Keith Law’s farm system rankings for all 30 MLB teams
Keith Law Mar 2, 2020 245
As part of my prospect rankings, I’ve also ranked all 30 major-league teams’ farm systems here, with a brief explanation of why they’re in this order — although I think you’ll get an even clearer picture on any individual team by reading the team reports that rolled out last week (for the American League) and will roll out this week (for the National League). Bear in mind that these rankings only consider players currently in the system and eligible for the rankings, meaning they have not yet lost rookie status.
1. Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays need a strong farm system to stay competitive, given their revenue constraints and unwillingness to spend big on their major-league payroll, but they have enough depth in their system right now that they can trade from it to keep the big-league team competitive. Not only do they have the top prospect in the game, but they also have substantial pitching depth — even after trading one of their top pitching prospects — and have benefited from a recent change in draft philosophy as well as increasingly productive classes of international free agents. They’ve also done well in stocking the system with middle-infield prospects, many of whom will eventually move to other positions but at least start out with the potential to stay up the middle. The only place they’re really weak at the moment is behind the plate. The Rays may not know where they’ll be playing for the next few years, but they should be competitive for some time to come.
2. Atlanta Braves
The pipeline in Atlanta continues, even though the team has been effectively out of the international prospect market for two years now. That’s thanks to the last fruits of the previous regime’s efforts and several very productive drafts in the time since, including a 2019 draft class that already looks like it’s yielding positive results. They have depth in pitching, even with several graduations of top pitching prospects the past two years, and behind the plate, which is always valuable. They are light in the middle infield, although Braden Shewmake’s emergence as a likely long-term shortstop is a very promising development.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers’ chain of elite prospects remains unbroken, to the point where perhaps we should no longer be surprised. Corey Seager was followed by Cody Bellinger, who is now followed by Gavin Lux. Julio Urías was followed by Walker Buehler, who was followed by Dustin May, who may now be followed by Josiah Gray. They’ve drafted well, they’ve fared exceptionally well internationally, and they’ve even added some prospects in trades while still contending, a neat trick few teams pull off more than once. They even have enough catching depth to put their third-best catching prospect, Keibert Ruiz, on the trade block. The Dodgers get credit for the money they spend but not enough for the players they develop on their own.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks traded two major-league stars for a total of seven prospects, but those deals have little to do with their ranking here, with two already graduated and only one of the other five in the team’s top 10. It’s about everything else: very productive drafts, goosed by some extra picks and a little good fortune (e.g., the No. 4 player on my 2019 board, Corbin Carroll, getting to them at pick 16), and some strong early returns on international classes, including a payoff on an early, aggressive effort in the Bahamas. They’re even here despite trading their No. 1 prospect at the time, Jazz Chisholm, to Miami in July.
5. San Diego Padres
The No. 1 system in my rankings the past two years took a few hits in 2019, from the graduations of the top prospect in baseball last winter (Fernando Tatis Jr.) and five others from its top 20 to the trade of top 100 overall prospect Xavier Edwards this winter for Tommy Pham and Jake Cronenworth. The Padres have also seen a few guys stall in their progress, or at least hit some obstacles as they’ve reached High A or Double A, while the pipeline behind them isn’t quite as productive as it was right after 2016, when they spent over $70 million in bonuses and penalties in the international market. They do still boast the minors’ top pitching prospect and substantial pitching depth, as well as a large class of highly athletic position players all across the diamond who look like they could fill out most of a lineup in two to three years.
6. New York Yankees
The Yankees have clearly figured out some things on the development side, especially finding ways to help pitchers throw harder or throw higher-quality pitches (like boosting spin rates), and have also stayed active on the international side. Their Latin American contingent helmed one of the most lauded groups of short-season prospects I found during the process of assembling these rankings, with teams already asking for some of their GCL kids in trade talks. They’ve also got pitching coming, headlined by a risky first-round pick who’s worked out extremely well so far in Clarke Schmidt.
7. Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays system remains in the top 10 thanks to a little of everything. Their past two drafts, in particular, look very strong. Their international scouting department has added some of the highest-ceiling prospects they’ve had since before I worked there. They added two more of their top-10 prospects in the Marcus Stroman trade. And they’re developing well, with their top two prospects improving since they entered the Toronto system.
8. Miami Marlins
I think this is the highest I’ve ever ranked the Marlins, who were generally busy trading away salaries or skipping Latin America and then rushing the few prospects they did have to the majors. Now they’re adding talent everywhere they can and importing some of the development ideas their core baseball group brought over from the Yankees system. There’s a lot of ceiling here, and thus a lot of risk, but for the first time in more than a decade there are some possible star position players on the way.
Dylan Carlson (Joe Robbins / Getty Images)
9. St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals just keep doing it, even with a complete washout draft in 2017 and misses on their first picks in 2015 and 2016. Their evaluation of Dylan Carlson appears to have been well ahead of everyone else’s, they keep finding and/or creating catchers, and they’ve been shrewd about adding prospects in selected trades to balance out some of the other prospects they’ve traded away. They’re light in the middle infield, but that catching strength, even after trading away Carson Kelly, is a Very Good Thing™.
10. San Francisco Giants
I feel like the whole exceeds the sum of the parts here; each individual Giants prospect of note has some significant risk of low or no return, but if you add them all up, there’s more than enough upside to start to feel optimistic about the Giants’ long-term future. The short term might be bleak as very little help is on the immediate horizon from the farm, but their crop of hitting prospects aged 20 and below is extremely strong and brings a lot of ceiling on one or both sides of the ball.
11. Seattle Mariners
This is not a typo: Seattle’s farm system is actually … good. Someone should check on Jerry DiPoto, who hasn’t traded a prospect away in several weeks now. They’ve also drafted better in recent years, and their two big signings in the July 2 market in 2017, Julio Rodriguez and Noelvi Marte, look like successes so far, ending a long drought of prospects from Latin America going back to Félix Hernández.
12. Kansas City Royals
Pitching they’ve got, thanks to a bumper crop of college pitchers selected in 2018 that should start to impact the major-league roster this year. The position player group lags well behind, with some very talented players in the system who have not converted their physical gifts into production yet, led by the troika of high-profile hitters — Nick Pratto, MJ Melendez and Seuly Matias — who struggled in High-A Wilmington last year, even as the parade of future rotation regulars passed through Delaware (paying a $4 toll).
13. Chicago White Sox
It’s the same story each year for the White Sox — their system has a small group of very high-profile prospects, several of whom are about to alter the big-league roster permanently, but the depth trails off quickly after the top 10. They deserve credit for diving into the high school pitching market again with their picks of Andrew Dalquist and Matt Thompson, the former a more advanced pitcher with less ceiling, the latter a high-ceiling guy who’s less advanced as a pitcher.
14. Pittsburgh Pirates
For all that went wrong in Pittsburgh the past few years — some of which is blamed on the previous regime but wasn’t their fault at all — Ben Cherington and company inherited a decent farm system, with a lot of athletes among their pitchers and position players who may just need different approaches to reach their ceilings.
The Twins’ Alex Kirilloff (David Dermer / USA Today)
15. Minnesota Twins
The Twins system as a whole had a down year in 2019, with some of the highest-profile players taking steps back or just failing to advance, but there is still enough depth, especially hard-throwing arms, to keep them around the middle of the pack. I’d like to see more up-the-middle impact to get them into the top tier, although that is harder to do when the major-league team is this good and you draft near the end of the first round.
16. New York Mets
They traded four of their top 10 prospects in the last year, and they’re still right around the midpoint of the list, thanks to still-productive drafts and a flow of seven-figure signings from Latin America who’ve come into pro ball and, by and large, produced right away. I can understand Met fans’ concerns that their elite prospects will be traded for short-term help in the majors, but there’s enough in the second tier of guys — after Ronny Mauricio and Francisco Alvarez and the 2019 draftees — to help patch the roster in July as needed.
17. Texas Rangers
Texas has a lot of guys you’d like to have, but perhaps not a lot of guys you’d go out of your way to trade for, although they certainly have some players in Category 1 who might get to Category 2. They tried some things on the pitching side that have not worked out, with a rash of Tommy John surgeries in the past year-plus that stands out even in an industry that seems to treat them like they’re paper cuts. There’s a lot of untapped athleticism in the system as well.
18. L.A. Angels
Jo Adell’s a stud, Brandon Marsh might be, too, but many of the other players with upside in this system took steps back last year or were hurt, and then the Angels traded away their first-rounder to clear Zack Cozart’s salary, so the system as a whole is in worse shape relative to their competitors than it was a year ago. It’s also really young – everyone’s system is young, of course, but this one seems especially so, with only one prospect drafted from college in their top 20.
19. Detroit Tigers
The most top-heavy system in baseball, the Tigers’ farm boasts three elite pitching prospects and a very high-upside outfielder, then drops off extremely quickly before we’re even out of the top 10. They’ve added some bulk with trades, both on the pitching side and with position players, while their top prospect signed by the Tigers on the July 2 front is only No. 15 in their system.
20. Colorado Rockies
Four of their most notable position-player prospects had down seasons in 2019, and their pitching depth is probably as thin as it’s been in several years. Their 2019 draft was college-heavy, but they rolled the dice on some upside after the first round, which should give Rockies fans hope the system will look stronger a year from now.
21. Cleveland
Cleveland’s full-season clubs were very light on potential regulars, but its short-season teams, down to the AZL, were loaded with talented position players signed as international free agents. The list of potential starters among the prospects is quite short, however, after a few years of producing not just impact starters but also quality back-end guys like Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale.
Alec Bohm (Brace Hemmelgarn / Minnesota Twins / Getty Images)
22. Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies have made some quixotic decisions on the development front — pushing very young, often physically immature players to full-season ball, then starting college products like Alec Bohm and Spencer Howard in Low A — that seem to have held back their system as a whole despite better drafts the past 2-3 years and continually productive international classes.
23. Cincinnati Reds
This system might have been a lot higher had the Reds not traded three of their top five prospects in the past year-plus or tinkered with some prospects’ swings to try to get to more power. They’ve drafted quite well as long as you remember the players they’ve traded, but there isn’t a lot left here that can help the big-league team this season.
24. Baltimore Orioles
It’s still early in the rebuild and the Orioles’ first draft under Mike Elias was fine, but not a blockbuster. There’s some back-end pitching depth here behind the big two starter prospects, DL Hall and Grayson Rodriguez, and a few position players in the low levels who have upside beyond what they’ve shown so far. This team needs more total bulk in the system and to get active in Latin America again.
25. Boston Red Sox
Trades, promotions, and low draft picks have caught up with the Red Sox, whose major-league need for pitching won’t be satisfied by the fruits of the farm any time soon. Their top two pitching prospects have big questions — one is just coming back from Tommy John, the other may have to go spend a few years on a submarine — and beyond them it’s back-end starters or, more often, starters who project as relievers due to deliveries or lack of a third pitch.
26. Oakland A’s
Oakland has found value in a lot of unexpected places, from later draft picks or selections of unconventional players to buy-low opportunities in trades, but they’ve had worse luck when the opportunity costs were higher: drafting Kyler Murray only to see him choose football, drafting Austin Beck and Richie Martin in the first round, handing Lazarito $3 million to strike out 221 times last year. That means the system has a lot of guys who’ll play in the big leagues but not a lot of guys who will be impact big leaguers.
27. Houston Astros
It’s funny, but when you get rid of all of your amateur scouts, your drafts get a whole lot worse. If it weren’t for the work of the international scouting department, helmed by Oz Ocampo (now with Pittsburgh), this would absolutely be the bottom system in the majors.
28. Chicago Cubs
The Cubs’ drafts have just been fair the past few years, and they’ve fared especially poorly when they reversed course and tried to draft pitching high rather than going for the certainty of position players. Yet their system is still mostly guys they drafted with just a smattering of prospects from Latin America. There are a few names here who could pop in 2020, but I think we say that about the Cubs every year.
29. Washington Nationals
You don’t care, right, Nats fans? You got a ring! That’s what the farm is for, and Mike Rizzo and company worked the heck out of their system to get to that World Series. They’ve traded a lot of prospects, two of whom look like they’ll hurt (Lucas Giolito and Jesús Luzardo), but they have a world championship to show for it. That’s good, because it gets thin very quickly here, most notably on the pitching front.
30. Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers have traded or promoted so much talent the past few years that a couple of misses on early draft picks are much more noticeable; they were the only team that came close to failing to place a prospect on my top 100 this year, and they were the hardest team to write up with my self-imposed minimum of 20 prospects per team, saved largely by some high-upside players signed in the past three years out of Latin America. This was a choice, to some extent — the major-league team came within one win of a World Series and continues to contend, at the cost of the long-term value of the farm system.
(Photos in top graphic: Getty Images)
Re: Just Baseball: Major League teams OTHER THAN the Tribe
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