Terry Pluto notes the lack of quality replacements available for the lineup:
CLEVELAND, Ohio – Scribbles in my Tribe notebook as the team tries to keep its batting average over .200.
1. The Tribe entered this season with the youngest roster in baseball and the lowest payroll. We are starting to see what that means, given some glaring fundamental mistakes and wildly inconsistent performances. Keep the age factor in mind as you read this.
2. I’ve seen enough of Jake Bauers, and it’s likely you have, too. He entered Friday night batting .129 (4-for-31) with one extra-base hit. He didn’t hit in spring training and is a career .211 hitter in 845 big league plate appearances. A change at first base is likely to come soon.
3. I checked on Bobby Bradley, who is in Class AAA Columbus. It’s called the “alternate site.” The Clippers have been able to play a few exhibition games with other minor league teams. I heard Bradley has not been hitting well, struggling to make contact. This was the concern. He fanned 20 times in 49 MLB plate appearances in 2019 (batting .178). In Class AAA that year, he struck out 153 times in 453 plate appearances.
4. Bradley was much better this spring (7 Ks in 35 plate appearances), but it’s clear he still needs to make some adjustments with his swing. That’s why I don’t think Bradley will get the next shot at first base. There could more time for Yu Chang. But I wish he was swinging the bat better, hitting .214 (6-for-28) with two RBI heading into the weekend.
I heard Daniel Johnson has been pretty good in Columbus. As for Bradley Zimmer and Oscar Mercado, I heard they have been just so-so.
8. The Tribe believes it can have a better idea on the prospects once real games begin in May. My favorite, Owen Miller, has been hitting. Nolan Jones also has played some first, along with the outfield as well as his natural third base position. Miller has been mostly at second and third base.
9. The Tribe is pleased with Amed Rosario’s progress in center field, given they switched him from shortstop in the middle of spring training. He wants to learn the position. He’s hitting .182 (.553 OPS) and is only 8-for-44. The Tribe needs the 2019 Amed Rosario, who batted .287 (.755 OPS) with 15 HR and 72 RBI.
13. At Columbus, the Tribe likes how lefty Kyle Nelson and righty Nick Sandlin are throwing. Both could be bullpen possibilities in the near future.
Re: Articles
7982CLEVELAND -- The Indians had stuck with the idea of keeping Jordan Luplow, Amed Rosario or Ben Gamel (in the time he was at the big league level) in the leadoff spot since the end of Spring Training. Now, the club is switching it up.
When a lefty is on the mound, the idea that the Indians would want Luplow to get as many plate appearances as possible makes sense. However, none of the players they’ve put at the top of the order this year are “traditional” leadoff guys. Because of that, Cleveland decided to put Cesar Hernandez, who hit first for the club at times last season, back in the leadoff spot. He hit at the top of the order for the 5-3, 10-inning walk-off win over Minnesota at Progressive Field on Monday in the series opener, going 0-for-4 with a walk and two runs scored, the second of which came as an automatic runner in the extra frame. He crossed home on Luplow's game-winning homer.
“Whoever has been leading off, whether it’s been Luplow or Amed, they’re both kind of ultra-aggressive hitters,” Indians manager Terry Francona said, when asked to explain his decision. “And what I think is happening is a lot of times Cesar is going up there and he’s finding himself in a hole, because our leadoff hitter maybe swung at the first pitch. And you don’t want to tell guys to not hit like they hit, because I don’t think they’ll ever succeed that way. So I just feel like maybe flipping that should help both of them.”
When a lefty is on the mound, the idea that the Indians would want Luplow to get as many plate appearances as possible makes sense. However, none of the players they’ve put at the top of the order this year are “traditional” leadoff guys. Because of that, Cleveland decided to put Cesar Hernandez, who hit first for the club at times last season, back in the leadoff spot. He hit at the top of the order for the 5-3, 10-inning walk-off win over Minnesota at Progressive Field on Monday in the series opener, going 0-for-4 with a walk and two runs scored, the second of which came as an automatic runner in the extra frame. He crossed home on Luplow's game-winning homer.
“Whoever has been leading off, whether it’s been Luplow or Amed, they’re both kind of ultra-aggressive hitters,” Indians manager Terry Francona said, when asked to explain his decision. “And what I think is happening is a lot of times Cesar is going up there and he’s finding himself in a hole, because our leadoff hitter maybe swung at the first pitch. And you don’t want to tell guys to not hit like they hit, because I don’t think they’ll ever succeed that way. So I just feel like maybe flipping that should help both of them.”
Re: Articles
7983What to do with Hentges?
Sam Hentges dazzled in his second Major League appearance on Sunday, tossing 1 2/3 scoreless frames against the Yankees with one strikeout, no walks and just two hits allowed. That type of showing is difficult to ignore for a club that prioritizes pitching. But if he’s kept in the bullpen, would that hinder his chances for being a starter in 2021? These are the conversations that the Indians are now needing to have.
“With Sam, we couldn’t have been more excited by the way he handled things yesterday,” Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti said. “Hopefully that was a step forward for him. We’re actively talking about different ways where we can employ and utilize our pitching staff to give us the best chance to win. Sam’s a big part of that conversation, not only now, but as we think about the balance of the season.”
On the outside, it looks simple: Hentges is pitching well, so he needs to stay to help the big league club. Although he could be of assistance as a reliever, the Indians know that starting-pitching depth is one of the biggest keys to success. And if Hentges has already started to prove that he can handle pitching in the Majors, the team may want to have him as an option (out of Triple-A) if a starter were to be injured.
“If you don’t have a starter or somebody stretched out that you think can do it, that can be a little difficult,” Francona said. “And then the other thing is his development. If you think he can be a starter, by putting him in the bullpen, you’re eliminating a little bit like they don’t have to use all their pitches, especially guys that throw hard. They can almost be a two-pitch pitcher. … I mean, to be a starter, a guy’s got to use all his pitches. Those are things we have to think about.”
Sam Hentges dazzled in his second Major League appearance on Sunday, tossing 1 2/3 scoreless frames against the Yankees with one strikeout, no walks and just two hits allowed. That type of showing is difficult to ignore for a club that prioritizes pitching. But if he’s kept in the bullpen, would that hinder his chances for being a starter in 2021? These are the conversations that the Indians are now needing to have.
“With Sam, we couldn’t have been more excited by the way he handled things yesterday,” Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti said. “Hopefully that was a step forward for him. We’re actively talking about different ways where we can employ and utilize our pitching staff to give us the best chance to win. Sam’s a big part of that conversation, not only now, but as we think about the balance of the season.”
On the outside, it looks simple: Hentges is pitching well, so he needs to stay to help the big league club. Although he could be of assistance as a reliever, the Indians know that starting-pitching depth is one of the biggest keys to success. And if Hentges has already started to prove that he can handle pitching in the Majors, the team may want to have him as an option (out of Triple-A) if a starter were to be injured.
“If you don’t have a starter or somebody stretched out that you think can do it, that can be a little difficult,” Francona said. “And then the other thing is his development. If you think he can be a starter, by putting him in the bullpen, you’re eliminating a little bit like they don’t have to use all their pitches, especially guys that throw hard. They can almost be a two-pitch pitcher. … I mean, to be a starter, a guy’s got to use all his pitches. Those are things we have to think about.”
Re: Articles
7984so a demotion of Hentges would suggest an ultimate promotion into the major league rotation
Re: Articles
7985Taking stock of the Indians’ roster and next wave of reinforcements: Meisel’s Mailbag
By Zack Meisel Apr 27, 2021 43
Sam Hentges received a beer shower after earning his first major-league win on Sunday. Jordan Luplow received a face full of shaving cream, courtesy of Austin Hedges, during the postgame interview that followed his walk-off home run on Monday.
Before those celebrations, the only noteworthy happenings at Progressive Field this week were an array of Yankees home runs and that a flock of seagulls has taken up residence in the upper deck, squawking as they soar in circles above the seats.
Now, on to your questions …
(Note: Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and length.)
Any standout performers from the alternate site games? Is Anthony Gose commanding enough to form a four-headed monster in the bullpen with Emmanuel Clase, James Karinchak and Hentges? — Jack L.
When I view the alternate site box score every morning, the first thing I do is check how many hits Owen Miller collected. If there’s a zero, or even a one, in that column, I rub my eyes to make sure my vision is not impaired. Miller has played second, short and third, and he’s racked up hits no matter his defensive assignment.
“He barrels the ball a lot, has really solid at-bats,” said Andy Tracy, the organization’s Triple-A manager.
The team has rotated Oscar Mercado, Bradley Zimmer, Daniel Johnson and Harold Ramirez through the three outfield spots and designated hitter. Nolan Jones has occasionally appeared in the corner outfield spots and has also seen time at the corner infield spots. Ben Gamel has joined the outfield mix as well.
Tracy said of Johnson: “He’s been great. He can hit. We all know that.”
Tracy also said Bobby Bradley “will be ready whenever they call.”
Cleveland’s bullpen, especially the trio of Clase, Karinchak and Bryan Shaw, has silenced opposing hitters this season. And there’s plenty of help in Columbus, if needed.
Tracy said Gose is “throwing the ball well. He’s right where he needs to be. Breaking ball is coming along, too. He’s throwing his slider and a curveball.” Nick Sandlin has also pitched well, throwing in the mid-90s with his deceptive sidearm delivery.
The Indians got their first glimpse of Hentges in the majors last week, and though he served up a home run to reigning American League MVP José Abreu, he certainly looked like he belonged. His fastball averaged 95.6 mph, and he mixed in a steady diet of curveballs. Terry Francona has stressed they want to keep Hentges stretched out as a starter; he was up to 85 pitches at the alternate site. Chris Antonetti said that as the club attempts to determine the most effective setup for its pitching staff for the remainder of the season, “Sam’s a big part of that conversation.”
How short is Jake Bauers’ leash? I mean, the experiment has to be over soon, eh? — Bill Z.
How much longer until we finally cut bait on Bauers? — Cody T.
Frankly, I’m surprised this hasn’t happened yet. The Indians all but banished him to the bench, instead deploying Josh Naylor at first base and granting everyday opportunities to Amed Rosario and Luplow in the outfield. Not that there’s reason to devote a roster spot to a guy who has registered a .323 OPS (while almost always having the platoon advantage in his at-bats), but it makes even less sense for him to occupy a spot when he’s wasting away on the bench.
Francona said they wouldn’t keep nine relievers for long, though he did mention they would do so through this past weekend. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Hentges return to Columbus to keep working as a starter. Whether to replace Hentges or Bauers on the roster, Johnson would be a logical addition.
There’s room for a left-handed-hitting outfielder.
How’s a certain left-handed former top pick doing? — Edward C.
Assuming it’s the status of Brady Aiken you’re after and not Jeremy Sowers, I can provide this update: He’s technically still a member of the organization, but he’s recovering from thoracic outlet syndrome, a malady that can cause pain, tingling and weakness in the shoulder. I was told he had not been at the team’s complex in Arizona for spring training.
Aiken had stepped away for a bit to evaluate his future but had expressed interest in returning before the arrival of the pandemic last year. The club’s first-round pick in 2015, Aiken is now 24. He has logged a grand total of two-thirds of an inning since 2017 as a result of command issues and injury trouble.
You think ‘Windmill’ Reyes will be able to reach the 40 home runs some analysts had projected for him this year by the end of the 2022 season? — Dan J.
Franmil Reyes has been the least of Cleveland’s offensive troubles this season. But you know that, since you followed up your question a few days later — once he recorded a triple and a three-run blast to fuel an Indians win against the Yankees — with the comment: “Buying his jersey now. Love this guy.”
Reyes is like an IcyHot pack at the plate, scorching hot for a few days, then frigid for a few. He owns a high whiff rate, chase rate and strikeout rate. But he also ranks in the 95th percentile in the league in exit velocity and 94th percentile in hard-hit rate, which explains how he bruises the baseball nearly as often as any other hitter. That tends to result in extra-base hits. He has five homers through 21 games, which puts him on pace for 39 homers this season.
And even with all of the swinging and missing, Reyes boasts a .284/.316/.595 slash line. Not bad for a guy named Windmill.
By the way, Reyes had never recorded a triple in his career and then tallied two of them in the Yankees series. He also notched his first career stolen base. Roberto Pérez swiped his second career base, and his first in 990 days, on Monday.
Any chance that Nolan Jones could be slotted in at 2B? — Robert A.
I don’t think so. Jones is listed at 6-foot-4, and he’s every bit of that, which would make him quite large for a second baseman. Plus, he has enough of a defensive learning curve ahead of him as he continues to shift between the corner infield and outfield spots. He also possesses a strong arm that wouldn’t get as much use at second base.
The primary argument against it, though: The Indians already have Miller and Tyler Freeman in the running for that spot, not to mention the host of players who will eventually vie for the shortstop gig.
Watching the organization trip over itself trying to find a center-field option makes the departure of Tyler Naquin all the more confusing. With a career .275 average, clutch bat and the best “snaaarf” in the bigs, why did the Indians let him go? — Thomas Y.
A primary (and justified) gripe about this team in recent years has been its devotion to playing time for underwhelming veterans, and Naquin, 30, would have qualified for that description before his hot start. His OPS, by year, with Cleveland (2016-20): .886, .520, .651, .792, .632. He had a lousy season in 2020 and has an extensive injury history. To his credit, he’s off to an excellent start this year and the Indians’ outfield continues to be a pit of misery. But this seems like a bit of revisionist history. There’s a reason he had to settle for a minor-league deal and fight his way onto the Reds’ roster.
Price check on a 25-year-old Cy Young Award winner. (Frank Jansky / Getty Images)
Correct me if I’m wrong, but the team doesn’t have any guaranteed contracts on the books for next year. Say the Indians decide to sit down with Shane Bieber this offseason — what does an extension look like? The comps being Jacob deGrom (five years, $147 million) and Max Scherzer (seven years, $210 million). Both were older than Bieber when they signed, though. — David W.
They were older than Bieber, and Scherzer was a free agent with the ability to spark a bidding war for his services. So, not exactly apples to apples. There aren’t many apt comparisons. Bieber is something of a unicorn.
As I’ve written for months, there’s no reason from Cleveland’s perspective not to lock up Bieber long-term. He can’t declare for free agency until after the 2024 season, but the Indians should do everything in their power to secure him for an extra year or two, at least. Bieber said the two sides never engaged in any detailed discussions about an extension during spring training, when the Indians typically initiate that sort of dialogue. Bieber said they can possibly revisit the idea next offseason.
I tackled this question in more detail a couple of months ago. I was probably too conservative in my projection for what Bieber would demand, and that price has only increased, given his continued brilliance on the mound this month.
At this point, given he’s all but cemented himself as one of the top handful of starting pitchers in the sport, I’d think a nine-figure deal would be required. And … so what? The Indians have no financial commitments beyond 2021. The only items on the books past this season are club options for José Ramírez, Pérez and Cesar Hernandez. At most, they’ll exercise two of those.
For the health of the relationship between the organization and fan base, it would behoove them to strike a deal, even if Bieber holds the leverage in negotiations. Let fans invest in someone’s jersey, knowing they won’t have to replace the name on the back in a couple of years.
What’s your overall impression of Andrés Giménez? Are there signs of improvement or is this who he is? — Charles H.
Giménez is only 22, and if we were all considered finished products at that age, well, I suppose I’d be resigned to rocking a hideous haircut/sideburns combination for eternity. I’m not sure Giménez will ever be an ideal top-of-the-order hitter, but he produced as a slightly above-average hitter last year when he had barely cleared the legal drinking age. So far this season, it’s been a mixed bag at the plate. His strikeout rate has ballooned. He doesn’t walk much. But you can see some of the traits that make him an intriguing player. He has nearly doubled his hard-hit rate. Five of his 10 hits are for extra bases. He can steal some bases. He’s certainly a slick fielder at shortstop.
There’s no way to know how Giménez will compare to the middle-infield prospects who will challenge him for playing time in the coming years, but there’s reason to believe he can be a solid option, at minimum, at shortstop.
Sam Hentges received a beer shower after earning his first major-league win on Sunday. Jordan Luplow received a face full of shaving cream, courtesy of Austin Hedges, during the postgame interview that followed his walk-off home run on Monday.
Before those celebrations, the only noteworthy happenings at Progressive Field this week were an array of Yankees home runs and that a flock of seagulls has taken up residence in the upper deck, squawking as they soar in circles above the seats.
Now, on to your questions …
(Note: Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and length.)
Any standout performers from the alternate site games? Is Anthony Gose commanding enough to form a four-headed monster in the bullpen with Emmanuel Clase, James Karinchak and Hentges? — Jack L.
When I view the alternate site box score every morning, the first thing I do is check how many hits Owen Miller collected. If there’s a zero, or even a one, in that column, I rub my eyes to make sure my vision is not impaired. Miller has played second, short and third, and he’s racked up hits no matter his defensive assignment.
“He barrels the ball a lot, has really solid at-bats,” said Andy Tracy, the organization’s Triple-A manager.
The team has rotated Oscar Mercado, Bradley Zimmer, Daniel Johnson and Harold Ramirez through the three outfield spots and designated hitter. Nolan Jones has occasionally appeared in the corner outfield spots and has also seen time at the corner infield spots. Ben Gamel has joined the outfield mix as well.
Tracy said of Johnson: “He’s been great. He can hit. We all know that.”
Tracy also said Bobby Bradley “will be ready whenever they call.”
Cleveland’s bullpen, especially the trio of Clase, Karinchak and Bryan Shaw, has silenced opposing hitters this season. And there’s plenty of help in Columbus, if needed.
Tracy said Gose is “throwing the ball well. He’s right where he needs to be. Breaking ball is coming along, too. He’s throwing his slider and a curveball.” Nick Sandlin has also pitched well, throwing in the mid-90s with his deceptive sidearm delivery.
The Indians got their first glimpse of Hentges in the majors last week, and though he served up a home run to reigning American League MVP José Abreu, he certainly looked like he belonged. His fastball averaged 95.6 mph, and he mixed in a steady diet of curveballs. Terry Francona has stressed they want to keep Hentges stretched out as a starter; he was up to 85 pitches at the alternate site. Chris Antonetti said that as the club attempts to determine the most effective setup for its pitching staff for the remainder of the season, “Sam’s a big part of that conversation.”
How short is Jake Bauers’ leash? I mean, the experiment has to be over soon, eh? — Bill Z.
How much longer until we finally cut bait on Bauers? — Cody T.
Frankly, I’m surprised this hasn’t happened yet. The Indians all but banished him to the bench, instead deploying Josh Naylor at first base and granting everyday opportunities to Amed Rosario and Luplow in the outfield. Not that there’s reason to devote a roster spot to a guy who has registered a .323 OPS (while almost always having the platoon advantage in his at-bats), but it makes even less sense for him to occupy a spot when he’s wasting away on the bench.
Francona said they wouldn’t keep nine relievers for long, though he did mention they would do so through this past weekend. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Hentges return to Columbus to keep working as a starter. Whether to replace Hentges or Bauers on the roster, Johnson would be a logical addition.
There’s room for a left-handed-hitting outfielder.
How’s a certain left-handed former top pick doing? — Edward C.
Assuming it’s the status of Brady Aiken you’re after and not Jeremy Sowers, I can provide this update: He’s technically still a member of the organization, but he’s recovering from thoracic outlet syndrome, a malady that can cause pain, tingling and weakness in the shoulder. I was told he had not been at the team’s complex in Arizona for spring training.
Aiken had stepped away for a bit to evaluate his future but had expressed interest in returning before the arrival of the pandemic last year. The club’s first-round pick in 2015, Aiken is now 24. He has logged a grand total of two-thirds of an inning since 2017 as a result of command issues and injury trouble.
You think ‘Windmill’ Reyes will be able to reach the 40 home runs some analysts had projected for him this year by the end of the 2022 season? — Dan J.
Franmil Reyes has been the least of Cleveland’s offensive troubles this season. But you know that, since you followed up your question a few days later — once he recorded a triple and a three-run blast to fuel an Indians win against the Yankees — with the comment: “Buying his jersey now. Love this guy.”
Reyes is like an IcyHot pack at the plate, scorching hot for a few days, then frigid for a few. He owns a high whiff rate, chase rate and strikeout rate. But he also ranks in the 95th percentile in the league in exit velocity and 94th percentile in hard-hit rate, which explains how he bruises the baseball nearly as often as any other hitter. That tends to result in extra-base hits. He has five homers through 21 games, which puts him on pace for 39 homers this season.
And even with all of the swinging and missing, Reyes boasts a .284/.316/.595 slash line. Not bad for a guy named Windmill.
By the way, Reyes had never recorded a triple in his career and then tallied two of them in the Yankees series. He also notched his first career stolen base. Roberto Pérez swiped his second career base, and his first in 990 days, on Monday.
Any chance that Nolan Jones could be slotted in at 2B? — Robert A.
I don’t think so. Jones is listed at 6-foot-4, and he’s every bit of that, which would make him quite large for a second baseman. Plus, he has enough of a defensive learning curve ahead of him as he continues to shift between the corner infield and outfield spots. He also possesses a strong arm that wouldn’t get as much use at second base.
The primary argument against it, though: The Indians already have Miller and Tyler Freeman in the running for that spot, not to mention the host of players who will eventually vie for the shortstop gig.
Watching the organization trip over itself trying to find a center-field option makes the departure of Tyler Naquin all the more confusing. With a career .275 average, clutch bat and the best “snaaarf” in the bigs, why did the Indians let him go? — Thomas Y.
A primary (and justified) gripe about this team in recent years has been its devotion to playing time for underwhelming veterans, and Naquin, 30, would have qualified for that description before his hot start. His OPS, by year, with Cleveland (2016-20): .886, .520, .651, .792, .632. He had a lousy season in 2020 and has an extensive injury history. To his credit, he’s off to an excellent start this year and the Indians’ outfield continues to be a pit of misery. But this seems like a bit of revisionist history. There’s a reason he had to settle for a minor-league deal and fight his way onto the Reds’ roster.
Price check on a 25-year-old Cy Young Award winner. (Frank Jansky / Getty Images)
Correct me if I’m wrong, but the team doesn’t have any guaranteed contracts on the books for next year. Say the Indians decide to sit down with Shane Bieber this offseason — what does an extension look like? The comps being Jacob deGrom (five years, $147 million) and Max Scherzer (seven years, $210 million). Both were older than Bieber when they signed, though. — David W.
They were older than Bieber, and Scherzer was a free agent with the ability to spark a bidding war for his services. So, not exactly apples to apples. There aren’t many apt comparisons. Bieber is something of a unicorn.
As I’ve written for months, there’s no reason from Cleveland’s perspective not to lock up Bieber long-term. He can’t declare for free agency until after the 2024 season, but the Indians should do everything in their power to secure him for an extra year or two, at least. Bieber said the two sides never engaged in any detailed discussions about an extension during spring training, when the Indians typically initiate that sort of dialogue. Bieber said they can possibly revisit the idea next offseason.
I tackled this question in more detail a couple of months ago. I was probably too conservative in my projection for what Bieber would demand, and that price has only increased, given his continued brilliance on the mound this month.
At this point, given he’s all but cemented himself as one of the top handful of starting pitchers in the sport, I’d think a nine-figure deal would be required. And … so what? The Indians have no financial commitments beyond 2021. The only items on the books past this season are club options for José Ramírez, Pérez and Cesar Hernandez. At most, they’ll exercise two of those.
For the health of the relationship between the organization and fan base, it would behoove them to strike a deal, even if Bieber holds the leverage in negotiations. Let fans invest in someone’s jersey, knowing they won’t have to replace the name on the back in a couple of years.
What’s your overall impression of Andrés Giménez? Are there signs of improvement or is this who he is? — Charles H.
Giménez is only 22, and if we were all considered finished products at that age, well, I suppose I’d be resigned to rocking a hideous haircut/sideburns combination for eternity. I’m not sure Giménez will ever be an ideal top-of-the-order hitter, but he produced as a slightly above-average hitter last year when he had barely cleared the legal drinking age. So far this season, it’s been a mixed bag at the plate. His strikeout rate has ballooned. He doesn’t walk much. But you can see some of the traits that make him an intriguing player. He has nearly doubled his hard-hit rate. Five of his 10 hits are for extra bases. He can steal some bases. He’s certainly a slick fielder at shortstop.
There’s no way to know how Giménez will compare to the middle-infield prospects who will challenge him for playing time in the coming years, but there’s reason to believe he can be a solid option, at minimum, at shortstop.
"I've suffered a great many tragedies in my life....most of them never happened". Mark Twain
Re: Articles
7986Jones at 2nd? No, we have Miller or Freeman etc who can take over 2nd I want to see if Jones can hit lefties; his results in the past have not been good
Re: Articles
7987My posting of the article didn't come out that well, but this was a question and answer. And yeah, that was a dumb question - especially in an organization already loaded at middle infield.
"I've suffered a great many tragedies in my life....most of them never happened". Mark Twain
Re: Articles
7988Franmil Reyes’ target practice, a thin Indians rotation and Oliver Pérez’s farewell: Meisel’s Musings
By Zack Meisel 6h ago 12
When Franmil Reyes approaches third base during one of his home run trots, he flexes his right biceps and points to the bulging muscle.
It’s a reminder to those in the outfield seats to take cover when he stands in the batter’s box. Fans sitting in the left-field bleachers, walking the right-field concourse or wandering through Heritage Park might want to invest in body armor. Just ask the woman who shielded herself in the bleachers Tuesday night as one of Reyes’ home run balls whizzed toward her.
Reyes’ two Tuesday blasts traveled a total of 886 feet, and each left his bat at 111.3 mph. When he connects, his bat might as well sizzle like a fresh plate of fajitas. Reyes ranks near the top of every leaderboard that measures the many ways hitters pulverize baseballs.
Average exit velocity and hard-hit rate? Check: 97th and 98th percentile, respectively. No soft tappers or bloops off his bat.
Maximum exit velocity? Check: 96th percentile. Few hitters sting the baseball with such authority.
Barrel rate? Check: 99th percentile. Reyes frequently produces the degree of contact that most often translates into extra-base hits. He has nearly doubled his rate from 2020 (from 12.9 percent to 24.1 percent).
So what does that all mean? Reyes has the makings of one of the league’s most imposing emerging power hitters. He ranks tied for second in the American League with seven homers, and he boasts a .293/.322/.646 slash line. If we’re nitpicking, his walk rate (3.4 percent) and strikeout rate (33.3 percent) could use some work.
“When his swing decisions are good, he can do a lot of damage,” hitting coach Ty Van Burkleo said. “Right now, he’s really making good decisions. … He’s extremely dangerous. He can hit home runs from foul pole to foul pole.”
OK, but what about hitting the scoreboard?
“I think he can do anything, in terms of power,” Aaron Civale said. “I would not put that past him.”
Since he arrived in Cleveland two years ago, he has targeted the hulking video screen perched atop the bleachers. He and his former Padres teammates used to aim for the Petco Park scoreboard during batting practice. Reyes said he has hit one to the top row of the bleachers, John Adams’ neighborhood, during batting practice at Progressive Field.
That means, he contends, he’s bound to sock the scoreboard at some point. Only Mark McGwire has ever done that at Progressive Field — on April 30, 1997, he pelted the red Budweiser sign at the bottom of the scoreboard on a futile offering from Orel Hershiser. Cleveland fans applauded McGwire for the feat of strength.
“It’s going to happen one day,” Reyes said.
And when it does, Reyes wants a reward.
“I need something,” he said. “I need a gift when I hit the scoreboard. I see love and hugs every day from my teammates and my family. So, please, something else.”
There’s one other way for Reyes to earn accolades for his power-hitting prowess: take part in the Home Run Derby this summer at Coors Field, where he can launch towering fly balls through the thin Colorado air. Reyes has one career homer (and an .898 OPS) in 29 plate appearances at the Rockies’ ballpark.
Carlos Santana participated in the Home Run Derby when Cleveland hosted the All-Star Game festivities in 2019. Before that, no Tribe hitter had entered the contest since Grady Sizemore in 2008.
“He’s got some of the most power I’ve ever seen,” James Karinchak said of Reyes, “and it’s loud when he hits it.”
One other thing to know about Reyes: He enjoys watching (and re-watching) pitchers’ reactions to his home runs, and Twins pitcher Kenta Maeda supplied his favorite during a game in May 2019. Maeda offered another memorable reaction Tuesday as Reyes’ first homer settled near the top of the bleachers.
Rotating
The sturdy backbone of Cleveland’s roster the last few years is suddenly a bit flimsy. Shane Bieber and Civale have embodied consistency and pitched deep into games. After those two, the rotation has been shaky. Zach Plesac insists he made progress in his last start after chatting with Bieber about tweaking his curveball.
It’s the final two spots, occupied thus far by Logan Allen and Triston McKenzie, that have the club scrambling. The Indians optioned Allen to the alternate site after another abysmal outing Wednesday. Sam Hentges or Cal Quantrill will take his spot in the rotation, but really, those two plus McKenzie are essentially covering the last two spots. McKenzie has yet to pitch beyond five innings. Quantrill has yet to throw more than 39 pitches in an outing. Manager Terry Francona has noted the team wants to keep Hentges stretched out; he threw 53 pitches in relief on Wednesday. Eli Morgan and Scott Moss, recovering from spring injuries, are expected to return to action soon in Columbus. Jean Carlos Mejía will join the club’s taxi squad for its trip to Chicago and Kansas City.
Allen surrendered homers to Byron Buxton, Josh Donaldson and Jorge Polanco within the first 10 minutes of Wednesday’s game. At that point, he had allowed six homers in a 12-batter span. In his past three starts, Allen totaled only 5 2/3 innings.
“Baseball’s not easy,” Allen said, “and I had this ability in spring training to take my delivery and throw all four of my pitches with aggression and put it where I want it. Lately, it’s been all aggression and the command has been spotty. I’m putting myself in bad counts. Nothing needs to change with the routine; it’s just tweaking some things here and there because the mindset is there, the confidence is there. … I’m doing a disservice to my teammates doing this multiple times in a row.”
Nick Sandlin is taking Allen’s spot on the active roster to offer some additional bullpen depth. Following an impressive spring training, he has pitched well at the alternate site, throwing in the mid-90s.
Quote to note
“I’m guessing if someone had tried to do a parlay on Franmil having two triples and a stolen base in a three-day period, they probably could’ve won a lot of money in Vegas.” — President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti, on Reyes’ other accomplishments over the weekend
Final thoughts
Oliver Pérez re-signed in February and made the team out of camp. (David Richard / USA Today)
1. When Oliver Pérez received word he was being designated for assignment Tuesday night, he completed a circuit around the clubhouse, thanking and bidding farewell to every teammate and member of the traveling staff, sources said. Pérez also wished fellow lefty reliever Kyle Nelson good luck and encouraged the rookie to seize the opportunity. Pérez made his major-league debut on June 16, 2002, three weeks before Nelson’s sixth birthday.
Pérez, who will turn 40 in August, spent parts of the last four seasons with the Indians. He made only five appearances this year, spanning 3 2/3 innings, in Cleveland’s first 22 games.
“I was having a tough time figuring out how to use him,” Francona said. “For the most part, he was pitching when we were in games that were spread out. That doesn’t necessarily fit the role you want for a lefty specialist.”
2. McKenzie’s ever-fluctuating velocity is a popular talking point. The Indians say they aren’t overly concerned because with the extension his long arms provide — the guy could probably tie his shoes without bending over — his pitches reach the plate sooner than the radar gun might suggest. He ranks in the 88th percentile in whiff rate.
Sure, in a perfect world, McKenzie would throw hard and benefit from his long levers, but Carl Willis & Co. are hopeful that’ll materialize over time as he learns to consistently repeat his delivery. For now, the more pressing issue is his command. His walk rate is about triple what it has been throughout his professional career. And when he misses his spots, because his fastball is averaging only 91.1 mph, hitters are squaring it up.
McKenzie’s fastball in 2020: 92.8 mph, 23.7 percent whiff rate, .328 opponent slugging percentage
McKenzie’s fastball in 2021: 91.1 mph, 31.1 percent whiff rate, .487 opponent slugging percentage
3. The key to the Indians’ victory Tuesday night? Look no further than the group of young children, sitting on the third-base side of the club level, who started shouting, “We want a pitcher, not a belly-itcher” before every Twins offering in the late innings. Right on cue, Twins hurlers issued three walks and plunked a pair of hitters, leading to two Cleveland insurance runs.
4. Karinchak and Emmanuel Clase have combined to log 20 innings this season. They have yet to give up an earned run and have tallied 32 strikeouts, with only five walks and nine hits allowed.
5. A pair of painful minor-league starting pitching updates: Carlos Vargas, added to the 40-man roster over the winter, underwent Tommy John surgery and will not pitch this season. Ethan Hankins, a 2018 first-round pick, also suffered an elbow injury and will visit with doctors in Cleveland this week to determine the severity.
(Top photo of Franmil Reyes: Ron Schwane / Getty Images)
By Zack Meisel 6h ago 12
It’s a reminder to those in the outfield seats to take cover when he stands in the batter’s box. Fans sitting in the left-field bleachers, walking the right-field concourse or wandering through Heritage Park might want to invest in body armor. Just ask the woman who shielded herself in the bleachers Tuesday night as one of Reyes’ home run balls whizzed toward her.
Reyes’ two Tuesday blasts traveled a total of 886 feet, and each left his bat at 111.3 mph. When he connects, his bat might as well sizzle like a fresh plate of fajitas. Reyes ranks near the top of every leaderboard that measures the many ways hitters pulverize baseballs.
Average exit velocity and hard-hit rate? Check: 97th and 98th percentile, respectively. No soft tappers or bloops off his bat.
Maximum exit velocity? Check: 96th percentile. Few hitters sting the baseball with such authority.
Barrel rate? Check: 99th percentile. Reyes frequently produces the degree of contact that most often translates into extra-base hits. He has nearly doubled his rate from 2020 (from 12.9 percent to 24.1 percent).
So what does that all mean? Reyes has the makings of one of the league’s most imposing emerging power hitters. He ranks tied for second in the American League with seven homers, and he boasts a .293/.322/.646 slash line. If we’re nitpicking, his walk rate (3.4 percent) and strikeout rate (33.3 percent) could use some work.
“When his swing decisions are good, he can do a lot of damage,” hitting coach Ty Van Burkleo said. “Right now, he’s really making good decisions. … He’s extremely dangerous. He can hit home runs from foul pole to foul pole.”
OK, but what about hitting the scoreboard?
“I think he can do anything, in terms of power,” Aaron Civale said. “I would not put that past him.”
Since he arrived in Cleveland two years ago, he has targeted the hulking video screen perched atop the bleachers. He and his former Padres teammates used to aim for the Petco Park scoreboard during batting practice. Reyes said he has hit one to the top row of the bleachers, John Adams’ neighborhood, during batting practice at Progressive Field.
That means, he contends, he’s bound to sock the scoreboard at some point. Only Mark McGwire has ever done that at Progressive Field — on April 30, 1997, he pelted the red Budweiser sign at the bottom of the scoreboard on a futile offering from Orel Hershiser. Cleveland fans applauded McGwire for the feat of strength.
“It’s going to happen one day,” Reyes said.
And when it does, Reyes wants a reward.
“I need something,” he said. “I need a gift when I hit the scoreboard. I see love and hugs every day from my teammates and my family. So, please, something else.”
There’s one other way for Reyes to earn accolades for his power-hitting prowess: take part in the Home Run Derby this summer at Coors Field, where he can launch towering fly balls through the thin Colorado air. Reyes has one career homer (and an .898 OPS) in 29 plate appearances at the Rockies’ ballpark.
Carlos Santana participated in the Home Run Derby when Cleveland hosted the All-Star Game festivities in 2019. Before that, no Tribe hitter had entered the contest since Grady Sizemore in 2008.
“He’s got some of the most power I’ve ever seen,” James Karinchak said of Reyes, “and it’s loud when he hits it.”
One other thing to know about Reyes: He enjoys watching (and re-watching) pitchers’ reactions to his home runs, and Twins pitcher Kenta Maeda supplied his favorite during a game in May 2019. Maeda offered another memorable reaction Tuesday as Reyes’ first homer settled near the top of the bleachers.
Rotating
The sturdy backbone of Cleveland’s roster the last few years is suddenly a bit flimsy. Shane Bieber and Civale have embodied consistency and pitched deep into games. After those two, the rotation has been shaky. Zach Plesac insists he made progress in his last start after chatting with Bieber about tweaking his curveball.
It’s the final two spots, occupied thus far by Logan Allen and Triston McKenzie, that have the club scrambling. The Indians optioned Allen to the alternate site after another abysmal outing Wednesday. Sam Hentges or Cal Quantrill will take his spot in the rotation, but really, those two plus McKenzie are essentially covering the last two spots. McKenzie has yet to pitch beyond five innings. Quantrill has yet to throw more than 39 pitches in an outing. Manager Terry Francona has noted the team wants to keep Hentges stretched out; he threw 53 pitches in relief on Wednesday. Eli Morgan and Scott Moss, recovering from spring injuries, are expected to return to action soon in Columbus. Jean Carlos Mejía will join the club’s taxi squad for its trip to Chicago and Kansas City.
Allen surrendered homers to Byron Buxton, Josh Donaldson and Jorge Polanco within the first 10 minutes of Wednesday’s game. At that point, he had allowed six homers in a 12-batter span. In his past three starts, Allen totaled only 5 2/3 innings.
“Baseball’s not easy,” Allen said, “and I had this ability in spring training to take my delivery and throw all four of my pitches with aggression and put it where I want it. Lately, it’s been all aggression and the command has been spotty. I’m putting myself in bad counts. Nothing needs to change with the routine; it’s just tweaking some things here and there because the mindset is there, the confidence is there. … I’m doing a disservice to my teammates doing this multiple times in a row.”
Nick Sandlin is taking Allen’s spot on the active roster to offer some additional bullpen depth. Following an impressive spring training, he has pitched well at the alternate site, throwing in the mid-90s.
Quote to note
“I’m guessing if someone had tried to do a parlay on Franmil having two triples and a stolen base in a three-day period, they probably could’ve won a lot of money in Vegas.” — President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti, on Reyes’ other accomplishments over the weekend
Final thoughts
Oliver Pérez re-signed in February and made the team out of camp. (David Richard / USA Today)
1. When Oliver Pérez received word he was being designated for assignment Tuesday night, he completed a circuit around the clubhouse, thanking and bidding farewell to every teammate and member of the traveling staff, sources said. Pérez also wished fellow lefty reliever Kyle Nelson good luck and encouraged the rookie to seize the opportunity. Pérez made his major-league debut on June 16, 2002, three weeks before Nelson’s sixth birthday.
Pérez, who will turn 40 in August, spent parts of the last four seasons with the Indians. He made only five appearances this year, spanning 3 2/3 innings, in Cleveland’s first 22 games.
“I was having a tough time figuring out how to use him,” Francona said. “For the most part, he was pitching when we were in games that were spread out. That doesn’t necessarily fit the role you want for a lefty specialist.”
2. McKenzie’s ever-fluctuating velocity is a popular talking point. The Indians say they aren’t overly concerned because with the extension his long arms provide — the guy could probably tie his shoes without bending over — his pitches reach the plate sooner than the radar gun might suggest. He ranks in the 88th percentile in whiff rate.
Sure, in a perfect world, McKenzie would throw hard and benefit from his long levers, but Carl Willis & Co. are hopeful that’ll materialize over time as he learns to consistently repeat his delivery. For now, the more pressing issue is his command. His walk rate is about triple what it has been throughout his professional career. And when he misses his spots, because his fastball is averaging only 91.1 mph, hitters are squaring it up.
McKenzie’s fastball in 2020: 92.8 mph, 23.7 percent whiff rate, .328 opponent slugging percentage
McKenzie’s fastball in 2021: 91.1 mph, 31.1 percent whiff rate, .487 opponent slugging percentage
3. The key to the Indians’ victory Tuesday night? Look no further than the group of young children, sitting on the third-base side of the club level, who started shouting, “We want a pitcher, not a belly-itcher” before every Twins offering in the late innings. Right on cue, Twins hurlers issued three walks and plunked a pair of hitters, leading to two Cleveland insurance runs.
4. Karinchak and Emmanuel Clase have combined to log 20 innings this season. They have yet to give up an earned run and have tallied 32 strikeouts, with only five walks and nine hits allowed.
5. A pair of painful minor-league starting pitching updates: Carlos Vargas, added to the 40-man roster over the winter, underwent Tommy John surgery and will not pitch this season. Ethan Hankins, a 2018 first-round pick, also suffered an elbow injury and will visit with doctors in Cleveland this week to determine the severity.
(Top photo of Franmil Reyes: Ron Schwane / Getty Images)
"I've suffered a great many tragedies in my life....most of them never happened". Mark Twain
Re: Articles
7989From a fantasy site obviously, but MORE info than you ever wanted to know about Zach Plesac's April.
Buy or Sell - Ice Cold Start From Zach Plesac
Apr 29, 2021 , by Corbin Young
After a dominant yet unsustainable 2020 campaign, Zach Plesac isn't performing well to start 2021. Last season, Plesac finished with a 2.28 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, a 27.7% strikeout rate, and a 2.9% walk rate in 55.1 innings. His 91.7% LOB% and .224 BABIP allowed likely wouldn't hold up given a larger sample. Although he's still not walking anyone with a 2.5% walk rate in 2021, Plesac's strikeout rate dipped to 17.5% so far.
Again, we know that 2021 involves a small sample of 26.1 innings, but his ERA inflated to 5.81 and his WHIP spiked to 1.18. However, Plesac's BABIP allowed went up to .328 before his recent start against the Twins. After Plesac's most recent start, it dropped down to .286 after never previously eclipsing .255 in his brief major league career. Even his current 55.1% LOB% indicates that he's not stranding many runners, which makes sense given his high ERA. Assuming his BABIP and LOB% even out, Plesac's ratios should lower as well.
Plate Discipline
When looking at overall plate discipline, Plesac's 11.4% swinging-strike rate dropped 3% from 2020 and his chase rate also dropped 3% with a 33.8% O-Swing%. Plesac is also giving up more zone contact and contact overall evidenced by his 86.9% Z-Contact% and 77.9% Contact% compared to an 82.8% Z-Contact% and 72.9% Contact% in 2020. Hitters making more contact and quality contact would contribute to a higher BABIP, again, nothing too unusual here.
Pitch Results
Let's dig a little deeper into Zach Plesac's pitch by pitch data to see if and what results changed. So far, the velocity on his four-seamer looks about the same when comparing 2020 and 2021.
We notice that all of Plesac's pitches have resulted in lower swinging-strike rates and whiff rates. Even the wOBA allowed on all pitches spiked up, but the wOBA on his slider and changeup looked a bit unsustainable and due for regression. These numbers could even out somewhere in between since these current metrics look a bit like the worst-case scenario.
In the past week, I noticed Plesac's slider lost about five inches of vertical movement from 2020 to 2021, meaning it's not dropping as much. Having more vertical movement on his slider could lead to more whiffs. Last season, Plesac's slider finished with a -9 Run Value and so far, it has a -5 Run Value on Baseball Savant. Meanwhile, his changeup went from a -6 Run Value in 2020 to a -1 Run Value in 2021. Those Run Values give us a brief indication that all his pitches, particularly the slider and changeup aren't as effective so far.
Putting Pitches Too Much In the Zone
Although I could've added these stats below all into one table, let's break it up a bit. It seems that Zach Plesac is throwing all of his pitches in the zone more than we'd like. In return, hitters are making more zone contact and contact overall on each pitch except for the four-seamer. This all makes sense in noticing the put-away rates dropped on all of his pitches. He's also allowing harder contact to start the season. Most notably, Plesac's zone, contact and put away rates on the slider and changeup look worrisome, especially with lowered whiff rates on the slider and changeup.
Buy or Sell Zach Plesac Rest of Season?
After several of the surface and underlying metrics fell in Zach Plesac's favor in 2020, it moved in the opposite direction to start 2021. Not just one or two metrics, but almost all of them. That's not great. However, we're dealing with such a small sample of innings and pitches that Plesac could turn it around with some adjustments. One adjustment that stands out includes avoiding (easier said than done) so much contact, particularly inside of the zone, which in turn could potentially lead to a higher chase rate and whiff rates.
Secondly, Plesac could benefit from throwing his pitches outside of the zone more in hopes of hitters chasing more even if it comes at the expense of a slightly higher walk rate.
In redraft and dynasty leagues, Plesac's value is likely at one of its lowest points. In trading leagues, look to acquire Plesac where you can. If it's not clear already on whether to buy or sell Plesac's rough start. I'm selling that this isn't the real Plesac, and he can improve by throwing out of the zone.
It's a gut feel, but I trust Plesac to make those adjustments, especially with the team pitching development. Think Shane Bieber, but to a lesser extent, where Plesac can increase the walk rate with a spike in his strikeout rate as well.
Update: On Monday, Zach Plesac went 7.2 innings while allowing five hits, three earned runs, and one walk with four strikeouts. The results looked decent with increased velocity on all of his pitches. We like the high CSW% on his changeup and curveball with decent whiff rates on all pitches outside of his four-seamer.
[caption id="attachment_88995" align="alignnone" width="1102"]buy or sellZach Plesac Pitch Breaking - April 26, 2021[/caption]
Buy or Sell - Ice Cold Start From Zach Plesac
Apr 29, 2021 , by Corbin Young
After a dominant yet unsustainable 2020 campaign, Zach Plesac isn't performing well to start 2021. Last season, Plesac finished with a 2.28 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, a 27.7% strikeout rate, and a 2.9% walk rate in 55.1 innings. His 91.7% LOB% and .224 BABIP allowed likely wouldn't hold up given a larger sample. Although he's still not walking anyone with a 2.5% walk rate in 2021, Plesac's strikeout rate dipped to 17.5% so far.
Again, we know that 2021 involves a small sample of 26.1 innings, but his ERA inflated to 5.81 and his WHIP spiked to 1.18. However, Plesac's BABIP allowed went up to .328 before his recent start against the Twins. After Plesac's most recent start, it dropped down to .286 after never previously eclipsing .255 in his brief major league career. Even his current 55.1% LOB% indicates that he's not stranding many runners, which makes sense given his high ERA. Assuming his BABIP and LOB% even out, Plesac's ratios should lower as well.
Plate Discipline
When looking at overall plate discipline, Plesac's 11.4% swinging-strike rate dropped 3% from 2020 and his chase rate also dropped 3% with a 33.8% O-Swing%. Plesac is also giving up more zone contact and contact overall evidenced by his 86.9% Z-Contact% and 77.9% Contact% compared to an 82.8% Z-Contact% and 72.9% Contact% in 2020. Hitters making more contact and quality contact would contribute to a higher BABIP, again, nothing too unusual here.
Pitch Results
Let's dig a little deeper into Zach Plesac's pitch by pitch data to see if and what results changed. So far, the velocity on his four-seamer looks about the same when comparing 2020 and 2021.
In the past week, I noticed Plesac's slider lost about five inches of vertical movement from 2020 to 2021, meaning it's not dropping as much. Having more vertical movement on his slider could lead to more whiffs. Last season, Plesac's slider finished with a -9 Run Value and so far, it has a -5 Run Value on Baseball Savant. Meanwhile, his changeup went from a -6 Run Value in 2020 to a -1 Run Value in 2021. Those Run Values give us a brief indication that all his pitches, particularly the slider and changeup aren't as effective so far.
Although I could've added these stats below all into one table, let's break it up a bit. It seems that Zach Plesac is throwing all of his pitches in the zone more than we'd like. In return, hitters are making more zone contact and contact overall on each pitch except for the four-seamer. This all makes sense in noticing the put-away rates dropped on all of his pitches. He's also allowing harder contact to start the season. Most notably, Plesac's zone, contact and put away rates on the slider and changeup look worrisome, especially with lowered whiff rates on the slider and changeup.
After several of the surface and underlying metrics fell in Zach Plesac's favor in 2020, it moved in the opposite direction to start 2021. Not just one or two metrics, but almost all of them. That's not great. However, we're dealing with such a small sample of innings and pitches that Plesac could turn it around with some adjustments. One adjustment that stands out includes avoiding (easier said than done) so much contact, particularly inside of the zone, which in turn could potentially lead to a higher chase rate and whiff rates.
Update: On Monday, Zach Plesac went 7.2 innings while allowing five hits, three earned runs, and one walk with four strikeouts. The results looked decent with increased velocity on all of his pitches. We like the high CSW% on his changeup and curveball with decent whiff rates on all pitches outside of his four-seamer.
[caption id="attachment_88995" align="alignnone" width="1102"]buy or sellZach Plesac Pitch Breaking - April 26, 2021[/caption]
"I've suffered a great many tragedies in my life....most of them never happened". Mark Twain
Re: Articles
7990most amazing to be about that report and others from the same and similar websites is the amount of time devoted to these analyses. I used to think I wasted too much time on baseball statistics. I suppose these guys make a living off of these analyses? I love all the numbers that come with tracking baseball players but the most complex analysis I need is OPS and that one figure Bill James invented to rate them. Never have understood WAR and much of what came after; and I don't need to
Re: Articles
7991Oh yeah, these guys make a living off it or at least they do make money off it.
Two things brought this about:
1. Statcast in every ballpark tracing and tracking everything
2. Daily fantasy (DraftKings and FanDuel primarily) but also legalizing gambling in general. Once legalized it can be finely and accurately studied and publicized. As a result, there is money to be made there since there's a large market for it. People love betting and they love sports.
Again - without Statcast technology much of this wouldn't have been possible so it's the perfect storm of these things coming together. Along with America's large appetite for sports.
Two things brought this about:
1. Statcast in every ballpark tracing and tracking everything
2. Daily fantasy (DraftKings and FanDuel primarily) but also legalizing gambling in general. Once legalized it can be finely and accurately studied and publicized. As a result, there is money to be made there since there's a large market for it. People love betting and they love sports.
Again - without Statcast technology much of this wouldn't have been possible so it's the perfect storm of these things coming together. Along with America's large appetite for sports.
"I've suffered a great many tragedies in my life....most of them never happened". Mark Twain
Re: Articles
7992GAMBLING; that will do it, I'm sure.
Remember riding a CTS bus downtown with friends on the way to an Indians game. An adult on the bus made some comments to us about the odds on that day's pitching matchup. Being well-behaved suburban kids we'd never given a thought to betting on baseball games.
Without gambling I wonder if the sports industry would be the billion dollar enterprise it is?
Remember riding a CTS bus downtown with friends on the way to an Indians game. An adult on the bus made some comments to us about the odds on that day's pitching matchup. Being well-behaved suburban kids we'd never given a thought to betting on baseball games.
Without gambling I wonder if the sports industry would be the billion dollar enterprise it is?
Re: Articles
7993James Karinchak, Emmanuel Clase, ‘Uncle’ Bryan Shaw forming strong foundation for Indians’ burgeoning bullpen
By Zack Meisel 7h ago 7
When the bullpen door swings open and Emmanuel Clase jogs toward the mound, the Progressive Field scoreboard fills up with virtual flames and Lil Wayne’s “Fireman” blares from the ballpark speakers.
Franmil Reyes promised he had a surprise in store for Clase, the 23-year-old often tasked with extinguishing the opponent’s attempt at a ninth-inning rally. No one in the majors throws more 100 mph heat than Clase. So when the Indians returned home last week, Reyes ensured Clase had a new, more appropriate, pyromaniac-approved entrance.
“Trying to fire up my guy,” Reyes said.
Clase has thrown 84 pitches — nearly half of his tosses — that have registered at least 100 mph, the most in the league. Each offering jams lefties or entices righties to helplessly chase or simply forces the batter to stand and marvel at such an otherworldly weapon.
“He’s probably got the best arm in baseball,” James Karinchak said.
He’s one to talk. Karinchak has mastered the execution of his mid-90s fastball and his drop-off-the-face-of-the-Earth curveball. In 10 2/3 innings, he has tallied 22 strikeouts and surrendered only two hits. He ranks atop the league leaderboard in nearly every advanced pitching metric. Since arriving in the majors in September 2019, Karinchak has struck out about half of the hitters naive enough to step in against him.
“They’ve been so good,” Terry Francona said of his dynamic back-end duo.
And they’re part of the reason the manager called a meeting with the bullpen before Cleveland’s series opener in Chicago on Friday.
“I just wanted to remind them how excited I was,” Francona said. “And I asked them to be patient, because I’m going to try to put them where I think they can succeed and keep an eye on their workloads and things like that.”
Francona is still searching for the ideal spots to deploy Nick Wittgren, who has struggled a bit, and Phil Maton, who earned some high-leverage opportunities last season but has pitched mostly in lopsided games this year. The Indians are carrying nine relievers, in part to protect Sam Hentges and Triston McKenzie in the rotation.
Nick Sandlin, a 2018 second-round draft pick, joined the fold Friday. Should the side-armer enter a game this weekend, he’ll pitch in front of his parents, brother, girlfriend and a handful of friends who made the trek to Chicago. Sandlin drew rave reviews for his effort at the alternate site last month, as his fastball reached the mid-90s and, as Francona noted, he made both lefties and righties uncomfortable at the plate.
The organization fast-tracked Sandlin after drafting him out of Southern Mississippi. They considered hurrying him to the majors that year but ultimately opted against it. In 2019, he suffered a forearm injury that required surgery. He spent 2020 at the alternate site in Eastlake, and even when the Indians determined he wouldn’t make the Opening Day roster this spring, they kept him in big-league camp so he could continue to pitch in Cactus League games. They knew it wouldn’t be long before he debuted.
Sandlin and southpaw Kyle Nelson (two career appearances) are the new guys. Nelson replaced Oliver Pérez, who left him with a message of encouragement on his way out of the Indians clubhouse this week after he was designated for assignment. Sandlin and Nelson are 24. Clase is 23. Karinchak and Rule 5 draft pick Trevor Stephan are 25. Cal Quantrill, who will continue to serve as a multi-inning option, is 26.
On the other end of the spectrum is Bryan Shaw, who is on a mission to defy Father Time, pitch into his 40s and chase after Jesse Orosco’s all-time appearances record. He has thrown his patented cutter, which has regained a couple of ticks of velocity, 82 percent of the time, but hitters have yet to convert the pitch into a base hit. Shaw made significant changes while stranded at Seattle’s alternate site last summer. He hinted he could soon start to mix in more curveballs and changeups, two pitches he has rarely featured in the past.
The new-look Shaw — both in terms of overhauled mechanics and bushy, chestnut beard — has limited opponents to one run on two hits in 10 innings, and his underlying metrics suggest it’s no fluke. Hitters are having difficulty making solid contact against him; his opponent exit velocity and hard-hit rate are lower than they ever were during his first stop in Cleveland. In fact, his hard-hit rate ranks in the top 1 percent in baseball.
A few weeks ago, Allen referred to the bullpen as “Uncle Bryan and the rest of the boys.” Shaw said he wants to do “what I can to try to help, while doing my thing to make sure that they don’t take my job.”
He recorded a scoreless seventh inning Friday to pave the way for Karinchak and Clase to secure Cleveland’s 5-3 victory.
“You can probably wake him up in the middle of December and he’ll probably throw 94 (mph),” Francona said.
Shaw, Karinchak and Clase this season have totaled 32 innings and 45 strikeouts, allowing only one earned run.
The Indians bullpen ranks fourth in the majors in ERA, at 2.61. It has the league’s top average fastball velocity, 95.8 mph. The group ranked last in the majors in that category from 2018 to 2020, at 92.7 mph.
That’s reason enough to fill the scoreboard with virtual flames.
“We are really young out there,” Francona said. “But there’s some ammo.”
When the bullpen door swings open and Emmanuel Clase jogs toward the mound, the Progressive Field scoreboard fills up with virtual flames and Lil Wayne’s “Fireman” blares from the ballpark speakers.
Franmil Reyes promised he had a surprise in store for Clase, the 23-year-old often tasked with extinguishing the opponent’s attempt at a ninth-inning rally. No one in the majors throws more 100 mph heat than Clase. So when the Indians returned home last week, Reyes ensured Clase had a new, more appropriate, pyromaniac-approved entrance.
“Trying to fire up my guy,” Reyes said.
Clase has thrown 84 pitches — nearly half of his tosses — that have registered at least 100 mph, the most in the league. Each offering jams lefties or entices righties to helplessly chase or simply forces the batter to stand and marvel at such an otherworldly weapon.
“He’s probably got the best arm in baseball,” James Karinchak said.
He’s one to talk. Karinchak has mastered the execution of his mid-90s fastball and his drop-off-the-face-of-the-Earth curveball. In 10 2/3 innings, he has tallied 22 strikeouts and surrendered only two hits. He ranks atop the league leaderboard in nearly every advanced pitching metric. Since arriving in the majors in September 2019, Karinchak has struck out about half of the hitters naive enough to step in against him.
“They’ve been so good,” Terry Francona said of his dynamic back-end duo.
And they’re part of the reason the manager called a meeting with the bullpen before Cleveland’s series opener in Chicago on Friday.
“I just wanted to remind them how excited I was,” Francona said. “And I asked them to be patient, because I’m going to try to put them where I think they can succeed and keep an eye on their workloads and things like that.”
Francona is still searching for the ideal spots to deploy Nick Wittgren, who has struggled a bit, and Phil Maton, who earned some high-leverage opportunities last season but has pitched mostly in lopsided games this year. The Indians are carrying nine relievers, in part to protect Sam Hentges and Triston McKenzie in the rotation.
Nick Sandlin, a 2018 second-round draft pick, joined the fold Friday. Should the side-armer enter a game this weekend, he’ll pitch in front of his parents, brother, girlfriend and a handful of friends who made the trek to Chicago. Sandlin drew rave reviews for his effort at the alternate site last month, as his fastball reached the mid-90s and, as Francona noted, he made both lefties and righties uncomfortable at the plate.
The organization fast-tracked Sandlin after drafting him out of Southern Mississippi. They considered hurrying him to the majors that year but ultimately opted against it. In 2019, he suffered a forearm injury that required surgery. He spent 2020 at the alternate site in Eastlake, and even when the Indians determined he wouldn’t make the Opening Day roster this spring, they kept him in big-league camp so he could continue to pitch in Cactus League games. They knew it wouldn’t be long before he debuted.
Sandlin and southpaw Kyle Nelson (two career appearances) are the new guys. Nelson replaced Oliver Pérez, who left him with a message of encouragement on his way out of the Indians clubhouse this week after he was designated for assignment. Sandlin and Nelson are 24. Clase is 23. Karinchak and Rule 5 draft pick Trevor Stephan are 25. Cal Quantrill, who will continue to serve as a multi-inning option, is 26.
On the other end of the spectrum is Bryan Shaw, who is on a mission to defy Father Time, pitch into his 40s and chase after Jesse Orosco’s all-time appearances record. He has thrown his patented cutter, which has regained a couple of ticks of velocity, 82 percent of the time, but hitters have yet to convert the pitch into a base hit. Shaw made significant changes while stranded at Seattle’s alternate site last summer. He hinted he could soon start to mix in more curveballs and changeups, two pitches he has rarely featured in the past.
The new-look Shaw — both in terms of overhauled mechanics and bushy, chestnut beard — has limited opponents to one run on two hits in 10 innings, and his underlying metrics suggest it’s no fluke. Hitters are having difficulty making solid contact against him; his opponent exit velocity and hard-hit rate are lower than they ever were during his first stop in Cleveland. In fact, his hard-hit rate ranks in the top 1 percent in baseball.
A few weeks ago, Allen referred to the bullpen as “Uncle Bryan and the rest of the boys.” Shaw said he wants to do “what I can to try to help, while doing my thing to make sure that they don’t take my job.”
He recorded a scoreless seventh inning Friday to pave the way for Karinchak and Clase to secure Cleveland’s 5-3 victory.
“You can probably wake him up in the middle of December and he’ll probably throw 94 (mph),” Francona said.
Shaw, Karinchak and Clase this season have totaled 32 innings and 45 strikeouts, allowing only one earned run.
The Indians bullpen ranks fourth in the majors in ERA, at 2.61. It has the league’s top average fastball velocity, 95.8 mph. The group ranked last in the majors in that category from 2018 to 2020, at 92.7 mph.
That’s reason enough to fill the scoreboard with virtual flames.
“We are really young out there,” Francona said. “But there’s some ammo.”
"I've suffered a great many tragedies in my life....most of them never happened". Mark Twain
Re: Articles
7994Are the Royals for real? Can the Indians get on track? AL Central banter
By Zack Meisel and Alec Lewis May 3, 2021 13
Nearly a month ago, the Royals and Indians convened in chilly Cleveland for a couple of games. We didn’t know much about these teams then, it seems.
We had no idea Mike Matheny’s bunch would soon bloom into an American League titan (or something like that), though the returns of Jarrod Dyson, Wade Davis and Greg Holland should have signaled that was the case. Those guys know where the fairy dust is stored in Kauffman Stadium. We also had no idea that the team from Cleveland, the starting pitching capital of North America, would head into May at .500 with the rotation performing below expectations, Shane Bieber excluded. We all had an inkling he’d once again dazzle on the mound.
There is, however, still plenty we don’t know about these teams as they prepare to duel for four days in the backyard of icons such as Arthur Bryant, Jack Stack and some guy named Joe who makes a killer Z-Man sandwich. Perhaps our beat writers Alec Lewis (Royals) and Zack Meisel (Indians) can clear up some of the unknown before the teams attempt to answer our questions with their play on the field.
First, Alec: Are the Royals for real? If so, who do they/you consider their most legitimate competition in the AL Central? And, most importantly, are you taking good care of Carlos Santana?
Alec: Ah, are the Royals for real — the burning (ends)* question here in Kansas City.
*Horrific pun, but that’s on-brand over here.
This is a hard one to answer. Royals general manager Dayton Moore doesn’t jump the gun until the 40-game mark, so we probably shouldn’t either. But it takes a ridiculous amount of restraint, especially for a franchise that, in 2018 and 2019 combined, lost a cool 207 games.
The simple answer, at minimum, is that they’re vastly improved for obvious reasons. They added outfielder Andrew Benintendi, whose scorching performance of late feels like a preview of the forthcoming humidity. They solidified the outfield defense with center fielder Michael A. Taylor, who leads MLB in defensive runs saved (+7). They added an innings-eater in Mike Minor. And they’ve jumped out to a 16-10 start without arguably their most dynamic player, Adalberto Mondesi.
If Mondesi comes back and plays anywhere close to his level from the end of last season, the Royals will remain in the race. They learned this past weekend, though, the race will not be won simply with fairy dust, but rather by limiting the offense of the Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox. A larger sample is needed to know if that’s remotely possible, and, interestingly, the Royals’ run differential (-3) is worse than Cleveland’s (0). So there are reasons to doubt them.
One of those reasons is not Carlos Santana, however. I hate to do this, especially here, with all of the Cleveland corneas that are looking upon these words. But Santana has been the best player on the Royals’ roster through 26 games. He leads the team in WAR, per FanGraphs, at 1.0. He’s posted a .903 OPS. He’s barreling more balls (12.8 percent) than ever. And his clubhouse presence has been lauded almost laughably.
Again, I do not mean to upset so many so early in this conversation. But it’s true, so what am I supposed to do?
Hide your eyes, Cleveland fans. (Jamie Squire / Getty Images)
Zack: Santana will one day have a plaque in Heritage Park at Progressive Field. He’ll kiss the top of Terry Francona’s head and then deliver a short, but charming, Cleveland ____ (whatever they’ll be called at that point) Hall of Fame induction speech. (Hazards? I like Hazards. It won’t be Hazards. Anyway, that’s a separate discussion.)
All of Cleveland is happy for Santana and would have no issues with him thriving elsewhere. It’s just … well, the Indians’ first-base situation is an eyesore. No, it’s worse than that. It makes viewers want to gouge their eyes out. With a rusty spoon. OK, that’s a bit dark. Then again, have you seen these numbers? (You must be 18 or older to read the next line.)
Cleveland’s first basemen in 2021: .174/.237/.221 slash line, 28 wRC+ (100 is league average)
That batting average ranks 26th in the majors. The on-base percentage ranks 29th. The slugging percentage ranks 30th. That wRC+ is 13 percent worse than the second-worst team in the league at that position, the 8-21 Detroit Tigers.
So, juxtapose those stats with Santana’s numbers and you’ll understand why Cleveland fans might not be ready to gush over Santana’s sizzling start.
Alec: Hazards? I didn’t know I’d want to gouge my eyes out with a rusty spoon, but now here we are.
I’m a Spiders guy. Like, in nickname form. Who likes actual spiders? With what I’ve already said about Santana, this may turn off the entire readership to the idea. But they know in their heart of hearts what’s right.
Almost like they know that they wished you had raised the age limit on looking at those stat lines — Heavens to Betsy. I will say, though, at least the beauty of Bieber’s performances has offset what those first basemen performances have done to those eyes, right?
This gets to something else we should discuss, by the way. The Royals have been quietly doing a Cleveland impression on the pitching side of things. This hasn’t been a John Sherman production, but rather something that was fueled by the amateur scouting department before Sherman became the Royals’ chairman and CEO.
The Royals’ version of Cleveland’s 2016 MLB Draft is their 2018 MLB Draft. They selected right-hander Brady Singer, who nearly no-hit Cleveland last year, in that draft. A lefty prospect, Kris Bubic, who is now pitching out of the big-league bullpen, is from that draft. Monday night’s starter, Daniel Lynch, who may be the best prospect of them all, is from that draft. And there are more: Jackson Kowar, Austin Cox, Jonathan Bowlan, Jonathan Heasley and Zach Haake.
This raises a question, specifically with how Cleveland’s rotation has been of late: What’s your advice for handling this type of starting pitching?
Zack: Bieber was fortunate enough to burst onto the scene when his rotation mates were Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco and Mike Clevinger. That’s quite the group to learn from, and now that those four are gone, Bieber has seamlessly emerged as the staff’s leader, even though he’s only 25. Bieber, Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale, all 2016 draft picks, came through the system together, so it was easy for Plesac and Civale to watch Bieber bloom in 2019, when they debuted in the majors, and attempt to replicate his every move.
Cleveland’s starting pitching pipeline is the result of a years-long collaboration and process-reshaping between the scouting and development departments. It also requires an effective coaching/coordinator setup throughout the minor leagues, plus the proper coaches, front office liaisons and data analysts to help pitchers transition to the majors. As important as anything, though, is the pitchers’ own drive. They have to want to get better. They have to be willing to accept what a coach or coordinator is advising, and that coach or coordinator has to deliver the information in a way that is digestible for the pitcher.
The data suggests I should throw more change-ups? OK, but why does that data suggest that? What am I doing with my other pitches to spark that conclusion?
When a pitcher has a deeper understanding of why certain things work and why others don’t, he’s better off. That’s how you get Bieber creating an otherworldly curveball, then crafting an effective slider and cutter and change-up in a way that allows all of his pitches to play off one another.
It always helps when there are examples to point to, when a lower-level coach can tell a recent draftee that Bieber was pitching at that level only a few years ago. There’s no better motivational tool. It becomes sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy at that point. It’s not foolproof, though. The Indians are working to steer Triston McKenzie and Logan Allen toward the path to prosperity at the moment. Their rotation has actually been a liability two out of every five days this season, in part because Plesac, at 26, is the elder statesman of the bunch.
That helps to explain why this team is 13-13. Some in the rotation have performed great. Some have been atrocious. A few members of the lineup have produced a ton. Many others have floundered.
Alec: We shouldn’t spoil forthcoming stories in this space, but the most prescient line, relating to the Royals’ pitching prospects, was this one: “As important as anything, though, is the pitchers’ own drive. They have to want to get better.”
The Royals have created this pitching pipeline by identifying these types of players (and, really, people), which goes back to the scouting staff. Rarely do we discuss area scouts, but they’re so important in finding out who these guys are. In the case of Lynch, a longtime Royals area scout Jim Farr, who might know more people in the state of Virginia than the governor, established a relationship with the left-hander. It paid off years later because — and this isn’t a well-kept secret — players do in some ways have choices during the draft.
They can steer where they want to go with how much money they ask for. The Royals, an organization that prides itself on the staff and players at the ground level — hence their decision to pay minor leaguers and staff throughout the COVID-19 pandemic — have turned themselves into a sought-after destination.
Back to your point about the players wanting to get better: The Royals have not taken a cookie-cutter approach with these pitchers. They’ve allowed them to operate the way they feel best. Development staffers have provided insights and advice, but it’s up to the players to navigate the ship through, well, hazards, you could say.
It’s been interesting to see this evolution, to say the least. Now, to your point with McKenzie and Allen, it’s going to be interesting to see how these Royals pitchers progress at the big-league level. In the meantime, they’re going to need starter Brad Keller to pick things up. The Royals had expected him to be their horse this season, but he has an 8.06 ERA in 22 1/3 innings.
Zack: This usually doesn’t happen without some growing pains or bumps in the road. Bieber is the exception to the rule. It’ll be fascinating to watch how quickly it all comes together for the Royals’ staff, especially if they hang around in the division race all summer. The Indians, likewise, are still feeling out exactly who and what they are, how much patience they should exhibit with certain guys, and how soon they should call upon reinforcements from the minors.
There are clearly four teams in the AL Central who figure to pester each other for the next five months. The Twins just took two of three from the Royals after dropping two of three in Cleveland. The Indians and White Sox have already squared off eight times and played to a 4-4 draw. The Royals have surprised many with their winning ways. The Twins surprised many with their 7-15 start. And the Tigers have played the role of everyone’s punching bag.
From a surface-level view, the White Sox and Twins still seem like the two most formidable contenders of the group, but all four of these teams have flaws, and I’m not sure there’s as much separating them as I thought a month ago.
Alec: That’s exactly why Royals fans are so stoked. Well, that, and the fact they haven’t seen this many wins this early since 2003. It would be hazardous to tell you how old I was then, so we’ll save it.
This should be an interesting series, another slate of games that will shed more light on the state of these two small-market clubs. In the meantime, sit back. Relax. And watch Carlos Santana rake.
Nearly a month ago, the Royals and Indians convened in chilly Cleveland for a couple of games. We didn’t know much about these teams then, it seems.
We had no idea Mike Matheny’s bunch would soon bloom into an American League titan (or something like that), though the returns of Jarrod Dyson, Wade Davis and Greg Holland should have signaled that was the case. Those guys know where the fairy dust is stored in Kauffman Stadium. We also had no idea that the team from Cleveland, the starting pitching capital of North America, would head into May at .500 with the rotation performing below expectations, Shane Bieber excluded. We all had an inkling he’d once again dazzle on the mound.
There is, however, still plenty we don’t know about these teams as they prepare to duel for four days in the backyard of icons such as Arthur Bryant, Jack Stack and some guy named Joe who makes a killer Z-Man sandwich. Perhaps our beat writers Alec Lewis (Royals) and Zack Meisel (Indians) can clear up some of the unknown before the teams attempt to answer our questions with their play on the field.
First, Alec: Are the Royals for real? If so, who do they/you consider their most legitimate competition in the AL Central? And, most importantly, are you taking good care of Carlos Santana?
Alec: Ah, are the Royals for real — the burning (ends)* question here in Kansas City.
*Horrific pun, but that’s on-brand over here.
This is a hard one to answer. Royals general manager Dayton Moore doesn’t jump the gun until the 40-game mark, so we probably shouldn’t either. But it takes a ridiculous amount of restraint, especially for a franchise that, in 2018 and 2019 combined, lost a cool 207 games.
The simple answer, at minimum, is that they’re vastly improved for obvious reasons. They added outfielder Andrew Benintendi, whose scorching performance of late feels like a preview of the forthcoming humidity. They solidified the outfield defense with center fielder Michael A. Taylor, who leads MLB in defensive runs saved (+7). They added an innings-eater in Mike Minor. And they’ve jumped out to a 16-10 start without arguably their most dynamic player, Adalberto Mondesi.
If Mondesi comes back and plays anywhere close to his level from the end of last season, the Royals will remain in the race. They learned this past weekend, though, the race will not be won simply with fairy dust, but rather by limiting the offense of the Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox. A larger sample is needed to know if that’s remotely possible, and, interestingly, the Royals’ run differential (-3) is worse than Cleveland’s (0). So there are reasons to doubt them.
One of those reasons is not Carlos Santana, however. I hate to do this, especially here, with all of the Cleveland corneas that are looking upon these words. But Santana has been the best player on the Royals’ roster through 26 games. He leads the team in WAR, per FanGraphs, at 1.0. He’s posted a .903 OPS. He’s barreling more balls (12.8 percent) than ever. And his clubhouse presence has been lauded almost laughably.
Again, I do not mean to upset so many so early in this conversation. But it’s true, so what am I supposed to do?
Hide your eyes, Cleveland fans. (Jamie Squire / Getty Images)
Zack: Santana will one day have a plaque in Heritage Park at Progressive Field. He’ll kiss the top of Terry Francona’s head and then deliver a short, but charming, Cleveland ____ (whatever they’ll be called at that point) Hall of Fame induction speech. (Hazards? I like Hazards. It won’t be Hazards. Anyway, that’s a separate discussion.)
All of Cleveland is happy for Santana and would have no issues with him thriving elsewhere. It’s just … well, the Indians’ first-base situation is an eyesore. No, it’s worse than that. It makes viewers want to gouge their eyes out. With a rusty spoon. OK, that’s a bit dark. Then again, have you seen these numbers? (You must be 18 or older to read the next line.)
Cleveland’s first basemen in 2021: .174/.237/.221 slash line, 28 wRC+ (100 is league average)
That batting average ranks 26th in the majors. The on-base percentage ranks 29th. The slugging percentage ranks 30th. That wRC+ is 13 percent worse than the second-worst team in the league at that position, the 8-21 Detroit Tigers.
So, juxtapose those stats with Santana’s numbers and you’ll understand why Cleveland fans might not be ready to gush over Santana’s sizzling start.
Alec: Hazards? I didn’t know I’d want to gouge my eyes out with a rusty spoon, but now here we are.
I’m a Spiders guy. Like, in nickname form. Who likes actual spiders? With what I’ve already said about Santana, this may turn off the entire readership to the idea. But they know in their heart of hearts what’s right.
Almost like they know that they wished you had raised the age limit on looking at those stat lines — Heavens to Betsy. I will say, though, at least the beauty of Bieber’s performances has offset what those first basemen performances have done to those eyes, right?
This gets to something else we should discuss, by the way. The Royals have been quietly doing a Cleveland impression on the pitching side of things. This hasn’t been a John Sherman production, but rather something that was fueled by the amateur scouting department before Sherman became the Royals’ chairman and CEO.
The Royals’ version of Cleveland’s 2016 MLB Draft is their 2018 MLB Draft. They selected right-hander Brady Singer, who nearly no-hit Cleveland last year, in that draft. A lefty prospect, Kris Bubic, who is now pitching out of the big-league bullpen, is from that draft. Monday night’s starter, Daniel Lynch, who may be the best prospect of them all, is from that draft. And there are more: Jackson Kowar, Austin Cox, Jonathan Bowlan, Jonathan Heasley and Zach Haake.
This raises a question, specifically with how Cleveland’s rotation has been of late: What’s your advice for handling this type of starting pitching?
Zack: Bieber was fortunate enough to burst onto the scene when his rotation mates were Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco and Mike Clevinger. That’s quite the group to learn from, and now that those four are gone, Bieber has seamlessly emerged as the staff’s leader, even though he’s only 25. Bieber, Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale, all 2016 draft picks, came through the system together, so it was easy for Plesac and Civale to watch Bieber bloom in 2019, when they debuted in the majors, and attempt to replicate his every move.
Cleveland’s starting pitching pipeline is the result of a years-long collaboration and process-reshaping between the scouting and development departments. It also requires an effective coaching/coordinator setup throughout the minor leagues, plus the proper coaches, front office liaisons and data analysts to help pitchers transition to the majors. As important as anything, though, is the pitchers’ own drive. They have to want to get better. They have to be willing to accept what a coach or coordinator is advising, and that coach or coordinator has to deliver the information in a way that is digestible for the pitcher.
The data suggests I should throw more change-ups? OK, but why does that data suggest that? What am I doing with my other pitches to spark that conclusion?
When a pitcher has a deeper understanding of why certain things work and why others don’t, he’s better off. That’s how you get Bieber creating an otherworldly curveball, then crafting an effective slider and cutter and change-up in a way that allows all of his pitches to play off one another.
It always helps when there are examples to point to, when a lower-level coach can tell a recent draftee that Bieber was pitching at that level only a few years ago. There’s no better motivational tool. It becomes sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy at that point. It’s not foolproof, though. The Indians are working to steer Triston McKenzie and Logan Allen toward the path to prosperity at the moment. Their rotation has actually been a liability two out of every five days this season, in part because Plesac, at 26, is the elder statesman of the bunch.
That helps to explain why this team is 13-13. Some in the rotation have performed great. Some have been atrocious. A few members of the lineup have produced a ton. Many others have floundered.
Alec: We shouldn’t spoil forthcoming stories in this space, but the most prescient line, relating to the Royals’ pitching prospects, was this one: “As important as anything, though, is the pitchers’ own drive. They have to want to get better.”
The Royals have created this pitching pipeline by identifying these types of players (and, really, people), which goes back to the scouting staff. Rarely do we discuss area scouts, but they’re so important in finding out who these guys are. In the case of Lynch, a longtime Royals area scout Jim Farr, who might know more people in the state of Virginia than the governor, established a relationship with the left-hander. It paid off years later because — and this isn’t a well-kept secret — players do in some ways have choices during the draft.
They can steer where they want to go with how much money they ask for. The Royals, an organization that prides itself on the staff and players at the ground level — hence their decision to pay minor leaguers and staff throughout the COVID-19 pandemic — have turned themselves into a sought-after destination.
Back to your point about the players wanting to get better: The Royals have not taken a cookie-cutter approach with these pitchers. They’ve allowed them to operate the way they feel best. Development staffers have provided insights and advice, but it’s up to the players to navigate the ship through, well, hazards, you could say.
It’s been interesting to see this evolution, to say the least. Now, to your point with McKenzie and Allen, it’s going to be interesting to see how these Royals pitchers progress at the big-league level. In the meantime, they’re going to need starter Brad Keller to pick things up. The Royals had expected him to be their horse this season, but he has an 8.06 ERA in 22 1/3 innings.
Zack: This usually doesn’t happen without some growing pains or bumps in the road. Bieber is the exception to the rule. It’ll be fascinating to watch how quickly it all comes together for the Royals’ staff, especially if they hang around in the division race all summer. The Indians, likewise, are still feeling out exactly who and what they are, how much patience they should exhibit with certain guys, and how soon they should call upon reinforcements from the minors.
There are clearly four teams in the AL Central who figure to pester each other for the next five months. The Twins just took two of three from the Royals after dropping two of three in Cleveland. The Indians and White Sox have already squared off eight times and played to a 4-4 draw. The Royals have surprised many with their winning ways. The Twins surprised many with their 7-15 start. And the Tigers have played the role of everyone’s punching bag.
From a surface-level view, the White Sox and Twins still seem like the two most formidable contenders of the group, but all four of these teams have flaws, and I’m not sure there’s as much separating them as I thought a month ago.
Alec: That’s exactly why Royals fans are so stoked. Well, that, and the fact they haven’t seen this many wins this early since 2003. It would be hazardous to tell you how old I was then, so we’ll save it.
This should be an interesting series, another slate of games that will shed more light on the state of these two small-market clubs. In the meantime, sit back. Relax. And watch Carlos Santana rake.
"I've suffered a great many tragedies in my life....most of them never happened". Mark Twain
Re: Articles
7995From low to high, assessing the panic meter for each scuffling Indians hitter
By Zack Meisel May 4, 2021 32
Eventually, José Ramírez will start to heat up at the plate. His metrics suggest there are better days ahead, that he’ll begin to reap the rewards for his input in the batter’s box.
Oh, what’s that? Ramírez’s OPS is .971 and he’s on pace for about 50 home runs, 25 stolen bases and 25 doubles, and that’s despite some lousy luck at the plate? Well then.
Not every Cleveland hitter has thrived in the face of poor fortune in the early going. Some have scuffled, offered few signs of hope and forced the front office to consider when to pull the trigger on a roster move.
Ramírez ranks near the top of every category that measures offensive output in a standard or metric sense. His exit velocity, expected batting average and slugging percentages, hard-hit rate and strikeout rate are all career bests. He has walked more than he has struck out.
There’s no need to be concerned about the heartbeat of the Indians’ lineup. But what about the rest of the hitters in manager Terry Francona’s lineup? The 2021 sample is still small, so in most cases, it’s a bit premature to smack the panic button, but let’s peek under the hood and assess the sense of urgency for each slow starter.
Cesar Hernandez
Slash line: .194/.313/.286
The surface-level numbers aren’t pretty, but there are encouraging signs. For one, his walk rate is a healthy 14.8 percent, which ranks in the 90th percentile in the league. That’s a great quality for a leadoff hitter.
Hits are important, too, however. Cesar Hernandez led the league with 20 doubles last season, but his metrics, oddly enough, suggest he should be piling up far more extra-base hits this year. His barrel rate has more than doubled from last year. His xSLG (expected slugging percentage, which incorporates exit velocity, launch angle and sprint speed — and Hernandez has been one of the league’s fastest players — to determine what a player’s slugging percentage should be if life were fair) is the best, by far, of his career.
2020 expected slugging percentage: .396
2020 actual slugging percentage: .408
2021 expected slugging percentage: .488
2021 actual slugging percentage: .286
This is all a fancy way of saying that Hernandez has had some rotten luck to this point. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is .221. The league average is .284. That’ll correct itself over time.
“It just takes time to warm up and get things going,” Hernandez said Sunday after he socked his second home run of the season. “I was making good connections, but they were coming in front of fielders.”
The kicker here, though, is the Indians are committed to Hernandez for only this season. They hold a club option on him for 2022. Owen Miller seems poised to showcase his intriguing bat at some point this year. He played second, short and third at the alternate site. So, if for some reason Hernandez doesn’t rebound or the team feels compelled to move on, there’s a second base candidate ready for an opportunity. That factors into the panic equation.
Panic meter: Low
Roberto Pérez
Slash line: .131/.274/.295
Roberto Pérez wants to recreate his 2019 season, when he produced a solid walk rate (10 percent) and plenty of power (24 homers). Well, his 2021 walk rate sits at 15.1 percent, the highest mark of his career.
Based on his metrics, Pérez is hitting the ball harder than he ever has and is doing so more frequently than he ever has, but to hit the ball hard, one must make contact. Pérez’s contact rate is down considerably, and his whiff rate has soared. Pérez has always racked up strikeouts, and he’s doing so at an exorbitant rate this season, but the team will live with that as long as he’s hitting for some power and drawing walks (and, most importantly, directing Cleveland’s pitchers through each outing).
One other wrinkle: Pérez suffered a non-displaced fracture in his right ring finger when he and James Karinchak got crossed up a couple weeks ago in Chicago. Doctors determined he could play through it, and the hope is that it heals in about another week or so. But as Francona noted: “I don’t think it helps (at the plate), especially when it’s cold.”
Panic meter: Low/Medium
Eddie Rosario
Slash line: .230/.278/.370
His metrics aren’t overly encouraging, but Eddie Rosario is a bit of an enigma. He’ll always have a low walk rate and a high chase rate. He has never hesitated to indulge a pitcher who misses the strike zone, and he has somehow carried a pretty successful contact rate on those pitches. His strikeout rate isn’t alarming by any means.
So, it’s just been a matter of making quality contact, which to this point, has proven difficult — at least, until he socked a go-ahead, three-run blast at Kauffman Stadium on Monday night. Many of his underlying metrics resemble the marks from 2018 and 2020, when Rosario posted an OPS of .803 and .792, respectively. At the moment, his OPS stands at .648.
Rosario is likely only a one-year stopgap in the outfield. There’s no long-term commitment. But the Indians were banking on him serving as a steady, middle-of-the-order presence to support Ramírez and Franmil Reyes. Perhaps his bat simply needs some time to thaw.
Rosario’s career OPS, by month:
March/April: .691
May: .825
June: .875
July: .777
August: .763
September/October: .792
Panic meter: Low/Medium
Josh Naylor
Slash line: .262/.303/.405
This is a tricky one because we don’t have a ton of evidence at our disposal since Josh Naylor is only 23. He hit at every level of the minors, and fared well against lefties and righties, but to this point, it hasn’t translated at the major-league level.
Naylor has hit the ball hard, and done so at an encouraging rate, but, somehow, until Monday, he had yet to hit a home run, a really strange storyline for a 250-pound guy who boasts an elite maximum exit velocity. He has collected nine doubles. His OPS jumped 72 points with his RBI double and two-run homer on Monday.
“I was pretty loud,” Reyes said. “I was really happy that he finally hit his first homer of this season. I know he’s going to do a lot of damage this year. I think he’s ready to start going.”
Naylor’s walk rate is quite low (4.4 percent), and although his strikeout rate isn’t appalling, it is nearly double last year’s mark. In his last two years in the minors, Naylor’s walks and strikeouts were about even. A quick examination of Naylor’s plate discipline metrics reveal he’s swinging more frequently, chasing more frequently and making contact less frequently. Based on that, it almost seems as though Naylor has set his own panic meter on high.
Perhaps the tally in the home run column will alleviate some pressure.
Panic meter: Medium
Andres Giménez
Slash line: .175/.224/.333
He’s hitting the ball harder and doing so more frequently than he did last year as a 21-year-old rookie, which explains why six of his 11 hits this season have resulted in extra bases. He’s also striking out 31 percent of the time, with a sky-high whiff rate.
There’s not much of a track record because Andres Giménez is so young and inexperienced, so no one really knows how this will unfold. If he can reach base more, he can showcase his speed (81st percentile in sprint speed, three stolen bases). His low walk rate won’t help with that, though.
From Giménez’s perspective, this is an important year because he can stake claim to the shortstop position before Miller, Tyler Freeman and Gabriel Arias attempt to usurp that spot. Of course, Giménez is only 22 — younger than Miller and Amed Rosario and only slightly older than Freeman and Arias. He’s far from a finished product.
Panic meter: Medium
Jake Bauers
Slash line: .182/.265/.227
Jake Bauers’ metrics suggest he should have fared a bit better during the first month of the season — but not to the degree that would make him a worthwhile recipient of regular playing time. He has had the platoon advantage in 82 percent of his plate appearances, but he hasn’t capitalized. He owns a .463 OPS against righties this year.
The team has indicated how it feels by carving into Bauers’ playing time with first-base opportunities for Yu Chang and Naylor. Bobby Bradley could be next, eventually. (Chang has been even less productive, for what it’s worth, with even uglier metrics. The Indians have supplied the worst first-base production, by miles, in the league.) Because of the other available options, and Bauers exhibiting few signs that a dramatic turnaround lies ahead, a change seems inevitable. After all, there were never lofty expectations for this experiment, since the primary driver for Bauers’ inclusion on the Opening Day roster was his lack of minor-league options. For those reasons, “panic” doesn’t seem like the right word here.
Panic meter: Medium/High
Amed Rosario
Slash line: .197/.265/.329
Few players are as fast as Rosario, so to capitalize on that speed, the more often he puts the ball in play, the better. He’s running the best walk rate (8.4 percent) of his career by far, and the best strikeout rate (16.9 percent) as well. He’s showing more patience at the plate, with a significantly improved chase rate.
It’s just, well, he doesn’t hit the ball with much authority. He tops it far more often than the average hitter does. And if he can’t reach base with regularity, his wheels go to waste. He finally swiped his first base Sunday.
It’s difficult to know what to make of Rosario, who has learned a new position in the last eight weeks, has joined a new league full of unfamiliar pitchers and is still only 25. His 2019 season stands out: He posted a .287/.323/.432 slash line with 15 homers and 19 stolen bases, and he insists that’s the standard he can replicate. But for a guy who debuted in the majors in 2017, that’s the only shred of evidence that suggests he can be a reliable, everyday contributor at the plate.
Rosario has always hit lefties …
2017: .297/.316/.514
2018: .284/.318/.426
2019: .311/.360/.527
2020: .316/.350/.421
2021: .278/.350/.417
Against righties, on the other hand …
2017: .234/.258/.359
2018: .247/.288/.366
2019: .280/.311/.402
2020: .209/.218/.337
2021: .125/.186/.250
The 2021 sample is the smallest of the bunch, but he’ll need to prove he’s more than a platoon player trying to learn center field on the fly.
Panic meter: Medium/High
By Zack Meisel May 4, 2021 32
Eventually, José Ramírez will start to heat up at the plate. His metrics suggest there are better days ahead, that he’ll begin to reap the rewards for his input in the batter’s box.
Oh, what’s that? Ramírez’s OPS is .971 and he’s on pace for about 50 home runs, 25 stolen bases and 25 doubles, and that’s despite some lousy luck at the plate? Well then.
Not every Cleveland hitter has thrived in the face of poor fortune in the early going. Some have scuffled, offered few signs of hope and forced the front office to consider when to pull the trigger on a roster move.
Ramírez ranks near the top of every category that measures offensive output in a standard or metric sense. His exit velocity, expected batting average and slugging percentages, hard-hit rate and strikeout rate are all career bests. He has walked more than he has struck out.
There’s no need to be concerned about the heartbeat of the Indians’ lineup. But what about the rest of the hitters in manager Terry Francona’s lineup? The 2021 sample is still small, so in most cases, it’s a bit premature to smack the panic button, but let’s peek under the hood and assess the sense of urgency for each slow starter.
Cesar Hernandez
Slash line: .194/.313/.286
The surface-level numbers aren’t pretty, but there are encouraging signs. For one, his walk rate is a healthy 14.8 percent, which ranks in the 90th percentile in the league. That’s a great quality for a leadoff hitter.
Hits are important, too, however. Cesar Hernandez led the league with 20 doubles last season, but his metrics, oddly enough, suggest he should be piling up far more extra-base hits this year. His barrel rate has more than doubled from last year. His xSLG (expected slugging percentage, which incorporates exit velocity, launch angle and sprint speed — and Hernandez has been one of the league’s fastest players — to determine what a player’s slugging percentage should be if life were fair) is the best, by far, of his career.
2020 expected slugging percentage: .396
2020 actual slugging percentage: .408
2021 expected slugging percentage: .488
2021 actual slugging percentage: .286
This is all a fancy way of saying that Hernandez has had some rotten luck to this point. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is .221. The league average is .284. That’ll correct itself over time.
“It just takes time to warm up and get things going,” Hernandez said Sunday after he socked his second home run of the season. “I was making good connections, but they were coming in front of fielders.”
The kicker here, though, is the Indians are committed to Hernandez for only this season. They hold a club option on him for 2022. Owen Miller seems poised to showcase his intriguing bat at some point this year. He played second, short and third at the alternate site. So, if for some reason Hernandez doesn’t rebound or the team feels compelled to move on, there’s a second base candidate ready for an opportunity. That factors into the panic equation.
Panic meter: Low
Roberto Pérez
Slash line: .131/.274/.295
Roberto Pérez wants to recreate his 2019 season, when he produced a solid walk rate (10 percent) and plenty of power (24 homers). Well, his 2021 walk rate sits at 15.1 percent, the highest mark of his career.
Based on his metrics, Pérez is hitting the ball harder than he ever has and is doing so more frequently than he ever has, but to hit the ball hard, one must make contact. Pérez’s contact rate is down considerably, and his whiff rate has soared. Pérez has always racked up strikeouts, and he’s doing so at an exorbitant rate this season, but the team will live with that as long as he’s hitting for some power and drawing walks (and, most importantly, directing Cleveland’s pitchers through each outing).
One other wrinkle: Pérez suffered a non-displaced fracture in his right ring finger when he and James Karinchak got crossed up a couple weeks ago in Chicago. Doctors determined he could play through it, and the hope is that it heals in about another week or so. But as Francona noted: “I don’t think it helps (at the plate), especially when it’s cold.”
Panic meter: Low/Medium
Eddie Rosario
Slash line: .230/.278/.370
His metrics aren’t overly encouraging, but Eddie Rosario is a bit of an enigma. He’ll always have a low walk rate and a high chase rate. He has never hesitated to indulge a pitcher who misses the strike zone, and he has somehow carried a pretty successful contact rate on those pitches. His strikeout rate isn’t alarming by any means.
So, it’s just been a matter of making quality contact, which to this point, has proven difficult — at least, until he socked a go-ahead, three-run blast at Kauffman Stadium on Monday night. Many of his underlying metrics resemble the marks from 2018 and 2020, when Rosario posted an OPS of .803 and .792, respectively. At the moment, his OPS stands at .648.
Rosario is likely only a one-year stopgap in the outfield. There’s no long-term commitment. But the Indians were banking on him serving as a steady, middle-of-the-order presence to support Ramírez and Franmil Reyes. Perhaps his bat simply needs some time to thaw.
Rosario’s career OPS, by month:
March/April: .691
May: .825
June: .875
July: .777
August: .763
September/October: .792
Panic meter: Low/Medium
Josh Naylor
Slash line: .262/.303/.405
This is a tricky one because we don’t have a ton of evidence at our disposal since Josh Naylor is only 23. He hit at every level of the minors, and fared well against lefties and righties, but to this point, it hasn’t translated at the major-league level.
Naylor has hit the ball hard, and done so at an encouraging rate, but, somehow, until Monday, he had yet to hit a home run, a really strange storyline for a 250-pound guy who boasts an elite maximum exit velocity. He has collected nine doubles. His OPS jumped 72 points with his RBI double and two-run homer on Monday.
“I was pretty loud,” Reyes said. “I was really happy that he finally hit his first homer of this season. I know he’s going to do a lot of damage this year. I think he’s ready to start going.”
Naylor’s walk rate is quite low (4.4 percent), and although his strikeout rate isn’t appalling, it is nearly double last year’s mark. In his last two years in the minors, Naylor’s walks and strikeouts were about even. A quick examination of Naylor’s plate discipline metrics reveal he’s swinging more frequently, chasing more frequently and making contact less frequently. Based on that, it almost seems as though Naylor has set his own panic meter on high.
Perhaps the tally in the home run column will alleviate some pressure.
Panic meter: Medium
Andres Giménez
Slash line: .175/.224/.333
He’s hitting the ball harder and doing so more frequently than he did last year as a 21-year-old rookie, which explains why six of his 11 hits this season have resulted in extra bases. He’s also striking out 31 percent of the time, with a sky-high whiff rate.
There’s not much of a track record because Andres Giménez is so young and inexperienced, so no one really knows how this will unfold. If he can reach base more, he can showcase his speed (81st percentile in sprint speed, three stolen bases). His low walk rate won’t help with that, though.
From Giménez’s perspective, this is an important year because he can stake claim to the shortstop position before Miller, Tyler Freeman and Gabriel Arias attempt to usurp that spot. Of course, Giménez is only 22 — younger than Miller and Amed Rosario and only slightly older than Freeman and Arias. He’s far from a finished product.
Panic meter: Medium
Jake Bauers
Slash line: .182/.265/.227
Jake Bauers’ metrics suggest he should have fared a bit better during the first month of the season — but not to the degree that would make him a worthwhile recipient of regular playing time. He has had the platoon advantage in 82 percent of his plate appearances, but he hasn’t capitalized. He owns a .463 OPS against righties this year.
The team has indicated how it feels by carving into Bauers’ playing time with first-base opportunities for Yu Chang and Naylor. Bobby Bradley could be next, eventually. (Chang has been even less productive, for what it’s worth, with even uglier metrics. The Indians have supplied the worst first-base production, by miles, in the league.) Because of the other available options, and Bauers exhibiting few signs that a dramatic turnaround lies ahead, a change seems inevitable. After all, there were never lofty expectations for this experiment, since the primary driver for Bauers’ inclusion on the Opening Day roster was his lack of minor-league options. For those reasons, “panic” doesn’t seem like the right word here.
Panic meter: Medium/High
Amed Rosario
Slash line: .197/.265/.329
Few players are as fast as Rosario, so to capitalize on that speed, the more often he puts the ball in play, the better. He’s running the best walk rate (8.4 percent) of his career by far, and the best strikeout rate (16.9 percent) as well. He’s showing more patience at the plate, with a significantly improved chase rate.
It’s just, well, he doesn’t hit the ball with much authority. He tops it far more often than the average hitter does. And if he can’t reach base with regularity, his wheels go to waste. He finally swiped his first base Sunday.
It’s difficult to know what to make of Rosario, who has learned a new position in the last eight weeks, has joined a new league full of unfamiliar pitchers and is still only 25. His 2019 season stands out: He posted a .287/.323/.432 slash line with 15 homers and 19 stolen bases, and he insists that’s the standard he can replicate. But for a guy who debuted in the majors in 2017, that’s the only shred of evidence that suggests he can be a reliable, everyday contributor at the plate.
Rosario has always hit lefties …
2017: .297/.316/.514
2018: .284/.318/.426
2019: .311/.360/.527
2020: .316/.350/.421
2021: .278/.350/.417
Against righties, on the other hand …
2017: .234/.258/.359
2018: .247/.288/.366
2019: .280/.311/.402
2020: .209/.218/.337
2021: .125/.186/.250
The 2021 sample is the smallest of the bunch, but he’ll need to prove he’s more than a platoon player trying to learn center field on the fly.
Panic meter: Medium/High
"I've suffered a great many tragedies in my life....most of them never happened". Mark Twain