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by rusty2
Guardians free-agency primer: Is anyone available/affordable to help the outfield?
By Zack Meisel
CLEVELAND — You know those tasks you do in which, while you’re completing them, you make a mental note of how there’s minimal benefit to actually doing them? Folding laundry that you’re just going to stuff into a drawer. Getting a car wash on a rare sunny day during a slush-filled Cleveland winter. Taking a few practice putts ahead of the inevitable 96 you’re about to card on the golf course.
Anyway, welcome to the Cleveland Guardians free-agency preview.
The Guardians have cut ties with Cal Quantrill, sacrificing some starting rotation depth for about $6.5 million in self-imposed payroll flexibility. They swapped Enyel De Los Santos for Scott Barlow, which they hope solves the eighth-inning riddle that haunted them throughout the 2023 season. Barlow is set to earn a projected $7 million in arbitration.
They haven’t yet addressed their lineup. They need to address their lineup.
If they’re visiting the free-agent market, they’ve come to the wrong place.
The group breaks down like this:
Tier 1: Shohei Ohtani
Tier 2: Cody Bellinger, maybe Matt Chapman
Tier 3: uhh … Jeimer Candelario?
There are massive craters between each tier, and for a team in the Guardians that typically pursues players in Tier 6 or 7, this doesn’t shape up favorably. Without much of an upper class, players in the lower tiers will appeal more to the big spenders than they might in a normal winter. Those mid-range free agents who might have fallen into Cleveland’s lap — think Josh Bell last winter on a two-year, $33 million deal — won’t hamstring a club with a larger payroll if they don’t pan out. Meanwhile, Cleveland was so desperate to offload Bell’s deal, fearing he’d exercise his 2024 option (which he did), they flipped him to the Marlins and agreed to eat Jean Segura’s slightly less cumbersome salary.
The Guardians seem more likely to bolster their roster via trade, but for the sake of thoroughness, let’s assess if any free agents might make sense.
Their needs
Cleveland’s outfielders totaled 18 home runs in 1,997 plate appearances in 2023. That ranked 30th among the 30 teams. The Nationals’ outfielders ranked second-last, with 46.
There’s more to life than power — for someone who never watched “Succession,” maybe — but the Guardians need better production from their outfield however they can achieve it. Steven Kwan will occupy one spot. That leaves two spots for Myles Straw, Ramón Laureano, Oscar Gonzalez, Will Brennan, Johnathan Rodriguez, George Valera, Jhonkensy Noel and eventually Chase DeLauter or any external additions.
The Guardians need to bolster the offensive production of their outfield, which got five homers from Steven Kwan in 2023. (Mark Cunningham / MLB Photos via Getty Images)
Elsewhere on the roster, they scooped up Christian Bethancourt to back up Bo Naylor behind the plate. There’s not much available in the catching market — Mitch Garver and Gary Sánchez are the top choices — unless you have an ex-Cleveland fetish. Austin Hedges, Roberto Pérez, Francisco Mejía, Mike Zunino and Sandy León are all free agents, and Luke Maile already re-signed with the Reds.
Cleveland’s infield seems set with Josh Naylor, José Ramírez, Andrés Giménez and one of a dozen shortstop candidates. With the trade of Quantrill, they could use some starting pitching depth behind a first five that’s mighty talented but full of injury- and youth-related question marks. They tendered contracts to James Karinchak, Sam Hentges and Nick Sandlin, so they have plenty of options in the bullpen, though it never hurts to upgrade there.
So, in order of priority, the Guardians’ needs are outfield, more outfield and pitching depth.
The outfielders
(Included are contract projections for anyone who ranks among The Athletic’s top 40 free agents)
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.: He’s been an above-average hitter every year of his career, and last season, he became a standout defender in left field. He makes a lot of contact, boasts a strikeout rate the Guardians would covet and hit 24 home runs. (He hit only five in 2022, though his .466 career slugging percentage suggests that was an anomaly.) He’s been a solid, reliable contributor, which also makes him quite the hotshot in this weak class.
The Athletic’s contract projection: four years, $56 million
Teoscar Hernández: His strikeout rate is terrifying, but if a team wants power and thinks he can revert more to his 2020-22 form, then he’s worth a look. He was a Silver Slugger Award winner in both 2020 and ’21 when he recorded a combined .882 OPS.
The Athletic’s contract projection: four years, $80 million
Jorge Soler: He was an All-Star in 2023, and his metrics jump off the page. He tatters the ball, he walks a lot and he bettered his strikeout rate. He’d be a no-brainer right-handed stick to slot between Josh Naylor and Kyle Manzardo. The downside? He’s a nightmare defensively in the outfield, and while he’s enjoyed a couple of standout seasons, he’s also logged some rough ones, so there’s some risk involved.
The Athletic’s contract projection: three years, $45 million
Adam Duvall: The Guardians have made it no secret they’re desperate for more slugging, but just how desperate? Duvall has slugged .494 over the last five seasons, but he also tends to run a low average and on-base percentage. His presence would be a shock to the system of a lineup that features hitters with the opposite profile.
Joc Pederson: Probably best cast as the strong side of a platoon (partnering with Laureano, perhaps?), Pederson routinely ranks among the league leaders in exit velocity and hard-hit rate. He boosted his walk rate to 13.4 percent last season and trimmed his strikeout rate. The 31-year-old owns a career OPS of .800.
Tommy Pham: He’s played for four teams the last two years, five the last three years, seven the last six years. The league is familiar with what Pham offers. He hits the ball hard, swiped 22 bases, doesn’t carry alarming walk or strikeout rates (and annually has one of the league’s top chase rates) and his metrics actually paint an encouraging picture for a soon-to-be 36-year-old. And, well, he’ll be 36 in March.
The Athletic’s contract projection: one year, $10.5 million
Jason Heyward: A glove-first outfielder doesn’t really jibe with what the Guardians need, even if Heyward emerged from a years-long funk to post an .813 OPS last season.
The Athletic’s contract projection: two years, $21 million
Other candidates for the Guardians’ annual Eddie Rosario/Domingo Santana/Carlos Gonzalez Memorial Outfield Honor: Andrew McCutchen, Joey Gallo, Hunter Renfroe, Robbie Grossman, David Peralta, Jesse Winker, Wil Myers, Trey Mancini, A.J. Pollock
Gallo would count as an extreme contrast to the hitters the Guardians have employed over the last couple of years. Cleveland once coveted Winker when he thrived for the Reds, but he has since endured a couple of rough seasons at the plate. Renfroe has bounced to six teams over the last five seasons, essentially a hired gun tasked with crushing homers, though his metrics went in the wrong direction last season.
Hey, I know you: Michael Brantley, Tyler Naquin, Ben Gamel, Kole Calhoun, Brad Miller, Franmil Reyes
Injuries have limited Brantley to 79 games the last two years; he’s 36, but also seems capable of hitting .285 as an octogenarian. Since Cleveland cut ties with Reyes in August 2022, he has compiled a .646 OPS, with seven homers in 258 plate appearances. He spent much of last summer at Triple A.
The pitchers
Cleveland doesn’t typically devote free-agent dollars to relievers, so you can safely cross off Josh Hader, Aroldis Chapman, Jordan Hicks and Craig Kimbrel.
If the Guardians want a second lefty reliever to pair with Hentges, Brent Suter is a junk-thrower who’s elite at limiting hard contact. Though his walk and strikeout rates are unimpressive, he owns a 3.49 ERA across eight seasons. Will Smith has won the World Series each of the last three years, and each with a different team, so if Cleveland wants to end its 75-year title drought, he seems like a necessary addition. Matt Moore was with the Guardians for 10 minutes before they sent him to the Marlins for five minutes. He has logged a 2.20 ERA in the last two years. Andrew Chafin is a Kent State product with a mean mustache and strikeout rate.
As for right-handed depth, Emilio Pagan has always had the Guardians in his best interests. Chris Stratton, Ryan Brasier, Joe Kelly, Phil Maton, Keynan Middleton and Ryne Stanek are also available.
It’s even more difficult to envision the club forking over guaranteed money to a starting pitcher. In the last decade, they’ve committed major-league money to one pitcher during the winter. And, really, the identity of the pitcher should be a $2,000 word clue on Jeopardy. (Gavin Floyd, nine years ago, on a one-year, $4 million deal. He totaled 13 1/3 innings for Cleveland.)
It seems more likely that they’ll toss a non-roster body or two onto the pile of backup plans that includes Joey Cantillo, Xzavion Curry, Hunter Gaddis and Cody Morris.
There’s a solid crop of starters on the market, in Blake Snell, Sonny Gray, Jordan Montgomery, Marcus Stroman, Eduardo Rodriguez and Michael Wacha. Jack Flaherty, Seth Lugo, Michael Lorenzen, Mike Clevinger, Lucas Giolito and Sean Manaea, all projected by FanGraphs to land multi-year deals, don’t seem like fits either.
The Guardians would be looking more in the take-a-flyer territory: James Paxton, Martín Pérez, Alex Wood, Dakota Hudson, Carlos Carrasco, Chris Flexen, Luis Severino and Corey Kluber.