Here's why a Japanese slugger is one of the most intriguing free agents

November 7th, 2025

A year ago, when the news first broke that Munetaka Murakami was likely headed to the Major Leagues in 2026, the Japanese slugger was one of the great enigmas of the baseball world.

Murakami had Ruthian power … and Joey Gallo-esque strikeout problems. He had superstar upside, and one of the greatest hitting seasons in history under his belt -- Murakami's 2022 season in Nippon Professional Baseball, when he hit 56 home runs and won a batting Triple Crown. But he was striking out more and more, and even though he kept crushing homers, he hadn't replicated the all-around hitting success of that historic season in the two seasons after.

Fast-forward a year. Murakami is coming. The 25-year-old lefty slugger will be posted by his NPB club, the Tokyo Yakult Swallows, on Friday. And Murakami is still the same enigma. Projecting the type of hitter he'll be in the Majors is anything but easy -- but the high end of those projections is tantalizing.

Here's what makes Murakami so exciting as the next potential international MLB star -- and the big question he'll have to answer if that's what he's going to become.

First things first: Murakami's power is still enormous.

Murakami was limited to just 56 games in 2025 due to an oblique injury, but he provided plenty of big swings after he came back.

Once Murakami got back in the Swallows lineup, he went on a tear. He hit 22 home runs in his 56 games, which is an even higher home run pace than his 56 homers in 141 games in 2022.

Murakami finished in the top five in NPB in homers … despite barely playing a third of the games as the only hitters in front of him on the leaderboard. So he's still got the pop.

In 2025, Murakami was more than twice as good as the average NPB hitter, with a 208 wRC+ that was reminiscent of his 2022 season. He once again excelled at crushing fly balls and has tons of pull power, which is how plenty of MLB sluggers, like Cal Raleigh and Kyle Schwarber, get their home runs. Murakami is a highly feared hitter, whose prodigious power also helps him draw tons of walks.






And that respect from pitchers is deserved. Like some of those big lefty sluggers in the Majors, Murakami can reach the upper echelons of exit velocity. He definitely stacks up with the hardest hitters in MLB.

Murakami's max exit velocity during the 2025 season was 116.5 mph, according to NPB tracking data newly provided in the league's NPB+ app. That's harder than most MLB sluggers ever hit the ball.

NPB 2025 max exit velocities of notable players (via NPB+)

Richard Sunagawa: 119.2 mph
Seiya Hosokawa: 117.0
Munetaka Murakami: 116.5
Teruaki Sato: 116.0
Chusei Mannami: 114.3
Kenta Bright: 114.3
Shugo Maki: 114.0
Kazuma Okamoto: 112.2
Shota Morishita: 111.6

Murakami's swing-and-miss and K numbers by season
Per DeltaGraphs

2022: 31.7% whiff rate, 20.9% strikeout rate
2023: 34.3% whiff rate, 28.1% strikeout rate
2024: 37.3% whiff rate, 29.5% strikeout rate
2025: 36.7% whiff rate, 28.6% strikeout rate

Such a high swing-and-miss rate and strikeout rate in Japan is not good -- when NPB sluggers come to MLB, their contact numbers already tend to get worse. And Murakami's whiff rate and K% would have both been among the highest in MLB in 2025.

As Yuri Karasawa noted in a thorough breakdown of Murakami over at JapanBall, Murakami's contact rate on pitches in the strike zone in 2025 was just 72.6%, down from 77.1% in 2022. In MLB, the average in-zone contact rate is 82.5%.ow high his ceiling is as a power hitter. The harder you can hit the ball, the better your outcomes can be as a batter.

Hitting the ball extremely hard is a skill. Hitting the ball as Murakami can is a rare skill.

In 2025, only 23 MLB hitters hit even one ball 116 mph or harder. And only nine left-handed hitters did it, a list headlined by Oneil Cruz, James Wood, Schwarber, Elly De La Cruz and, of course, Shohei Ohtani.

Murakami's 116.5 mph max exit velo this season is also in line with the numbers we saw from him during the 2023 World Baseball Classic, when he played in front of Statcast tracking systems.







His hardest-hit ball tracked in the tournament was a 115.1 mph home run off Merrill Kelly in Japan's win over the U.S. in the championship game. This year in MLB, only 19 players hit a home run 115 mph or harder. The nine of those who are lefties include Ohtani, Cruz, Schwarber, Wood, De La Cruz and Juan Soto.

Murakami looks like he could also have the high bat speeds to produce those hard-hit balls regularly. Also per the NPB+ app, his max bat speed in 2025 was 85.7 mph. For reference, Statcast's "fast swing" threshold for bat speed is 75-plus mph, and the only MLB hitter who averages a bat speed of 80-plus mph is Giancarlo Stanton.

NPB 2025 max bat speed of notable players (via NPB+)

Shota Morishita 88.0 mph
Seiya Watanabe 88.0
Teruaki Sato: 87.7
Seiya Hosokawa: 87.4
Kenta Bright: 87.4
Chusei Mannami: 86.6
Munetaka Murakami: 85.7
Shugo Maki: 85.5
Richard Sunagawa: 85.1
Kazuma Okamoto: 84.2

Now, there's not much real insight to be gained just from Murakami's highest individual swing speed, as plenty of hitters can generate those high bat speeds by taking an all-out hack once in a while. It's more just a teaser. We don't have an average bat speed number for Murakami yet. But we can hope that given Murakami's exit velocity and power production that results from his swings, he will have the bat speed to match.

But the big question: Can Murakami get his K's down?

If Murakami were jumping to the Major Leagues after his 2022 season, this wouldn't be so urgent a question. While his strikeout numbers were still relatively high for NPB -- a lower-strikeout league than MLB -- they were a lot lower than they are now.

Murakami's K's have ballooned in the three seasons since his record-setting year. That resulted in a dip in production at the plate in 2023 and '24 (Murakami was still very good as a hitter, just not historically good), and even stayed true in 2025, when his offensive numbers rebounded.

Those underlying numbers -- high swing-and-miss, high strikeouts, low contact -- are the No. 1 concern with Murakami as an MLB hitter.

Murakami's swing-and-miss and K numbers by season
Per DeltaGraphs

2022: 31.7% whiff rate, 20.9% strikeout rate
2023: 34.3% whiff rate, 28.1% strikeout rate
2024: 37.3% whiff rate, 29.5% strikeout rate
2025: 36.7% whiff rate, 28.6% strikeout rate
Such a high swing-and-miss rate and strikeout rate in Japan is not good -- when NPB sluggers come to MLB, their contact numbers already tend to get worse. And Murakami's whiff rate and K% would have both been among the highest in MLB in 2025.

As Yuri Karasawa noted in a thorough breakdown of Murakami over at JapanBall, Murakami's contact rate on pitches in the strike zone in 2025 was just 72.6%, down from 77.1% in 2022. In MLB, the average in-zone contact rate is 82.5%.

In the Major Leagues, even elite high-power, high-strikeout sluggers like Aaron Judge, Ohtani and Schwarber will keep their in-zone contact rates above 75%. Only a few star sluggers like Rafael Devers and Nick Kurtz dipped below that threshold in 2025. And again, the NPB-to-MLB move has a tendency to bring those contact rates down.

Other Japanese sluggers like Seiya Suzuki have had much higher contact rates when they came to MLB. But Karasawa did note one interesting comparison who was more in line with Murakami: a young Ohtani, who had similar high hard-hit rates and contact metrics to Murakami when he joined the Angels in the 2017-18 offseason at age 22.

But there's risk for Murakami. High velocity, as well as secondary pitches -- especially breaking pitches from left-handed pitchers and offspeed pitches from right-handed pitchers -- posed problems for Murakami. Again, that doesn't bode particularly well for batting in MLB, where high-velocity fastballs are more prevalent and wipeout breaking and offspeed pitches are heavily used.

This season, Murakami swung at missed at nearly half of the offspeed pitches he swung at vs. righties, and nearly two thirds of the breaking pitches he swung at vs. lefties, per data from the handy NPB Batter Profile app. He'll have to work on making more contact against those secondary pitches in MLB.






So Murakami's No. 1 goal when he arrives in MLB will have to be improving his contact ability while maintaining his elite power.

If he does that, he will be a star slugger in the Majors. His bat is just that dangerous.

As others have noted, Murakami could be a Matt Olson type, or a Devers, or a Wood or Riley Greene -- players for whom the strikeouts-for-home-run-power tradeoff is worth it in a big way.

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Not surprised Espino was "shut down". He got in a few innings, looked good, and the AFL season is nearly over . I'll be optimistic.

Cleveland Guardians Offseason Prospect Report 11/12-14/25

AFL Season wraps up; Angel Martinez makes winter ball debut

Matthew Kennell and Arthur Kinney

Nov 15, 2025

Joe Lampe (RF, Surprise - Thursday): 0-4, 1 R, 1 BB, 1 SB, 1 Outfield Assist - Despite going hitless, Lampe played a huge role in the Saguaros advancement to the title game with a trio of key moments. The first came in the top of the sixth when he started a 9-6-2 play that kept a game-tying two-run single from becoming a go-ahead bases-clearer (more on this play later). The other two came in the bottom of the ninth, which saw Joe draw a one-out walk and subsequently steal second to get into scoring position to be driven in by Blake Mitchell’s game-winning hit.

Trenton Denholm (SP, Surprise - Thursday): 4 IP, 1 BB, 2 K - Denholm wrapped up his 2025 in grand fashion with this stellar start in which he came within a walk of pitching a quartet of perfect frames.

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Matt Jachec (RP, Surprise - Thursday): BS, 1.1 IP, 1 H, 1 BB - About that hit I mentioned earlier…yeah, that was Jachec. While his introduction to the contest was rough, to say the least, Matt pitched a solid seventh after getting his bacon saved by Lampe.

Juan Benjamin (3B, Surprise - Friday): 1-4, 1 R, 2 RBI, 1 K, 1 SB - There may not be much that people remember about Benjamin’s 2025 fall efforts, but his lone hit in the title tilt will certainly be one of them, as it gave the Saguaros a lead they would not relinquish. Fun Fact: There was a Northeast Ohio connection on the other end of Juan’s ultimately game-winning two-run single as the pitch was thrown by former Lake Erie Crusher and current Reds prospect Trevor Kuncl.

Joe Lampe (starting RF, Surprise - Friday): 0-2, 2 K - Lampe’s impressive autumnal campaign, on the other hand, ended in ignominious fashion, with Joe being pulled for a defensive replacement to start the sixth frame after striking out in both of his plate appearances.

Gabriel Arias (DH, La Guaira - Wednesday): 0-for-1, R, 3 BBs, SB - The Major Leaguer Arias displayed poise against a pitching staff that did not have their best stuff. He reached base in three of his four plate appearances, all on walks - but Arias is fairing best of all the Major League names on the Tiburones roster.

Gabriel Arias (SS, La Guaira - Friday): 0-3, 1 R, 2 BB, 1 K - For the second straight game, Arias scored a run in a hitless multi-walk effort, bringing his free pass total for the week to six over the course of three games.

Carlos Hernandez (RP, Caracas - Thursday): L (0-1), BS (2), 0.2 IP, 2 H, 4 R (3 earned), 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HR allowed - A pair of blown saves in his first three outings is not the start Hernandez envisioned to his LVBP season. Hopefully, this is a blip and not a preview of what we’ll see from him in Goodyear come February.

Angel Genao (SS, Aguilas - Wednesday): 1-for-5, R - Genao had a pair of opportunities with runners in scoring position on Wednesday but grounded out in the fourth and struck out in the seventh. Genao’s lone hit of the night came on a single on the infield in front of a homerun in the fifth. The consistency from the 21-year-old has seen him move up to the heart of the order with a .327 batting average.

Angel Genao (SS, Aguilas - Thursday): 1-4, 1 R, 1 K - Genao scored (along with former Guardian farmhand Raynel Delgado) on Ezequiel Duran’s fourth inning double that gave the Aguilas their first lead of the game.

Angel Martinez (CF, Estrellas - Thursday): 0-4, 4 K - Nowhere to go but up for Martinez after he opened his Dominican campaign with golden sombrero.

Johnathan Rodriguez (LF, Carolina - Wednesday): 2-for-5, 3 RBIs - The highlight of the day for Guardians players in the winter leagues was Rodriguez in Puerto Rico. The 26-year-old drove in the game-tying run in the top of the sixth with an RBI single to center field and then a line drive to right plated two in the midst of a four-run seventh. That lead would not hold and the Carolina squad suffered their first loss of the season, but Rodriguez was the definite bright spot for the team.

Johnathan Rodriguez (RF, Carolina - Thursday): 0-4, 2 K, 1 Outfield Assist - Rodriguez didn’t hit well on Thursday but, to be fair, none of the Gigantes were. Heck, none of the Indios were, either. They just happened to be the team to hit a home run first.

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Next Year in Cleveland

Cleveland Guardians Offseason Prospect Report 11/15-22/25

Weekly recap on the Guardians players in Winter Leagues

Matthew Kennell, Arthur Kinney, and Justin Lada

Nov 23

Guardians Prospects

Angel Genao (Backup SS, LIDOM All-Stars - Saturday): 0-0, 1 R, 1 BB - Genao, who entered the game in the bottom of the seventh, scored the final run of the day at Citi Field after walking in his only plate appearance in the top of the ninth.

Gabriel Arias (SS, La Guaira - Saturday): 1-4, 1 RBI, 1 K, 1 E - Arias’ line-drive single to right in the top of the first got the scoring started in Puerto La Cruz on Saturday.

Gabriel Arias (DH, La Guaira - Sunday): 2-for-4, R, HR, 2 RBIs - Arias drove in runs in two different plate appearances with an RBI single in the second and lead-off homerun in the fifth. The longball is his third of the LVBP season and he now has 13 RBIs. In three of his four at-bats, Arias had runners in scoring position but struck out in two of those three tries.

Jaison Chourio (PH, Zulia - Sunday): 0-for-1 - Chourio stepped in as a pinch hitter in the midst of a tie game in the bottom of the seventh but struck out to lead off the inning. The team would load the bases later on but did not scratch across the go-ahead run. Chourio pinch hit for the catcher spot and was removed for the need defensively.

Angel Martinez (CF-RF, Estrellas - Monday): 1-3, 3 R, 1 BB, 1 HBP - Martinez rebounded from a golden sombrero-marred LIDOM season debut by reaching thrice in a two-run effort.

Angel Genao (SS, Aguilas - Monday): 1-4, 1 R, 1 BB, 1 K - Genao extended his hit streak to four games with his third straight one-hit performance.

Jaison Chourio (backup CF, Zulia - Monday): 1-4, 1 BB - Chourio, who entered the game after starting RF Yonathan Perlaza left the game in the second with an injury (starting CF Simon Muzziotti moved to RF), made the most of his unexpected playing time, reaching safely multiple times for the third straight game in which he had multiple plate appearances.

Angel Genao (starting SS, Aguilas - Tuesday): 3-3, 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 S, 1 SB - Genao was productive in all four of his plate appearances and stole his fourth base of the Dominican campaign before being pulled late in the Cibao side’s blowout victory.

Angel Martinez (CF, Estrellas - Tuesday): 1-3, 1 R, 1 HR, 1 RBI - Martinez’s 365-foot homer (97.4 MPH exit velo) in the bottom of the eighth was all that kept the Estrellas from being shut out on Tuesday night.

Jaison Chourio (CF, Zulia - Tuesday): 3-6, 2 RBI, 1 K, 1 SB - After coming in as an injury replacement on Monday, Chourio got the start on Tuesday and responded with hsi first three-hit game of the Venezuelan season.

Carlos Hernandez (RP, Caracas - G1 Tuesday): BS (3), 1 IP, 2 H, 1 R (earned), 1 BB, 1 K - the blown saves just keep coming for Hernandez in Venezuela, with this one sending the opener of Tuesday’s twi-night doubleheader into extras.

Johnathan Rodriguez (RF, Carolina - Tuesday): 0-5, 2 K - Not Rodriguez’s best night of the season, to say the least.

Angel Martinez (CF-RF, Estrellas - Wednesday): 1-for-3, R, 2B, BB, CS - It was an eventful day for Martinez at the plate, on the basepaths and in the outfield on Wednesday. He led off the second inning with a walk and then was safe at second base trying to steal thanks to an error. He later came around to score as an unearned run and later doubled to begin the fourth inning. He spent the first seven innings in center field and then was moved to right during a defensive adjustment.

Johnathan Rodriguez (RF, Carolina - Wednesday): 2-for-4, R, 2B, RBI - Rodriguez was moved all the way up to the number two spot in the batting order on Wednesday and continued to excel at the plate. Rodriguez had multiple hits and showed that yesterday’s 0-for-5 effort is not the norm. Rodriguez is batting .324 with an .872 OPS in eight games, the eighth-best mark in the LBPRC thus far.

Jaison Chourio (CF, Aguilas - Thursday): 3-4, 2 R, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 SB, 1 E - Chourio followed up his three-hit Tuesday with another trio of singles on Thursday. Speaking of singles, the lack of extra-base hits (one double and one homer, neither of theme coming after October 26) is a bit of a concern.

Johnathan Rodriguez (starting RF, Thursday): 1-1, 2 BB - J-Rod reached safely in all three plate appearances on Thursday before being pinch-hit for in the seventh frame of a blowout loss.

Angel Genao (SS, Águilas - Friday G1): 1-4, 1 RBI, 1 K - Genao has reached safely in 14 straight games with multiple plate appearances after extending his hit streak to six games in the opener of last night’s twin bill.

Angel Martinez (RF, Estrellas - Friday G1): 0-5, 3 K - Martinez’s disastrous Game 1 was reminiscent of his LIDOM season debut (4 Ks in as many PAs).

Angel Martinez (starting CF, Estrellas - Friday G2): 0-1, 1 R, 2 HBP - Martinez was pulled from the game for a defensive replacement in the fifth frame. While the reason for his removal is unknown, it is concerning that he was plunked twice in the first four frames of the contest.

Jaison Chourio (CF, Zulia - Friday): 0-4, 1 BB, 1 Outfield Assist, 1 E - Chourio’s hot streak came to a screeching halt on Friday night with his first hitless game in five days.

Carlos Hernandez (RP, Caracas - Friday): S (2), 1 IP, 1 BB - Hernandez’s season of extremes continues in Venezuela with two saves and three blown saves in his first five outings of the LVBP campaign.

Johnathan Rodriguez (RF, Carolina - Friday): 0-4, 1 R, 1 BB - Rodriguez maintained his Thursday momentum in the first, walking and later scoring, but posted an 0-fer the rest of the night.

Angel Genao (SS, Aguilas - Saturday): 1-4, K, 2B - Despite his relative lack of power this winter, Genao is having a good campaign hitting .338/.385/.380 in 23 games.

Angel Martinez (DH, Orientales - Saturday): 0-4, BB, SB - Martinez continues to have a slow winter league though he’ll probably come to camp as a roster lock.

Jaison Chourio (CF, Aguilas - Saturday): 1-5, RBi, 2K - Like Genao, Chourio is playing well in the winter leagues albeit without power. His 12 K/10 BB ratio in 18 games feels very passive, but pitching hi this league probably isn’t good enough out there to expose it.

Johnathan Rodriguez (DH, Carolina): 0-2, K - Rodriguez’s OPS in Puerto Rico is hovering around the 700s with four extra base hits. Nothing too impressive for someone who should be able to dominate this league the way he does in Triple-A.

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Next Year in Cleveland

Cleveland Guardians Offseason Prospect Report 11/23-25/25

Genao stays steady in Dominican, Chourio delivers walkoff in Venezuela

Matthew Kennell and Arthur Kinney
Nov 26


Guardians Prospects:

Carlos Hernandez (RP, Caracas): 1.0 IP, H, R, 0 BBs, K - Hernandez surrendered a solo homerun that doubled the Tiburones’ lead from one to two but was effective aside from one bad pitch. He threw nine total pitches, seven of them for strikes in the loss.

Jaison Chourio (CF, Zulia - Sunday): 1-for-4, 2 R, 2B, BB - Chourio reached base twice in the game and scored on both instances. He drew a walk as the first batter of the contest and later scored and then recorded a double in the second inning to spark a two-out rally for a run. Along with serving as the leadoff hitter in the first, he was also the first batter to step into the box in the fourth and seventh but did not find the same success with a strikeout and flyout in those plate appearances.

Angel Martinez (CF, Estrellas - Sunday): 1-for-4 - Just one hit for Martinez on the day, a one-out liner to right in the sixth inning, as he struggles to find his footing in LIDOM.

Johnathan Rodriguez (RF, Carolina - Sunday): 3-for-4, 2B, 2 RBIs, BB - Rodriguez was the Guardians highlight of the day on Sunday with a 3-for-4 effort that featured a two-run double that gave his team the lead in the bottom of the fifth inning. He added singles in the seventh and ninth innings, but neither resulted in a run scored. He has done an exceptional job after he moved up to the number two batter in the Carolina lineup.

Milan Tolentino (2B, Hermosillo - Sunday): 0-for-4 - It was an unsuccessful debut in the Mexican League for the 24-year-old Milan Tolentino with a hitless day, but we look forward to seeing what he can do moving forward this winter for Hermosillo.

Angel Genao (SS, Aguilas - Monday): 0-2, 1 R, 2 BB - Even on a hitless night, Genao still produces.

Angel Genao (SS, Aguilas - Tuesday): 1-3, 1 R, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 1 E - Genao resumed normal service with a two-run go-ahead single in the second after seeing a seven-game hit streak end on Monday. Speaking of streaks, Genao has reached safely in 16 straight games in which he has multiple plate appearances.

Angel Martinez (CF, Estrellas - Tuesday): 1-2, 1 R, 1 RBI, 2 BB, 1 SB - Martinez reached thrice for the first time this season on Tuesday thanks to his first multi-walk performance of the Dominican campaign. Next goal: a multi-hit LIDOM effort.

Jaison Chourio (CF, Zulia - Tuesday): 1-4, 1 RBI, 1 SF, 1 SB - While Chourio did extend his on-base streak in games wit multiple plate appearances to nine with leadoff single in the bottom of the first, his most notable contribution came on the other end of the game in the form of a walk-off sac fly.

Carlos Hernandez (RP, Caracas - Tuesday): H (1), 0.2 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 1 K - Hernandez pitched in a setup role for the first time this season and, while not a thing of beauty, his effort was enough to earn him his first hold of the Venezuelan campaign.

Johnathan Rodriguez (RF, Carolina - Tuesday): 0-4, 2 K - Another case of J-Rod participating in a general offensive malaise on the part of the Gigantes.

Milan Tolentino (SS, Hermosillo - Tuesday): 0-3, 1 BB, 2 K - At least Tolentino got on base on Tuesday.

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