Three words explain why Tanner Bibee is smart to sign Guards deal — Terry Pluto

Updated: Mar. 23, 2025, 6:00 a.m.|Published: Mar. 23, 2025, 6:00 a.m.

By Terry Pluto, cleveland.com

CLEVELAND, Ohio — There will be some agents who will say Tanner Bibee never should have signed a five-year, $48 million contract extension with the Guardians.

The Cleveland ace has a chance to be a star. He could have waited, maybe signed a more lucrative contract later. He turned 26 on March 5. Yes, free agency was his after the 2028 season. He’d start to cash in on arbitration deals following the 2026 season.

I have three words for those who second-guess Bibee’s decision: TOMMY JOHN SURGERY.

A March 11 Wall Street Journal article by Jared Diamond reported that Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery is up 170% in the majors and minors since 2010.

That’s 170% in 15 years.

I’ve read various estimates of how many current MLB pitchers have had Tommy John surgery — it’s somewhere in the area of 35%.

Let’s make it 1 of 3.

The Guardians have three pitchers recovering from the surgery right now: Shane Bieber, Trevor Stephan and John Means.

The surgery is so prevalent, the Guardians signed Bieber and Means in the offseason after they had the surgery.

Not that anyone ever asks, but I’d advise any young pitcher to sign the first long-term deal offered. Bibee’s decision is wise. It sets him up to be a free agent after the 2029 season (when he makes $21 million). Cleveland has a $21 million option on him for 2030. If the Guardians pick it up, Bibee rakes in more cash and can be a free agent at the age of 32.






Good deal for both sides

Bibee is the latest phenom to come through Cleveland’s pitching factory. He was a fifth-round pick in 2021 out of California-Fullerton. He threw only 148 minor league innings (2.13 ERA) and was in the major by 2023.

Since then, Bibee has a 22-12 record and a 3.25 ERA with Cleveland.

His contract for this season was $812,000 before the new deal. With his $2 million signing bonus, that rises to $5 million.

None of this is to say Bibee will be injured and need surgery. But Bibee should rest easier after signing this contract.

One of his role models is Shane Bieber, who turned down chances to sign extensions in the past. Bieber pitched two games in 2024, then head to the operating room for Tommy John surgery.

He re-signed with Cleveland. It’s a two-year deal with $16 million guaranteed and a chance to earn more. But it’s not close to what he would have received with some of those extension offers.






A little history

In 2015, Corey Kluber was coming off a Cy Young season. He signed a five-year, $38 million extension with Cleveland before the 2016 season. The team also had team options for future seasons. He won another Cy Young Award in 2017.

By 2019, he had shoulder problems and threw only 35 2/3 innings. His salary for that year was $17 million. Cleveland picked up his 2020 option ($17.5 million) and then traded him to Texas for Emmanuel Clase.

Kluber pitched only one game for Texas in 2020.

He made $34 million in those final two years as he dealt with major injuries.

In 2015, Carlos Carrasco signed a four-year extension. In 2019, he was diagnosed with leukemia. He came back and pitched. He also approached Cleveland for another extension. Carrasco had Tommy John surgery in 2012. He wanted security, and the team worked out a second extension for him.

In 2019-20, he pitched a grand total of 148 innings. He was paid $20 million.

At the age of 38, Carrasco has just made the Yankees' opening day roster. Why? Because ace Gerrit Cole went down with … you guessed it … Tommy John surgery.

There are a lot of reasons for the epidemic of elbow injuries. Not only is it the emphasis on velocity and radar gun readings, but also spin rates that measure the rotation of breaking balls. The faster the spin, the sharper the break … and also more stress on the elbow.

The new contract sets up Bibee for life in terms of financial security. It also is an example for other young pitchers to follow. Take the money now and you’ll have much less to worry about later.

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Lots of middle IF depth remains with Brito and Martinez in Columbus; Genao moving up; Francisca rising far below.
And OF depth is thin so it makes some sense but not a lot.

Get rid of those 4 last words and you got it. Add that Freeman is never going to hit 20 home runs and steal 20 bases and be a strong armed outfielder or be 6'5" and bat fifth.

Jones coming off injury was fighting for his spot on the Rockies against a hot shot rookie. No options so he was going to be designated for assignment or released. Might have been pressing. Everyone has complained about the lack of outfielders. Certainly helps with that.

Jones needs to reestablish himself as an offensive force. Great in 2023; hurt in 24; don't know why his spring training mediocrity should be written off due to facing competition. He cut down on his strikeouts and he warmed up as the spring went along but he needs to show a lot more to be a No. 5 hitter. Is he better than Brennnan? At draft time he certainly was assumed to be. Unlike some folks here I don't have defnitive certainty about any career paths.

The two players I would like to see get the most at bats this year is Kwan and Ramirez. That would assume Ramirez will be hitting second although I'd rather see him hitting 3rd.

LF KWAN
3B RAMIREZ
THOMAS CF
1B SANTANA

DH NOEL VS LH
DH MANZARDO VS RH

RF NOLAN/BRENNAN
2B ARIAS
SS ROCCHIO
C NAYLOR

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Please allow me to introduce myself.

Some folks here !

That's you!
We used to have other Folks here who were certain of things too; whatever happened to Frank?

JIm Bowden at the Athletic posts his ranking of the 30 lineups to "debate and discuss"
Somehow the Guardians don't make the top of the list

1. Dodgers
2. Braves
3. Rangers
4 Mets
5. Dbacks aided by their new first baseman
6 Phillies
7. Padres
not a lot of love for the AL in general
8. Red Sox
9 Brewers
10. Orioles
11 Yankees
12. Astros
13. First in the AL Central for Bowden: Royals
14. Blue Jays, noting their new 2B
15. Twins
16. Cubs
17. Could be worse: the Guardians
18. Reds
19. Nationals
20. A's
21. Mariners
22. Angels
23. Giants
24. Tigers
25.. Rays
26. Rockies
27. Cards
28. Pirates
29. Marlins
30. the woefulSox

probably can't read it all unless you're a subscriber, but just in case:
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/622573 ... dailyemail


17. Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians lost the right side of their infield this past offseason, trading first baseman Josh Naylor to the Diamondbacks and second baseman Andrés Giménez to the Blue Jays. Cleveland’s offense is led by superstar José Ramírez, who is coming off a season with 39 home runs and 41 stolen bases, but it will have to depend on 38-year-old Carlos Santana, who replaces Naylor at first, and young players such as DH Kyle Manzardo to supply additional power. Left fielder Steven Kwan will provide traffic at the top of the lineup; he led the team in on-base percentage last year with a .368 mark. [This may have been written before the Jones return deal was announced; Nolan version 2023 would be a nice boost to the offense.

Bowden offers a 26 man roster for an All-MLB Breakout team which includes

Gavin Williams, RHP, Guardians
Age: 25
Height: 6-6 Weight: 250

Williams had a strong rookie season in 2023, posting a 3.29 ERA over 16 starts but with 4.1 walks per nine innings. Last year he dealt with injuries, logging a 4.86 ERA but a much lower FIP (3.67) over 16 starts; he also reduced his walk rate to 3.8 per nine innings. Now if he can just get the walk rate under 3.0 per nine, and stay healthy, he should have a breakout season. Williams ranked in the 88th percentile in fastball velocity and in the 96th percentile in extension, which makes his mid-90s fastball look like high-90s to hitters. Batters hit .155 against his curveball and .205 against the cutter. When his command and control arrive, so will he.

What I’m hearing about the Guardians: Tanner Bibee, Nolan Jones, Triston McKenzie

A batch of thoughts on a slew of recent Cleveland Guardians developments…

The Nolan Jones trade
Let’s rewind 28 months, to when the Guardians dealt Jones to the Colorado Rockies for infield prospect Juan Brito. They coveted Brito, as evidenced by the fact that they had to stick him on their 40-man roster even though he was in A-ball. They were willing to reserve a spot for a player several years away from the majors.
They also felt they had sufficient corner outfield depth to withstand Jones’ departure. Steven Kwan had secured left field, and they had Will Brennan, Oscar Gonzalez, Will Benson and George Valera to vie for right field.

Whoops. Jones enjoyed a ravishing rookie season in 2023, and other than Kwan, the Guardians’ outfield was a mess.

OK, back to the present. The Guardians still like Brito, who will begin the year at Triple A but seems poised to unseat Gabriel Arias at some point this season. Now they have Jones, too.

Front office executives make the rounds at the end of spring training each year, sorting through who will and won’t make each club’s Opening Day roster, trying to find some odd men out who might fit their puzzle. The Rockies, prioritizing other outfielders, made Jones expendable, since he’s out of minor-league options.

The Rockies gauged the Guardians’ interest in trading for him. The Guardians felt Jones offered a higher ceiling than Brennan, who was slated to share right field with Jhonkensy Noel. Prized prospect Chase DeLauter’s struggle to stay healthy added to their motivation. Colorado asked for Freeman, and Cleveland was confident it had enough depth in the middle infield/utility spots. The deal materialized quickly since the Guardians didn’t need to complete as much background work given their history with Jones.
In fact, the Guardians had already informed Brennan he had made the Opening Day roster, a message they had to later rescind. Brennan will begin the year at Triple A.

Freeman’s hit tool is why he was a second-rounder and a top prospect. Perhaps he’ll find plenty of space in the Coors Field outfield to deposit singles and doubles. Regular playing time should help, too. In Cleveland, though, he had a limited ceiling. Even if he would have wrestled away some playing time from Arias, his long-term fit was likely as a utility player, with Brito and top prospect Travis Bazzana on the horizon. Furthermore, he was blocked in center field by Lane Thomas, for at least this season.
So, the Guardians flipped him for a familiar face (and a close friend).

Guardians top prospect rankings, per MLB Pipeline:

2019: 1. Triston McKenzie, 2. Nolan Jones, 3. Tyler Freeman
2020: 1. Nolan Jones, 2. Tyler Freeman, 3. Bo Naylor
2021: 1. Nolan Jones, 2. Triston McKenzie, 3. Tyler Freeman

Jones maintained relationships with a slew of Cleveland coaches, including Grant Fink (Cleveland’s new hitting coach, who worked with Jones in the minors), outfield coach J.T. Maguire, defensive coach Kai Correa and special assistant Tom Wiedenbauer.

What can Jones provide? He’ll strike out at a high clip, but he typically boasts an elite walk rate and has a ton of power. He also can steal bases when healthy, and he has boasted the strongest outfield arm in the league since he became a major leaguer. That’s a tantalizing skill set, which makes this a risk worth taking.

That prolific rookie season wasn’t simply a product of the Colorado altitude, either.

2023 at home: .306/.398/.530 slash line
2023 on road: .288/.380/.554 slash line

(For what it’s worth, he also crushed lefties in 2023, which had been a departure from the norm for him.)

The Guardians do have concerns about whether Jones can stay healthy and rack up 400-450 plate appearances. Back and knee injuries derailed his 2024 season.

“We are going to have to manage his workload appropriately,” general manager Mike Chernoff said.

Next from Meisel:

But as the draft approached, he did hold a bit of power. No team was going to overextend financially to attract him to their organization, so he could split organizations into two buckets: those he would sign with and those he would avoid. The Guardians made the nice list. They were known for converting college starters with so-so stuff into capable big-leaguers.

It was a perfect marriage. Bibee started throwing harder, refined his secondary offerings and, poof, less than two years after the Guardians took him with the 156th pick, he made his debut.

He finished second in the AL Rookie of the Year voting, which earned him a full year of service time and sped up the timeline on extension talks. The two sides chatted last spring, but the Guardians’ offer would guarantee Bibee about half of what he ultimately secured a year later. Bibee was disappointed at the lack of progress in the negotiations, but he gained more leverage with a strong sophomore season in which he evolved into the heart and soul of the rotation.

“Everyone wants to be that guy that the manager looks at and hands the ball to,” Bibee told The Athletic this spring.

Manager Stephen Vogt handed him the ball on short rest against the Yankees in Game 5 of the ALCS, Cleveland’s final game of 2024. He’ll hand him the ball again Thursday for their first game of 2025.

The two camps held off-and-on conversations for several months before settling on the final details. Bibee, league sources told The Athletic, will receive a $2 million signing bonus, plus annual salaries of $3 million in 2025, $4 million in 2026, $7 million in 2027, $10 million in 2028 and $21 million in 2029, plus either a $21 million salary in 2030 or a $1 million buyout.

It’s understandable if your first thought is that the Guardians will trade him before that salary balloons in 2029. Keep in mind, by then, there will be a new collective-bargaining agreement (A salary cap? A salary floor? Revamped revenue sharing/TV deal setups?) and new ownership in power in Cleveland. Who knows what the landscape will be? For many teams, $21 million for a frontline starter is a bargain.
The Tanner Bibee extension
Bibee had some leverage entering the 2021 draft. Based on intel from scouts, he was ticketed for the fifth or sixth round. He was a college junior at Cal State Fullerton, but with a lost COVID season, he was a 22-year-old who was ready to go pro.

He wasn’t thrilled with his amateur production; he anchored a rotation during a few of the program’s rare seasons without an NCAA Tournament appearance. He said his heater was “flat” and his breaking balls looked too alike.
As it stands, Bibee can hit the free-agent market before either his age-31 or age-32 season. If he’s still a durable starter, he can land another lucrative deal.

With any player, especially this early in a career, there are plenty of risks and rewards to weigh. Bibee was set to earn about the league minimum in 2025, in the neighborhood of $760,000. After this season, he would have been eligible for three seasons of arbitration. He’ll likely be worth more to the Guardians in the next few years than the salary he’ll earn, but that’s a result of MLB’s pay structure. It takes a while for young, productive players to get what they deserve.

And for pitchers, the grim reaper is always lurking, scalpel in hand.

Bibee only needs to look a few lockers away for examples. Shane Bieber resisted long-term offers from the Guardians in the past, but in his contract year, he suffered a torn elbow ligament. He signed a short-term deal with Cleveland to rebuild his value before he again tries to cash in on a free-agent deal. Triston McKenzie was in talks with the Guardians on a long-term deal in the spring of 2023 before he suffered a shoulder injury and then an elbow injury. He’s still searching for his 2022 form.

Bibee no longer has to worry about the financial ramifications of suffering an injury. He has $48 million guaranteed — and, in all likelihood, $68 million — just three and a half years after being an unheralded draft pick.

And Meisel on McKenzie

The Triston McKenzie saga
There’s one example the Guardians can (and should) point to as they attempt to resurrect McKenzie’s career through hoping, praying and wishing while flicking pennies into the fountain at the mall.

Carlos Carrasco — who, by the way, at the age of 38, will open the season in the Yankees’ rotation — always had the stuff, but couldn’t put it all together. He debuted in 2009, briefly pitched in the big leagues in 2010, had a pedestrian 2011, missed 2012 following elbow surgery, struggled in 2013 and, after a rough start in 2014, shifted to the bullpen.
The directive was simple: In a relief role, there’s no time to waste. You’re throwing 25 pitches, not 95, so go attack every hitter you encounter.

For three and a half months, it worked. Carrasco returned to the rotation in mid-August and logged a 1.30 ERA in 10 starts to close out the season. He never looked back. He became a consistent workhorse, a Cy Young Award candidate, the Robin to Corey Kluber’s Batman.

Can McKenzie follow that blueprint as he begins the season in a relief role?

He’s healthy, for one. He was healthy last year, too, but he admitted he wondered whether he should have had surgery to repair the tear in his elbow, and he wasn’t pitching with confidence. It didn’t help that in 2023 a handful of doctors offered varying advice when he sought opinions on how to navigate his injury.

That’s all in the past now, though McKenzie still didn’t look sharp this spring. The Guardians are hoping a role change will offer him a boost similar to the one Carrasco received more than a decade ago. His mid-90s fastball velocity this spring was encouraging. The Guardians want him to throw his curveball and slider for strikes so he isn’t as predictable. If he can mix in more secondary pitches for strikes, hitters won’t be able to sit on his fastball and whack it the way they did in 2024.

Hitters vs. McKenzie's pitches in 2024
Fastball
0.303 AVG
0.652 SLG
10.3% WHIFF RATE

Curveball
0.176
0.341
37.3%

Slider
0.143
0.143
37.6%

What I’m hearing about the Guardians: Tanner Bibee, Nolan Jones, Triston McKenzie Aug 12, 2022; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Cleveland Guardians designated hitter Nolan Jones (33) hits a single against the Toronto Blue Jays in the seventh inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
By Zack Meisel


March 24, 2025Updated 3:41 pm MST

A batch of thoughts on a slew of recent Cleveland Guardians developments…
The Nolan Jones trade

Let’s rewind 28 months, to when the Guardians dealt Jones to the Colorado Rockies for infield prospect Juan Brito. They coveted Brito, as evidenced by the fact that they had to stick him on their 40-man roster even though he was in A-ball. They were willing to reserve a spot for a player several years away from the majors.

They also felt they had sufficient corner outfield depth to withstand Jones’ departure. Steven Kwan had secured left field, and they had Will Brennan, Oscar Gonzalez, Will Benson and George Valera to vie for right field.

Whoops. Jones enjoyed a ravishing rookie season in 2023, and other than Kwan, the Guardians’ outfield was a mess.

OK, back to the present. The Guardians still like Brito, who will begin the year at Triple A but seems poised to unseat Gabriel Arias at some point this season. Now they have Jones, too.

Front office executives make the rounds at the end of spring training each year, sorting through who will and won’t make each club’s Opening Day roster, trying to find some odd men out who might fit their puzzle. The Rockies, prioritizing other outfielders, made Jones expendable, since he’s out of minor-league options.

The Rockies gauged the Guardians’ interest in trading for him. The Guardians felt Jones offered a higher ceiling than Brennan, who was slated to share right field with Jhonkensy Noel. Prized prospect Chase DeLauter’s struggle to stay healthy added to their motivation. Colorado asked for Freeman, and Cleveland was confident it had enough depth in the middle infield/utility spots. The deal materialized quickly since the Guardians didn’t need to complete as much background work given their history with Jones.

In fact, the Guardians had already informed Brennan he had made the Opening Day roster, a message they had to later rescind. Brennan will begin the year at Triple A.

Freeman’s hit tool is why he was a second-rounder and a top prospect. Perhaps he’ll find plenty of space in the Coors Field outfield to deposit singles and doubles. Regular playing time should help, too. In Cleveland, though, he had a limited ceiling. Even if he would have wrestled away some playing time from Arias, his long-term fit was likely as a utility player, with Brito and top prospect Travis Bazzana on the horizon. Furthermore, he was blocked in center field by Lane Thomas, for at least this season.

So, the Guardians flipped him for a familiar face (and a close friend).

Guardians top prospect rankings, per MLB Pipeline:

2019: 1. Triston McKenzie, 2. Nolan Jones, 3. Tyler Freeman
2020: 1. Nolan Jones, 2. Tyler Freeman, 3. Bo Naylor
2021: 1. Nolan Jones, 2. Triston McKenzie, 3. Tyler Freeman

Jones maintained relationships with a slew of Cleveland coaches, including Grant Fink (Cleveland’s new hitting coach, who worked with Jones in the minors), outfield coach J.T. Maguire, defensive coach Kai Correa and special assistant Tom Wiedenbauer.

What can Jones provide? He’ll strike out at a high clip, but he typically boasts an elite walk rate and has a ton of power. He also can steal bases when healthy, and he has boasted the strongest outfield arm in the league since he became a major leaguer. That’s a tantalizing skill set, which makes this a risk worth taking.

That prolific rookie season wasn’t simply a product of the Colorado altitude, either.

2023 at home: .306/.398/.530 slash line
2023 on road: .288/.380/.554 slash line

(For what it’s worth, he also crushed lefties in 2023, which had been a departure from the norm for him.)

The Guardians do have concerns about whether Jones can stay healthy and rack up 400-450 plate appearances. Back and knee injuries derailed his 2024 season.

“We are going to have to manage his workload appropriately,” general manager Mike Chernoff said.
The Tanner Bibee extension

Bibee had some leverage entering the 2021 draft. Based on intel from scouts, he was ticketed for the fifth or sixth round. He was a college junior at Cal State Fullerton, but with a lost COVID season, he was a 22-year-old who was ready to go pro.

He wasn’t thrilled with his amateur production; he anchored a rotation during a few of the program’s rare seasons without an NCAA Tournament appearance. He said his heater was “flat” and his breaking balls looked too alike.

But as the draft approached, he did hold a bit of power. No team was going to overextend financially to attract him to their organization, so he could split organizations into two buckets: those he would sign with and those he would avoid. The Guardians made the nice list. They were known for converting college starters with so-so stuff into capable big-leaguers.

It was a perfect marriage. Bibee started throwing harder, refined his secondary offerings and, poof, less than two years after the Guardians took him with the 156th pick, he made his debut.

He finished second in the AL Rookie of the Year voting, which earned him a full year of service time and sped up the timeline on extension talks. The two sides chatted last spring, but the Guardians’ offer would guarantee Bibee about half of what he ultimately secured a year later. Bibee was disappointed at the lack of progress in the negotiations, but he gained more leverage with a strong sophomore season in which he evolved into the heart and soul of the rotation.

“Everyone wants to be that guy that the manager looks at and hands the ball to,” Bibee told The Athletic this spring.

Manager Stephen Vogt handed him the ball on short rest against the Yankees in Game 5 of the ALCS, Cleveland’s final game of 2024. He’ll hand him the ball again Thursday for their first game of 2025.

The two camps held off-and-on conversations for several months before settling on the final details. Bibee, league sources told The Athletic, will receive a $2 million signing bonus, plus annual salaries of $3 million in 2025, $4 million in 2026, $7 million in 2027, $10 million in 2028 and $21 million in 2029, plus either a $21 million salary in 2030 or a $1 million buyout.

It’s understandable if your first thought is that the Guardians will trade him before that salary balloons in 2029. Keep in mind, by then, there will be a new collective-bargaining agreement (A salary cap? A salary floor? Revamped revenue sharing/TV deal setups?) and new ownership in power in Cleveland. Who knows what the landscape will be? For many teams, $21 million for a frontline starter is a bargain.

As it stands, Bibee can hit the free-agent market before either his age-31 or age-32 season. If he’s still a durable starter, he can land another lucrative deal.

With any player, especially this early in a career, there are plenty of risks and rewards to weigh. Bibee was set to earn about the league minimum in 2025, in the neighborhood of $760,000. After this season, he would have been eligible for three seasons of arbitration. He’ll likely be worth more to the Guardians in the next few years than the salary he’ll earn, but that’s a result of MLB’s pay structure. It takes a while for young, productive players to get what they deserve.

And for pitchers, the grim reaper is always lurking, scalpel in hand.

Bibee only needs to look a few lockers away for examples. Shane Bieber resisted long-term offers from the Guardians in the past, but in his contract year, he suffered a torn elbow ligament. He signed a short-term deal with Cleveland to rebuild his value before he again tries to cash in on a free-agent deal. Triston McKenzie was in talks with the Guardians on a long-term deal in the spring of 2023 before he suffered a shoulder injury and then an elbow injury. He’s still searching for his 2022 form.

Bibee no longer has to worry about the financial ramifications of suffering an injury. He has $48 million guaranteed — and, in all likelihood, $68 million — just three and a half years after being an unheralded draft pick.
The Triston McKenzie saga

There’s one example the Guardians can (and should) point to as they attempt to resurrect McKenzie’s career through hoping, praying and wishing while flicking pennies into the fountain at the mall.

Carlos Carrasco — who, by the way, at the age of 38, will open the season in the Yankees’ rotation — always had the stuff, but couldn’t put it all together. He debuted in 2009, briefly pitched in the big leagues in 2010, had a pedestrian 2011, missed 2012 following elbow surgery, struggled in 2013 and, after a rough start in 2014, shifted to the bullpen.

The directive was simple: In a relief role, there’s no time to waste. You’re throwing 25 pitches, not 95, so go attack every hitter you encounter.

For three and a half months, it worked. Carrasco returned to the rotation in mid-August and logged a 1.30 ERA in 10 starts to close out the season. He never looked back. He became a consistent workhorse, a Cy Young Award candidate, the Robin to Corey Kluber’s Batman.

Can McKenzie follow that blueprint as he begins the season in a relief role?

He’s healthy, for one. He was healthy last year, too, but he admitted he wondered whether he should have had surgery to repair the tear in his elbow, and he wasn’t pitching with confidence. It didn’t help that in 2023 a handful of doctors offered varying advice when he sought opinions on how to navigate his injury.

That’s all in the past now, though McKenzie still didn’t look sharp this spring. The Guardians are hoping a role change will offer him a boost similar to the one Carrasco received more than a decade ago. His mid-90s fastball velocity this spring was encouraging. The Guardians want him to throw his curveball and slider for strikes so he isn’t as predictable. If he can mix in more secondary pitches for strikes, hitters won’t be able to sit on his fastball and whack it the way they did in 2024.
Hitters vs. McKenzie's pitches in 2024
Fastball

0.303

0.652

10.3%
Curveball

0.176

0.341

37.3%
Slider

0.143

0.143

37.6%

Welcome back to the Guardians Beat newsletter. My name is Tim Stebbins, and this is my first season covering Cleveland for MLB.com.

KANSAS CITY -- Having enjoyed their time in Spring Training, the Guardians are eager for the regular season to get underway.

“The fun part for us is we get to see all the work that’s happened behind the scenes and the preparation that’s gone on for the last two months to get us to this point,” team president Chris Antonetti said.

“But I think we’re all ready to get going and start playing some meaningful games in Kansas City.”

After a thrilling run to the ALCS last fall, the Guardians begin their 2025 journey on Thursday against the Royals. Right-hander Tanner Bibee (who’s fresh off signing a five-year extension with Cleveland) will take the ball for his first Opening Day start.

Cleveland and Kansas City figure to be among four teams (along with the Twins and Tigers) in the mix for the AL Central title this season, which should make for an exciting summer. Here is a look at Cleveland’s season ahead.

What Needs to Go Right? The starting pitching behind Bibee

Bibee emerged as an anchor atop the rotation last season after Shane Bieber underwent Tommy John surgery in April, and Ben Lively was one of Cleveland’s most consistent starters. But the rotation recorded a 4.40 ERA overall (tied for 23rd in the Majors) and tossed 805 innings (24th) while dealing with injuries and inconsistency. Good health and a steady workload from the starting staff will be paramount, certainly before Bieber and John Means (who’s also recovering from Tommy John surgery) work their way back as summertime reinforcements.






Great Unknown -- How does second base shake out?

Second base was a key competition for the Guardians throughout Spring Training, and the picture grew clearer after Tyler Freeman was traded to the Rockies on Saturday. Gabriel Arias and Daniel Schneemann will get the bulk of reps at second to start the season, and with their versatility, Cleveland has an ability to get both in the lineup. Juan Brito (the Guardians’ No. 10 prospect, per MLB Pipeline) figures to make his MLB debut at some point this season, after he was in the mix for the starting job this spring. Will someone emerge as the everyday guy?

Team MVP Will Be … José Ramírez

Of course. Ramírez is a perennial AL MVP candidate who is coming off one of his finest seasons in the Majors -- when he earned his sixth All-Star nod, fifth Silver Slugger Award and finished fifth in league MVP voting. The Guardians will again count on him to be a driving force and a catalyst in their lineup this year, and that order could take on a different look. Ramírez hit second for much of Spring Training, rather than in his usual No. 3 spot, as Cleveland looks to get him as many opportunities to deliver at the plate as possible.

Team Cy Young Will Be ... Tanner Bibee

With all due respect to closer Emmanuel Clase (who finished third in AL Cy Young voting last year), we’re going with Bibee. His status as an organizational cornerstone was further solidified after he signed a five-year contract extension on Saturday. The 26-year-old was the Guardians’ most reliable starter last year, when he led the team in starts (31) and innings (173 2/3) while recording a 3.47 ERA. Bibee’s consistent production was crucial after Bieber underwent Tommy John surgery, and he will again be counted on as a frontline starter this season. Keep an eye on Gavin Williams, too, who had a dominant spring after a tough 2024 campaign.

Bold Prediction … Kyle Manzardo will lead the Guardians in home runs

WoW! That is BOLD!

Last postseason, Manzardo was hitting second in the Guardians’ starting lineup. It spoke to the massive turnaround he experienced last season. He struggled in his first stint in the Majors (.571 OPS in 30 games), was optioned and thrived in his second stint after being recalled in September (.873 OPS in 23 games).

Manzardo adjusted to the rhythms of a DH role and grew more comfortable in it over the course of last season. He’ll split his time there and at first this season with Carlos Santana. If his Cactus League performance (.321/.357/.642, four homers) proves to be an appetizer to the regular season, it will mean big things for him and Cleveland.





APRIL THEME NIGHTS

After a nine-game road trip to open the regular season, the Guardians will be home for 15 of their final 21 games in April. The slate includes a series of theme nights featuring unique giveaways.

April 22 -- Bark in the Park (dog toy giveaway)
April 25 -- Grad Party Night (Guardians graduation cap with tassel)
April 25 -- Youngstown State University Night (co-branded cap)
April 26 -- Kent State University Night (co-branded cap)
April 29 -- Golf Night (plush golf club cover)
April 30 -- Star Wars Night (Star Wars beanie)

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I have my own bold prediction:

Nolan Jones 20 homers, 20 stolen bases, 30 doulbles

As he gives the lower half of the batting order the spark they haven't seen since the glory years.



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Jones reacquainting seamlessly with Guardians: 'Feel like I never left'

6 minutes ago

Tim Stebbins covers the Guardians for MLB.com.

KANSAS CITY -- Nolan Jones was preparing for the Rockies’ Cactus League game on Saturday when he got called in for a meeting. The 26-year-old learned he wasn’t going to play, after all, because he was about to be traded.

At that point, Colorado was unable to inform Jones where he was going. He walked out of the meeting “shook” and wandered hallways within the Rockies’ facility for 45 minutes. Around two hours later, he started to get a good idea of what was happening, upon calling friend and onetime Guardians teammate, Tyler Freeman.

“[Freeman] said he had been traded, and [Cleveland] told him they couldn’t tell him where he was going,” Jones said. “And so I said, ‘I might have an idea of where you’re going.’”

The Guardians and Rockies officially swapped Freeman and Jones on Saturday evening. Wednesday was Jones’ first opportunity to speak to Cleveland media since the deal, after a busy few days since he joined the organization.

“It’s been an absolute whirlwind, but I’m extremely excited,” Jones said.

Of course, Jones isn’t exactly joining a new organization. The Guardians selected him in the second round (55th overall) of the 2016 MLB Draft, and he played six seasons in the Cleveland organization. That included his MLB debut on July 8 in ’22, when he played 28 games in the Majors.

While Jones wasn’t sure initially where Colorado was trading him last weekend, he internally ruled out the Guardians in trying to narrow down his potential destination. He didn’t expect they would look to reacquire him; Cleveland traded Jones to the Rockies for Juan Brito on Nov. 15, 2022.

“When I found out that it was Cleveland, my phone just started buzzing off the charts from all these guys,” Jones said. “… It's very nice that I was able to walk into a clubhouse and kind of feel like I never left.”

The Guardians expect the bulk of Jones’ playing time to come in right field against right-handed pitching, with Jhonkensy Noel starting against lefties. (Will Brennan was optioned to Triple-A Columbus on Monday.) As a power-hitting lefty, Jones’ addition has a lot of upside.

Jones finished fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2023. That season, he slashed .297/.389/.542 and hit 22 doubles and 20 homers with 62 RBIs in just 106 games. He only played in 79 games in 2024 after going on the 10-day injured list twice due to a low back strain. Jones compiled a .227/.321/.320 slash line with three homers.

Jones felt his swing was in a good place after the 2023 season, and he wanted to maintain that feeling heading into ’24. He began to hit on Day 1 of the offseason and kept going.

“I felt like I wore myself out a little bit,” Jones said.

After the back issues persisted throughout the 2024 season, Jones took a different approach to his work this past offseason. For the first month, he focused solely on his physical health, attending physical therapy four times per week, and spending time with his 7-month-old daughter.

Jones said his body feels great right now. If needed, the Guardians can manage his playing time, at least early, in an effort to keep him healthy. Along with Noel, Daniel Schneemann can play right field, and DH-ing is another avenue to manage Jones’ volume.

“Our goal is to try to help keep him out on the field and be as productive as he can,” team president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti said of Jones.

In the short term, the Guardians are hoping to get reacquainted with Jones as quickly as possible.

“Getting traded that close to Opening Day and not knowing anyone could be almost a midseason feel,” manager Stephen Vogt said. “Our group of guys in that clubhouse, they're so welcoming. They're so accepting, and they make sure that everybody feels comfortable right away.

“Nolan feels like he's back at home. He's expressed that, and we're excited to have him.”

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