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MLB free agency, trades and offseason outlook: Jim Bowden answers 20 questions on Red Sox, Angels, Braves, more
By Jim Bowden Nov 12, 2021 139
As the MLB offseason plays out, I’ll regularly do reader mailbags to answer your questions and share what I’m hearing around the league. Let’s get right to this edition, which hits on 20 teams. Also, if you missed them, check out my look at key needs for each team and my ranking of the top 25 free agents (with contract predictions and best team fits).
(Note: Questions have been edited for length and clarity.)
What is the ideal offseason for the Angels? — Justin B.
Signing three free-agent starters: Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman. A mere $400 million and a five-year commitment for all three would get it done. OK, OK, I know — not realistic financially. What about Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke, all on short-term deals? OK, OK, I know — too much health risk. So how about a combination of those plans? You get my point: Acquire three top starters, and bring back Raisel Iglesias or sign Kenley Jansen, too.
While the Red Sox have plenty of flexibility and could almost maintain the status quo in the infield and the outfield, their defensive configuration left much to be desired in 2021. It seems far more likely that a shakeup is coming, at least at a couple of positions. Where could the Sox realistically get the most impact in a shakeup? — Tim F.
There’s a strong possibility the Red Sox make a quiet play for either Carlos Correa or Marcus Semien. If they land Correa, I think they’ll ask Xander Bogaerts to move to second base. If they sign Semien, he would play second base. I think they’ll also re-sign Eduardo Rodríguez or pivot to another similar starter, such as Steven Matz. I expect they’ll be aggressive in improving the bullpen. And if they can’t get Kyle Schwarber back, which they are trying to do, they might consider another left-handed hitter, such as Eddie Rosario.
What kind of demand will there be for the Braves’ three free-agent outfielders, Rosario, Jorge Soler and Joc Pederson? Will any of them return to Atlanta? — Josh G.
I think it depends on the universal designated hitter. If it’s adopted, as expected, demand for all three will increase. Soler will garner the most interest because of the hitting adjustments he made after being acquired from the Royals, including not chasing as much out of the strike zone. Rosario can really hit with power, but his low on-base percentage and defensive deficiencies will stand in the way to a degree. Pederson is a role or platoon player, and several small-market teams will be interested.
How many “big names” do the Rangers end up signing? — Jason P.
I think they have a chance to land two big free agents: Trevor Story to play shortstop and either Nick Castellanos or Michael Conforto to play right field would be my initial guesses. All three are young enough — they’re 28, 29 and 28, respectively — to be part of the Rangers’ long-term plans.
Will the Yankees go after a starter (this offseason)? If so, whom are they most likely to pursue: Jon Gray, Justin Verlander, Carlos Rodón? — Will M.
The Yankees are prioritizing one of the elite free-agent shortstops — either Corey Seager or Correa, with Semien as their third choice. I think they’ll also try to improve at catcher and in center field, with Starling Marte a real candidate for the latter. But to answer your question, yes, I think the Yankees will try to land a starter and it won’t surprise me if Verlander is the gamble they like the best among the free-agent starting pitchers returning from injuries.
What’s the best approach for the Brewers with Josh Hader, given the circumstances?
The Brewers should keep Hader unless they are absolutely overwhelmed by a trade offer. Armed with three No. 1 starters and a lethal bullpen, led by Hader, the Brewers have a legitimate chance of contending for the World Series next year. They need to spend the offseason trying to acquire as many bats as possible to improve the offense. They also should extend the contract of president of baseball operations David Stearns to stop the Mets’ indirect tampering.
Since you didn’t list the Twins as potential fits for any of the top free agents, what do you think they will do this offseason? — Sean M.
Byron Buxton: signed, traded or held? What happens? — S.H
I think the Twins will trade for a veteran starter, add bullpen depth and be active in the secondary shortstop market. In terms of the oft-injured Buxton, he just hasn’t played enough for Minnesota to give him the long-term contract he wants. Therefore, I would trade him if I could get the right return. If not, I would let him play out next season, or at least until the trade deadline and re-evaluate then, assuming he can stay healthy.
Which would be more valuable for the Cardinals — (adding) a starting pitcher or a shortstop? Based on that answer, whom should they pursue? In an ideal world for me, the Cards sign Scherzer and Seager, neither of which I expect to happen. — Ross M.
Starting pitching is their biggest need so if I were St. Louis I would focus on that first, but I also think Seager, with his left-handed bat and record of success in the postseason, is a perfect fit with the Cardinals. Putting Seager between Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado in the middle of their lineup would be a game-changer. My “ideal world” for the Cardinals is the same as yours: Scherzer and Seager. However, I’m also good with Stroman, Gausman or Ray and Semien.
What is a realistic outfield move the Guardians could make to improve their corner outfield spots, given their salary constraints dictated by ownership? Conforto, or is his asking price out of range? — Benjamin F.
I think the Guardians should sign Conforto, Castellanos or Kris Bryant, but I get the impression they are looking for cheaper options via trade rather than free agency. If they trade José Ramírez — and they are listening to inquiries about the three-time All-Star — don’t be surprised if multiple outfielders are part of the package coming back to Cleveland.
What would it cost the Dodgers to get Matt Olson? — John G.
Olson is an interesting trade target for the Dodgers. If I’m the A’s, I want Tony Gonsolin, Gavin Lux and Phil Bickford in return.
Any chance the White Sox bring Semien back to the South Side? — John F.
They have the resources to do it and the need at second base. It makes too much sense. So yes, of course there is a chance, particularly because owner Jerry Reinsdorf knows how close the White Sox are to getting back to the World Series.
What controllable, front-line starters could be traded this offseason? — Parker B.
Luis Castillo, Chris Bassitt, Frankie Montas, Tyler Glasnow and Sonny Gray.
Besides Gausman, do you see the Giants going after a top starting pitcher via free agency or trade? I would love to see them acquire Sandy Alcántara or Pablos López from Miami. — Cameron B.
The Giants have the resources — both financially and within their farm system — to chase the best starting pitchers available via free agency and trades, and they need four starters to put behind Logan Webb. Anything is possible, but the Marlins are not trading Alcántara.
What are the chances of Chris Taylor being signed by the Phillies? What will it take for a team to land him or the Dodgers to re-sign him? — Edward R.
I think Taylor will be flooded with offers, from the Mariners to the Dodgers to the Rangers to the Phillies. He’s going to do extremely well. I do like his fit with the Phillies as an everyday left fielder. As far as the contract, I predicted a four-year, $64 million deal in my top 25 free agents article.
Do you see the Mariners signing more than one big-ticket free agent or making a blockbuster trade that taps into their farm system? — Brett J.
President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto, aka Trader Jerry, is ready to wheel-and-deal at a significant level. When it’s all said and done, he will have acquired a middle-of-the-order infield bat, a starting pitcher and more lineup depth.
If you were (Reds general manager Nick Krall) and were told to “align payroll with resources” by ownership, what’s your next move after parting with Tucker Barnhart and Wade Miley? — Frank R.
I would have to listen to offers on every Reds player, including Gray and Castillo. Although I wouldn’t want to trade either of them, they could bring back the best packages to retool with a lower team payroll. I would also gauge trade interest in Mike Moustakas, Eugenio Suárez and Shogo Akiyama to see what they could yield.
When will the Juan Soto extension process start? What are the chances the Nationals retain him? — Elias T.
The Nationals need to do their best to lock him up, but Soto is going to demand the first half-a-billion-dollar contract. I’ve heard that when he’s amassed six years of service time, he’s more likely to end up with the Dodgers or Yankees. I would enjoy this time with Soto in a Nationals uniform, because I’m afraid there will come a day when they trade him, as they did with Trea Turner this past season.
With Bill Schmidt’s promotion to GM, do you see the Rockies going in a different direction than the previous regime or maintaining the status quo? Could they move a player like Germán Márquez and lean more toward a rebuild, or go in the other direction and look to add? — Cullen F.
I am hearing the Rockies plan to pursue an outfield bat and a starting pitcher (if they can’t resign Gray) while continuing to improve their bullpen. But don’t expect massive changes this offseason besides those three areas. The Rockies will continue to build mostly through player development and scouting.
If the new collective bargaining agreement creates a $100 million salary floor, which free agents do the Marlins spend their money on? — Josh H.
First of all, if the new CBA creates a $100 million salary floor, I think it would go into effect over a two- or three-year period to give teams time to adjust. However, to answer your question, the Marlins are focused on improving their offense first and foremost, with the outfield their top priority. So, players such as Conforto, Castellanos, Schwarber, Avisaíl García, Rosario, Soler and maybe even a reunion with Marte would make sense for them.
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