Cleveland Indians are on six-game losing streak and have fans grumbling to themselves -- Terry Pluto
CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Talking to myself about the Tribe as the month of April ends with an 11-17 record.
Question: I know 11-17 is bad, but didn't the Indians have a slow start last April?
Answer: They did. They were 11-13 in April, but …
Q: But what?
A: But after 28 games a year ago, they weren't 11-17 as they are today.
Q: OK, what was the record?
A: It was 14-14.
Q: Not that much of a difference.
A: It was a BIG difference. They lost to the Twins in their 28th game of the season, making them 14-14. But that ended a six-game winning streak. The next day, they started another streak where they won 7-of-8.
Q: Oh…
A: At this point a year ago, the Indians were putting it together.
Q: So are you worried?
A: Yes. Because the Indians are playing bad baseball. It's not just the six-game West Coast losing streak. It's leading the American League in errors. And it's also being the worst team in the league in defensive efficiency, which takes into account things such as range, arm strength and other factors besides errors. They have made 10 errors in the last 10 games.
Q: Were the Indians a good defensive team last season?
A: Not really. But they weren't dreadful. They were 10th of 15 teams in errors. They ranked 12th in defensive efficiency.
Q: What's with Nick Swisher?
A: Nick, catch the ball! He ranks dead last among all first basemen no matter what numbers you use -- errors, efficiency, etc. And it's a major decline. A year ago, http://www.fangraphs.com ranked Swisher No. 4 overall among American League first basemen. The same rating has him at the bottom this season. Jason Kipnis is also ranked last among starting AL second basemen, compared to being 11th a year ago. I thought those stats in 2013 were hard on Kipnis. But not this year. The only reason he hasn't seemed worse at second base is that Swisher has been so awful at first.
Q: What's with Yan Gomes?
A: You can be sure that Terry Francona is asking the same thing. Gomes has thrown out 6-of-22 base runners, one of the best percentages in baseball. But he has seven errors. SEVEN! He had only three last season.
Q: Why are you so fixated on the defense?
A: Because when you have a team where your catcher, your first baseman and your second baseman lead the league in errors -- you lose. And Carlos Santana has only one error at third. He has not been a problem … at least not in the field.
Q: OK, the defense stinks, what else?
A: I'm not done yet. These same guys who were either decent or mediocre have fallen apart. They just need to catch the stupid ball and then throw it like a Major Leaguer. They know what to do.
Q: Enough on the defense already …
A: Last year, they ranked No. 9 in allowing unearned runs. This year, it's 12th. Those errors extend innings, wear out pitchers, lose games.
Q: Are you done?
A: Yes … Do you know the Indians have had only two starters win games this season?
Q: Really?
A: Yes, Zach McAllister and Corey Kluber are a combined 5-5. The rest of the rotation (Justin Masterson, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar) is 0-8.
Q: Didn't they take Carrasco out of the rotation?
A: Yes. A bad idea is a bad idea, and trying it again with Carrasco (0-3, 6.46) in the rotation was a bad idea. And that's not a second guess. Most fans believe he was best in the bullpen. That's especially true because they have two alternatives at Class AAA. Josh Tomlin is 1-1 with a 2.77 ERA. He threw eight scoreless innings in his last start. Trevor Bauer is 3-0 with a 1.40 ERA. Take your pick.
Q: So the rotation ...
A: Has to be fixed. The starters are 5-13 with a 4.82 ERA. A year ago, the starters had a 3.92 ERA. Masterson was on his way to an All-Star season. Scott Kazmir was 0-1 with an 8.64 ERA in April, but he was coming off the disabled list. They had just taken Brett Myers (0-3, 8.02) out of the rotation and replaced him with Kluber. But in May, Kazmir (3-1, 4.22 ERA) was getting healthy, Ubaldo Jimenez was 2-1 with a 4.23 ERA in May. It was rounding into form.
Q: Can that happen this season?
A: It can. Salazar was better in his last outing. Tomlin and Bauer can help the rotation. Kluber and Masterson are capable. I really like Kluber. There is concern about Masterson (0-1, 4.84 ERA).
Q: Should they have signed Kazmir?
A: He's 4-0 with a 2.11 ERA for Oakland. The Tribe had questions about his durability. If he stays healthy, he's impressive. Ubaldo Jimenez (0-5, 6.59) misses pitching coaching Mickey Callaway. Baltimore has to wonder about that $50 million given to Jimenez.
Q: Should they have kept Aaron Harang?
A: We'll see. He's 3-2 with a 2.97 ERA with Atlanta. He was shelled for nine runs in his last start. As much as they were hurt by passing on Harang, they made a mistake with Carrasco in the rotation when Tomlin was a very strong rotation alternative based on how he pitched in spring training.
Q: How about the bullpen?
A: It's been terrific. The relievers have a 3.24 ERA. That includes Vinnie Pestano and Blake Wood, who allowed nine runs in nine innings before being sent to Columbus. John Axford is 8-of-9 in saves. Yes, they've had a few burps in tight games -- but not many.
Q: Will you finally talk about the hitting?
A: What hitting?
Q: That's your answer?
A: They are 13th in batting average, 11th in runs scored. A year ago, they ranked No. 4 in runs scored.
Q: So what's the problem?
A: Almost everything. But I'll start with something not often mentioned. A year ago, the Indians were 36-20 vs. lefties. They batted .271. They had players such as Ryan Raburn (.308), Gomes (.327), Kipnis (.308), Santana (.299) and Swisher (.295) who hit lefties.
Q: This year?
A: They are 3-8 vs. lefties, batting .207. This is like 2012, when the Indians were 18-35 vs. lefties and batted .234 (worst in the American League). It's not all the fault of Ryan Raburn, but he's batting .164 this season. Let's hope it's not a return to 2012 for him, when he hit .171 for the Tigers. It's just bad: Gomes (.194), Kipnis (.189), Santana (.132), Swisher (.171).
Ryan Raburn during batting practice.Ryan Raburn is in an 0-of-22 slump.Chuck Crow / The Plain Dealer
Q: Why focus on Raburn?
A: A year ago, Francona could juggle his bench with Raburn, Gomes, Mike Aviles and Drew Stubbs playing against lefties. Their .271 team batting average was tops in the AL against lefties.
Q: Should they have kept Stubbs?
A: I always liked Stubbs, but he's hitting .255 with a homer and three RBI for Colorado. They replaced him with David Murphy. He's a notorious slow starter (career .238 April average), but he's hitting .282 (.795 OPS) with 18 RBI in 26 games. He's supposed to platoon with Raburn in right field. Murphy is at .308 vs. righties, and a very respectable .270 vs. lefties. He has been an excellent pickup.
Q: What can the Indians do?
A: If Kipnis (abdominal strain) needs to go on the disabled list, they can call up Jose Ramirez (.319 with 4 HR) from Columbus. He's one of my favorite prospects. He's only 21, and is an excellent fielder. He also has eight stolen bases. Jesus Aguilar (.356, 7 HR) is hot at Columbus. But really, it comes down to the guys who are here -- the guys who produced a year ago.
Q: Like who?
A: Almost everyone: Swisher (.211, .617 OPS), Santana (.151, .593 OPS), Asdrubal Cabrera (.220, .627 OPS), Kipnis (.234, .748 OPS), Raburn (.164, .398 OPS). Even Michael Brantley (.255, .756 OPS) can play better. Michael Bourn (.263, .651 OPS) needs to produce more, especially with only three walks as a leadoff man. Other than Lonnie Chisenhall (.362, .901 OPS) and Murphy, no hitter has exceeded expectations.
Q: So what happens?
A: This is a huge challenge for Francona. A year ago, he pulled the team out of several slumps. They had losing streaks of eight games (once), six games (once) and five games (three times). In early June, they lost eight in a row and fell to 30-33. After that, they were 62-37. So it's far too early to write them off. But it's also time to realize that last year is gone, and this season can slip away fast unless things change quickly.
Re: Articles
4577Second Thoughts Game #30: White Sox 0, Indians 2
Jose Ramirez is congratulated after scoring the Indians second, and final, run of the game. (Photo: AP)By John Grimm
May 4, 2014
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The Indians' bullpen has rarely in recent memory been so stable as to inspire any serious confidence. With Axford at the back end of the bullpen, confidence remains occasionally elusive - but given the contours of his breaking ball, it's a heck of a show to watch.
Beyond Axford, however, aesthetics were quite difficult to come by in Saturday's 2-0 game. Outfield range proved elusive, scarce was infield defense: barring Lonnie Chisenhall's opposite-field double, every single one of Cleveland's eight baserunners would have reached on either an error, HBP, walk, or single - the team had only a singular extra base on the day.
Yet two exceptions arose from this otherwise painful Saturday game.
The J-Ram Rises
The fifth inning of Saturday's game was far and away its most tumultuous. With the bases loaded and one out in the top of the fifth, it took an unassisted double play by Nick Swisher to send an altogether quite lucky Indians club to the bottom of the fifth - wherein Jose Ramirez proceeded to lay down a bunt.
The author does not necessarily oppose bunts. Sacrifice bunts, certainly, are nothing if not tools of vice and sin; however, when dropped by batters such as Ramirez or Bourn, bunts with the intent of singling are quite effective. And on Saturday, we saw the excitement that we might expect Jose Ramirez to bring. Upon dropping a bunt, Flowers made a throw that would have been a close play were it on line - but ended up as an error. Joseph A. Bunts came to the plate with the intent of receiving one base, but he received a second free. It was Ramirez who, later in the inning, then proceeded to score the second and final run of the game. Were Masterson and the bullpen less on-point, that run by Ramirez likely would have proven decisive.
In the aftermath of the Kipnis injury, Jose Ramirez's ascent was the only reasonable choice - yet it's far from assured that Ramirez is merely a depth option. While his power is far outstripped by that of Kipnis, Ramirez remains a wholly intriguing option by virtue of his speed and contact ability. Upon Kipnis's return, Ramirez will likely return to AAA - but the impression he makes in his stint in the big leagues is paramount in determining the fate of a second baseman in an organization with genuinely impressive organizational depth in the middle infield.
In sum, while it's unclear whether Jose Ramirez is the Second Baseman of the Future or the Second Baseman of All Spacetime, he shall surely make the next three to five weeks a pleasant month in the field - not that there's anything wrong with the -25.3 UZR/150 at second base that Jason Kipnis has 'showcased,' (note: there are indeed a great many things wrong with a -25.3 UZR/150) but Jose Ramirez injected a genuine fire into the Cleveland Indians when he debuted in September 2013 as a pinch-running 20-year-old. Kipnis may be a perennial fringe all-star candidate, but for now, the show belongs to Jose Ramirez. Sit back and enjoy.
Please: Any Adjective Other Than Masterful
To call Justin Masterson an 'effective' groundball pitcher is to vastly undersell his divet-creation competency. On Saturday, 61.1% of the balls put in play against Masterson were groundballs, a rate that would have been second among all qualified pitchers' Ground Ball rates. Saturday's performance was a decrease from his previous season average of 62.1%, behind the entirely puzzling Astros starter Dallas Keuchel.
Masterson's career to this point has been an enigma surrounded by Foucault's prose - it's never made sense if one had the patience to try to decipher it. Masterson has struggled with his walk rate (2012-14) and his strikeout rate (2010-12), but there's never been any clear and consistent strength or weakness - beyond his consistently excellent Ground Ball rate. Thus far in 2014, he is 2nd in Ground Ball rate - in 2013, he was first in the majors, and in 2012, 6th. Induction of ground balls has been Masterson's guiding strength.
Unfortunate, then, that Masterson is condemned to stand on the mound, while statues in the form of Jason Kipnis and Asdrubal Cabrera stare stoically at the plate.
On Saturday, Masterson had, in fact, rather good BABIP luck, with balls in play allowing baserunners only at a .222 rate - substantially better than both the league average of .298 and Masterson's 2014 average of .333. On a night when Masterson struck out very few opposing batters - only 6 over 7.1 IP - his favorable BABIP was necessary to hold the lead for an offense that eked out but two runs against a White Sox pitching staff and defense that struck out no Tribe batsmen and surrendered baserunners via the error at even the most unlikely of turns.
It appeared, on the aggregate, that Masterson's good BABIP fortune on Saturday merely was good fortune - weak contact, balls hit directly at Lonnie and Asdrubal, for instance - but it's equally possible that the continued presence of Jose Ramirez at the keystone, in the upcoming weeks, may help ensure that Masterson's elite Ground Ball rates are not wasted in front of an infield that is incapable of fielding for him.
The logical extension of this, of course, is that the Indians should then proceed to call up Francisco Lindor to help. Not that calling up a AA batter is inherently a no-doubt move - however, writers more qualified than the present author have made the argument. The author can hardly object on grounds of team efficacy.
And if calling up Lindor were to hypothetically improve the aesthetics of Indians' games - all the better.
John can be reached on Twitter at @JHGrimm.
May 4, 2014
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The Indians' bullpen has rarely in recent memory been so stable as to inspire any serious confidence. With Axford at the back end of the bullpen, confidence remains occasionally elusive - but given the contours of his breaking ball, it's a heck of a show to watch.
Beyond Axford, however, aesthetics were quite difficult to come by in Saturday's 2-0 game. Outfield range proved elusive, scarce was infield defense: barring Lonnie Chisenhall's opposite-field double, every single one of Cleveland's eight baserunners would have reached on either an error, HBP, walk, or single - the team had only a singular extra base on the day.
Yet two exceptions arose from this otherwise painful Saturday game.
The J-Ram Rises
The fifth inning of Saturday's game was far and away its most tumultuous. With the bases loaded and one out in the top of the fifth, it took an unassisted double play by Nick Swisher to send an altogether quite lucky Indians club to the bottom of the fifth - wherein Jose Ramirez proceeded to lay down a bunt.
The author does not necessarily oppose bunts. Sacrifice bunts, certainly, are nothing if not tools of vice and sin; however, when dropped by batters such as Ramirez or Bourn, bunts with the intent of singling are quite effective. And on Saturday, we saw the excitement that we might expect Jose Ramirez to bring. Upon dropping a bunt, Flowers made a throw that would have been a close play were it on line - but ended up as an error. Joseph A. Bunts came to the plate with the intent of receiving one base, but he received a second free. It was Ramirez who, later in the inning, then proceeded to score the second and final run of the game. Were Masterson and the bullpen less on-point, that run by Ramirez likely would have proven decisive.
In the aftermath of the Kipnis injury, Jose Ramirez's ascent was the only reasonable choice - yet it's far from assured that Ramirez is merely a depth option. While his power is far outstripped by that of Kipnis, Ramirez remains a wholly intriguing option by virtue of his speed and contact ability. Upon Kipnis's return, Ramirez will likely return to AAA - but the impression he makes in his stint in the big leagues is paramount in determining the fate of a second baseman in an organization with genuinely impressive organizational depth in the middle infield.
In sum, while it's unclear whether Jose Ramirez is the Second Baseman of the Future or the Second Baseman of All Spacetime, he shall surely make the next three to five weeks a pleasant month in the field - not that there's anything wrong with the -25.3 UZR/150 at second base that Jason Kipnis has 'showcased,' (note: there are indeed a great many things wrong with a -25.3 UZR/150) but Jose Ramirez injected a genuine fire into the Cleveland Indians when he debuted in September 2013 as a pinch-running 20-year-old. Kipnis may be a perennial fringe all-star candidate, but for now, the show belongs to Jose Ramirez. Sit back and enjoy.
Please: Any Adjective Other Than Masterful
To call Justin Masterson an 'effective' groundball pitcher is to vastly undersell his divet-creation competency. On Saturday, 61.1% of the balls put in play against Masterson were groundballs, a rate that would have been second among all qualified pitchers' Ground Ball rates. Saturday's performance was a decrease from his previous season average of 62.1%, behind the entirely puzzling Astros starter Dallas Keuchel.
Masterson's career to this point has been an enigma surrounded by Foucault's prose - it's never made sense if one had the patience to try to decipher it. Masterson has struggled with his walk rate (2012-14) and his strikeout rate (2010-12), but there's never been any clear and consistent strength or weakness - beyond his consistently excellent Ground Ball rate. Thus far in 2014, he is 2nd in Ground Ball rate - in 2013, he was first in the majors, and in 2012, 6th. Induction of ground balls has been Masterson's guiding strength.
Unfortunate, then, that Masterson is condemned to stand on the mound, while statues in the form of Jason Kipnis and Asdrubal Cabrera stare stoically at the plate.
On Saturday, Masterson had, in fact, rather good BABIP luck, with balls in play allowing baserunners only at a .222 rate - substantially better than both the league average of .298 and Masterson's 2014 average of .333. On a night when Masterson struck out very few opposing batters - only 6 over 7.1 IP - his favorable BABIP was necessary to hold the lead for an offense that eked out but two runs against a White Sox pitching staff and defense that struck out no Tribe batsmen and surrendered baserunners via the error at even the most unlikely of turns.
It appeared, on the aggregate, that Masterson's good BABIP fortune on Saturday merely was good fortune - weak contact, balls hit directly at Lonnie and Asdrubal, for instance - but it's equally possible that the continued presence of Jose Ramirez at the keystone, in the upcoming weeks, may help ensure that Masterson's elite Ground Ball rates are not wasted in front of an infield that is incapable of fielding for him.
The logical extension of this, of course, is that the Indians should then proceed to call up Francisco Lindor to help. Not that calling up a AA batter is inherently a no-doubt move - however, writers more qualified than the present author have made the argument. The author can hardly object on grounds of team efficacy.
And if calling up Lindor were to hypothetically improve the aesthetics of Indians' games - all the better.
John can be reached on Twitter at @JHGrimm.
“Every day is a new opportunity. You can build on yesterday's success or put its failures behind and start over again. That's the way life is, with a new game every day, and that's the way baseball is.”
-- Bob Feller
-- Bob Feller
Re: Articles
4578I don't expect Ramirez to play like an all star, but I do expect him to play steady and make the routine plays. If he puts up stats that he did in Akron last year, that would be great.
“Every day is a new opportunity. You can build on yesterday's success or put its failures behind and start over again. That's the way life is, with a new game every day, and that's the way baseball is.”
-- Bob Feller
-- Bob Feller
Re: Articles
4580Message to Terry Pluto:
Maybe it's not that big a deal if you talk to yourself, but to do it so publicly?
Maybe it's not that big a deal if you talk to yourself, but to do it so publicly?
Re: Articles
4581Jason Giambi lands on the DL with a calf strain, Yan Gomes returns: Terry Francona quick hits
CLEVELAND, Ohio -- The Indians placed 43-year-old designated hitter Jason Giambi on the 15-day disabled list on Monday. Giambi exited Saturday's affair with a right calf strain.
Giambi's relocation to the DL cleared a spot for catcher Yan Gomes to return from the paternity list. Gomes missed two games following the birth of his daughter, Brooklyn Mae.
Here are other news and notes stemming from manager Terry Francona's meeting with the media on Monday afternoon.
Josh Tomlin will start Tuesday's tilt against the Twins. The Indians will need to make another roster move to make room for Tomlin on the active roster. Francona said the team might wait until Tuesday to finalize that decision. "We're going to have to walk through it daily, probably for a while, to see what fits and what doesn't fit. We can only have 25. We'll see."
Francona said Giambi is healthy enough to hit, but isn't sure "if he can do the rest of it, to the point where it's a little bit iffy." Giambi told cleveland.com on Monday that he was capable of pinch-hitting on Monday.
Francona met with Giambi on Monday and said the veteran was more than willing to go on the DL. "He continues to amaze me with his willingness to see past himself, which amazes me."
Francona was pleased with the Indians' starting pitching over the weekend. Danny Salazar, Justin Masterson and Corey Kluber allowed a combined four earned runs over 20 1/3 innings. "It certainly makes the game seem more winnable, even when your offense is inconsistent. When your pitcher is putting up zeroes and you get in the fifth or sixth inning and you're within range or you're up a couple as opposed to maybe scoring late and saying, 'Good effort,' even though you came up short -- you can win 9-8 sometimes, but not a lot. That's a hard way to win."
Michael Bourn is feeling better and could be close to a return to the lineup. Francona said the center fielder, who is battling tightness in his pesky left hamstring, would "go hard" on the treadmill today.
CLEVELAND, Ohio -- The Indians placed 43-year-old designated hitter Jason Giambi on the 15-day disabled list on Monday. Giambi exited Saturday's affair with a right calf strain.
Giambi's relocation to the DL cleared a spot for catcher Yan Gomes to return from the paternity list. Gomes missed two games following the birth of his daughter, Brooklyn Mae.
Here are other news and notes stemming from manager Terry Francona's meeting with the media on Monday afternoon.
Josh Tomlin will start Tuesday's tilt against the Twins. The Indians will need to make another roster move to make room for Tomlin on the active roster. Francona said the team might wait until Tuesday to finalize that decision. "We're going to have to walk through it daily, probably for a while, to see what fits and what doesn't fit. We can only have 25. We'll see."
Francona said Giambi is healthy enough to hit, but isn't sure "if he can do the rest of it, to the point where it's a little bit iffy." Giambi told cleveland.com on Monday that he was capable of pinch-hitting on Monday.
Francona met with Giambi on Monday and said the veteran was more than willing to go on the DL. "He continues to amaze me with his willingness to see past himself, which amazes me."
Francona was pleased with the Indians' starting pitching over the weekend. Danny Salazar, Justin Masterson and Corey Kluber allowed a combined four earned runs over 20 1/3 innings. "It certainly makes the game seem more winnable, even when your offense is inconsistent. When your pitcher is putting up zeroes and you get in the fifth or sixth inning and you're within range or you're up a couple as opposed to maybe scoring late and saying, 'Good effort,' even though you came up short -- you can win 9-8 sometimes, but not a lot. That's a hard way to win."
Michael Bourn is feeling better and could be close to a return to the lineup. Francona said the center fielder, who is battling tightness in his pesky left hamstring, would "go hard" on the treadmill today.
Re: Articles
4582Tribe Happenings: Indians lackluster defense in April hurt them
The Indians defense was as poor as it has ever been in April. (Photo: AP)
By Tony Lastoria
May 5, 2014
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Some news, notes and thoughts from my Indians notebook…
A disastrous April
We are now a few days into May, and while April is thankfully in the review mirror, I just wanted to share some numbers to show just how bad the Indians were in April and how fortunate they were to even go 11-17 for the month.
Last year the Indians went 11-13 in April, an almost equally bad start, but there were more promising signs. Check out the stats with the offense for April in each year:
The numbers speak for themselves, but the Indians start offensively has been one of the big reasons for their early season struggles. Their inability to score runs this past April compared to last April is because they have been unable to hit for power and hit the home run something they lived on early last season. They hit 36 homers last April (1.5 HR/G) which was second best in all of baseball but only hit 19 homers this April (0.7 HR/G) which was 22nd in the league.
Now, yes, Mark Reynolds was a big reason for the big power numbers last April as he hit eight of them, but they had a pretty balanced attack from the rest of the lineup as Carlos Santana had five, Ryan Raburn had four, Lonnie Chisenhall had three and seven other players each had two. This April the leader in home runs was Michael Brantley and the only other multi-homer efforts came from Jason Kipnis (3), Yan Gomes (3), Carlos Santana (3),Nick Swisher (2) and David Murphy (2).
The Indians actually did an okay job of getting on base, but their station to station lineup along with a significant drop in power has meant they have often had to rely on three hits an inning to score even just one run. Considering they only hit .232 for the month you can see why it has been tough to string hits together and have a rally so they can score more runs.
While the Indians struggled at the plate they actually struggled even more in the field. They were one of the worst fielding teams in baseball in April, though that should not come as much of a surpruse as the defensive issues continue to be a problem that has plagued them the last few seasons. There are no monthly defensive splits (at least not that I am aware of), so I have compiled the Indians numbers to date and extrapolated them over a full 162 game season in order to compare them with their 2013 defensive numbers.
This season they have 30 errors (2nd most in MLB) in 31 games which at this pace works out to 157 errors over a 162 game season. Last season they had 98 errors all season which was 11th most in MLB, so they are on pace to shatter that mark with almost 60 more errors this season. On top of that, the Indians have a -12.0 defensive runs saved mark after 31 games (27th in MLB) and projects to -62.7 runs saved for the season. Last year they had a -41.1 defensive runs saved number (27th in MLB) – so they are on pace to blow that poor mark out of the water as well.
Now, obviously some of these defensive issues will normalize over the course of the year, but the early season issues with the defense has really hurt the Indians and put a lot of extra strain on the pitching staff and had a big hand in several losses. For as inconsistent as some of the pitchers in the starting rotation were for the month, it actually performed as good or better than it did last April and the pitching staff as a whole was better thanks to a good showing from the bullpen:
This past April the Indians struck out an additional batter per nine innings, saw a significant improvement in their fielding independent pitching line and a huge jump in their WAR number for the month compared to last April. Rating the pitching based entirely on WAR and FIP alone, the Indians were 7th best in all of MLB in both categories which shows that the pitching was more than adequate for the month. While the starting pitching needs to be more consistent one through five in the rotation, it was the combination of an atrocious defense and pop gun offense which lead to their April demise and poor record. The pitching is also what gives optimisim that the Indians can turn their record around rather quickly.
So far three games into May the defense is still awful, but the offense has started to pick up and the pitching continues to be very good. Meatloaf once sang that "two out of three ain’t bad" and if the Indians continue to get good showings from two of the three main components of the team then they could be in store for a good bounce back soon.
Defensive shortcomings continued
To add to what was noted above about the defense, the Indians really have few alternatives at the moment to correct the issue.
Right now they are locked into a starting outfield of Michael Brantley, Michael Bourn and David Murphy, though they could possibly platoon Murphy more down the road if they really wanted to. The outfield defense has not been poor, but it has not been great either. Bourn has underwhelmed and Brantley and Murphy are just solid, unspectacular defenders. The Indians have a couple of promising outfield options in the minors but right now – barring injury – this is the regular outfield lineup that they will go with for the long haul at least for the rest of this season.
The infield defense has been where the Indians have really struggled. While everyone was worried about how Carlos Santana would handle playing third base, he has actually performed right around league average with a 0.0 defensive runs saved and -4.7 UZR/150. And for as much grief as Asdrubal Cabrera gets, his 1.3 defensive runs saved and -0.8 UZR/150 are in the upper half of shortstops in the league. The problem has been the right side of the infield as Jason Kipnis has been the worst defensive second baseman in baseball with a -4.0 defensive runs saved and -25.3 UZR/150 and Nick Swisher has been the worst defensive first baseman in baseball with a -5.9 defensive runs saved and -26.2 UZR/150.
With a well below average defensive combination of Kipnis-Swisher on the right side of the infield and an average to below average combination of Santana-Cabrera (and Lonnie Chisenhall) on the left side, that’s a poor way to support a starting pitching staff that has three horses in the rotation who are groundball pitchers.
The problem here is the Indians are kind of boxed in once again and can’t really do anything to change the performance. They have to hope the current players perform more to their career norms – though even those aren’t that great either. They are not going to remove Kipnis from second base and for the time being Swisher, Cabrera and Santana/Chisenhall are locked into their positions. They are committed to all of these players save for Cabrera beyond this season, so this may be a continual problem for them going forward.
The hope is that when Francisco Lindor takes over at shortstop and Yan Gomes gets back to playing defense like the Indians know he can that the defense will be much improved. It also bears watching to see how Jose Ramirezperforms at second base in Kipnis’ absence. Ramirez is a plus defender at second base and it will be interesting to see how he rates out for May assuming Kipnis is not back until the end of the month or beginning of June. If Ramirez shines then the Pandora’s Box may have been opened on a potential move of Kipnis to the outfield sometime down the road – though that is extremely premature at this point and even if they did consider such a change it probably would not happen until after this season.
Tomlin gets the call
The Indians could really not go wrong with whatever decision they made in choosing between Josh Tomlin andTrevor Bauer to replace Carlos Carrasco in the starting rotation. In the end they sided with Tomlin and he will make his season debut with the Indians on Tuesday night.
Tomlin, 29, was having an exceptional season at Triple-A Columbus where in five starts he was 2-1 with a 2.06 ERA and in 35.0 innings had allowed 22 hits, 9 walks and had 28 strikeouts. His last two starts were fantastic as he threw a combined 17.0 scoreless innings and allowed 9 hits, no walks and had 16 strikeouts. That ability to perform so well, pitch deep into games and dominate was enough for the Indians to side with him. It also did not hurt that he finished second in the competition this spring for the fifth starter’s spot to Carrasco, so the Indians are also probably extending a courtesy to him in that regard.
Tomlin has Major League experience and actually has enjoyed some success when he has been 100% healthy. His issues at the Major League level mostly stem from him pitching hurt, something he did for a lot of 2012 and at the tail end of 2011 which skew his overall numbers. The Indians want innings and someone who they can rely on to compete in the fifth spot in the rotation and are showing a lot of faith that Tomlin can be that guy for them.
It will be interesting to see how Tomlin does in Cleveland. He is more of a fly ball pitcher so the Indians below average defensive infield should not affect him as much as the other starters, but he also has average stuff and will really need to be on his A-game with the command and location of his entire arsenal to have consistent success. He also had an extremely low .211 BABIP and had a very high success rate of stranding runners (85.8%) at Columbus – not to mention a 3.67 FIP to boot – so it will be interesting to see how that performance translates to the big leagues.
As for Bauer, well, he will just need to continue pitching lights out at Columbus. Even in the wake of learning he was not getting the call up to Cleveland he pitched seven shutout innings on Saturday, so he definitely looks like he is still locked in with his focus - and he should be with Danny Salazar continuing to struggle with his consistency and unable to pitch deep into games. If Bauer continues to pitch as he has and Salazar slips up in his next one or two outings, we might see another change to the rotation this month.
Kluber the Magnificent
Wow, Corey Kluber is turning into something special. After a breakthrough performance last season when he went 11-5 with a 3.85 ERA (3.30 FIP) and 8.3 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9, he is blowing those numbers out of the water this season and proving all of the experts right who predicted that last season was only the beginning to a very promising career.
Kluber, 28, is 2-3 with a 3.60 ERA in seven starts this season, but has a 9.6 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and 2.73 FIP. His record-breaking outing on Sunday against the White Sox was ruined thanks to John Axford serving up a three-run homer in the ninth inning, but it still does not take away from how exceptional of an outing it was. In 8.0 innings he allowed just 3 hits, 2 walks and had a career-high 13 strikeouts.
The outing was right in line with his career best outing just two starts ago when he pitched a nine-inning complete game against the Royals and allowed an unearned run on 4 hits, no walks and had 11 strikeouts. His 13 strikeouts on Sunday tied him with C.C. Sabathia, Chuck Finley and Dave Burba for the club record for strikeouts in a game by an Indians pitcher at Progressive Field. His seven consecutive strikeouts from innings three through five set a club record, beating the previous mark of six held by Bob Feller, Bartolo Colon, Chuck Finley and Mitch Talbot. With his 11 strikeout performance against the Royals and 13 strikeout performance against the White Sox he became the first Indians pitcher to strikeout 11 or more batters in consecutive home starts since Dennis Eckersley on August 13 and 23 in 1976.
Kluber is emerging into a James Shields-like horse in the rotation and may now be the Indians ace in the present and future. His emergence last season was a big reason for the Indians success as a team and will be the same this season and beyond if the Indians envision any thoughts about making it to the postseason.
Parting shots
Catcher George Kottaras had a great season debut for the Indians on Sunday hitting solo home runs in his first two at bats of the season. He is the first Indians batter to homer in his first plate appearance with the club since Kevin Kouzmanoff on September 2, 2006 at Texas, and is the first Indians player in club history to hit a home run in each of his first two career plate appearances with the club. He is with the team while Yan Gomes is away on paternity leave, but that kind of showing could be enough to make the Indians rethink things with the bench when Gomes comes back. It also shows how meaningless his .080 batting average was in 28 minor league at bats at Triple-A Columbus. … With Michael Bourn ailing from another hamstring injury - though not on the disabled list or expected to go on it - the Indians have temporarily called up Nyjer Morgan. In his first game back with the club he racked up two hits and is hitting .357 in limited time (28 at bats).
Follow Tony and the Indians Baseball Insider on Twitter @TonyIBI. Also, his new book the 2014 Cleveland Indians Baseball Insider which profiles the Indians' Top 100 Prospects and more is available for sale.
By Tony Lastoria
May 5, 2014
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Some news, notes and thoughts from my Indians notebook…
A disastrous April
We are now a few days into May, and while April is thankfully in the review mirror, I just wanted to share some numbers to show just how bad the Indians were in April and how fortunate they were to even go 11-17 for the month.
Last year the Indians went 11-13 in April, an almost equally bad start, but there were more promising signs. Check out the stats with the offense for April in each year:
Code: Select all
Runs/Game AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO K/game
2013 5.0 .265 .333 .465 .798 .200 8.3
2014 3.9 .232 .313 .356 .669 .124 6.6
Change -1.1 -.033 -.020 -.109 -.129 -.076 +1.7
Now, yes, Mark Reynolds was a big reason for the big power numbers last April as he hit eight of them, but they had a pretty balanced attack from the rest of the lineup as Carlos Santana had five, Ryan Raburn had four, Lonnie Chisenhall had three and seven other players each had two. This April the leader in home runs was Michael Brantley and the only other multi-homer efforts came from Jason Kipnis (3), Yan Gomes (3), Carlos Santana (3),Nick Swisher (2) and David Murphy (2).
The Indians actually did an okay job of getting on base, but their station to station lineup along with a significant drop in power has meant they have often had to rely on three hits an inning to score even just one run. Considering they only hit .232 for the month you can see why it has been tough to string hits together and have a rally so they can score more runs.
While the Indians struggled at the plate they actually struggled even more in the field. They were one of the worst fielding teams in baseball in April, though that should not come as much of a surpruse as the defensive issues continue to be a problem that has plagued them the last few seasons. There are no monthly defensive splits (at least not that I am aware of), so I have compiled the Indians numbers to date and extrapolated them over a full 162 game season in order to compare them with their 2013 defensive numbers.
This season they have 30 errors (2nd most in MLB) in 31 games which at this pace works out to 157 errors over a 162 game season. Last season they had 98 errors all season which was 11th most in MLB, so they are on pace to shatter that mark with almost 60 more errors this season. On top of that, the Indians have a -12.0 defensive runs saved mark after 31 games (27th in MLB) and projects to -62.7 runs saved for the season. Last year they had a -41.1 defensive runs saved number (27th in MLB) – so they are on pace to blow that poor mark out of the water as well.
Now, obviously some of these defensive issues will normalize over the course of the year, but the early season issues with the defense has really hurt the Indians and put a lot of extra strain on the pitching staff and had a big hand in several losses. For as inconsistent as some of the pitchers in the starting rotation were for the month, it actually performed as good or better than it did last April and the pitching staff as a whole was better thanks to a good showing from the bullpen:
Code: Select all
ERA FIP xFIP GB% K/9 BB/9 WAR
2013 4.27 4.61 4.10 42.4% 8.1 3.7 0.6
2014 4.28 3.46 3.75 47.7% 9.1 3.7 3.8
Change -0.01 +1.15 +.035 +5.3% +1.0 NC +3.2
This past April the Indians struck out an additional batter per nine innings, saw a significant improvement in their fielding independent pitching line and a huge jump in their WAR number for the month compared to last April. Rating the pitching based entirely on WAR and FIP alone, the Indians were 7th best in all of MLB in both categories which shows that the pitching was more than adequate for the month. While the starting pitching needs to be more consistent one through five in the rotation, it was the combination of an atrocious defense and pop gun offense which lead to their April demise and poor record. The pitching is also what gives optimisim that the Indians can turn their record around rather quickly.
So far three games into May the defense is still awful, but the offense has started to pick up and the pitching continues to be very good. Meatloaf once sang that "two out of three ain’t bad" and if the Indians continue to get good showings from two of the three main components of the team then they could be in store for a good bounce back soon.
Defensive shortcomings continued
To add to what was noted above about the defense, the Indians really have few alternatives at the moment to correct the issue.
Right now they are locked into a starting outfield of Michael Brantley, Michael Bourn and David Murphy, though they could possibly platoon Murphy more down the road if they really wanted to. The outfield defense has not been poor, but it has not been great either. Bourn has underwhelmed and Brantley and Murphy are just solid, unspectacular defenders. The Indians have a couple of promising outfield options in the minors but right now – barring injury – this is the regular outfield lineup that they will go with for the long haul at least for the rest of this season.
The infield defense has been where the Indians have really struggled. While everyone was worried about how Carlos Santana would handle playing third base, he has actually performed right around league average with a 0.0 defensive runs saved and -4.7 UZR/150. And for as much grief as Asdrubal Cabrera gets, his 1.3 defensive runs saved and -0.8 UZR/150 are in the upper half of shortstops in the league. The problem has been the right side of the infield as Jason Kipnis has been the worst defensive second baseman in baseball with a -4.0 defensive runs saved and -25.3 UZR/150 and Nick Swisher has been the worst defensive first baseman in baseball with a -5.9 defensive runs saved and -26.2 UZR/150.
With a well below average defensive combination of Kipnis-Swisher on the right side of the infield and an average to below average combination of Santana-Cabrera (and Lonnie Chisenhall) on the left side, that’s a poor way to support a starting pitching staff that has three horses in the rotation who are groundball pitchers.
The problem here is the Indians are kind of boxed in once again and can’t really do anything to change the performance. They have to hope the current players perform more to their career norms – though even those aren’t that great either. They are not going to remove Kipnis from second base and for the time being Swisher, Cabrera and Santana/Chisenhall are locked into their positions. They are committed to all of these players save for Cabrera beyond this season, so this may be a continual problem for them going forward.
The hope is that when Francisco Lindor takes over at shortstop and Yan Gomes gets back to playing defense like the Indians know he can that the defense will be much improved. It also bears watching to see how Jose Ramirezperforms at second base in Kipnis’ absence. Ramirez is a plus defender at second base and it will be interesting to see how he rates out for May assuming Kipnis is not back until the end of the month or beginning of June. If Ramirez shines then the Pandora’s Box may have been opened on a potential move of Kipnis to the outfield sometime down the road – though that is extremely premature at this point and even if they did consider such a change it probably would not happen until after this season.
Tomlin gets the call
The Indians could really not go wrong with whatever decision they made in choosing between Josh Tomlin andTrevor Bauer to replace Carlos Carrasco in the starting rotation. In the end they sided with Tomlin and he will make his season debut with the Indians on Tuesday night.
Tomlin, 29, was having an exceptional season at Triple-A Columbus where in five starts he was 2-1 with a 2.06 ERA and in 35.0 innings had allowed 22 hits, 9 walks and had 28 strikeouts. His last two starts were fantastic as he threw a combined 17.0 scoreless innings and allowed 9 hits, no walks and had 16 strikeouts. That ability to perform so well, pitch deep into games and dominate was enough for the Indians to side with him. It also did not hurt that he finished second in the competition this spring for the fifth starter’s spot to Carrasco, so the Indians are also probably extending a courtesy to him in that regard.
Tomlin has Major League experience and actually has enjoyed some success when he has been 100% healthy. His issues at the Major League level mostly stem from him pitching hurt, something he did for a lot of 2012 and at the tail end of 2011 which skew his overall numbers. The Indians want innings and someone who they can rely on to compete in the fifth spot in the rotation and are showing a lot of faith that Tomlin can be that guy for them.
It will be interesting to see how Tomlin does in Cleveland. He is more of a fly ball pitcher so the Indians below average defensive infield should not affect him as much as the other starters, but he also has average stuff and will really need to be on his A-game with the command and location of his entire arsenal to have consistent success. He also had an extremely low .211 BABIP and had a very high success rate of stranding runners (85.8%) at Columbus – not to mention a 3.67 FIP to boot – so it will be interesting to see how that performance translates to the big leagues.
As for Bauer, well, he will just need to continue pitching lights out at Columbus. Even in the wake of learning he was not getting the call up to Cleveland he pitched seven shutout innings on Saturday, so he definitely looks like he is still locked in with his focus - and he should be with Danny Salazar continuing to struggle with his consistency and unable to pitch deep into games. If Bauer continues to pitch as he has and Salazar slips up in his next one or two outings, we might see another change to the rotation this month.
Kluber the Magnificent
Wow, Corey Kluber is turning into something special. After a breakthrough performance last season when he went 11-5 with a 3.85 ERA (3.30 FIP) and 8.3 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9, he is blowing those numbers out of the water this season and proving all of the experts right who predicted that last season was only the beginning to a very promising career.
Kluber, 28, is 2-3 with a 3.60 ERA in seven starts this season, but has a 9.6 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and 2.73 FIP. His record-breaking outing on Sunday against the White Sox was ruined thanks to John Axford serving up a three-run homer in the ninth inning, but it still does not take away from how exceptional of an outing it was. In 8.0 innings he allowed just 3 hits, 2 walks and had a career-high 13 strikeouts.
The outing was right in line with his career best outing just two starts ago when he pitched a nine-inning complete game against the Royals and allowed an unearned run on 4 hits, no walks and had 11 strikeouts. His 13 strikeouts on Sunday tied him with C.C. Sabathia, Chuck Finley and Dave Burba for the club record for strikeouts in a game by an Indians pitcher at Progressive Field. His seven consecutive strikeouts from innings three through five set a club record, beating the previous mark of six held by Bob Feller, Bartolo Colon, Chuck Finley and Mitch Talbot. With his 11 strikeout performance against the Royals and 13 strikeout performance against the White Sox he became the first Indians pitcher to strikeout 11 or more batters in consecutive home starts since Dennis Eckersley on August 13 and 23 in 1976.
Kluber is emerging into a James Shields-like horse in the rotation and may now be the Indians ace in the present and future. His emergence last season was a big reason for the Indians success as a team and will be the same this season and beyond if the Indians envision any thoughts about making it to the postseason.
Parting shots
Catcher George Kottaras had a great season debut for the Indians on Sunday hitting solo home runs in his first two at bats of the season. He is the first Indians batter to homer in his first plate appearance with the club since Kevin Kouzmanoff on September 2, 2006 at Texas, and is the first Indians player in club history to hit a home run in each of his first two career plate appearances with the club. He is with the team while Yan Gomes is away on paternity leave, but that kind of showing could be enough to make the Indians rethink things with the bench when Gomes comes back. It also shows how meaningless his .080 batting average was in 28 minor league at bats at Triple-A Columbus. … With Michael Bourn ailing from another hamstring injury - though not on the disabled list or expected to go on it - the Indians have temporarily called up Nyjer Morgan. In his first game back with the club he racked up two hits and is hitting .357 in limited time (28 at bats).
Follow Tony and the Indians Baseball Insider on Twitter @TonyIBI. Also, his new book the 2014 Cleveland Indians Baseball Insider which profiles the Indians' Top 100 Prospects and more is available for sale.
“Every day is a new opportunity. You can build on yesterday's success or put its failures behind and start over again. That's the way life is, with a new game every day, and that's the way baseball is.”
-- Bob Feller
-- Bob Feller
Re: Articles
4583Francona met with Giambi on Monday and said the veteran was more than willing to go on the DL. "He continues to amaze me with his willingness to see past himself, which amazes me."
Hasn't had a hit this year with the big club (10 ABs isn't much of a sample I admit) nor on his rehab assignments. Jason is nearing the end of the line and he obviously realizes it.
Re: Articles
4585Absolutely.
And some of the things he did last year only adds to his credibility with the young regulars.
And some of the things he did last year only adds to his credibility with the young regulars.
"I've suffered a great many tragedies in my life....most of them never happened". Mark Twain
Re: Articles
4587
Tribe Happenings: Bourn is not living up to expectations
By Tony Lastoria
May 12, 2014
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Regretting Bourn
We are just about a quarter of the way into year two of the Michael Bourn era in Cleveland. When he signed a four year $48 million deal with the Indians in February of 2013 fans were very excited about the signing and felt that the Indians had filled center field and the leadoff spot in the order with a very capable player for a long time.
The hope was that Bourn would bring Gold Glove caliber defense to Cleveland and help forge their outfield into one of the best defensive units in baseball. There was also hope that he would be a top of the order catalyst getting on base and more importantly being a nuisance and impact player once on the bases by stealing lots of bases and forcing pitchers to focus more on him which would lead to more fastballs to the hitters behind him in order to help them have more success as well.
But so far things have not worked out as hoped.
This season Bourn is hitting .244 with 0 HR, 7 RBI and .614 OPS in 18 games. He has just two stolen bases, a .268 on-base percentage and has a rather poor 3-22 walk to strikeout ratio. When combined with his totals from last season, he is hitting .260 with 6 HR, 57 RBI and .668 OPS in 148 games with the Indians, 43-154 walk to strikeout ratio, 25 stolen bases and .310 on-base percentage. For you sabermetric fans out there he has a 91 OPS+ and 1.8 WAR over those 148 games.
I don’t think when the Indians doled out $48 million in guaranteed money that they envisioned paying a player a lot of money to be a league average or even slightly below average player – but that is pretty much what Bourn has been. A .310 on-base percentage is poor for any player - let alone a leadoff hitter, and when you add in a 23.4% strikeout rate and a lack of impact on the basepaths, you come away with a player who has underwhelmed immensely to date.
Yes, Nick Swisher also signed a big four year $56 million deal and has disappointed as well, but he was brought in for different reasons. He wasn’t brought in to play defense, steal bases and be a firestarter, he was brought in to be a leader and provide a professional approach and some pop to the lineup – something he did for the most part last season though has not done this season.
Both have been disappointments in their own right, but Bourn has been the bigger disappointment because his impact was to be made less intangibly like Swisher but more tangibly with being a shutdown defensive outfielder, impact runner and good leadoff hitter. He has struggled in all three of those areas so far with the Indians and there is no sign of his struggles coming to an end.
Some of the struggles are injury-related as Bourn this season is dealing with a chronic left hamstring injury which cropped up at the end of last season. The injury required offseason surgery and has since forced him to miss time on two separate occasions this season. When you are a guy who relies on your legs an ongoing hamstring issue such as this no doubt will affect your play, though his defense and running ability were clearly an issue last season even before the injury.
Bottom line, the Indians paid Bourn $48 million not to be a .300 hitter or big power hitter, but to be an above average to elite player with his defense and running ability at the top of a lineup and to date he has failed to live up to those expectations. Now with lingering hamstring issues you have to wonder if at 31 years of age if he may have already peaked as a player and is already in decline.
If Bourn is what he is right now and maintains this kind of inconsistent performance this season, the Indians are in a tough spot. They are still on the hook for $27.5 million in salary for the next two seasons beyond this one, and with good health in 2016 his $12 million option for 2017 could easily vest and put them on the hook for about $40 million total from 2015-2017. That’s a lot of money to dole out to an average player while a team is trying to contend with a limited payroll. I mean, $12 million in one season is equal to about one-sixth or one-fifth of the team payroll, so it is a significant monetary issue going forward if his subpar play continues.
Having a player like Bourn struggling and eating up payroll could prevent the Indians from resigning someone like Justin Masterson or going out and finding a bat or two in free agency or on the trade market to help add some thump to the lineup. That’s $12-15 million they simply are unable to allocate to another area of the team.
Bourn’s legs have betrayed him this season and might be a problem going forward. Once he gets healthy it might be wise of the Indians to consider moving him if the right deal comes about, although obviously other teams may have the same concerns at this point as well. Either way, his salary is misspent money and the Indians need to get out from under it sooner rather than later. Otherwise, they could be on the verge of another Travis Hafner-like albatross eating up a large chunk of the payroll and having little if any impact on the quality of play on the field and in the standings.
Bourn vs. Morgan
Consider for a moment that Nyjer Morgan is earning $875,000 from the Indians this season. They also control him after this season as he will not have enough service time to earn free agency, so he is in the 2015 mix as long as the Indians offer him arbitration at the end of the season and don’t trade/release him before that. Granted the sample size is still small, he is doing everything the Indians hoped Bourn would do for them when they signed him.
Morgan has played in four less games than Bourn and has 30 less plate appearances, but is hitting .341 with 1 HR, 6 RBI and .868 OPS this season. He also has three stolen bases, a .429 on-base percentage and a nice 7-6 walk to strikeout ratio. Morgan probably will not maintain that kind of good fortune over the course of the season, but over his career he has proven to be a better hitter than Bourn:
Code: Select all
PA AVG OBP SLG OPS BB% K% SB OPS+ wRC+ WAR
Michael Bourn 4023 .270 .334 .364 .698 8.4% 20.7% 301 90 92 21.4
Njyer Morgan 2206 .282 .343 .366 .708 6.6% 16.6% 120 91 93 11.4
This disparity in value between Bourn and Morgan and the monetary compensation they each have received may be an unfortunate byproduct of the use of advanced stats. From a scouting perspective, there is little difference between both as hitters - in fact, Morgan grades out slightly better. Defensively, Bourn is viewed the better defender, but the gap between the two is not so large that it makes one over 12 times more valuable in terms of money. Even so, while Morgan is no Gold Glover, he at worst is a solid if not slightly plus defender.
But a lot of Bourne's “WAR” value has been inflated substantially because of the advanced defensive metrics used in baseball which have really favored him greatly. As a result, he had a career year in his free agent year in 2012 as a six-win player and was paid handsomely as a result.
I won’t get into the nuts and bolts of the defensive metrics, but after the 2012 season Bourn had a 25.6 defensive runs saved rating which was best in all of baseball and 16 points higher than Denard Span who was second in baseball with a 9.5 defensive runs saved rating. That defensive rating along with a solid season at the plate inflated his value tremendously and is why he earned so much as a free agent. I've watched Bourn play a lot of games the last year-plus and I just fail to see how he was almost three times the defensive player - according to the metrics - than the next best center fielder in baseball that season.
While the qualifying offer he had placed on him no doubt affected his free agent possibilities, there were obviously some skeptics and for very good reason. The year before in 2011 he had a -4.0 defensive runs saved rating – though in fairness he had a 21.8 defensive runs saved rating in 2010 and 12.4 defensive runs saved rating in 2009. Last season with the Indians he had 1.2 defensive runs saved rating.
This is yet more proof to the argument that defensive stats are still very tough to quantity and have to be taken with a large grain of salt. Teams still need to rely mostly on scouting intel and what their eyes are telling them about a player's defense since the stats still are hard to trust. They no doubt help, but they obviously are much more volatile than pitching and hitting stats. While we want to paint a holistic view of a player when evaluating them and WAR at the moment is considered to be such a stat which does it best, I am just not sure, at least to me, how much I can value truly value WAR when it includes those defensive metrics in its calculation. Perhaps this is just a case of Bourn proving to be an outlier, something that happens in most any set of data.
From a scouting perspective it is clear as day that Bourn is not an elite center fielder – which is essentially what the numbers said after the 2012 season and ultimately what the Indians paid him to be. He’s an above average at best defensive center fielder – one I would argue is much closer to being merely an average defender than he is an elite defender.
Meanwhile you have a guy in Morgan who continues to be a spark for this team and doing everything the Indians hoped Bourn would provide – and at 1/15th or so the cost. I think at this point Morgan has earned his keep with the Indians and should remain on the roster. How they mix him into things remains to be seen, but for a team in search of someone or something to ignite an offense which has been in a full season slumber, he has a lot of value to them in the short term.
And who knows, if Morgan keeps this up and Bourn continues to struggle with injuries and he remains inconsistent with his play, perhaps Morgan is a longer term option than originally hoped. If a team comes calling or there is any interest in Bourn, the Indians should strike while they can to get out from under his deal. Hopefully Bourn can find a way to get on track and begin playing the way he is expected to and paid to do so that they can consider all possibilities if that time comes.
Tomlin the Great
Right-handed starting pitcher Josh Tomlin is off to one heck of a start this season. Called upon to replace the inconsistent Carlos Carrasco as the fifth starter in the Indians rotation, Tomlin has since come up and thrown two dandy outings putting up a quality start in each one. In his two starts he is 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA, and in 12.2 innings has allowed 10 hits, 2 homers, 1 walk and has 6 strikeouts.
Tomlin, 29, has done exactly what the Indians wanted from their fifth starter, which is go out and throw strikes, compete and give the team a chance to win every time out. As usual, his home run tendencies are high, but he does such a good job of limiting traffic on the bases that often times they are of the solo variety and don’t hurt him much.
More importantly, since Tomlin has stepped into the rotation the Indians rotation as a whole has been pitching lights out and found their stride. Corey Kluber, Zach McAllister and Justin Masterson continue to lead the staff and are good to outstanding seemingly every time out, and the addition of Tomlin has brought consistency to the other two spots in the rotation as he has replaced the struggling Carrasco and inadvertently may have pressured Danny Salazar into getting his act in gear since he knows he is next in line to be replaced.
Now, the Indians have a starter going out there every day and competing and giving them a chance to win, which even with a struggling offense and defense is a great asset to have and will eventually pay off for them with more wins than losses in the standings. The name of the game is starting pitching, and when you have it you always have a chance to win even if the rest of the roster has its problems.
Closer change
The Indians moved John Axford out of the closers role this weekend. The change came about after a near disastrous outing on Friday which almost ruined another Indians victory. Considering that up to that point the only games the Indians had lost in eight games were the two Axford blew, his part in almost a third blown win in a week was enough to make the Indians rethink things about his role in the short term. I applaud their proactive approach to this issue.
Axford will now pitch in middle relief in order to help him work on some mechanical adjustments to help him more consistently throw strikes so he can work ahead and stay ahead of hitters. For as powerful as his fastball is and as impressive a curveball as he throws, his inability to consistently throw them for strikes is taking away from his overall effectiveness. He has an 8.0 BB/9 which is absolutely unacceptable for a closer or any relief role for that matter and is a disaster waiting to happen. We saw the tremors last week with the two blown wins and one almost blown win, so they made the change before disaster truly struck.
This is not a kneejerk reaction to one bad week either as Axford was rather shaky in April as well. Yes, he had a 2.79 ERA and eight saves for the month, but the walks were high and you could see the problems brewing and he was very fortunate to escape some of those outings without a blown save.
The Indians will now go with a bullpen by committee approach and use Marc Rzepczynski, Cody Allen, Bryan Shaw and Scott Atchison as needed to close out games. Righty C.C. Lee could also enter into that mix as well. Manager Terry Francona is not going to pigeon-hole anyone to a specific ninth inning only role, something closers are often limited to. He is right to keep his best relievers available to use at any time from the seventh inning on.
Most would assume Allen just be the closer, but he is too valuable to just lock into a ninth inning role, especially since games are more often won or lost in the seventh and eighth innings. It is why your best reliever should not be your closer because you have the option to match them up and bring them into any situation in the seventh and eighth inning rather than hope lesser relievers can hold down the fort so you have a lead going into the ninth inning to finally use your best reliever.
The Indians say this is a temporary change, but I find it hard to believe that they can trust Axford in the role again unless he has an extended showing of success and much improved command pitching in middle relief. It also could be the beginning of the end of him as an Indian because if his struggles with throwing consistent strikes continue in a more limited role, it would not be a surprise to see him released later in the season. So it looks like it is closer by committee for a good bit.
Apologies to Chisenhall
Third baseman Lonnie Chisenhall has done a lot so far this season to shut a lot of his naysayers up – including yours truly. While I never gave up on his potential, I was one who believed he might be best served to open the season at Triple-A Columbus so he can continue to work on improving his defense and getting more consistent with his bat – particularly against left-handed pitching.
So far I couldn’t be more happy to be wrong.
Chisenhall, 25, is having a good season hitting .338 with 0 HR, 2 RBI and 841 OPS in 26 games. Yes, he has shown little power with no homers (.108 ISO) and his 4.8% walk rate is atrocious. And yes, his .439 BABIP suggest he’s been extremely lucky and the numbers are probably going to dip significantly at some point. But he’s been one of the few bright spots offensively in the early going for a team starved for offense and the hope is that this has been the confidence builder he has lacked which puts him over the hump.
Chisenhall’s defense still leaves a lot to be desired, but he looks to have found a niche for himself as at least a good platoon player who exclusively faces right-handed pitching. He lacks much versatility, so the Indians have been working on him at first base and he got his first opportunity there over the weekend in Tampa. Because of his underrated athleticism I wouldn’t be surprised if the Indians also try him out in the outfield at some point to really add to his versatility and usefulness as a specialist against right-handed pitching.
Parting shots
Catcher George Kottaras has cleared waivers but has not yet decided on whether to decline or accept an outright assignment to Triple-A Columbus. He has 72 hours to decide. It should be noted if he accepts that he has no opt out and could remain in Columbus all year. … Infielder Elliot Johnson cleared waivers last week and accepted his outright assignment to Triple-A Columbus and made his debut with them on Sunday. … Second baseman Jason Kipnis is progressing well in his rehab and on schedule for a return late this month or in early June. He is symptom free and no longer feels discomfort from the oblique injury and this weekend started doing dry swings with a bat and should incorporate contact-oriented swinging drills into the mix later this week.
“Every day is a new opportunity. You can build on yesterday's success or put its failures behind and start over again. That's the way life is, with a new game every day, and that's the way baseball is.”
-- Bob Feller
-- Bob Feller
Re: Articles
4588Sorry Tony, but I make no distinctions especially for the money these guys are making. So far, both suck equally and neither are helping this team win ballgames. You can include Carlos in the mix.Yes, Nick Swisher also signed a big four year $56 million deal and has disappointed as well, but he was brought in for different reasons. He wasn’t brought in to play defense, steal bases and be a firestarter, he was brought in to be a leader and provide a professional approach and some pop to the lineup – something he did for the most part last season though has not done this season.
“Every day is a new opportunity. You can build on yesterday's success or put its failures behind and start over again. That's the way life is, with a new game every day, and that's the way baseball is.”
-- Bob Feller
-- Bob Feller
Re: Articles
4589http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/w ... -day-2014/
Speedy Jose Ramirez made it up to Cleveland last year as a September call-up. Back in Triple-A, he still has some work to do before he’s ready to be in Cleveland for good, but as a 21-year-old, he has plenty of time.
“Every day is a new opportunity. You can build on yesterday's success or put its failures behind and start over again. That's the way life is, with a new game every day, and that's the way baseball is.”
-- Bob Feller
-- Bob Feller
Re: Articles
4590Nyjer Morgan deserves playing time. My guess, at least 4-5 games a week. Let Bourn play his way back into the lineup.
“Every day is a new opportunity. You can build on yesterday's success or put its failures behind and start over again. That's the way life is, with a new game every day, and that's the way baseball is.”
-- Bob Feller
-- Bob Feller