Olney's Latest: Trade Market, Tigers, D'Backs, Beltran

By Mike Axisa [July 16 at 9:47am CST]

In today's Insider-only blog post, Buster Olney says that a high-ranking official told him the "dam is about ready to burst on the trade market." The number of phone calls is multiplying and everyone is getting more serious. "I think that once July 24 hits, that's when you're going to see a bunch of things happen," said an AL official. "There's a lot of talk."

Let's round up Olney's rumors...

The Tigers continue to look for high-end starters, not the third and fourth starter types that flood the market. They had scouts at Ubaldo Jimenez's most recent start.

The Diamondbacks are focused on less expensive relief pitchers, like Brad Ziegler and Jason Isringhausen.

The Mariners are pitching-rich and willing to listen to offers. Erik Bedard's knee may be healthy in time for him to make two starts before the deadline.

Josh Willingham "is going to be traded at some point."

Since the left-handed relief market is so thin, teams have begun scouting right-handed relievers that are effective against lefties. David Pauley, Mike Adams, Koji Uehara, Tyler Clippard, and Joel Peralta fit the bill.

In a tweet, Olney says the Mets are insisting on a top prospect in return for Carlos Beltran. He adds that pressure on the Giants to add a bat is decreasing as their division lead continues to grow.

Carlos Guillan returns to the Tigers lineup tonight, 11 months after having his knee ripped up in a play at second base.

Talks, tweets abound as Deadline looms

By Peter Gammons | MLB.com Columnist | Archive
07/17/11 12:46 PM ET
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This is the way it works today, in July, Trade Deadline dead ahead.

One National League and one Boston scout were doing their normal coverage at a Cubs game in Washington. The NL scout was sitting next to an enthusiastic Red Sox fan, who kept telling the scout that he thought the Red Sox should trade for Matt Garza.

After awhile, the NL scout yelled to his Boston counterpart, two rows in front of him. "I've got a Red Sox fan here who thinks the Sox should trade for Garza."


Minutes later, Garza-to-Boston was a talk radio rumor.

In many ways, this is a fun time. Twitter provides links to a huge volume of information, articles and thought. Trade rumors are inexhaustible.

"But this also is one of the most difficult times of the year for players," says Rockies general manager Dan O'Dowd. "There is so much that floats out there; they hear so much; they worry about where they are going to end up. It's also the time of the year when general managers talk to one another more than any other time, so, naturally, a lot of names are discussed."


O'Dowd has been in the eye of the storm because Ubaldo Jimenez's name has been out there, more prominent than the other starting pitching names definitively on the market, like Wandy Rodriguez, Hiroki Kuroda (who has a complete no trade and would not, according to two East executives, accept a trade to the East Coast before becoming a free agent this fall) and Jeremy Guthrie.

Will the Rockies trade Jimenez? There is, according to the club, a 10 percent chance, if they remain yards behind the Giants. Affording Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez and Jimenez in that market may be difficult a year or two from now.

What would it take, with a club-friendly contract? One or two Major League level players, one of who would move into the Colorado rotation, and at least two prime prospects. In other words, if the Yankees want Jimenez, the Rockies would need a Major League starter, Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances and a bat.

"I do not see Brian Cashman making that trade," says an AL general manager.

As the Padres last winter looked at the Matt Capps case -- non-tendered one winter, traded for Wilson Ramos months later -- they figured that the market for relievers is far greater in the heat of the race in July than it is during the winter, when most teams hope they can cobble together a bullpen the way the Indians have this summer. Many general managers look at starting pitchers and position players as likely to fetch more during the offseason, when C.J. Wilson, Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols will be discussing the GNP of Dubai.

Two weeks away from the Trade Deadline is the prelude to the dance. The Astros have been meeting the past few days to discuss their trade possibilities, which is difficult because GM Ed Wade is in a maze between ownerships. "Right now," says a GM, "they want for Rodriguez what the Rockies want for Ubaldo."

It is clear that good relievers like Heath Bell, Mike Adams and Leo Nunez can be had, and it is a relievers' market. It is also a market in which a half-dozen teams are looking for right-handed-hitting outfielders, but while the Mets wisely approach the deadline trying to figure how much of Carlos Beltran's money to take to get one or two legitimate prospects, the Rockies have essentially backed off moving Ryan Spilborghs, and the Cubs have told suitors they want to hold onto Jeff Baker, that right-handed bat market consists of Conor Jackson, Josh Willingham, Reed Johnson, Lastings Milledge and Jeff Francoeur. The Dodgers would like to shed salary, but they are so crippled there isn't much to shed other than Kuroda and the valuable Jamey Carroll; they're trying to pare Triple-A payroll. Oakland will move the veteran bats and a reliever or two. Seattle won't have a fire sale, and they're not likely to get much for Erik Bedard. Kansas City will do some paring.

"It's really hard for Bill Smith to even think about moving Michael Cuddyer or [Jason] Kubel because they can get back into the race," says a GM. "Oh, they'd move Kevin Slowey, but they naturally think they can win." Another GM says Baltimore is murky because "Andy MacPhail really doesn't know which way [Orioles owner] Peter [Angelos] wants him to go." Washington isn't selling, except for Tyler Clippard; instead, they keep asking for Michael Bourn -- thus far without success -- and had been one of several teams interested in Julio Borbon until his recent injury.

Colorado, like Minnesota, has a history of late charges, as does Tampa Bay, which worries about what would happen if Kyle Farnsworth went down. The Rockies have two young catchers named Jordan Pacheco and Wilin Rosario and could move Chris Iannetta, but the Red Sox have been focused on an outfielder and a pitcher and said they are satisfied with Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Jason Varitek and Ryan Lavarnway.

Two weeks from now, we will know more about Jon Lester's shoulder and Clay Buchholz's back, Bartolo Colon's hamstring, Alex White's finger, the Phillies' bullpen, and on and on and on. In the meanwhile, every joke in the scouts' section is worth a tweet that can become two hours of talk radio.

Peter Gammons is a columnist for MLB.com and analyst for MLB Network. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.

Tigers Interested In Jeremy Guthrie

By Tim Dierkes [July 18 at 11:02am CST]

The Tigers have interest in Orioles righty Jeremy Guthrie, reports Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. The 32-year-old is behind Ubaldo Jimenez and Hiroki Kuroda on Detroit's wish list, however.

Guthrie sports a 4.45 ERA, 5.8 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 1.17 HR/9, and 35.7% groundball rate in 123 1/3 innings this year. He's earning $5.75MM this year, and depending on how his peers do in arbitration, Guthrie could jump to the $10MM range in 2012. Word is that the Orioles will listen on Guthrie, but they'll need to get pitching back in return.

Morosi notes that the Orioles had a Major League scout at Sunday's game between the Triple-A affiliates of the Tigers and Yankees. Not only did the Tigers' second-best pitching prospect Andy Oliver start that contest, but the Tigers' front office instructed manager Phil Nevin to use Charlie Furbush. It appears that the Tigers and Orioles match up well for a Guthrie trade.

Who should buy, sell or hold

Jon Paul Morosi is a national MLB writer for FOXSports.com. He previously covered baseball for the Detroit Free Press and Seattle Post-Intelligencer. He began his journalism career at the Bay City Times in his native Michigan. Follow him on Twitter.

Updated Jul 18, 2011 12:09 PM ET
The months of evaluation and equivocation are nearing an end. It’s time to act in the major leagues.

The July 31 non-waiver trade deadline is less than two weeks away, and the identities of buyers and sellers are becoming more evident. To that end, the first weekend of games after the All-Star break was crucial for a number of clubs.

Here’s a look at how eight of baseball’s “bubble teams” fared — along with my recommendation as to whether they should buy, sell or hold over the next 13 days.

AMERICAN LEAGUE


CHICAGO WHITE SOX
For a team that hasn’t been over .500 for three months, there’s a lot to like about the White Sox.

Chicago began the second half by taking a series from the division-leading Tigers, eliminating any notion that the American League Central will quickly become a two-team race between Detroit and Cleveland.

The early season bullpen woes that threatened to ruin Chicago’s season are a thing of the past. Sergio Santos has converted 18 of 21 save opportunities, very respectable for a first-year closer. The rotation remains one of baseball’s great science experiments, as pitching coach Don Cooper said over the weekend that he plans to use six starters (again) once John Danks returns from the disabled list.

Of course the question with the rotation is quality, not quantity. Gavin Floyd and Edwin Jackson — both of whom are talented but streaky — started the second half with well-earned victories on consecutive days. If that continues, the White Sox will be in the race after Labor Day — even if Jake Peavy’s lack of arm strength remains a concern.

Oh, and I almost forgot: There’s no way Adam Dunn and Alex Rios will be that bad in the second half. The White Sox could always add a reliever, but this is actually a pretty well-rounded team — as long as the veterans stay healthy and perform.

Recommendation: Hold.

MINNESOTA TWINS
“This is the rare Twins season in which we can say on June 1 that they are finished.”

Yeah, I wrote that.

I was wrong.

But at least I had my reasons. On June 1, the Twins were 100 points below their closest competitor in the American League. No AL team had been that far behind the field, that deep into the season, and finished with a winning record, according to STATS LLC.

Well, the Twins have the second-best record in the AL since then. They are only five games under .500. More importantly, they are only five games back in the AL’s black and blue division — even if they’re in fourth place.

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but, yes, the Twins have a chance. They won three of four against the Royals to begin the second half. They do need outside upgrades, though, to mount a serious threat. A shortstop and starting pitcher should be on their wish list, now that right-hander Scott Baker has been shelved.

Recommendation: Buy.

SEATTLE MARINERS
This one has turned into a very easy call.

It was only about one month ago that the Mariners took two of three from the Phillies, fostering hope that their rotation might be good enough to keep them in the AL West race.

Nope. An utter lack of offense, coupled with the Rangers’ return to form, has buried Eric Wedge’s team. The Mariners have lost nine straight after Texas swept them to begin the second half. The only drama left this month is whether Erik Bedard returns from the disabled list in time to be dealt.

An Ichiro trade rumor would put this team in the spotlight . . . but that’s not happening.

Recommendation: Sell.

TAMPA BAY RAYS
In 2008 and again last year, the Rays proved the doubters wrong. It pains me to say this, but I’m among the skeptics this time. That was the case even before Sunday’s exhausting, 1-0, 16-inning loss to the Red Sox.

For the Rays to win the AL East, just about everything needs to go right. That hasn’t been the case this season, for two reasons outside their control: Neither the Red Sox nor the Yankees are having an off year.

Sunday’s defeat dropped the Rays 5-1/2 games out of the AL wild card spot — further back than when they dealt Scott Kazmir to the Angels in August 2009. It’s hard to make the case that the Rays have a great chance to make the playoffs, which is probably what it would take for them to be aggressive buyers.

Rays general manager Andrew Friedman is one of the game’s brightest executives, fully capable of maintaining “buy” and “sell” negotiations at the same time. Frankly, the Rays may trade center fielder B.J. Upton regardless of where they are in the standings. But for a team with one of the majors’ smallest payrolls, the tie goes to the option that saves the most money. So, expect a couple weeks of Johnny Damon and Kyle Farnsworth trade rumors —and let’s not rule out James Shields, either.

Recommendation: Sell.

NATIONAL LEAGUE



CINCINNATI REDS
The Reds, for one, are probably glad baseball’s unbalanced schedule has fostered one of the game’s best rivalries.

The defending NL Central champions were one of baseball’s biggest disappointments in the first half. They stumbled to a 45-47 record, due largely to an inconsistent rotation. But maybe the All-Star break brought needed perspective — and rest. The Reds surged back from the break with a hard-fought series win over their nemesis from St. Louis. All-Star Brandon Phillips won the series opener with a walk-off home run, which could prove to be the pivotal moment of their season.

But to capitalize on the weekend’s momentum, the Reds’ rotation must continue pitching well. In all likelihood, that means an upgrade from the outside, during a season in which young starters Travis Wood and Edinson Volquez have underperformed. Ubaldo Jimenez is on their list — and so is a shortstop.

Recommendation: Buy.

COLORADO ROCKIES
They’ve done it before. That doesn’t mean they’ll do it again.

The Rockies, as even the most casual fans know, are a second-half team. But that isn’t reason to spend millions on deadline upgrades. Colorado is running third in the NL West, 9-1/2 games back of San Francisco, and has yet to show that it has the starting rotation to stay with the defending world champs. The Rockies need the Giants to go on a prolonged losing streak, but the San Francisco rotation is the perfect antidote for precisely that sort of thing.

The Rockies didn’t exactly make a strong statement coming out of the break. They took the first two games against Milwaukee before losing the last two at home to settle for a split.

So, Colorado general manager Dan O’Dowd should start planning for the future. And yes, that means gauging interest in (and quite possibly moving) ace Jimenez.

Recommendation: Sell.

NEW YORK METS
Can we stop trying to pretend like the Mets are on the fringe of this playoff race? They’re not, and this weekend’s series defeat by Philadelphia was the latest evidence.

They aren’t close to being as good as the Phillies and Braves, and so they’re one of the most obvious sellers in the NL. I mean, they already traded Francisco Rodriguez to the Brewers. In all likelihood, Carlos Beltran is next, with the Giants being among the most serious suitors for the switch-hitting outfielder.

Even if Jose Reyes stays — which is looking more likely, due to his stint on the disabled list — there’s a good chance that Beltran won’t be the only Met to go between now and July 31. General manager Sandy Alderson is willing to listen on veteran reliever Jason Isringhausen, too.

Recommendation: Sell.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES
I still don’t know how it happened this quickly, but the Pirates are legitimate contenders.

Their fans deserve a winner, after waiting nearly two decades to see a better-than-.500 record. Now, general manager Neal Huntington is under pressure (the good kind of pressure) to make a deal that increases the odds of that happening. Although it wasn’t a surprise, the Pirates warded off any second-half letdown by opening the second half with a series win against Houston.

The Pirates’ rotation has outperformed even the most optimistic projections, meaning there’s some fear of a second-half regression. The acquisition of a veteran starting pitcher would be a nice hedge against that. The Pirates could also benefit from an upgrade behind the plate, where injuries have thinned their depth.

The upcoming six-game homestand, against the Reds and Cardinals, will be a good test of the Pirates’ mettle early in the second half. But right now, it sure looks like one of baseball’s best stories in 2011 is getting better by the day.

Recommendation: Buy.

How a catcher running the bases approaches a close play at the plate:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TeSKdt-J ... r_embedded

Astros Willing To Trade Hunter Pence

By Ben Nicholson-Smith [July 20 at 5:54pm CST]

The Astros are showing a willingness to trade Hunter Pence, according to ESPN.com's Buster Olney (on Twitter). Rival executives expect GM Ed Wade to trade Pence, Olney reports.

The Braves, who may be close to acquiring a right-handed bat, have enough prospects to pry Pence away from Houston. However, Atlanta has interest in Jonny Gomes and others, including Carlos Beltran. The Pirates have also been eyeing Pence, who will cost a lot in terms of prospects.

Pence, 28, is hitting .315/.356/.478 with 11 home runs. The two-time All-Star is under team control through 2013, but he won't be cheap. He earns $6.9MM this year, so a $10MM payday is within reach next year, with another raise likely in 2013.



Phillies, Royals Discussing Melky Cabrera

By Ben Nicholson-Smith [July 20 at 5:35pm CST]

The Phillies and Royals have discussed a deal that would send Melky Cabrera to Philadelphia, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. The sides have exchanged names, but they aren't close to completing a trade.

Morosi notes that it's unlikely that the Royals will trade both Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur, since that would create openings in next year's outfield. The Royals and Francoeur have a mutual option for 2012 and Cabrera is arbitration eligible after the season.

Phil Anastasia of the Philadelphia Inquirer reported Philadelphia's interest in Cabrera earlier this week. Some Phillies people think the Royals are asking for a "small fortune" for Cabrera, Francoeur and Joakim Soria, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe (on Twitter).

Cabrera earns just $1.25MM this season, so he's considerably cheaper than another one of Philadelphia's targets, Carlos Beltran. Beltran, a switch-hitter like Cabrera, earns $18.5MM this year and though the Mets appear willing to cover a substantial portion of that, they're asking for top young players in return. The Phillies appear to be one of the favorites to acquire Beltran.

Braves Have Interest In Jonny Gomes

By Mike Axisa [July 20 at 4:51pm CST]

The Braves have interest in Jonny Gomes, report Jon Paul Morosi and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter). Earlier this afternoon we heard that Atlanta may be nearing a deal for a right-handed bat, which Gomes is.

Fred Lewis has been getting more and more playing time in left field for the Reds, which is why Gomes is available. He's hitting just .213/.339/.408 this year overall, but he's crushing left-handed pitchers: .340/.446/.547 in 65 plate appearances.

Some more names that have been linked to the Tribe:

Debating the values of Willingham, Ludwick

8 hours ago by KenRosenthal


Eleven days from the non-waiver deadline, the buyers are sounding their usual complaints:

Asking prices are ridiculous, nothing will happen until the sellers turn realistic, etc.

When it comes to two of the top available hitters, the frustration level among some buyers is especially high.
Why?

Because Padres outfielder Ryan Ludwick and Athletics outfielder Josh Willingham are good — but not that good.

As potential free agents, both Ludwick and Willingham are two-month rentals. As players, both are flawed.
Consider Ludwick’s OPS-plus, a statistic that adjusts a player’s OPS to his park and league in an effort to remove biases. Ludwick is at 96 — below the defined league average of 100.

Another oddity about Ludwick: Though he is hitting lefties better than righties this season — something you would expect from a right-handed hitter — his platoon splits in 2009 and ’10 were reversed. He had a .793 OPS against righties in those two seasons, a .672 OPS against lefties.

Willingham, too, comes with questions — he recently spent time on the disabled list with a strained left Achilles, and rival clubs consider him a below-average defender.

So, while Willingham’s OPS-plus is 108 — above the league average — his overall impact might be comparable to Ludwick’s due to his defensive shortcomings.

Let's not get carried away here: Both Ludwick and Willingham are likely to get traded, and both are likely to help their new clubs.

Right now, it’s just a question of price.

— Ken Rosenthal

If the Braves make the playoffs, they better give Jerry Meals a share of the $$$.

That may go down as the worst call in baseball history. What makes him look even worse is that it came in a game that had dragged on so long. It makes him look like he just wanted to go home.

rocky raccoon wrote:If the Braves make the playoffs, they better give Jerry Meals a share of the $$$...
Hillbilly wrote: That may go down as the worst call in baseball history. What makes him look even worse is that it came in a game that had dragged on so long. It makes him look like he just wanted to go home.

To what are you referring?

The call at the plate that ended that long extra inning affair between the Braves and Pirates on Tuesday night.

MLB and the umpire, Jerry Meals, have both came out and admitted he blew it.

Duh, anybody with half a good eyeball could have told you that. And the fact the call came six and a half hours into the game just makes it look like the guy wanted to leave. It was that horrible.

Hideki Irabu found dead; suicide suspected
Craig Calcaterra Jul 28, 2011, 3:24 PM EDT
18 Comments

AP
This is just breaking and, at present, we only have links to stories in Japanese, but apparently former Yankees pitcher Hideki Irabu was found dead at his California home yesterday. Suicide by hanging is suspected. UPDATE: The Yankees have confirmed Irabu’s death.

Irabu has had a troubled post-baseball career. He was arrested in Gardena, California last year for drunk driving. Back in 2008 he was arrested for assaulting a bar manager in Japan after allegedly consuming 20 glasses of beer.

After achieving stardom in Japan, Irabu’s contract was purchased by the San Diego Padres in early 1997. Irabu wanted no part of San Diego, however, and a trade to the Yankees was arranged. Irabu earned World Series rings with the Yankees in both 1998 and 1999, but he fell far short of expectations and drew the ire of George Steinbrenner who famously dubbed him the “fat toad.” The Yankees shipped him off to Montreal for Jake Westrbook following the 1999 season. He lasted two seasons with the Expos and one season with the Rangers before retiring after the 2002 season. Matthew Pouliot has a more thorough analysis of Irabu’s career here.

We’ll update with more information when it becomes available. For now, however, it appears to be a sad end to a troubled life.

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Fister and Furbush both winners in tonight's box scores.