Gavin Williams (right elbow discomfort) successfully throws 50-pitch bullpen session
Williams said he didn't feel any lingering effects on Wednesday from his first bullpen session since his anti-inflammatory injection. The righty said he threw 50 pitches (all different types) and is scheduled to throw his next bullpen on Friday.

May 13: LHP Sam Hentges placed on the paternity list; RHP Peter Strzelecki recalled from Triple-A Columbus
Hentges will be away from the team for three days as he returns to Cleveland to be with his wife to welcome their baby. Strzelecki will temporarily take his place in the bullpen. He's thrown 1 2/3 scoreless innings in Columbus since his last stint with Cleveland earlier this month.

10-DAY/15-DAY INJURED LIST

RHP Eli Morgan (right shoulder inflammation)
Expected return: May
Morgan was placed on the 15-day IL on April 17 due to right shoulder inflammation. He pitched in nine games, posting a 2.16 ERA over 8 1/3 innings. Morgan made his second rehab appearance with Triple-A Columbus on May 7, allowing two earned runs and two walks while logging one strikeout in one-third of an inning.

Manager Stephen Vogt confirmed that Morgan is feeling better, but that there is no set number of appearances the team is looking for him to make before activating him off the IL. (Last updated: May 9)

OF Steven Kwan (acute left hamstring strain)
Expected return: Early June
An MRI exam revealed that Kwan, who was injured while making a play in the outfield on May 4, will miss approximately four weeks. He paced the American League in batting average at .353 and had gone an MLB-best 74 consecutive plate appearances without striking out at the time of his injury. (Last updated: May 6)




OF Chase DeLauter (left foot fracture; No. 1 prospect on Guardians Top 30 Propsects list)
The Guardians can breathe a sigh of relief. DeLauter found out on May 9 that the fracture in his fifth metatarsal bone does not require surgery. For now, he'll remain on the Minor League 7-day injured list with Double-A Akron. But he has not gotten into game action since his last game on April 25 and the team doesn't have a timetable for his return just yet. (Last updated: May 15)

60-DAY IL

RHP Gavin Williams (right elbow discomfort)
Expected return: June
Williams made his three-inning start in Arizona to begin his rehab process, but he felt the same discomfort in his elbow after the outing that he did in Spring Training. He received an anti-inflammatory injection on April 24 and was shut down for seven days after that before he was cleared by Dr. Jason Genin to begin throwing. He threw a successful 50-pitch bullpen on May 15 and is expected to increase that pitch count in his next bullpen on May 17.

This began in the middle of Spring Training when Williams made an awkward throw during his weighted-ball workout and felt discomfort in his throwing elbow. He was transferred to the 60-day IL on May 9 to clear a roster spot for Darren McCaughan. (Last updated: May 15)

RHP James Karinchak (right shoulder fatigue)
Expected return: At least the end of May
Karinchak reported to camp with right shoulder fatigue. He was given the green light to begin a throwing program on March 11 and joined the big league team on April 25 to work with the Guardians' training staff. Assuming all goes well, his rehab assignment will be in the near future.

Because he opened the year on the 60-day IL, he'll need to wait until at least the end of May before he can return to game action. (Last updated: April 25)

INF Angel Martínez (fractured hamate)
Expected return: Late May or June
Martinez was transferred to the 60-day IL on April 17 with a fractured hamate. On April 17, he submitted a surgical intervention with Dr. Thomas Graham at Lehigh Valley Health Network in Bethlehem, Pa. (Last updated: April 17)

RHP Shane Bieber (right elbow injury)
Expected return: 2025
Bieber was transferred to the 60-day IL on April 10, and there's no return in sight for Cleveland's ace. He wasn't bouncing back as well as he is used to after his Opening Day start and elbow pain persisted throughout his outing in Seattle.

Bieber underwent imaging that revealed the same problems with his UCL that he had last year. He underwent UCL surgery on April 12. He'll report to Goodyear, Ariz., to begin his rehab. (Last updated: April 13)

RHP Trevor Stephan (UCL surgery)
Expected return: 2025
When Stephan's elbow was examined for discomfort on Feb. 28, a deep bone bruise was discovered. But after it continued to nag him, other opinions were needed. It was determined that his UCL is not providing adequate stability, which caused even more pain in the elbow.

Stephan underwent surgery on March 27 and was given a 12 to 16 month timetable for recovery. (Last updated: March 28)

RHP Daniel Espino (right shoulder capsule and rotator cuff injury; No. 5 on Guardians Top 30 Prospects list)
Espino underwent surgery to repair his right shoulder capsule and rotator cuff injuries on March 13. He's expected to stay in Goodyear, Ariz., to work through his rehab. Although the Guardians don't have a firm timetable on when he may return to action, the team does not expect him to pitch during the 2024 season. (Last updated: May 15)

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Guardians Fans Will Enjoy Latest Gavin Williams Update

May 16, 2024

By Andres Chavez

The Cleveland Guardians have already lost Shane Bieber for the year with an injury, and Triston McKenzie’s elbow might be a ticking bomb, too.

They have also been without Gavin Williams all season to this point, as he recovers from an elbow injury suffered while training back in March.

The Guardians have been very careful with Williams because he has already felt renewed soreness after throwing, which led to him being shut down for a few days.

Those days are in the past, though, as he is currently inching closer to facing hitters.

“Cleveland #Guardians RHP Gavin Williams (right elbow) threw a 50-pitch bullpen session Wednesday and did not feel any lingering discomfort or pain. Williams is set to throw his next bullpen on Friday,” Guardians Prospective tweeted.

A 50-pitch throwing session with no renewed soreness is music to the Guardians’ ears.

It means he is getting closer to throwing live batting practice or simulated games, then some minor league rehab games.

If everything goes according to the plan and there are no further setbacks, we could be talking about a June return for the talented right-hander.

Williams was particularly impressive last year with the Guardians, throwing 82 innings of a 3.29 ERA.

He is one of the most talented young pitchers in the American League and a big part of the Guardians future.

That, of course, will depend on the health of his right elbow, among other things.

If he makes a successful return, he could replace Ben Lively or, most likely, Carlos Carrasco in the Guardians rotation.

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What Can the Guardians Do to Take the Next Step?

Spending a rare off-day thinking about what direction the 2024 Guardians go in next

By Quincy Wheeler May 16, 2024, 12:32pm EDT

The Guardians are a first place team, but I want more.

This is a pretty common sentiment with fans, but I write the above sentence with no feelings of discontent or angst. I simply believe that Cleveland has a pretty good baseball team on its hands and some changes can be made to help the team get to the next level. Hopefully, Chris Antonetti has a surprise or two up his sleeve in this regard. While we wait to see, I want to quickly outline a few suggestions below and would enjoy hearing any further thoughts from you in the comments below.

Exchange Gabriel Arias for Jose Tena (or Daniel Schneemann).

I will explain why my first choice is Jose Tena to replace Arias in just a minute, but I want to first discuss Arias. The best asset Arias has in his favor is his age. He is still only 24 years old and it is very difficult for young players to succeed in the major leagues. Despite a horrific start to 2024 against right-handed pitching, Arias still has a career 103 wRC+ vs. RHP. We have all SEEN the potential he has with his glove, range and cannon arm, as well as an impressive amount of defensive versatility. We can all sympathize with his having to deal with sporadic playing time. He has excellent bat speed and hits the ball hard at a greater rate than his compatriots at shortstop.

Ok, now for the bad. At almost 500 major league plate appearances, Arias is at a 75 wRC+. His chase rates have dropped this season with his walk rate (and neither were good), his 54% career groundball rate and 3.4 career launch angle don’t appear to be particularly correctable, and, perhaps most distressingly, he hasn’t been a particularly notable defender with 2 outs above average in 489 innings at shortstop, 2 OAA in 170 innings at first-base, 0 OAA in 62 innings at second-base, -3 OAA in 259 innings at third-base, and -3 OAA in the outfield. Defensive Runs Saved have him underwater at all positions except first base where he has 1 DRS. He’s not a particular asset on the bases, either, with just 1.4 Baserunning Runs Above Average for his career.

I don’t want to spend a ton of time talking about this, but I do think it’s fair to mention that on-air personalities for the Guardians in TV and radio have all mentioned some concerns with Arias’s effort as points in time over the past two seasons. For whatever my personal sources are worth, rumors have long been around that, like many young players, he may have been a little more excited to MAKE the big leagues than to improve, grow and establish himself in the big leagues. That isn’t an unusual phenomenon and young players usually learn the need to change their mindset in short order, so I don’t say this to condemn Arias or castigate him in any manner. I do think it’s relevant to this topic, so I share it here, accordingly.

While I think it’s fair to view all off-hand comments and rumblings with skepticism, I can’t help but note that I have observed several times where Arias does not seem particularly motivated to run out groundballs. and I also have a few strangely misplayed balls in the field that stick out in my memory from him, as well. I am not someone who loses my mind over players jogging out the routine groundball now and then, but, man, if you’re going to hit the amount of groundballs Arias does, and if your calling card is your glove, and if you’re trying to make your way in the big leagues, you should really probably give your full effort on each groundball you hit or you field. I am not sure I can argue in any meaningful way that he has done that, and I know specifically last year, the Bally’s broadcast reported that Jose Ramirez sat him down and explained the need to hustle on every ball he hits, so it has been something worth addressing at least on one occasion.

With all this said, I support a demotion of Arias to Columbus. It seems like a good way to give him an opportunity to reassess his approach as a major league player. The problem is that it removes a valuable option teams may covet for him if the Guardians look to trade him. For me, if that option is a big enough deal to the Guardians that they are unwilling to demote Arias, then it’s time to look to trade him, instead.

In Arias’s place, I would promote Jose Tena. To the Scheemann hive, I point to Jose Tena’s career splits vs. lefties. In 414 at-bats since 2021 against LHP, Tena has a .798 OPS. In 271 at-bats in the same time period vs. LHP, Schneemann has a .621 OPS. Since being called up to the Columbus last summer, Tena has a 100 wRC+ that includes a literally and figuratively cold April this season where his wRC+ was 45. Most importantly, Tena is an excellent defender at third base, shortstop and second base so can fit easily into the utility infield role with Brayan Rocchio given total control of the reigns to seize the role as Guardians shortstop of the future.

I know many want to see Daniel Schneemann and his 169 wRC+ and double-digit walk-rate on the Guardians. I am sympathetic and if the Guardians go that direction, I’ll gladly support their decision. I do, however, prefer Tena for a few reasons: While I’m not especially concerned about making room for Schneemann on the 40-man, it is an additional challenge that promoting Tena doesn’t cause. I am not at all opposed to seeing if Schneemann is the rare late bloomer who has discovered something at the plate, but he is not the defender Tena is. For Schneemannators, however, I do acknowledge that he has been a better base stealer than Tena, with 21 steals and 4 caught stealing in 2023-2024 while Tena is at 20 and 10. Schneemann offers utility as an outfielder but, for me, given the Guardians can play David Fry in the outfield, and he has far less swing and miss in his approach than Tena. However, that doesn’t offer enough of a benefit to forego the superior defense that Tena plays on the dirt, or Tena’s ability to better handle LHP.

I will also mention that while neither player is especially adept at it, Tena has been notably better than Schneemann at pulling fly balls in the air which can help find some offensive value at the margins. If, by the All-Star break, Tena fails to provide a good presence in the utility role, it will be time to bite the bullet and create a roster spot for the possibility of the lightening strike a breakout from 27 year old Schneemann would be, if he’s continuing to perform.

So, demote Gabriel Arias, promote Jose Tena for the utility infielder role, hand the reigns of shortstop of the future to Brayan Rocchio (until Juan Brito breaks out this summer and then Travis Bazzana is drafted, both causing the team to switch Andres Gimenez to short to accommodate one of those two as a second baseman and the other as a left-fielder, thanks, bye).

Cut Ramon Laureano, Promote Johnathan Rodriguez

We all know it, sadly. Ramon Laureano has hit a wall as a big leaguer. Laureano has a 60 wRC+ this year for Cleveland. This, in itself, would not be particularly alarming given that since coming to Cleveland, Laureano is still at a 90 wRC+ overall. However, the more alarming statistic is that Laureano over the past two seasons has declined to below average against fastballs after being reliably above average against them his whole career. Performance against fastballs declining is one of the most reliable indicators of hitter decline. I will say, however, that Laureano still has excellent average bat speed, so I think I will understand if the team gives him continued leash to try to figure things out vs. LHP. Defensively, things are a mixed bag for Laureano as OAA has him at -2 and DRS has him at +3. My guess is that he’s still an asset in right field but should never be seen in center again (the latter conclusion is generally agreed upon by both fielding metrics).

I have never been a huge fan of Johnathan Rodriguez because he is very much the Oscar Gonzalez profile; he swings a misses a good bit and hits way too many groundballs, but when he connects, he hits it a ton. I do think that, with the Guardians adding him to the 40-man roster in the offseason, it is time to see what he can do in the majors. Putting aside an oddly poor beginning to 2024 vs. lefties, Rodriguez has put up an OPS over .900 against LHP in the minors over the past two years. Steamer projects Rodriguez for 103 wRC+ and ZiPS has him at 93 wRC+ if promoted now. I don’t think the juice of opportunity cost and potential sunk cost fallacy justify the squeez of keeping Laureano on the roster at this point. Oh look, Johnny Rockets just hit a bomb to back up my point:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1791144206016061942

Give Rodriguez regular opportunity to start in right-field against LHP, hand over the full-time centerfield reigns to Tyler Freeman with Will Brennan spelling him there as needed, and give Rodriguez opportunities to pinch-hit against lefty relievers and let’s see what he can offer, as we simultaneously look at the last item on my off-day to-do list...

Talk to the Angels’ Front Office Everyday About Potential Trade Targets

We will spend some time in June looking at potential trade targets for the Guardians across the league but Ken Rosenthal wrote today about the plain fact that the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are bad and may be willing to trade some players. As Rosenthal points out, it’s impossible to predict an Angels trade because their owner is a wildcard who may suddenly demand an imminently tradeable asset stay (i.e. Shohei Ohtani). But, if good sense prevails, the Angels should definitely be willing to trade left-handed starter Tyler Anderson, who would interest me, and right-fielder Taylor Ward, whom I’ve long coveted.

Across MLB, amidst a sluggish start for hitters overall, hitters who bat fifth in the order have a 101 wRC+ in 2024. Guardians’ fifth hitters have an 86 wRC+. Maybe David Fry is the answer there, but questions remain in the top of the Guardians’ order where a healthy Kwan answers the leadoff issue and Ramirez and Josh Naylor nail down two spots but a #2 or #3 hitter isn’t clearly identifiable,

In this role, batting 2nd, 3rd, or 5th, Taylor Ward would be a tremendous answer. Since 2021, Ward has a 121 wRC+ overall including an eye-popping 133 wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching during that time. Ward just turned 30 but rather than slow down, his barrel-rate has experienced a notable uptick this season. OAA has him as an above-average right-fielder while DRS has him as a little below-average but not unplayable there. For me, a lineup of...

1. Kwan - LF
2. Ward - RF/DH
3. Ramirez - 3B
4. Naylor - 1B
5. Manzardo/Fry - DH
6. Gimenez - 2B
7. Freeman - CF
8. Bo Naylor - C
9. Rocchio - SS

...looks a lot more formidable in a push to catch the Twins and allows for you to keep either Will Brennan or Estevan Florial as a utility outfielder and consistent starter vs. RHP in center or right.

Of course, Rosenthal also mentioned Jo Adell who has also been a coveted target of mine for a while. If the Guardians’ want to buy in on his breakout season, I am also there for that as both his timeline and his tools are a different level of exciting than Ward’s are. In any case, Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff should be bending Angel GM Perry Minasian’s ear a lot over the next couple months, in my humble opinion.

I am grateful and content with a hot start to the 2024 season for the Guardians. I’m hopeful they can manage a series win against the Twins this weekend, but I also think there are some small (and big) changes that can increase their chances at securing an eventual division title. We’ll write more about further ideas as the season goes on, but we are always interested in YOUR thoughts, so share any other ideas or reactions below.

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Have Patience with Tyler Freeman

2024 has been an arduous journey for the 24 year-old, and he’s taking it in stride

By Matt_Seese May 16, 2024, 10:55am EDT

It’s been a unique, winding road for Tyler Freeman. Drafted out of high school by Cleveland in the second round of 2017, the soon-to-be 25 year old has finally found a sticking spot after years of grinding his way up the ranks within the organization, but not where he ever anticipated.

Tyler Freeman has played in 38 games this season for the Guardians, who are 27-17 overall, and 36 of them have come in the same position for the career middle infielder: center field.

Coming into the 2024 season, centerfield had been a sore spot within the Guardians’ organization for years. In fact, since 2018, it has been the primary spot of underwhelming results within the team. Since 2018, Guardians centerfielders rank 29th in fWAR (6.0), 29th in wRC+ (77), and last in home runs (63). Not surprising to those who have watched this team for many years, but seeing it put into words is painful nonetheless. That brings me to Tyler Freeman. Tyler Freeman had never played a professional inning of baseball in center field coming into 2024, but Stephen Vogt saw something in Freeman that even he may not have.

Enter Spring Training, and the battle for shortstop was a two horse race. It was either going to be Brayan Rocchio or Gabriel Arias, and that left Freeman without a real position option to get consistent playing time. However, there was another unspoken guarantee: Myles Straw was not going to start in center again, but who would? A Spring crash course commenced for Freeman, and we even saw other prospects like Angel Martinez take reps in center field, just to see what they had out there. Sure enough, Opening Day rolled around, and Tyler Freeman was starting in center, and he’s been there since so far.

APPROACH ADJUSTMENT

As it turns out, it wasn’t just a positional change Tyler Freeman would undertake; his whole approach at the plate would also be shifting. With Terry Francona retiring, first-time manager Stephen Vogt took the reins, and with him came a more modern hitting approach: pull the ball and do it in the air.

The Guardians’s 34.7% flyball rate ranked 28th in 2023, and they were pulling the ball just 38.4% of the time, ranking 29th. Despite very little roster change this season from last, the Guardians now rank 15th in flyball rate at 37.5%, and their pull rate is sixth in baseball at 42.0%. A huge shift no doubt, and no one embodies it quite like Tyler Freeman.

From last season to this season, Freeman’s batted ball data has shifted tremendously. From a sub-30% flyball rate in 2023, Freeman has upped that to 42%, and his groundball rate has gone down to 44% from 47.5%. With a concerted effort to lift the ball more, one may think his pop-up rate would increase, but that’s not happened either. In fact, he’s nearly cut it in half (17.6% down to 9.5%).

Naturally, he had a very slow start. Adjusting your approach while facing big league pitching while also learning a new position on the fly is a tremendous ask of anyone, and the growing pains came as expected. From the start of the season through April 15th, 50 plate appearances into the season, Freeman was walking just 4.1% of the time while hitting .159 with a 40 wRC+ and sub-par defense.

Since then, with a near 100 plate appearance sample, 96 to be exact, Freeman has been one of the better hitters on the team. Posting a 119 wRC+ in that span while slashing .215/.347/.392 with three home runs and a 10.4% walk rate, Freeman’s molding into this new hitting profile was taking place. Freeman is running a 7.6% barrel rate in this span, third best on the team, behind only Josh Naylor and Estevan Florial who both sit at 10+%, and his xwOBA is .324, just behind Jose Ramirez’s .325.

On a substantially less analytical note, it’s fun to watch Freeman play baseball as he figures everything out for multiple reasons. He does everything at 100 miles per hour. Nothing is done with a lack of self confidence, even on flyballs he overruns or misjudges in center. We expect these things to happen, and the defense has done nothing but gradually improve from the start. Freeman was at -2 defensive runs saved around the midway point of April. That number is back up to 0 overall. Freeman has tremendous grit that works in his favor. He’s been fighting the odds since day one in the organization, and it never stopped him from getting to this point.

His series in Texas perfectly embodies everything he’s about. The collision with Brayan Rocchio should have been enough to pull him out of a game the Guardians were winning. He got popped in the jaw among other areas, but he stayed out there. The very next half inning, he wears a pitch on the back then comes around to score. The half inning after that? He makes a diving catch in center. That, to me, encapsulates everything Freeman represents. He’s a Tito-type player through and through who is adapting to what Stephen Vogt has asked of him at every turn, and not only is it making him a better hitter, but that confidence on the field is still shining through and only growing. Don’t give up on him after a rough start because, as we talked about, all he’s done is improve, and he will continue to get better.

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