Eight Guardians takeaways from the first 10 games of the season
Apr 5, 2023; Oakland, California, USA; Cleveland Guardians center fielder Myles Straw (7) celebrates with second baseman Andres Gimenez (0) and left fielder Steven Kwan (38) after Straw and Gimenez were batted in on an RBI double against the Oakland Athletics during the sixth inning at Oakland Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
By Zack Meisel
Apr 10, 2023
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CLEVELAND — Numbers fluctuate wildly this time of year. Trends are flimsy. Overreactions are rampant. Everything you’re about to read could change by the time you reach the end of the article.
But that doesn’t mean we can’t examine some of the early results. Here are 10 takeaways from the Guardians’ 6-4 start.
Andrés Giménez’s second All-Star bid is underway
No matter the circumstance last season, Andrés Giménez produced impressive numbers: left-handed pitcher, right-handed pitcher, home, road, day, night, opponent with a bird mascot, opponent with an undefined species of mascot. Giménez posted an .887 OPS against lefties and an .822 OPS against righties last season.
This year, he’s hitting everything in sight, to the tune of a .350/.422/.550 slash line. He has no business batting seventh. Or sixth.
Here’s how many plate appearances each spot in Cleveland’s order recorded last season:
1. 749
2. 727
3. 716
4. 709
5. 691
6. 673
7. 654
8. 635
9. 605
So, the difference between, say, second and seventh in the lineup is 73 plate appearances, or about an extra trip to the plate every other game.
And here’s where Giménez has batted this season:
5th: once
6th: twice
7th: seven times
Manager Terry Francona bumped him up to the No. 5 spot on Sunday, and that shift is even more imperative because …
Josh Bell is searching
Josh Bell drove in the winning run Sunday but has batted .086/.250/.086 this season. (Ken Blaze / USA Today)
It’s not often you see a guy with a .103 slugging percentage get intentionally walked. That was the case on Saturday when the Mariners preferred to gift Josh Bell first base to set up a left-on-left matchup with Josh Naylor.
That slugging percentage plunged to .086 after an 0-for-6 showing on Sunday, though Bell did drive in the winning run by putting the ball in play in the 12th inning. At this point, he’ll take the little victories.
Bell has looked out of sorts, and after Francona and the hitting coaches talked him up this spring as the perfect protection for José Ramírez in the cleanup spot, he’s already tumbled two spots in the lineup. Granted, it’s been 10 games. Bell won a Silver Slugger Award last season. He might wind up a feared No. 4 hitter and opt out of his contract this winter to sign a more lucrative deal.
But, yeah. It’s been ugly.
He’s still walking a bunch, and while his strikeout rate is higher than normal, it’s not at an alarming, Franmil Reyes-esque level. His main issue has been a tendency to weakly tap pitches into the ground.
• Bell’s launch angle in 2023: minus-5.6 degrees (league average is 12.1 degrees)
• Bell’s career average launch angle: 8.5 degrees
• Bell’s career-high launch angle: 13.1 degrees, in 2019, his banner season
In simple terms: He’s disrupting a lot of worms crawling beneath the infield grass. It’s just … those groundballs haven’t inflicted any damage. It might take time for him to pinpoint what sort of swing and approach make the most sense for him to produce consistently, especially with shift limitations in place. Bell said it can be challenging at times, as a switch hitter, to fix what’s ailing him from each side of the plate.
Bell’s funk would be even more glaring if the guy hitting ninth wasn’t impersonating a Silver Slugger winner, because …
A productive Myles Straw transforms the lineup
What seems unsustainable about Myles Straw’s .344/.488/.406 slash line? When analyzing his monthly output, Straw’s walk rate correlated to his overall production (or lack thereof) at the plate last season, so eight walks in 10 games in 2023 is an encouraging sign for him.
The main thing for Straw, though, is to simply reach base at a sufficient clip to extract optimal value out of his speed. He leads the league with six stolen bases. He stole 21 in 22 attempts last season. With the new rules in place, even if he posts an on-base percentage in line with his career mark of .322 (entering 2023), he could rack up 40 stolen bases. Straw reaching base and running amok in front of Steven Kwan, a safe bet to put the ball in play, is an effective combination.
For much of last season, the club had two black holes at the bottom of the order. With Straw thriving — and, granted, he had a sizzling start in 2022 as well — and Mike Zunino at least offering a power threat, Cleveland’s lineup seems deeper in 2023.
And a deeper lineup, paired with the new rules, could pay dividends because …
The Guardians are still running wild
Giménez stole second base on Friday with such ease that Straw stepped out of the batter’s box as the pitch sailed toward the plate, the catcher didn’t even think about throwing to second and Giménez didn’t even think about sliding into the bag. The Guardians ranked third in the majors in stolen bases and stolen-base success rate last season, and the new rules could help them convert what was already an advantage into an overwhelming strength.
Through 10 games, they have swiped 14 bases in 16 chances — only the Diamondbacks and Orioles have racked up more — and the two miscues were Kwan getting picked off and Bell rumbling into second base a bit tardy.
So, to anyone who was wondering whether the Guardians would employ a similar offensive approach this year to the one that guided them to a division title in 2022, you have your answer. On the flip side, however …
The power outage has continued
The Guardians have hit five home runs, tied with the lowly Nationals and Tigers for last in the majors. Last season, they ranked 29th among the league’s 30 teams, ahead of only Detroit.
Sure, chilly weather has followed the Guardians to Seattle, Oakland and Cleveland. But the Guardians’ opponents, in those same conditions, have hit nine home runs.
There’s time for Cleveland to climb the home run leaderboard. Ramírez and Bell, after all, have yet to hit one over the fence. Neither has Oscar Gonzalez, who has Will Brennan lurking in the right-field shadows. That position battle will be worth monitoring.
José Ramírez hit 29 home runs in 2022. (David Richard / USA Today)
So, too, will the makeup of the rotation. Triston McKenzie was re-evaluated by the team’s medical staff on Sunday and seems optimistic about his recovery timeline. Zach Plesac rebounded from a wretched season debut with a timely seven-inning effort on Sunday. And good luck ignoring the stat lines for Logan Allen and Tanner Bibee every time they take the mound for Triple-A Columbus. Those two could be next in line whenever the Guardians need help.
One starter Cleveland needs to prove dependable? Cal Quantrill, who has submitted a pair of shaky starts. And because of that …
Quantrill is not quite ready to unleash his splitter
Quantrill said it can be tough to grip his new pitch in the cold. (He developed it over the winter while basking in the Arizona sun.) He said he needs to feel comfortable and confident in his delivery to be able to implement the splitter, and he hasn’t reached that point through two rocky outings. His focus has been on attempting to keep the Guardians in the game, fighting to survive long enough to spare the bullpen from being overworked, so he hasn’t had the ideal scenario to throw a series of splitters. He said he tossed one on Saturday, but it wasn’t anything noteworthy. Quantrill has proven supremely reliable the last two seasons; for the health of the rotation, an immediate return to form would go a long way.
The primary reason: Cleveland’s bullpen leads the league in innings pitched. That’s not a title any team wants to claim, even if the group has registered a 3.16 ERA.
Among the bright spots …
Eli Morgan has unleashed his slider
Eli Morgan’s slider usage increased as last season unfolded. Now, he’s throwing it as often as his devastating changeup. The slider gives hitters — especially righties — something else to consider so they can’t simply sit on his fastball or changeup, two offerings that naturally play off each other. His whiff rate on the slider this season is 50 percent. Yes, that’s a small sample. But his whiff rate overall this season, in a slightly larger sample, is 35.3 percent, up from 26.4 percent last year.
Morgan recorded his first career save last week in a 10-inning win in Oakland. And on that note …
Opponents ought to finish off the Guardians in nine innings
Cleveland went 13-6 in extra innings last year; they’re already 4-0 this year.
The formula: a lot of contact and a steady bullpen. Strikeouts are especially valuable in extra innings, with a runner planted at second base to start each frame. Cleveland’s bullpen ranks fourth in the majors in strikeout rate.
The Guardians make more contact than any other team, and they have a deep roster of capable relievers. In the second half of 2022, once the Guardians established relief roles, they boasted the best bullpen ERA in the league and the fourth-best strand rate. Conversely, they ranked fourth in the majors in getting a runner home from third with fewer than two outs.
• Guardians in extra innings in 2022: .397 on-base percentage, .774 OPS
• Opponents in extra innings in 2022: .299 on-base percentage, .649 OPS
As Plesac said Sunday after Cleveland emerged triumphant in a 12-inning heavyweight bout with the Marin
"I've suffered a great many tragedies in my life....most of them never happened". Mark Twain