Lloyd: 4 Guardians extension candidates this spring and what it may take to strike a deal

Oct 15, 2022; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians second baseman Andres Gimenez (0) runs to third base against the New York Yankees in the sixth inning during game three of the NLDS for the 2022 MLB Playoffs at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
By Jason Lloyd
Feb 16, 2023


Here’s the painful reality: It’s getting more difficult for teams to get long-term extensions done with pre-arbitration players. Agents are often advising them not to do it, to wait patiently through the league-minimum years, cash big checks during arbitration, then fund their great-, great-grandchildren’s retirements in free agency.

The path to getting extensions done seems to be to start earlier. Players are signing mammoth deals now before their first big-league at-bats (Eloy Jiménez) or just a few months into their careers (Michael Harris II).

With that in mind, and with this being when long-term extensions typically are finalized, here are four players I’d love to see the Guardians lock up before it’s too late. In some cases, it might be already.
Andrés Giménez

Age: 24

Contract: 6 years, $77 million

Career: 263 games, .774 OPS, 25 HRs, 97 RBIs, 39 SBs, .274 BA, 9.2 WAR

Comp: Jorge Polanco

Polanco at extension: 288 games, .749 OPS, 23 HRs, 147 RBIs, 25 SBs, .272 BA, 2.8 WAR

Giménez is already an All-Star and Gold Glove winner, two things Polanco was not when he signed a five-year, $25 million extension before his age-25 season. It’s going to be costly to keep Giménez if it’s not already too late.

The Guardians knocked the Francisco Lindor trade out of the park. With Amed Rosario entering his final year of arbitration and the Guardians stacked with shortstop prospects, it’s reasonable to believe this will be Rosario’s last year in Cleveland. But Giménez provides an opportunity to complete the contract Lindor wouldn’t take … if it’s not too late.

Giménez produced a 7.4 WAR last year, the fourth second baseman in history and the first in nearly 100 years to record at least a 7 WAR season by age 23. The other three are in the Hall of Fame: Mel Ott, Eddie Collins and Ty Cobb.

How special was Giménez last year? Roberto Alomar didn’t register his first 7 WAR season until 1999, his first year in Cleveland. By then, he was 31 and a 10-time All-Star.

A better financial comp for Giménez might be Pittsburgh’s Ke’Bryan Hayes, who signed a mammoth eight-year, $70 million deal before Opening Day last year. The extension bought out Hayes’ last two pre-arbitration years, all three rounds of arbitration and his first three years of free agency. It was the largest deal ever given to a player with between one and two years of service time.

Arizona second baseman Ketel Marte signed a five-year, $76 million deal before last season, but he was 28 and through his arbitration years already.

A six-year deal for Giménez buys out his first two years of free agency and delivers a franchise cornerstone next to José Ramírez for the rest of the decade.
Steven Kwan

Age: 25

Contract: 6 years, $41 million

Last year: 147 games, .772 OPS, 6 HRs, 52 RBIs, 19 SBs, .298 BA, 5.5 WAR

Comp: ???

There aren’t many players in the game like Kwan, which makes pinpointing a comp and an extension figure incredibly difficult.

Since 2000, only 16 rookies have recorded at least a 5 WAR. The only one who busted (not counting the more recent rookies) was Austin Jackson. The rest of the list: Troy Tulowitzki, Mike Trout, Ichiro Suzuki, Corey Seager, Adley Rutschman, Julio Rodríguez, Albert Pujols, Aaron Judge, Jason Heyward, Michael Harris II, Bryce Harper, Kris Bryant, Pete Alonso and José Abreu.

Translation: The odds are on the Guardians’ side if they want to get something done with Kwan sooner than later.

The closest comp on that list is Kwan’s idol: Ichiro. They are also the only two on the list to win Gold Gloves as rookies. The problem is Ichiro played 20 years ago and was a veteran when he arrived, so his contract terms are irrelevant.

Outfielder Michael Harris II, 21, signed an eight-year, $72 million deal with Atlanta less than three months after his debut last season ($10 million of it is a buyout on two additional option years). Harris was the Braves’ top prospect entering the season, hit 19 home runs while slashing .297/.339/.514 and won the National League Rookie of the Year Award. His salary over the first six years of the deal totals $45 million: $5 million, $5 million, $8 million, $8 million, $9 million and $10 million.

Kwan slashed .298/.373/.400 last year while finishing third in Rookie of the Year voting. Six years and $41 million is quite a raise for someone who earned $700,000 last year and made only $185,000 on a signing bonus as a fifth-round pick. It also allows the Guardians to buy out all of his arbitration years and his first year of free agency.
Since 2000, only 16 rookies have had a WAR score of at least 5. The odds are on the Guardians’ side if they want to get a deal done soon with Steven Kwan. (Ken Blaze / USA Today)
Oscar González

Age: 25

Contract: 7 years, $24 million

Career: 91 games, .789 OPS, 11 HRs, 43 RBIs, .296 BA, 2.1 WAR

Comp: Andre Ethier

Ethier’s age-24 season: 126 games, .842 OPS, 11 HRs, 55 RBIs, .308 BA, 2.4 WAR

Is this premature? Perhaps. Maybe the Guardians want to see a full season out of González before committing to him, but teams are learning the window for getting these types of extensions done is closing earlier and earlier. Sometimes teams might have to commit before they’re fully comfortable.

If González gets to all the power this year that the team believes is in his swing, his value will soar as early as next winter.

I struggled to find good comps for González since he essentially played only half a season at age 24. Ethier was the closest since he was also an age-24 rookie, but he waited until after his three arbitration years to sign a monster deal with the Dodgers.

So how about Starling Marte? González hasn’t exhibited Marte’s speed, but the other numbers (135 games, .784 OPS, 12 HRs, 35 RBIs, .280 average for Marte’s age-24 season) are similar. Marte signed a six-year, $31 million deal in 2014 that bought out his three arbitration years and his first year of free agency. Marte signed his deal a year later than when González would be signing, and Marte had a WAR (5.1) more than double what González produced last year. Again, no exact comps here. González is still considered a rookie, so seven years buys out all of his arbitration years and first year of free agency.

Tampa Bay’s Randy Arozarena will make $4 million this year as a Super Two, and Houston’s Kyle Tucker will make $5 million in his first year of arbitration. Prices only go up from there. Teoscar Hernández will make at least $14 million from the Mariners in his final year of arbitration. A deal with González now gives Cleveland cost certainty and with escalating prices could pay for itself by what would be his second year of arbitration.
Triston McKenzie

Age: 25

Contract: 5 years, $47 million

Career: 18-21, 3.68 ERA, 110 ERA+, 4.01 FIP, 368 Ks, 5.6 WAR

Comp: Germán Márquez

Márquez before extension: 26-19, 4.11 ERA, 118 ERA+, 3.88 FIP, 392 Ks, 7.7 WAR

Pitchers obviously carry more risk, and McKenzie has already suffered one significant shoulder injury. With this being his final year before arbitration, however, if the Guardians want to get something done long-term, this might be their last chance.

The best comp for a recent starter who signed with a year left before arbitration is Colorado’s Márquez, who agreed to a five-year, $43 million deal in 2019 that bought out all of his arbitration years and his first year of free agency. Márquez at the same point in his career was a year younger with better metrics. But he also signed his deal three years ago. Something in that same range seems reasonable here, too.

Projections like these are difficult and can vary widely. How desperate is a player for long-term security? How eager is a team to get something done? Do the Guardians look at Brayan Rocchio, Gabriel Arias, Tyler Freeman and a slew of middle-infield prospects behind them and decide they can trade Giménez in two to three years? Or do they believe Giménez is The One and stretch their limits of comfortability to get something done?

Does the framework for an eventual new majority owner impact any or all of these negotiations? Is David Blitzer more comfortable paying the sixth and seventh year in some of these deals? Are we certain he’ll be leading the franchise by then? We just don’t have all the answers.

Here’s what we know: The roster is young, the farm system is incredibly deep and the next wave of pitching prospects is ready to crash onto the shores of Lake Erie. My guess, and this is strictly a guess, is that Kwan and González (if the team is even interested at this point) are probably the most likely to sign extensions this spring. Regardless, life for Cleveland baseball is pretty good right now. A few extensions could make it even better for all involved.

Inking GIminez and Kwan for long term would be exciting.

Who wrote this article? An agent?

Pipe dreams.

None of these guys are signing long term deals. Big money will not come from the Gs and they know it.

If I recall correctly last spring besides Jose they signed Clase and Straw. They now have a new minority investor [is that finalized?] So why not?

They may regret Straw's contract length but he's it's cheap enough to eat a few bucks if they dump him.

I'm sure Clase is regretting a little because now he knows he's worth a lot more in today's market.

seagull - they would never have to eat Straw's contract.

Even if he becomes their 4th extra outfielder he has value. Defensive replacement, perhaps play vs. lefties, and of course baserunner.

Don't forget the 10th inning "ghostrunner at 2B" is now permanent. Having a speed guy on the roster just added value.

Your summary of the 2 deals last spring confirms the gambles both sides make in longterm deals:

Maybe Cleveland overpaid longterm for Straw
Maybe Clase took too little for his longterm deal.
Win a few, lose a few.

You can't have an outfielder with no power.

I agree Straw would be a great 4th outfielder used for defense and baserunning replacements.

He's only making $3M this season so the Gs can keep him around but he gets more expensive in the next 3 years.

I think they need more pop than Straw can give them.

Houston saw it and traded him.

We know Tito loves him, but he should be included in any trade talks .

Give Brennen an opportunity or maybe Reynolds is still available.

Is Reynolds still available? That's surprising. I forget is he a FA or still under contract to the Pirates who are holding out for a big package?

Civ

I meant if the Pirates will trade him for the right offer.

surprised they haven't

Guardians Beat
By Mandy Bell


February 18, 2023
Guardians

Welcome to another installment of the Guardians Newsletter. I’m Mandy Bell and I’m entering my fifth season covering Cleveland. Let’s get into the good stuff:

The Guardians haven’t started team workouts just yet and the last few position players are still trickling in to Goodyear, Ariz., but that doesn’t mean we can’t make observations already.

Hitters have taken batting practice all week and pitchers have been throwing bullpens. A handful of hurlers (especially Minor Leaguers) have already gotten themselves ready enough to start throwing live batting-practice sessions against their teammates.

The first full-squad workout will be on Tuesday, which is when we’ll be able to start learning a lot more about this club. In the meantime, let’s talk about the three observations I’ve made in the early days of camp:

1. Gonzalez hasn’t lost his power
Gonzalez

Someone get the theme song from “Spongebob Squarepants” playing.

Guardians hitters are far from being in midseason form. These early days of camp are used to get everyone back in the regular routine of hopping in the cage each day. The goal isn’t to see results, necessarily, but to make sure each player’s swing mechanics are fine-tuned. Still, even when he’s not swinging as hard as we’ve seen him in-season, Oscar Gonzalez has frequently ventured beyond the outfield wall on Field 1 at Cleveland’s Spring Training complex.

Gonzalez hit a ball wrong earlier this week -- it seemed as though it got in on his hands. Anyone within a 50- to 60-foot radius could hear him let out a sigh of frustration about not squaring it up perfectly. Yet the ball still traveled over the fence.

A pitch or two later, he let out an even louder grunt of dissatisfaction when he couldn't square up another pitch. This one hit off the top of the outfield wall.

Even when Gonzalez isn’t at his best, his power is unbelievably apparent. His swing is effortless and the ball explodes off his bat. When he was frustrated with his “poor” performance, his teammates were giving him a hard time, joking that he only hit it into a house across the street that time.

Gonzalez didn’t tap into the power he displayed in the Minors when he was up in the big leagues last year. But don’t worry, it seems like it's still there.

2. Quantrill is ready to go
Cal Quantrill

Cal Quantrill knew he was going to participate in the World Baseball Classic this year, pitching for Canada, so he had to get himself ready a little bit earlier in the offseason than he typically would. Though he was expected to be ahead of the other starters in terms of throwing progression, Quantrill seems lightyears ahead of where he was projected to be.

Quantrill threw his first live batting practice on Friday afternoon against Amed Rosario, Josh Naylor and Josh Bell. He threw 15 pitches, and aside from a ground ball up the middle from Rosario, no one came close to getting a base hit.

The starter walked off the field and Guardians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti asked him how he felt.

“Good," Quantrill responded. “I’m going to see if I can throw another 15.”

A few minutes later, he was back on the mound.

It’s easy for teams to be hesitant about allowing their players to participate in the World Baseball Classic, since it’s during Spring Training and just before a long 162-game season. But the shape Quantrill entered camp in should allow the Guardians to breathe a little bit easier, having more confidence that he should be able to get through the next few weeks without as big of a risk for injury because of how he prepared himself.

3. A healthy Tito
Terry Francona

In 2020, Terry Francona was clearly going through some challenges, missing a handful of spring games and seeming more short and irritable during Spring Training -- the time of year that’s usually his favorite (next to the postseason). After the pandemic delayed the start of the season, Francona returned for just a few short days before having a rough medical stretch that landed him in the ICU. He attempted to return the next season and had to leave at the end of July again due to health problems.

It was difficult to know whether Francona -- or at least his health -- was cut out for this job for the foreseeable future. Now, he seems to have done a complete 180.

Francona is filling the stereotypical “best shape of his life” role in Spring Training this year. He isn’t coming off of any surgeries, he doesn’t have any crutches or walking boots and he dedicated the winter to his physique, looking noticeably slimmer.

There’s no reason to believe Francona doesn’t have a few more years of managing left in him.
 
TRIVIA

Who hit the first home run in franchise history?

A.) Bob Wood
B.) Erve Beck
C.) Pete Dowling
D.) Candy LaChance
 
IN THE NEWS
Palacios

• Cleveland has a couple of players heading to the World Baseball Classic. Read what it means for Richie Palacios to play for the Netherlands and for Bo Naylor to join Canada.

• Newly acquired catcher Mike Zunino is on pace to play in Guardians’ spring opener.

• There are new rules in 2023 and our friend Anthony Castrovince took an in-depth look at how each of them will work.
 
QUOTABLE
Francona

Francona often raves about the Brighton Hot Dog Shoppe from his hometown in Pennsylvania. When he was shown a picture of one of their chili dogs on Friday, he gave one of his typical Tito-esque descriptions:

“OK, that’s heaven. That’s what that is. That’s heaven. That proves there is a God. You can talk religion all you want. That proves there is a God. That’s a chili dog with everything. That’s what they call it. I grew up on that.”

Jose Ramirez Is Projected To Lead The Guardians In This Stat

BY TOMMY WILD SPORTS ILLUSTRATED CLEVELAND GUARDIANS NEWS, ANALYSIS AND MORE

FEBRUARY 18, 2023 9:29 AM

MLB.com predicts Jose Ramirez to lead the Cleveland Guardians in home runs in 2023. One of the biggest questions on everyone's mind heading into Spring Training is, "who is going to be the biggest power hitter in the Guardians' lineup?" Cleveland went out and signed Silver Slugger winner Josh Bell to a two-year deal, Josh Naylor always has the potential to launch a number of home runs, Oscar Gonzalez may focus on his power this season, Andres Gimenez displayed some tremendous potential and newly signed Mike Zunino also has a history of hitting home runs.

We also can never count out Jose Ramirez because he can do anything on a baseball diamond. These were the team's home run leaders last year:

Jose Ramirez - 29
Josh Naylor - 20
Josh Bell - 17 (Between the Nationals and Padres)
Andres Gimenez - 17
Oscar Gonzalez - 11

After leading the Guardians in home runs in 2022, MLB.com also projects Ramirez to lead the team again in 2023.

This time they forecast him to hit 30, just above last year. The Guardians hit the second least home runs as a team in 2022 which is stat fans have heard time and time again. But this team could take a big step in this department with a healthy Jose in the lineup, the progression of younger players, and veteran power hitters such as Bell and Zunino in the lineup.

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Zunino on pace to play in Guardians' Spring opener

Cleveland eyeing several potential backup candidates for the veteran backstop

Mandy Bell

February 17th, 2023

GOODYEAR, Ariz. -- If there was any concern that Mike Zunino was going to be behind physically entering Spring Training, he’s already proven in the first week that he’s well on the road to recovery.

Zunino missed most of last season due to thoracic outlet syndrome in his left (non-throwing) arm. He underwent surgery for it in July and was signed by the Guardians over the offseason with the expectation that he’ll be without restrictions by the time camp began. Now, he’s on pace to start for the Guardians in their first Cactus League game on Feb. 25 against the Reds at Goodyear Ballpark.

“[He] won’t [play in] big chunks right away,” Guardians manager Terry Francona said. “We don’t do that with anybody. But I think he’s doing pretty well. So, I mean, if he’s playing in the first game, that speaks volumes.”

Zunino being healthy is the biggest piece of Cleveland's catching puzzle. The ideal scenario for the Guardians would be having Zunino take the bulk of the innings and have a non-roster backstop or Bryan Lavastida handle the backup role at the beginning of the season. It seems the preference is to have Bo Naylor begin the year in Triple-A, play consistently and get more reps under his belt before he’s inevitably backing up Zunino (and potentially getting more playing time by the end of the season).

If Zunino wasn’t in the clear to be ready health-wise on Opening Day, the Guardians may not have had another option but to throw Naylor into the fire out of the gate, which isn’t how the club wants him to transition to the big leagues. Now, he can represent Canada in the World Baseball Classic and focus on improving in Triple-A before his next call to the Majors comes.

“He’s 22 years old,” Francona said. “We make a promise to our guys that we’ll be honest and we’ll be conscientious in where we feel they are and what the plan is for him, but don’t waste being young worrying about where you’re going to be. Just enjoy seeing how good you can get.

“We told him it’s not always on your timetable. We own up to that. But if you knock the door down, that sort of makes the timetable. But I think he’s got a really good head situated really well. He’s got a pretty good outlook.”

If the Opening Day roster doesn’t include Naylor, who will be the backup catcher? Let’s take a look at the options as workouts begin ramping up at camp:

Bryan Lavastida

Lavastida would be the easiest move considering he’s the only other backstop already on the 40-man roster, which is currently at its max. But would Cleveland be ready to get him back in the mix after a difficult 2022 season? Previously, he had been solid offensively, hitting .289 with an .836 OPS across three Minor League levels in ’21. Aside from the six games in the big leagues last year, he spent the season split between Double-A Akron and Triple-A Columbus, hitting a combined .209 with a .633 OPS while battling some injuries.

Meibrys Viloria

Viloria ranked in the 79th percentile in pop time in 2022 and his framing improved from past seasons, according to Statcast. In four years in the big leagues, he’s hit .201 with a .553 OPS in 93 games. Viloria is participating in the World Baseball Classic for Colombia, which means he’ll miss a chunk of Spring Training with Cleveland -- valuable time for the club to make a decision.

Cam Gallagher

Steamer predicts Gallagher and Viloria to have similar numbers in 2023, with Gallagher at a .216 average and 72 wRC+. His pop time might not be as quick as Viloria, but he’s put together decent defensive seasons in the past, according to his metrics.

David Fry

The most intriguing part about Fry is his versatility. He can play the outfield or either corner infield spot when he’s not behind the plate. He’s even seen innings in the middle infield, as well. If he has an impressive spring, maybe Cleveland will take a chance on him, despite his having no Major League experience.

Zack Collins

During Collins' time in the Minors, MLB Pipeline praised him more for power than his defense. But in a handful of appearances in the Majors over the last four years, he’s combined to hit just .185 with a .622 OPS. But like Gallagher or Viloria, Collins could be just enough to bridge the gap to Naylor before likely getting designated for assignment.

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How many Cleveland Guardians possess 20-HR power for 2023? Hey, Hoynsie

Updated: Feb. 18, 2023, 10:55 a.m.

By Paul Hoynes

CLEVELAND, Ohio --

Do you have a question that you’d like to have answered in Hey, Hoynsie? Submit it here. You can also subscribe to Subtext here or text Hoynsie at 216-208-4346 for a two-week free trial.

Hey, Hoynsie: How many Guardians do you think have the ability to hit 20 or more home runs this season? -- Bill, Peoria, Arizona.

Hey, Bill: Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor were the only Guardians to hit 20 or more last year. Newcomers Mike Zunino and Josh Bell have had four and three seasons, respectively, of 20 or more homers. Andres Gimenez came close last year with 17 and no one should sleep on Oscar Gonzalez who combined to hit 20 between Cleveland and Class AAA Columbus last year (11 in Cleveland, nine at Triple-A).

They have some prospects with pop who are getting closer to the big leagues. Outfielder George Valera hit 24 homers last season between Class AA Akron and Columbus. Catcher Bo Naylor hit 21 homers at AA and Triple-A. Jhonkensy Noel hit 32 homers last season, while playing for Class A Lake County, AA and Triple-A. Brayan Rocchio hit 18 homers at Akron and Columbus. Catcher David Fry, who is in big league camp as a spring training invite, hit 17 homers last year at Columbus.

Hey, Hoynsie: The No. 1 reason given for baseball’s lack of popularity compared to other sports is the game is too slow. I feel the ghost runner rule is the best rule in baseball. The 10th inning has become a must watch. -- Stanley J. Olejarski.

Hey, Stanley: You are not alone because MLB owners recently voted to make the ghost runner in extra innings a permanent rule after it was introduced during the COVID-19 season of 2020. It definitely brings a sense of urgency to the game.

Hey Hoynsie: If the Diamond Sports Group, parent company for Bally Sports, goes belly up and MLB acquires the broadcast rights to the Guardians (among others) to start the season, will it still blackout local markets or will folks in central/northern Ohio have the ability to watch the games through MLB.TV? -- Phil, Columbus.

Hey, Phil: No one can give you an answer at the moment. But if the teams and MLB do acquire to TV rights from DSG, they could untangle the complicated blackout rules that keep fans from watching their local teams. I’m guessing that would be an involved process.

Hey, Hoynsie: Given that Diamond Sports Group, parent company of Bally Sports, is flirting with bankruptcy, what are some of the options for Guardians fans to watch the games? -- Jim Mullen, Bay Village.

Hey, Jim: If DSG cannot honor the regionals sports network contracts it holds with the Guardians and 13 other big league teams, MLB is prepared to take over the broadcasts. There could be some hiccups, but MLB is confident it can fill the void. DSG and Bally Sports could also convince teams to take a share of the restructured company following their expected bankruptcy.

Hey, Hoynsie: After watching the Kansas City Chief fans adopt the Tomahawk Chop from the Atlanta Braves at the Super Bowl, what power do these teams have that the team formerly known as the Cleveland Indians does not? -- Greg Benedetto, Cottonwood, Arizona.

Hey, Greg: Native Americans protested the Chiefs name and celebration/rally gesture before Super Bowl LVII in Glendale, Arizona. The one thing the Chiefs and Braves have done is establish relationships with Native American groups in their area. It is one of the reasons they have avoided the scrutiny and criticism the Cleveland faced.

Owner Paul Dolan, when the Indians changed their name, said there was no Native American group in Northeastern Ohio to create that kind of partnership with. He also said that the name of a professional sports team is supposed to bring a city together, not divide it. I grew up with the Indians name, saw nothing wrong with it, but Dolan’s words made sense to me.

Hey, Hoynsie: I’m sure with Josh Naylor dropping some weight his speed will increase, but wouldn’t he still be a defensive liability in right field? Has he ever played right? -- John Kyle, Westfield Center.

Hey, John: Naylor will probably spend most of his time at first base or DH, but he is no stranger to right field. He’s appeared in 91 games in right field, including 87 starts, in the big leagues. Naylor’s ability to play right gives manager Terry Francona flexibility with his lineup.

Hey Hoynsie: What is Cleveland’s fall back position should Steven Kwan and/or Oscar Gonzalez have sophomore slumps? Are they looking at experienced outfielder as a backup? -- Dave Bowers, Avon.

Hey, Dave: If Kwan and/or Gonzalez have a sophomore slump, the Guards could be in trouble. But you know Terry Francona will give them plenty of opportunities to find themselves.

As for adding a veteran outfielder, I think the Guardians would want to take a look at Will Brennan or George Valera before they do that.

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