13203
by rusty2
Minor League year-end awards: Boston Red Sox’s Kristian Campbell is Prospect of the Year
By Keith Law
Sep 17, 2024
80
Other than in Triple A, which has another few days to go, the 2024 minor-league regular season is now in the books, so it’s time for my annual Prospect of the Year award, given to the prospect who showed the best performance in the minor leagues in 2024.
While the process of selecting the top prospects was ultimately subjective, I focused primarily on legitimate prospects who performed well relative to their age, level and experience in pro ball. In short, the younger a player was relative to the other players in his league — especially when compared solely to the players in his league with a chance to have some impact in the majors — the more impressed I was with a strong performance. What a player did in the majors, if he was called up, was irrelevant for this list’s purposes. I do consider age relative to level, so a player like Spencer Horwitz, who hit .335/.456/.514 in Triple A but was 26 years old and repeating the level, doesn’t make the cut.
So, given those criteria, here is my overall Prospect of the Year for 2024, as well as several other players who had outstanding seasons and deserved notice.
(Note: Scouting grades are on a 20-80 scale)
Prospect of the Year: Kristian Campbell, IF/OF, Boston Red Sox
The decision to give the award to Campbell wasn’t even close for me — nobody in the minors had a year to touch Campbell’s. He finished the season with a .330/.439/.558 line across three levels, starting the year with High-A Greenville and finishing it with Triple-A Worcester. That triple-slash line was good for a 179 wRC+*, which was by far the highest of anyone in the minors with at least 400 PA, well ahead of the No. 2 player at a wRC+ of 160. His OBP ranked third among all hitters, his slugging percentage sixth, and his batting average fourth.
This all came with just a 19.9 percent strikeout rate, and it was in his first full year in pro ball. And he did it while playing four skill positions — second, short, center, and third, with more than 200 innings at each of the first three spots.
Campbell was a redshirt freshman at Georgia Tech in 2022 and missed a few more weeks to start 2023 for the Wreck, hitting .376/.484/.549 in 45 games after he joined their lineup for good on March 10. That followed a strong summer the year before playing for Duluth in the wood-bat Northwoods League.
Red Sox area scout Kirk Fredericksson drafted Campbell and told me he believed not just in the skill set, but saw Campbell’s “good makeup and aptitude” to go with it — and when you have an athlete who has those things, you can really bet on their upside. This already looks like a home run of a pick for the Red Sox’s scouting staff, as Campbell tore up pitching — even good pitching — at every level, and now sits as one of the top 50 prospects in baseball.
*(I’ve said before that I don’t believe wRC+ has much predictive value for minor-league position players. I am only using it here as a measure of how good Campbell’s year was.)
Honorable mentions
Walker Jenkins, OF, Minnesota Twins
The best prospect on this list, Jenkins was the Twins’ 2023 first-round pick, fifth overall, but his season started late as he got hurt in his first game of 2024 and missed six weeks with a hamstring injury. After that, he hit .294/.407/.462 across the complex league, Low A and High A, only struggling when he was bumped up to Double A on Sept. 8. I’ll forgive him that last bit, as he’s still just 19 years old.
The Larry Walker comparisons he evoked in high school might turn out to be accurate after all.
Franklin Arias, SS, Boston Red Sox
It’s been a pretty good year for the Boston farm system, with Roman Anthony joining Campbell in reaching Triple A and hitting well at two levels, 2023 first-rounder Kyle Teel also reaching Triple A in his first full pro season, and the 18-year-old Arias tearing up the Florida Complex League with a .355/.471/.584 line before a promotion to Low A in August. He hit .257/.331/.378 at the higher level as one of just a handful of 18-year-olds to play there, and of course did so playing one of the most valuable positions on the field.
The Red Sox’s system has turned around very quickly in the past few years, with some fantastic drafts and a couple of early successes on the international scouting side, as well.
Demetrio Crisantes, IF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Campbell is the biggest breakout prospect in the minors this year, but Crisantes might be a solid No. 2, as the second baseman from Nogales, Ariz., came back from his second (!) Tommy John surgery to hit .341/.429/.492 between the Arizona League and Low A, punctuated by a 57-game on-base streak. He was a seventh-round pick in 2022 but had already reinjured the elbow, so he only DH’d in 2023 and was limited to 23 games, although they were impressive ones — .347/.417/.465, also in the Arizona League.
He’s become one of the Dbacks’ top prospects now that he’s playing a position (Cristantes appeared in games at first, second and third base this season) and has maintained that high rate of hard contact.
Angel Genao, IF, Cleveland Guardians
The 20-year-old Genao returned to Low A to start 2024 but hit so well that Cleveland moved him up to High A after 44 games, and he just kept on hitting, posting a .330/.379/.499 line on the year with a 15.5 percent strikeout rate. He’s a natural shortstop but played some more second and third for High-A Lake County, all skill positions and all places where his bat is very likely to make him a strong regular or more. He even stole 25 bases in 30 attempts for a little more value.
The Guardians had a number of candidates for this honor, including first baseman C.J. Kayfus, their 2023 third-round pick who demolished High A with a .338/.437/.578 line before cooling off in Double A, and catcher Cooper Ingle, their 2023 fourth-round pick who hit .305/.419/.478 in 93 games, mostly in High A.
Others of note
• First baseman Tre’ Morgan was at LSU in 2023 when the Rays took him in the third round, so sending him to Low A to start the year was too conservative. To his credit, he raked there and in High A, posting a .371/.447/.558 line at the higher level with more walks than strikeouts, only hitting the wall at the very end of the season in Double A.
• Second baseman Luke Keaschall, the Twins’ 2023 second-round pick, also reached Double A in his first full season in pro ball, hitting .303/.420/.483 across two levels and earning a spot in the Futures Game.
• Detroit’s top two picks from 2023 both had great seasons, but the second-rounder, middle infielder Kevin McGonigle, outshone the first-rounder, outfielder Max Clark, while both were still playing. McGonigle hit .326/.407/.470 in Lakeland, then moved up to High A but broke his hamate bone, ending his run there after just 14 games. Clark had a solid year as well, hitting .279/.372/.421 across the same two levels and stealing 29 bases in 34 attempts while playing all of his innings in centerfield.
• Rockies centerfielder Robert Calaz was the best hitter in the Arizona League, hitting .349/.462/.651 as an 18-year-old, and was doing more of the same in 13 games for Low-A Fresno before a minor shoulder injury ended his season.
Pitcher of the year: Matt Wilkinson, LHP, Cleveland Guardians
The man they call “Tugboat” was just a 10th-round pick in 2023 out of Central Arizona, a junior college located between Phoenix and Tucson, and all he did in his full-season debut was finish second in the minor leagues in strikeouts with 174.
Wilkinson still tops out in the upper 80s, but he’s got a 55 changeup, has a ton of deception in his delivery, and has a great idea of how to attack hitters — well, minor-league hitters, at least. I’m not that sanguine about his long-term outlook, given how soft the fastball is and the obvious questions about his build, but he had an incredible season across Low and High A, with a 1.90 ERA in 118 2/3 innings.
Honorable mention
Quinn Mathews, LHP, St. Louis Cardinals
This goes to the man who led the minors in strikeouts, Mathews, the Cardinals’ 2023 fourth-round pick out of Stanford. Mathews has seen his velocity jump in pro ball and he still has the plus changeup that made him Stanford’s ace as a senior. His record was only marred by some struggles in three Triple-A starts to end the year, but in his defense, that was his third promotion of the season and he may have been fatigued by that point. Travel’s hard, man.
Others of note include the Angels’ Caden Dana, who had a 2.52 ERA and 27 percent strikeout rate as a 20-year-old in Double A before his premature promotion to the majors, and the Rays’ Santiago Suarez, who walked just 21 in 111 2/3 innings (4.7 percent) with 115 strikeouts as a 19-year-old in Low A.
Advertisement
2024 Draft debuts
Of the high picks from the 2024 draft who actually were allowed to play this summer, very few really excelled in their pro debuts, and quite a few struggled, including Charlie Condon, Walker Janek, and Vance Honeycutt, whose first summer in the minors ended with 11 K’s in 20 PA in High A.
The decision to shift the complex leagues to a spring start meant that most high school draft picks debuted in the unofficial “bridge” leagues held at the Arizona and Florida complexes, where games don’t count and nobody keeps stats. That means that these kids went from playing at least somewhat meaningful games in high school to playing pretend games in front of no fans. I may not be a player development guy, but I find it hard to believe this is helping anyone become a better baseball player.
Best pro debut: Cam Smith, 3B, Chicago Cubs
Smith, the No. 14 pick this July, hit .315/.400/.622 in 130 PA across three levels, finishing in Double A, with just a 17.7 percent strikeout rate. On Aug. 20, he was still in Low A, but from that point on he played in 22 games and had hits in 20 of them — despite the two promotions — while striking out just 13 times in 99 PA.
The Cubs have had quite a bit of success in the first round the past few years, with Matt Shaw, Cade Horton (when healthy), and Jordan Wicks their last three top selections; Smith looks like he’ll continue that winning streak.
Honorable mention: Nick Kurtz, 1B, Oakland A’s
Kurtz might have taken home this honor, but his pro debut ended due to injury after 50 PA. He hit .368/.520/.763 in that brief stint, mostly in Low A plus a couple of games in Double A, where I expect him to start in 2025.