Cavaliers Roster Analysis: Cap space, draft picks and 2019 free-agency outlook


By Danny Leroux Oct 11, 2018 6

The​ new season​ is almost​ upon us and that​ creates fascinating new​ storylines, debates and​ dynamics​ for all​ 30 NBA teams.​​ Salary cap/CBA expert Danny Leroux is breaking down the key questions each franchise faces this season with an eye toward the intriguing 2019 offseason, including information on the Cavs’ cap space, free agents and outlook.

Cleveland will end up being a fascinating test case for the importance of LeBron James as they largely kept the rest of the team together after his departure. While eighth overall pick Collin Sexton will be an important part of the rotation and the team’s future, most of their other departures and additions will be more on the margins, especially after Rodney Hood decided to sign his $3.5 million qualifying offer to become an unrestricted free agent next summer.

In fact, general manager Kobe Altman’s biggest move by far was retaining a player rather than an addition when the team agreed to an extension with Kevin Love adding four years and $120 million to his contract. Love’s season will play a major part in determining where the Cavs fit in the Eastern Conference now and moving forward as the franchise defines itself in a new era. Cleveland is a rarity in 2019 as a team that could push to clear cap space but may benefit from holding off, depending on how their veterans fare this year and their place in the trade and free-agency markets next summer.

Projected Cap Space: None – $24 million

2019 Draft Picks: Own first if 1-10

Potential Free Agents: Larry Nance Jr. (Restricted), George Hill (Partial Guarantee), JR Smith (Partial Guarantee), Kyle Korver (Partial Guarantee), Rodney Hood (Unrestricted), David Nwaba (Restricted), Sam Dekker (Restricted), Channing Frye (Unrestricted)

Extension-Eligible Players: Larry Nance Jr., JR Smith, Tristan Thompson, Jordan Clarkson, Sam Dekker

2019 Power Index: Very limited other than the possibility of taking on salary in a few different ways. The current Collective Bargaining Agreement fixed the loophole that previously allowed teams to use lightly protected contracts to take on larger obligations, which would have been very useful for Cleveland in 2019-20 with George Hill, JR Smith and Kyle Korver all having partial guarantees for that season (Note/correction: While the new rules limit the traded salary calculations for Hill and Korver, Smith signed under the previous CBA so Cleveland can use that process for his contract). Even so, Cleveland can create usable cap space by letting go of their veterans even if they retain Larry Nance Jr. and/or Hood. The front office could use that $16-24 million to sign free agents, take on bad salary or some combination of the two. Alternatively, management could extract assets by moving then-expiring contracts like Tristan Thompson and Jordan Clarkson for longer deals since some teams will use next July to line up their 2020 cap space. At this point, the Cavs’ contract structure lends itself to the team making more of a splash in 2020 than 2019 after locking up Kevin Love but they have an underappreciated amount of flexibility that could prove useful if Altman is ready for a bigger overhaul sooner than expected.

1. Does this group prove they are worth keeping together?

One of the most fascinating decisions in the entire NBA this summer was Altman largely keeping the Cavs’ roster together even after James announced he was taking his talents to Los Angeles. Cleveland has a collection of talented players, but the group makes substantially more sense with an offensive linchpin like James unless Hill and Love successfully reprise larger roles from earlier in their careers.

Last season’s massive trade deadline deals proved necessary for their push to the Finals as numerous players battled through worse than expected seasons, especially Thompson and Smith. Cleveland has alternatives for both players but not a ton of wiggle room in terms of record if it takes some time to figure out the optimal rotation. If the Cavs fail to stick in the playoff picture, the front office will face some challenging decisions because so many contributors still have multiple years left on their contracts and eating partially guaranteed money for 2019-20 does not appear likely to create much usable cap space other than in larger overhaul scenarios. This season itself will likely dictate the 2019 offseason, raising the stakes for the players and management alike.

2. Can Colin Sexton establish himself as the point guard of the future?

This year’s eighth overall pick is the last significant remaining piece from the Kyrie Irving trade and will step into those shoes as Cleveland’s eventual lead guard. The Cavs can afford to be patient with him thanks to Hill’s place in the rotation, which is useful because teenage point guards almost always take time to develop in the NBA and growing pains in an even larger role would diminish their chances of making the postseason.

Even if he plays more of a rotation role early on, Sexton’s development will be crucial for the team’s future because he will help determine the timeline for both playoff viability and eventual contention. No rookie year is conclusive, but it will be an important data point as the front office determines their 2019 approach while also shifting the priorities for Cleveland’s first-round pick should they retain it since Sexton and Love are the most significant long-term pieces on the roster at the moment.

3. Will Kevin Love live up to his extension?

It may be strange to think of Sexton and Love as Cleveland’s key players because they are almost 10 years apart in age but they are the only two Cavaliers other than Ante Zizic currently under contract beyond 2019-20. Altman’s decision to give Love four seasons and $120 million this summer as opposed to waiting and either agreeing later in the season or rolling the dice with his player option and possibly free agency will affect the franchise for a while for better or worse. It is worth noting that a consistently rising salary cap will make Love’s $30 million per season age better but 2018-19 will tell us a lot about how that contract will look down the line.

Love’s last season as a high-usage player was almost five years ago in Minnesota but he still has the skill set to make it work, especially if Cleveland can effectively space the floor around him to limit opponents’ ability to help. Another key question will be how he fits in defensively because the Cavs will be in trouble without a top-five offense keeping them afloat like they had last season. Thompson and Nance will be important too, but Love will need to play some center and hold his own in other matchups to justify his contract and keep Cleveland competitive.

The national media is picking the Cavs to finish in the vicinity of last place in the Central. Beat writer for the PD says they'll go 37-45, 6.5 more wins than the Las Vegas over/under guess. When 37 is optimism we know this will be a long year. Of course the real issue for the team is which of the younger guys - especially Sexton -- can develop into something approach stars, or at least NBA regulars.

Despite the effort to keep the team intact and stay competitive, the Las Vegas line is pretty realistic.

Yes, they re-signed Kevin Love, but also that contract may just make him a better trade asset too. If the team tanks, he and the other vets will and should be dealt for future assets.

To be honest this team will be more fun to watch. They will be a scrappy team.

To me personally much better to watch than a team that stands around and watches one guy pound the air out of the ball.

rusty2 wrote:To be honest this team will be more fun to watch. They will be a scrappy team.

I agree here rusty. To me, it was just that they were unmotivated. They were simply (old guys) going through the motions waiting for the postseason. Not good entertainment at all.

And unfortunately the whole Eastern Conference did the same boring march knowing that they had to mount an (unsuccessful) effort in the postseason and that ultimately their regular season wouldn't matter.

Lebron's move to L.A. makes the entire Eastern Conference so much more fun to follow this year. It's back on and there's good talent and teams to watch.

And I know you realize this - Boston is probably a far better team than the Cavs WITH Lebron would have been. The Celtics and possibly others will have a much better shot at the Warriors too then one dimensional Cavs would have.

Lebron will also add intrigue to the West this year. It's a large gain for the "watchability" of the NBA this season.

Especially the East of course.

This is just me, but it's time for LA to deal with the circus of Lebron. Cavs got their ring. Now get to the business of going after future sustainable success.

Ok Cavs fans - turn out the lights.

When you get crushed by Atlanta, arguably the worst team in the NBA, it foreshadows a very, very tough season ahead.

Rusty said this will be a scrappy team. The s is silent.

Nice ! Give it a chance......

Rusty's right: I saw a story about how long it took LeBron's team to start winning regularly with him at each shift he's made in his career. So it's not inappropriate to expect this new Lebron-less Cavs team to take awhile to adjust. That said, the only range of possible outcomes for the New Cavs is between a low of Quite Poor to a high of Not All That Bad with a marginal chance to reach the playoffs.
Sexton is off to a rather ugly start and the 2nd quarter bunch has been overall atrocious. Plenty of room for improvement and an opportunity for Lue to show how he can teach.

I wish it were able to call this a "young team" since that would imply lots of opportunity to develop. 5 are over 30. Sexton is 19! so a little patience in order for him. Osman is good looking young guy at 23 and Zizic is interesting 21 year old. Dekker 24. Nance and Hood and Nwaba 25. Clarkson 26.

Is that a "young team" by NBA standards?

Well I took a look at the 76ers roster and led by Embiid at 24 and Fultz 20 they have only 3 30 and overs; a 19 year old; 2 at 20; 2 at 21; 3 22 year olds; 3 more 24 year olds. Make the Cavs look a bunch of old men.

I think the Cavs have a team that could contend for a playoff spot. At least I thought they did until I saw them play defense this year. Or not play I should say.

But in the NBA the absolute worst place to be is one of the last playoff spots or just out. No shot at title, little shot at star to take team to next level in draft.

They should trade away the vets as soon as they can and start the rebuild already.

And I don't disagree with Rusty. A team with Osman, Sexton, Zizic, Clarkson, Nance, Hood could be an entertaining young team to watch until they turn it around. Gotta give it some time to gel. A lot of major changes. They'll lose but could be a fun losing, if that makes any sense.

sure it makes sense, if they run and score and lose 130-127 it could be entertaining especially if those half dozen younger guys get better as the year goes along.

They really need to trade K Love at the trade deadline if anyone offers any decent player at any position.

I am hoping they signed him to keep him happy until they trade him.

Hill, JR, Korver and Frye will all be gone before next year making this a much younger team.

Hill, JR, Korver and Frye: probably no return for any of them? then again I find NBA trade and financial rules baffling so acquiring expiring contract and [something] exceptions are valuable I gather

civ ollilavad wrote:Hill, JR, Korver and Frye: probably no return for any of them? then again I find NBA trade and financial rules baffling so acquiring expiring contract and [something] exceptions are valuable I gather

civ - interestingly I head David Griffin say on tv that Korver was Lebron's informal "shooting coach" on the Cavs. He said Lebron super respects a fellow player who is a proven professional shooter and Korver would work mechanics with him.

Trade him to the Lakers for a 2nd rounder? Lol, best I can do but youi are right the others are worthless. Worse then that they'd have to pay someone (in draft picks) to take them off your hands. It happens, often.