vWhite Sox-Guardians preview: AL Central contenders meet for (another) big series
Jul 23, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Cleveland Guardians shortstop Amed Rosario (1) scores as Chicago White Sox catcher Seby Zavala (44) makes a late tag during the fifth inning in game one of a doubleheader at Guaranteed Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
By James Fegan and Zack Meisel
2h ago
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It’s (one of) the biggest series of the year!
Sure, it’s a three-team race with the Minnesota Twins, but this weekend’s Guardians-White Sox tilt in Cleveland is a symbolically perfect matchup between clubs that have had their fans saying “My god, is this really happening?!” all season, albeit for different reasons.
Maybe this is off the mark, but my sense is that both clubs, fanbases and beats have been at least implicitly waiting for things to trend back toward what they expected for more than four months. After their biggest shellacking of the season Thursday, the White Sox can’t make any significant waves in the standings without a sweep, but as the preseason favorites, anytime they play well looks like a potential return to order. The Guardians have seemed reluctant to significantly alter their plans from a front office perspective, but have been playing a credible brand of baseball too long for a collapse back under .500 to seem likely.
It’s a consistent, steady force against a possibly movable object.
So uh, what’s new with you?
James Fegan: The White Sox will bring a new shortstop with them to Cleveland. But since this is not 2012, the late-season addition of Elvis Andrus is more of a triage measure, with Tim Anderson and Leury García both missing from their shortstop depth chart. The White Sox are hopeful Luis Robert’s bruised left wrist will allow them to only be missing one core piece of their lineup for the weekend — unless you count Yasmani Grandal and Yoán Moncada being shells of their previous production all season.
This clubhouse is coming off a 5-2 homestand that began with one of those always treasured team meetings, which is either a reactive measure to…the totality of the 2022 season, or something Tony La Russa has always done with his teams (depending on who you ask about it).
Zack Meisel: Did you catch the Guardians’ — hmm, wild is far too tame of a description, bonkers is underselling it a bit — batshit crazy comeback against the Tigers on Wednesday night? It’s been the talk of the Cleveland sports scene the last couple days.
It unfolded precisely how they drew it up: Start the inning with three consecutive strikeouts, and then score six runs after the backup catcher reaches first on the third strikeout. They’ve had a knack this season for those late-inning “they just did what?” moments, as the White Sox know well.
Nice timing on the Andrus addition, by the way. He owns a .378/.446/.570 slash line in 45 career games at Progressive Field. At only one other ballpark in which he’s appeared in more than two games does he have an OPS greater than .810. He must get extra pillows at the downtown Cleveland Ritz-Carlton.
We snark a lot here, but why is this team going to actually win the division?
JF: Maybe this is like when a grade school student has detention and has to write something repeatedly until they believe it, but there really is oodles of talent here. A rotation that was dominant in the first half of last season has seen Dylan Cease take a step forward (or three) and Michael Kopech is having a successful first year as a starter. Plus whatever the hell Johnny Cueto is doing is working.
Despite the bizarre lack of power, José Abreu is a middle-of-the-order force for the ninth straight year, Andrew Vaughn has become the good at-bat machine that was foretold, and you forget when he’s injured that Eloy Jiménez is kind of a hitting savant. And while it had better be, since they keep spending so much money on it, the Sox bullpen has around six reliable high-leverage options right now.
Dammit, I’m sucking myself in again.
ZM: The Guardians are, in part, in this position because the rest of the AL Central has failed to capitalize on their brief downturn. The Royals and Tigers are proving that stripping it all down and building it back up in a deliberate and painful manner doesn’t always pan out. The Twins seem to vacillate each year between modest contenders and modest re-toolers. And then there’s [waves hands wildly at the White Sox] this.
If Cleveland is to actually hold on and win this thing in a year in which they had no business winning it, it’s because their rotation closes out the season the way past Cleveland rotations have. The blossoming of Andrés Giménez, Josh Naylor and Steven Kwan has keyed the team’s run to this point. But now they need Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie to pitch like front-line starters for another nine starts and for Cal Quantrill, Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac to prove dependable. The lineup has established its identity as a contact-driven, power-lacking pest to opposing pitchers. The rotation feels like it has more to prove (and achieve).
Why might things, dare we say, fall apart down the stretch?
JF: Even in sweeping the Tigers or stealing a couple of cathartic late-inning victories from the Astros, the White Sox offense still boasts the same fatal flaws. They do not control the strike zone, they put pitchers’ pitches in play, and neither draw walks nor coax meatballs from opposing hurlers that they can drive for power. Their opposite-field-heavy approach also does not clear the fence with the 2022 baseball. With a slow roster full of first-base types — which very actively hampers them defensively against a team that, say, makes a lot of contact and possesses a lot of team speed? — they are perpetually trying to hit four singles in an inning to score.
They have the pitching to make this work often enough, and will throw a lot of it against Cleveland this weekend. But with Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn, at best, a mixed bag due to the health issues they have faced this season, rolling a large boulder up a hill for three hours is a hard way to go on a prolonged run. As such, the Sox’s progression out of an early-season hole filled with plenty of injuries has been incremental.
ZM: Playing the youth card seems like a cop-out. It’s been relayed ad nauseam: The Guardians have the youngest roster in the lea— WE KNOW. It’s even younger than the average Triple-A ros— ENOUGH. GET SOME NEW MATERIAL.
Look, they didn’t exactly plan to stand atop the AL Central in mid-August. Otherwise, their Opening Day lineup probably wouldn’t have included Bobby Bradley and Yu Chang, and we probably wouldn’t have seen so much of Oscar Mercado and Kirk McCarty. As you mentioned in the intro, the club entered this season prioritizing development. They haven’t deviated from that plan (see: trade deadline). That’s not to say they don’t want to win or that they won’t make decisions down the stretch geared toward outlasting the Twins and White Sox.
But, well, the roster is really young. [ducks]
So how is this weekend going to go?
JF: At this point, a three-game set with Cueto and Cease is a reason for the White Sox to feel good, and Lynn is coming off a start that boosts some belief that he’s rounding the corner with his surgically repaired knee (yes, it was against the Tigers). But this Guardians team has been a matchup nightmare for them for three years running now, and is one of the last clubs that the White Sox want to be tasked with taking crucial series from in order to seal their postseason fate.
The ideal Sox game is striking out 12 batters, with nothing but weak popups and routine grounders spliced in between. But the Guardians do nothing but test their loping outfielders with hustle doubles, exposing their light control of the running game, and legging out infield singles on would-be wipeout pitches that they manage to spoil for slow choppers. Andrus should be just a veteran stopgap, but he has an opportunity to look like the team MVP by Sunday if he plays his cards right.
Oh, and while I just looked it up today and found that 16 of Josh Naylor’s 57 RBI this season are against the Sox, I’m certainly not surprised by this information.
ZM: Like Chicago, Cleveland has its top two starters lined up for this weekend in Bieber and McKenzie. Like Chicago, Cleveland’s injured/struggling option, Civale, will pitch this weekend on the heels of his best outing of the year, also against the Tigers.
Cease can certainly give them fits, but the Guardians might be the perfect foil for the White Sox. They don’t strike out. They’re constantly putting the ball in play. (I did not look this up, but I assume every single one of Tim Anderson’s errors this season have come against Cleveland.) They run the bases as if their flight is about to finish boarding in a different terminal at O’Hare and they just made a purchase at Nuts On Clark.
Regardless of this weekend’s results, this groundhog predicts the three-team potato sack race will persist for another six weeks.
JF: My prediction is that this piece reminds me to get some Nuts On Clark when I’m at the airport.
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