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Indians trade deadline banter: Who (and what) should Cleveland target next month?
By Zack Meisel and Jason Lloyd 1h ago 5
CLEVELAND — When the Indians sat at 8-11 — a new-look, inexperienced team stumbling out of the gate — had I told you they would proceed to lose Franmil Reyes, Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale in the weeks to follow, would you have guessed that they would be in position to add talent at the trade deadline?
The path toward late-summer contention isn’t the most inviting, given the team’s injured list and upcoming schedule, but the Indians have weathered the storm to this point. There are a number of strategies they could employ at the trade deadline next month. Will they add a starting pitcher to aid the tattered rotation? Will they add a bat or two to the lineup? Will they pursue any rentals or focus strictly on controllable players?
The deadline is July 30. Jason, let’s pretend president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and general manager Mike Chernoff are out sick and left us in charge. (God help us all.) What move sits atop your priority list for the Indians?
Lloyd: The ultimate answer, as we talk through this, might actually be to do nothing. At least nothing major. This feels so much more complicated than most years. Before settling on what this team needs, don’t we first have to gauge how good the Indians really are and what their ceiling can be? And how much flexibility is there within this paper-thin payroll?
When they made the Andrew Miller trade in 2016, the front office correctly believed they were really close, one piece away from the potential of a deep postseason run. Do you really get that same feeling looking at this roster?
Meisel: Maybe not, but there’s still so much we don’t know about this team. And lining up a healthy Bieber, Plesac and Civale in a postseason series, with an offense bolstered from trade-deadline acquisitions, at minimum, makes you think when pondering the wide-open American League, no? I’m getting ahead of myself. As currently constructed, thanks to injuries and inconsistency, the roster is a bit of a mess.
Lloyd: The obvious answer is to go get a starting pitcher. But who? Pitching always comes with an inflated price, and the Indians historically aren’t willing to overpay. When was the last time they obtained an impact starter at the deadline? Ubaldo Jiménez 10 years ago?
Texas’ Kyle Gibson will be a popular name in trade rumors between now and the deadline. Gibson is having a fantastic year and his price will never be higher. Do you really want to buy at the top of the market for a career .500 pitcher with an ERA over 4.30?
José Berríos would be great, but he’s reaching the point in his contract when the Indians typically trade those guys away, not acquire them. (Berríos will be a free agent after the 2022 season.) And there’s a close to zero chance the Twins would trade him within the division.
Colorado’s Germán Márquez is only 26 and makes a ton of sense, particularly since he’s making a very reasonable $7.5 million this year and is under team control through 2024. It would take a big-time offer to get him, but the Indians are about to hit a 40-man roster crunch that will require bundling a number of prospects in trades similar to what the Padres have done the last couple of years. If I was in baseball jail and could only make one phone call, it would probably be to Denver to gauge the price on Márquez.
Meisel: What crime did you commit to land in baseball jail? Never mind.
The 40-man roster crunch is a significant storyline. The Indians are well aware they’ll need to protect a bunch of Rule 5-eligible players this offseason, and that could prove tricky, so packaging a few prospects in a trade seems plausible. But keep in mind that because there was no minor-league season in 2020, teams are less informed about certain prospects than they usually would be, so the Indians might need to find a team that is either confident in its evaluations or doesn’t mind taking risks.
Anyway, my sense is the Indians don’t feel like outbidding anyone for a rental. That’s not to say they won’t seek to acquire someone signed through only 2021, but they won’t be forking over a ton to do so. Per usual, they are prioritizing long-term solutions. They want players with multiple years of control.
So, while a stopgap starting pitcher makes sense in theory, I’ll turn my attention here toward players who could help for the long haul. (Márquez, by the way, could help, but his price tag soars after this season, and while I think the team’s payroll will increase some in the coming years, I’m not sure he would fit in its plans.)
The Indians are stocked with young middle infielders, but they remain thin in the outfield. Harold Ramirez is intriguing. Maybe Amed Rosario eventually winds up back in center field. George Valera is mighty talented, but a few years from contributing in the majors. Eddie Rosario will probably play in a different uniform in 2022.
Bryan Reynolds catches my attention, and the Pirates seem inclined to at least listen. They could be a team that covets low-level minor leaguers, since they won’t be contending for at least several years, and the Indians have plenty of low-level prospect capital to offer.
Reynolds is the perfect fit. He can play all three outfield spots. He can hit for average and power. He’s a switch hitter who has fared well against lefties and righties. He boasts above-average walk and strikeout rates. His metrics back up his stat line. He’s under team control through 2025. Imagine plugging in a guy slashing .312/.399/.532 into the lineup between José Ramírez and Reyes.
He should be the Indians’ dream target. It would be costly, but they have amassed prospects the last few years to position themselves to be able to make this sort of trade. And it’s the type of deal that makes sense for Cleveland, whether the team sinks over the next month or continues to defy expectations.
Bryan Reynolds has 20 doubles, 13 home runs and 44 RBIs this season. (Charles LeClaire / USA Today)
Lloyd: I love Reynolds’ swing nearly as much as his spectacular mustache that occasionally makes an appearance. I would be shocked if the Pirates made him available, just as I would be if the Rockies actually move Márquez. But there’s a reason Pittsburgh has four winning seasons in the last 28 years, and your point about it seeking low-level prospects is valid.
I guess that’s what makes this a bit of a wonky trade deadline for the Indians, at least to me. This front office has gotten so creative and advanced well beyond the labels of “buyer” and “seller.” They traded Mike Clevinger when the Indians were a game out of first last summer in a deal I initially hated, but have come to appreciate and understand. (The fact Clevinger won’t throw a pitch this year certainly makes it easier to like.)
To that end, Andrés Giménez is scalding-hot right now in Columbus. The Indians have a month to promote him and see if it translates to the majors. If it does, would it really be shocking if Amed Rosario shifted to second and Cesar Hernandez were traded? Particularly if they think Tyler Freeman will be ready to play second base next year? I’m just saying, this front office is usually three moves ahead of everyone else.
And while we’re talking about controllable bats who can play in the outfield, I’ll add Trey Mancini, whose name always seems to creep up this time of year, but has more merit now that he’s only under team control through next season. Mancini is this year’s Carlos Carrasco: an absolutely beloved teammate in Baltimore who missed a year to colon cancer and is now back and thriving. He has played only first base this year, but he has experience in the outfield.
I guess where I get stuck is: What is the target? Are we making moves simply to bolster a potential playoff run this year? Or is the focus on moves to help the club for the next two to three years?
Meisel: Why not both?
Lloyd: When Bieber, Civale and Plesac are healthy, those are three formidable arms to throw at any team, whether it’s September or October. But then what? If the focus is this season, the Indians need at least one more arm to realistically maintain their position in the AL Central.
If the focus isn’t simply surviving the summer and playing into October, then the priorities might shift because eventually/hopefully Triston McKenzie figures out his command issues and evolves into the type of pitcher we’ve seen glimpses of him becoming, and maybe Logan Allen or Cal Quantrill or Sam Hentges figures it out by 2022.
In other words, Cleveland’s pitching needs feel incredibly short term this summer, but also absolutely critical to any serious playoff bid this year.
Meisel: Yeah, that’s where this gets complicated. It’s ambitious enough to strive to acquire a player or two who can help for the next three to five seasons, but if the Indians are still hanging around a few weeks from now, how do you not address whatever weaknesses exist, especially if the rotation remains in shambles? Maybe the Pirates would toss in JT Brubaker. Maybe I’m being incredibly greedy.
The starting pitching market is tricky. I’ve heard from several executives around the league recently that teams want to evaluate opposing pitchers for a bit to see whose performance can withstand the crackdown on sticky stuff. Plus, everyone needs starting pitching. Injuries have spiked across the league, not just in Cleveland. So, demand outweighs supply, which means prices will start out high, and that doesn’t pique the Indians’ interest. That’s why you’ve seen a move like signing Brad Peacock and not a trade for, say, Gibson.
That said, we’re running the show in this exercise, and I’d be searching for any starting pitcher with a pulse who can eat innings and wouldn’t cost a prospect of significance. The bar can’t go much lower.
But the top priority is to fortify the roster for years. Plural. So they’ll need to map out ways to pursue moves of differing consequence. And that doesn’t include your comment about Hernandez. Had Owen Miller demonstrated he could handle big-league pitching, I’d deal Hernandez and not think twice about it. That still shouldn’t be off the table. As you noted, you could reconfigure the infield to make it work.
Lloyd: I’m annoyed I didn’t think of Reynolds. That’s a great call and he does fit perfectly anywhere in the outfield. So let’s play this out. What gets it done? This feels like it would take a package similar to what the Indians received for Clevinger last year. Pitching always comes with a higher price, as we’ve established, but Reynolds is under team control longer (through the 2025 season). The Clevinger return was six players, ranging in experience from MLB-ready (Quantrill, Austin Hedges and Josh Naylor) to close-to-ready (Owen Miller) to very young (Gabriel Arias and Joey Cantillo).
So who are the Indians shipping to Pittsburgh? Brayan Rocchio? Lenny Torres? Aaron Bracho? Ethan Hankins? (Guys coming off Tommy John surgery are traded all the time now.) Hentges? Daniel Espino? Who’s the highest-rated player they’d have to include?
Meisel: Well, is anyone untouchable? I’d say no, but I’d place Freeman, Valera and Bo Naylor in a separate category of players I’d prefer to avoid trading at all costs. They all fill an eventual (or immediate) need at an important position on the diamond. With Freeman, sure, the Indians have plenty of middle infielders, but he seems like a slam-dunk to rack up 180-plus hits a season for a decade.
A trade like that would probably get a bit uncomfortable for the Indians, but they’re going to have to package some prospects who might develop into productive major leaguers. You’re right, though: I wonder if teams will ask for a larger group of players to increase their odds of hitting on one or two of these unknown commodities.
There are other players of Reynolds’ ilk who would make sense. I doubt the Diamondbacks feel inclined to move Ketel Marte, but once healthy, he’d be another no-brainer for the Indians to inquire about, as would Baltimore’s Cedric Mullins, who has already proven he likes spending time with Cleveland’s pitchers. If the Reds opt to sell, teams will be lining up to ask about Jesse Winker, the Indians included. I’m setting my sights ridiculously high with these names, but it’s where I’d start if I had a desk on the fourth floor of the Progressive Field offices.
Lloyd: I have to at least acknowledge that while we’re sitting in the press box at Progressive Field typing out all of these names of hitters the Indians should pursue, the actual Indians hitters have set a season-high for runs in a game (13). Detroit showed up on the schedule right on time.
Anyway, I have one more name. This is going to sound strange and ridiculous, but hear me out: Will the Rays listen to offers on Austin Meadows? He has the second-highest OPS on the team entering the week, so the initial reaction might be “they’re not trading Austin Meadows.”
But these are the Rays. They traded their starting shortstop a few weeks ago for a couple of relievers. They’ll trade anyone at any time (except Wander Franco), and Meadows is basically stuck as their fourth outfielder/full-time DH. It would take a painful amount of prospects to get him, but he is just entering arbitration this winter, and if Franco proves over the next few weeks he’s MLB-ready, moving Meadows would free up the DH slot for a Tampa Bay roster with plenty of candidates to rotate through.
Is it unlikely? Perhaps. But I’d at least make the call. These are two of the most creative organizations in baseball. If anyone can get a deal done, these would be the guys to figure it out.
What about Austin Meadows? (Nathan Ray Seebeck / USA Today)
Meisel: Oh, that’s fascinating. Any other team but the Rays would hang up on us (we’re used to it), but with the Rays, there’s always a chance.
The main takeaway here is the Indians can cast a wide net. They won’t be the only team seeking upgrades next month, but they have the prospect ammunition and motivation to be as aggressive and creative as any team.
Lloyd: I’m not sure we’ve solved anything, but you’ve at least provided me with clarity through this exercise. Pitching is obviously what this team needs more than anything as it enters July, but for a lot of the reasons we’ve already laid out, a bat still seems the most logical move. Or nothing. Do nothing. I could’ve made a stronger case, and tried, for pushing all-in last year, knowing it was probably the Indians’ final season with Francisco Lindor and Carrasco. They didn’t really do that.
This team doesn’t feel like it’s ready to make that deep postseason run, even with one or two slight alterations. So I wouldn’t hate it if the Indians sat out this trade deadline, except for the 40-man crunch that’s looming this winter. That’s real, and it might create the necessary incentive to be aggressive at the deadline — more than the current standings.
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